G1 Victoria Derby Day - 04.11.2017

Last week will be hard to top but the form out of tomorrow's Flemington meeting must be respected.

Last year Hey Doc ran fourth in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes, Sheidel won the G3 Begonia Belle Stakes, Russian Revolution finished fourth in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and Tivaci ran third in the G1 Cantala Stakes.

Since that day 12 months ago they've won a G1 Oakleigh Plate, a G1 Australian Guineas, a G1 Galaxy, a G1 All Aged Stakes and the G1 Manikato Stakes.


*** Please note this track has had it's problems with bias the last two Cup Week Carnivals so it may pay to watch the first few races before having any serious wagers. ***

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a slight chance of a morning shower. ***

V.R.C. Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

It's been a pretty even spread over the last decade with four winners of this race coming via the G2 Vase, two the G3 Norman Robinson, two the Listed Geelong Classic, one from a G1 Spring Champion and one from a BM72. Which is the best form race this year?

I'm a huge Aloisia fan so naturally I think the G2 Vase was a better race but seeing the first three aren't engaged here 'm going with the G3 Norman Robinson. Cliff's Edge ran in both so that gives us some kind of form reference. He dictated from the front but there were good runs behind him.

With that in mind I'm going each-way on Eshtiraak. His sectionals from the mile home were the best of the race and he still looked powerful on the line. The stable is flying and the jockey is a big race specialist, he'll get a good passage from barrier five and he's from the same sire as Cup winner Shocking so he should see out the staying trip. He won four of his first six starts and has always shown ability. This doesn't look like a strong Derby.

There's a few others with claims like Main Stage. He was good from the back in the G3 Norman Robinson behind Cliff's Edge after rounding him up at their previous start at Flemington in the Listed U.C.I. Stakes but the wide draw makes it tricky. Then there's his stablemate Sully who chased home Ace High when third (below) in the G1 Spring Champion last start but again the stable got no favours at the barrier draw. Speaking of Ace High he has certainly done nothing wrong and is coming off back-to-back wins in the G3 Gloaming and the aforementioned G1 Spring Champion. My concern is he hasn't had a run since so he goes into this off a four week break. Will he be seasoned enough for 2500m? Assuming of course it is a strongly run race. If not he will be very hard to run down from the inside gate because he maps well here with his racing pattern. 

Tangled has been very solid at his last three runs. He lumped a big weight and got very tight when a close-up fourth in the Listed Dulcify. He followed that with seconds in the G1 Spring Champion (above) and the G3 Norman Robinson. His dam Bramble Rose ran third to Sunday Joy in the 2003 A.J.C. Oaks and jockey Blake Shinn is riding in excellent form. Weather With You is ideally drawn and comes off a victory in Listed Geelong Classic. The double has never been completed although Preferment (2014) and Rebel Raider (2008) placed in in the race. That's good news for longer priced chances Astoria and Ocean's Fourteen. They were both solid from worse than midfield in the same race to fill the minor placings. I thought the former was a better run because Ocean's Fourteen cut the corner whereas Astoria went via the car park. From the inside barrier he should get a cosier run tomorrow and he's been nibbled at in early markets. 

Greycliffe is a son of Tavistock so it was no real surprise when he stepped up to a trip for the first time last start and absolutely smacked them. Sure it was only a BM64 but he carried 57kg and beat older horses. Aberro split Main Stage and Eshtiraak in the G3 Norman Robinson. Pissaro chased hard in the G2 Vase last week without threatening. Johnny Vinko got too far back last start in a race where the winner shared the lead. Prior to that he was on the heels of Main Stage and Cliff's Edge in the Listed U.C.I. Stakes.

Locky's Tip

4. Eshtiraak EACH-WAY 

OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES

Bring Me Roses (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) was scintillating last start to come from near last in a race where they walked in front. She's only had four career starts but she has steadily improved at each run as they have stepped her up in distance. She's a daughter of High Chaparral so she should relish the mile and a quarter. The Tony McEvoy stable is airborne at the moment.

Foxplay (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) gets another chance because that G2 Tristarc Stakes was run on a Caulfield track that was doing funny things with the rail out six metres. She was also dropping back to 1400m following her fourth (below) in the G1 Epsom. That form is good enough to see her extremely competitive here against her own sex at w-f-a and back up to the mile.

Tom Melbourne (Flemington Race 8 No. 5) looks the likely leader in a contest devoid of any real pace and if this Flemington track plays the way it has the last two carnivals that will be an advantage. His last start sixth in the G1 Toorak was very brave given he raced on speed and the trifecta came from 11th or worse on the turn. He can be hard to catch but I'm giving him one last chance.

Good punting!