G1 Melbourne Cup Day - 07.11.2017

I will start with a warning that the G1 Melbourne Cup is not a race that's been good to me over the years so take my tips with a grain of salt.

I'll be saving my money for Aloisia on Thursday.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly cloudy day with a medium chance of showers in the morning. ***

Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Who Shot Thebarman is an early scratching ***

Quite a few to get through so I'll be brief and look at them in rough market order.

Almandin is our defending champ and narrow favourite but he has to carry an extra 4.5kg this year and a quick glance at the history books will tell you that going back-to-back is very hard to do. He was plain last start as a short priced favourite but he races well here and will stay the 3200m. Marmelo was the eye-cathcer in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) when flashing home from the tail to finish sixth. Prior to that he won the G2 Prix Kegorlay in France. Americain (2010) and Protectionist (2014) completed the same double. Humidor pushed Winx in the G1 Cox Plate last start in track record time and I just wonder how much that has taken out of him. Both his G1 wins were here at Flemington but he's never won beyond 2000m. Neither has Johannes Vermeer. Otherwise his form paints a nice portrait because he was great in the G1 Caulfield Cup last start (below) and he's drawn to get every possible chance. His G1 Caulfield Stakes run was also very, very good.

The next five in the betting are all internationals without an Australian lead-up run. No one has won this race off a prep like that since Vintage Crop (1993) but seven of the last eight second placegetters (Crime Scene, Fiorente, Max Dynamite and Red Cadeaux thrice) have taken that path.

Rekindling should get a lovely run from barrier four and Corey Brown won this race on Shocking in 2009. Last start he was a two length fourth in the G1 St. Leger and he drops 6kg on that run. He's the most inexperienced runner here with just nine career starts so he may not be seasoned enough. Wall Of Fire was impressive in the G2 Herbert Power at his Australian debut last start. He came from last to finish second conceding the winner 5kg. That was a great form race (Lord Fandango, Gallic Chieftain, Boom Time) and he drops 5kg here. Max Dynamite finished second in this race two years ago and is in one kilo lighter this time around. His preparation has been almost identical with a run in a hurdle two starts back followed by a win on the flat. Great barrier draw and he drops 19kg on his last start win. Thomas Hobson has to overcome a wide draw but from all reports Joao Moreira chased the ride so he's seen something he likes. He drops down in the weights here for the first time in a long time and much like last year's runner-up Heartbreak City he is a hurdler who can also race well on the flat. My worry is his best form is over longer so he may be too dour. Red Cardinal will need divine assistance from the outside gate but he's in good hands with a Cup winning trainer and a two-time Cup winning jockey. He's won two from two at the trip - the first in Germany three starts back, the second (below) in the U.S. two starts back - so clearly he travels well.

Amelie's Star won the G3 Bart Cummings last start which is the same race Almandin won last year en route to his victory. She failed next start but she was however ridden a lot closer to the lead than her normal racing pattern. She has no weight and good Flemington form. Big Duke is coming off a fourth in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup when he didn't have a lot of luck. That was his first unplaced run in eight attempts at 2400m+. His two prior runs at Randwick were strong staying performances and the Sydney form is stacking up. He's well drawn and lightly weighted. Tiberian has won four of his last five starts but the barrier draw did him no favours. His six career wins have been at 2400m - 3000m. Statistics suggest it's very hard to win this race at your first Australian start. Hartnell finished third in this race last year (below) when he was in much better form and carrying 1.5kg less so it's hard to make a case for him winning this time around. Not many win carrying the number one saddlecloth either. Boom Time got all the favours when winning the G1 Caulfield Cup last start but he was still strong at the end. I can't remember the last G1 Caulfield Cup winner that started at $34 in this race 17 days later. Still down in the weights and the stable is bullish about his chances.

Ventura Storm split Winx and Humidor in the G1 Turnbull two starts back (below) and that form looks red hot now. That run clearly took something out of him because he was pretty plain next start in the G1 Caulfield Cup although he was found to have a bruised heel post race. Nakeeta won the Ebor Handicap last start and that race has provided previous placegetters Purple Moon and Heartbreak City. Libran was second in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup last start and the third horse has since won the G3 Lexus. He's another who drops sharply in weight. Single Gaze is just so honest and her G1 Caulfield Cup run was enormous. Her last 10 starts have yielded two wins and six other top five finishes. Kathy O'Hara is in good form with a winning treble at Rosehill on Saturday.

Wicklow Brave is a 9-y-o gelding now and he was awful in this race last year and not much better in the G1 Caulfield Cup last start. Cismontane won a weak G3 Lexus on Saturday. He's our likely leader but whether he'll be there at the end is another matter. U.S. Army Ranger has no recent good form and has drawn very wide. Bondi Beach has contested the last two renewals of this race and was awful both times. Gallante isn't going well enough. He'll probably be on pace but I expect he'll drop out faster than the Cincinnati Bengals in the playoffs.

Locky's Bets

5. Marmelo EACH-WAY 
13. Big Duke EACH-WAY

ONLY OTHER BET

Derryn (Flemington Race 9 No. 2) has been well beaten at his two starts this prep but this is a much easier assignment. Barrier 20 could be the place to be late in the day and don't forget this bloke was only three quarters of a length off Redzel in the G1 Doomben 10,000 five starts back. Jockey Blake Shinn is in good touch. Each way at good odds.

Tough day to find winners.

Good punting!