Thursday, 16 November 2017

G2 Zipping Classic Day - 18.11.2017

My apologies for the absence over the second half of the Flemington Carnival but my laptop chose to up and die halfway through Cup Week.

Don't worry. You didn't miss anything.


SANDOWN




*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day the chance of showers in the afternoon. ***


Zipping Classic (Group 2, 2400m, w-f-a)


Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***


The bookies have this as a race in three with a trio of runners at $4 or less and the rest at $15+.

Almandin is suited away from handicap conditions and I'm prepared to overlook his below par run in the G1 Melbourne Cup (below) because he was wide the whole way with a big weight. It just depends which one of him turns up. If it is the horse from two starts back in the G3 Bart Cummings he'll struggle. If it is the horse from three starts back in the Listed JRA Trophy he will brain them. Who wants to take $2.50 to find out?



Big Duke was a brave fourth in the G1 Melbourne Cup but meets Almandin 3kg worse off. He's had two runs at 2600m for wins in a G2 Chairman's and the $500K St Leger three starts back. His prior effort when a narrow second in the G1 Metropolitan was huge given he conceded the winner 4.5kg. In a winning stable, drawn well and ultra consistent.

The Taj Mahal ran last weekend and he's failed both times previously when on a seven day back-up. Granted both were in G1's but he's also only been tried beyond 2000m once and was well beaten in a G1 Irish Derby. The G1 Emirates run was good but $4 about a horse who is one from 18? That's way too short for mine.

The rest aren't given much chance of winning. At least not by me.

Assign has had three runs this prep. He's been beaten a combined margin of 21.75 lengths and has beaten a combined five horses home. I guess he'll be used as a pacemaker. There, I said it. Take me to court Lloyd. So Si Bon hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Pakenham 14 months ago. He ran fourth in this race last year as a 3-y-o with 50.5kg and goes up 7.5kg here. His last two runs have been uninspiring. Consommateur would love a bit of rain because she eats mud. She was good fresh then just so-so at her last two but of the five at long odds she's the only one I could have in a trifecta. Berisha can mix his form.  He was good three starts back behind a subsequent G1 Cox Plate placegetter but that was his best run since a third in the G3 Naturalism last year. The last time he won Prince was still alive. Dandy Gent would be getting 14.5kg from Almandin if this race was a handicap. Last start he was a sixth length ninth of ten in a Kyneton Cup with 54kg and he goes up 5kg here. No.


Locky's Bet


NONE 


OTHER BETS



Gallic Chieftain (Sandown Race 3 No. 2) deserves to break through here after four really consistent runs. He flew from last in a leader dominated G3 JRA Cup then was placed in the G2 Herbert Power and G3 Geelong Cup (below) - both strong form races. He followed that with a solid effort in the G3 Queen Elizabeth in a race again controlled from the front. He'll be a lot closer in this small field and looks like he'll love two miles.



Beau Geste (Sandown Race 8 No. 2) was impossible to miss in the G3 Carbine Club last start when rattling into fourth. He was still last at the 200m and buried behind a wall of horses but I loved the way he attacked the line once clear. His closing sectionals were some of the best of the race. A mile on a big track suits.



Good punting!

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