This is not a strong G1.
But I will press on regardless.
But I will press on regardless.
ASCOT
*** At time of publication a track rating still wasn't available if you can believe it. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***
Winterbottom Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** The River is an early scratching ***
Viddora has never won beyond 1100m and in six runs at 1200m has managed just two seconds but her fresh run in the G1 Moir Stakes was outstanding and she wasn't far away next start (below) in a leader dominated G1 Manikato Stakes. That was the first time she'd missed a top two finish since October last year. Visiting trainers have won seven of the last 10 runnings.
State Solicitor is a 1200m specialist with six wins from nine goes and William Pike has won this race twice before. He finished sixth in this race last year beaten a length. On that day he drew 11 of 12 and was hooked back to last but he flashed home in a race where Takedown and Sheidel were 1-2 the whole way. His should have won the G3 Colonel Reeves by a bigger margin last start after running into traffic.
Rock Magic beat State Solicitor home in this race last year (above) and arguably had a harder run. He finished midfield in the G1 Darley Classic (below) last but so did Buffering before winning this race two years ago. He was in the wrong part of the Flemington track that day too. Prior to that he was wide with no cover behind Hey Doc in the G1 Manikato but battled on gamely. He goes well here.
Santa Ana Lane isn't to badly treated by the wide barrier because he is a get back and run on type after all and the last five winners drew barrier eight or wider. He's the only G1 winner in the race and all three runs this prep have been good but they've all been at handicap level too. Up to 58.5kg here is much harder but having said that this isn't the best w-f-a field I've ever seen.
Only one winner in the last 13 years has returned more than $9.
Fuhryk won two starts back and got "Willowed" fresh but her other two runs this campaign were pretty ordinary. Four of the last six winners of this race came off a last start at Flemington during Cup Week.
The next five all come via the G3 Colonel Reeves won by State Solicitor and crossed the line within a half a length of each other.
Caipirinha was caught wide but still finished on the heels of the winner and she gets a 2.5kg swing here. She's a four-time winner at Ascot including two at this trip but she's drawn horribly again. Durendal gets the same weight turnaround but he's never won here in seven attempts (five placings though). He is however a six-time winner at 1200m. He went close last start at big odds. Profit Street is in 1.5kg to the good at comparative weights and he was the best of the closers in a race where they didn't go hard. He's a five-time winner at the journey and two of them were right here. Dainty Tess has nine career wins at 1000m-1100m but just the one at this distance. She's only raced at 1200m three times though (all at this circuit) for a win and a second. Another who is better suited at the weight scale. Whispering Brook also meets the favourite 2.5kg better from the same outing. She's the best backed roughie in the race ($26 into $12) and a four-time winner at this track. Jockey Jason Brown won this race in 2012 and 2014. Blinkers first time.
The bottom four are $31+. No.
State Solicitor is a 1200m specialist with six wins from nine goes and William Pike has won this race twice before. He finished sixth in this race last year beaten a length. On that day he drew 11 of 12 and was hooked back to last but he flashed home in a race where Takedown and Sheidel were 1-2 the whole way. His should have won the G3 Colonel Reeves by a bigger margin last start after running into traffic.
Only one winner in the last 13 years has returned more than $9.
The next five all come via the G3 Colonel Reeves won by State Solicitor and crossed the line within a half a length of each other.
Caipirinha was caught wide but still finished on the heels of the winner and she gets a 2.5kg swing here. She's a four-time winner at Ascot including two at this trip but she's drawn horribly again. Durendal gets the same weight turnaround but he's never won here in seven attempts (five placings though). He is however a six-time winner at 1200m. He went close last start at big odds. Profit Street is in 1.5kg to the good at comparative weights and he was the best of the closers in a race where they didn't go hard. He's a five-time winner at the journey and two of them were right here. Dainty Tess has nine career wins at 1000m-1100m but just the one at this distance. She's only raced at 1200m three times though (all at this circuit) for a win and a second. Another who is better suited at the weight scale. Whispering Brook also meets the favourite 2.5kg better from the same outing. She's the best backed roughie in the race ($26 into $12) and a four-time winner at this track. Jockey Jason Brown won this race in 2012 and 2014. Blinkers first time.
The bottom four are $31+. No.
Locky's Bet
1. Rock Magic EACH-WAY (without much confidence)
OTHER BETS
Pretty Fast (Doomben Race 5 No. ?) is racing in fine fettle with three consecutive wins in Sydney. I'm always wary when Team Snowden brings one north of the border. No wins on Heavy but two wins on Soft and this track is on the improve. Set weights suits.
Sedanzer (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) defied a dawdling tempo first-up to get home over the top of them. She's unbeaten in two second-up runs. Second run back last prep she came from near last to beat the talented Interlocuter by a length.
Sedanzer (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) defied a dawdling tempo first-up to get home over the top of them. She's unbeaten in two second-up runs. Second run back last prep she came from near last to beat the talented Interlocuter by a length.
Good punting!
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