Major racing action moves to the West this weekend with Ascot to host the G1 Railway Stakes.
All this will be followed by G1 Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time going around in Sunday's G1 Japan Cup.
All this will be followed by G1 Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time going around in Sunday's G1 Japan Cup.
ASCOT
Railway Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
The history books say it will be hard for the favourite because only two have won since the turn of the century. Having said that only four winners in the same period have been at double figure odds and it's worth noting that they all came in the last eight years. It's proven a difficult race for visiting horses and trainers to win with the locals saluting in 14 of the last 17 renewals. Only three winners in that time carried 55kg or more. Six winners came via the Lee Steere Stakes and six via the Peters Stakes and all 12 of those finished no worse than fifth.
With that in mind I'm looking wide here and tipping the Stephen Miller trained Variation on an each-way basis. He's a 4-y-o on the way up in with a light weight and a specialist miler with three wins from three goes including a Listed Belmont Guineas and a G2 W.A. Guineas (below) on this day last year. He's two from two at this track and trip and his three runs so far this prep (1400m-1500m) have been solid without winning. Now he steps up to his pet trip fourth run back. Barrier four (three if/when the emergency comes out) doesn't hurt either and Brad Parnham has partnered this horse in all bar one of his seven career wins.
Obviously there are other hopes. Last year's winner Scales Of Justice will have to lump an extra 4.5kg this year but he goes well at this track (8:4-3-1) and distance (3:3-0-0) and Douglas Whyte once again makes the trip from Hong Kong to take the ride. He's drawn awkwardly however. Silverstream beat him last start in the G2 Lee Steere Stakes and meets him 2kg better off here so she has to be mix especially given she's a five-time winner at Ascot. No wins beyond 1400m though and she's drawn the extreme outside gate. Great Shot split the pair of them last start and meets them both better at the weights. Two wins and a third from three runs at the mile. He rarely runs a poor race so he could be a roughie for wider exotics. Pounamu isn't the worst $16 chance I've ever seen either. He's grown another leg since moving to the West.
Of the visitors I think Tom Melbourne brings the best form but how can you back him with any confidence anymore. He hasn't saluted since winning the Listed Albury Cup 20 months ago. Black Heart Bart isn't getting any younger and his last few runs have been below par plus he has a stack of weight to carry. Supply And Demand got the visitors draw and the race he was beaten in on Oaks Day was much weaker than this. Sovereign Nation and Ulmann are capable on their day but hard to catch.
With that in mind I'm looking wide here and tipping the Stephen Miller trained Variation on an each-way basis. He's a 4-y-o on the way up in with a light weight and a specialist miler with three wins from three goes including a Listed Belmont Guineas and a G2 W.A. Guineas (below) on this day last year. He's two from two at this track and trip and his three runs so far this prep (1400m-1500m) have been solid without winning. Now he steps up to his pet trip fourth run back. Barrier four (three if/when the emergency comes out) doesn't hurt either and Brad Parnham has partnered this horse in all bar one of his seven career wins.
Obviously there are other hopes. Last year's winner Scales Of Justice will have to lump an extra 4.5kg this year but he goes well at this track (8:4-3-1) and distance (3:3-0-0) and Douglas Whyte once again makes the trip from Hong Kong to take the ride. He's drawn awkwardly however. Silverstream beat him last start in the G2 Lee Steere Stakes and meets him 2kg better off here so she has to be mix especially given she's a five-time winner at Ascot. No wins beyond 1400m though and she's drawn the extreme outside gate. Great Shot split the pair of them last start and meets them both better at the weights. Two wins and a third from three runs at the mile. He rarely runs a poor race so he could be a roughie for wider exotics. Pounamu isn't the worst $16 chance I've ever seen either. He's grown another leg since moving to the West.
Of the visitors I think Tom Melbourne brings the best form but how can you back him with any confidence anymore. He hasn't saluted since winning the Listed Albury Cup 20 months ago. Black Heart Bart isn't getting any younger and his last few runs have been below par plus he has a stack of weight to carry. Supply And Demand got the visitors draw and the race he was beaten in on Oaks Day was much weaker than this. Sovereign Nation and Ulmann are capable on their day but hard to catch.
Locky's Bet
16. Variation EACH-WAY
OTHER BETS
Love Days (Ballarat Race 1 No. 9) two runs this prep are better than they look on paper. She missed the kick and raced in restricted room first-up and she had the wind knocked out of her sails at a crucial stage last time out. Despite that she wasn't far away on either occasion. The blinkers go on for the first time and Melham should get a good run from the barrier. Back on a dry track helps too.
Chamalu (Doomben Race 2 No. 5) has drawn horribly but he is an on speed type so hopefully he can get across. Two wins from four starts and one of those misses was in a G1 Golden Rose at just his second career start. His win first-up this prep was impressive and he had excuses last time out. He's always looked like a mile will suit.
Good punting!
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