A very early blog this week as I am flying to Melbourne in the hope of witnessing history.
Can the great mare equal the record of the legendary Kingston Town and in the process surpass Makybe Diva as Australia's highest ever prize money winner?
Can the great mare equal the record of the legendary Kingston Town and in the process surpass Makybe Diva as Australia's highest ever prize money winner?
MOONEE VALLEY
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for the slight chance of a shower this evening and a medium chance of showers tomorrow. ***
Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** Voodoo Lad is an early scratching ***
Vega Magic was worse than midfield last start (below) which was curious given he's an on speed type and The Everest was only a moderately run race. Jockey Craig Williams blamed the barrier so hopefully from gate three he can be a lot closer tonight. This is his first look at The Valley but he's a nine time winner at the journey and has only missed a place once in 13 starts at the 1200m.
In Her Time has beaten G1 winners English and Impending at her last two runs and she's done it running sizzling times. With her good racing pattern and barrier two Corey Brown should get into a good spot early and she is a four time winner at the journey. Third-up last prep she was unlucky not to win the G1 Tatt's Tiara after covering more territory than the early explorers.
Chautauqua won this race (below) two years ago but his recent record isn't great. Since his big victory in May of last year in Hong Kong's G1 Chairmans Sprint he's had nine starts for just one win. Barrier 10 is better for him than being drawn in because it gives Dwayne Dunn options but I can't see this being run to suit him because I doubt they'll be hiking along in front.
English ran well in The Everest but it can't be ignored that she's won only once in 10 goes at 1200m. She hasn't won in her last nine starts and four of her five wins came either first or second-up. Still the stable had a winning treble at Caulfield last weekend and Mark Zahra enjoyed G1 success two weeks ago aboard Gailo Chop.
Viddora flashed home here two starts back here in the G1 Moir Stakes to just miss and then wasn't far away last start behind Super Cash in the G3 Schillaci Stakes. She has finished either first or second in her last six starts and although she's never won here she has filled a place at three out of four starts.
Super Cash has four wins at 1100m but just the one at this trip in seven starts. Interestingly the only time she has won second-up she came off a first-up loss. On the four occasions she won fresh she disappointed at her next run. The awkward gate doesn't help her chances either.
Malaguerra drew horribly last start and he fared no better this time around. At his only run at this course and distance he won the G2 Australia Stakes beating Black Heart Bart. Keeping that in mind I think that the step up to 1200m is in his favour especially given he's a six-time winner at the trip.
Locky's Tip
9. In Her Time WIN (because I cannot in good conscience back anything Craig Williams is riding at the moment)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Folkswood will find this a lot tougher than his last start victory in the Listed Cranbourne Cup but English trainer Charlie Appleby has a phenomenal strike rate in this country. In the last year he's won six Black Type races from just 14 starters and he's also finished second in a G1 Caulfield Cup, third in a G3 Geelong Cup and fourth in a G1 Melbourne Cup. The horse is two from three second-up and has never missed a place in four runs at the journey.
Kaspersky dropped right out of the G1 Toorak Handicap after going out faster than the Cincinnati Bengals in the play-offs. All of his nine career wins have come at 1600m-1700m and the last one of those was 10 starts and 15 months ago. Four starts at G1 level with his best performance being a third.
Don't think you can actually make money by doing something cute like standing out Winx in a quinella/exacta/trifecta/first four because everyone else in the country will be doing the same thing and the field is too small to make it worthwhile.
(Yeah, OK, so I did it last year with Hartnell and Yankee Rose. Whatever.)
Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Who will run second to Winx? Four Melbourne starts for four Melbourne wins by a combined margin of 20+ lengths. 21 in a row. The tag of "World's Best". Enough said.
Royal Symphony is attempting to become the third 3-y-o to win this race in the last nine years. He won't. Yes he has a massive weight advantage but he just gets too far back in his races and that makes it tough for him here because I can't see them trying to break any land speed records out in front. He does look like he'll get over a staying trip and this should tune him up nicely for the G1 V.R.C. Derby next Saturday.
Gailo Chop has six wins from nine runs at 2000m including last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes and his last start victory (below) in the G1 Caulfield Stakes. The runner-up on that occasion was Johannes Vermeer and he franked that form last Saturday when third in a messy G1 Caulfield Cup. He'll give them something to chase for a long way and I can't see anyone challenging him for the lead so he'll probably give a good kick.
Humidor has never missed a place at the trip (5:3-1-1) but he has a bad habit of laying in as he did last start in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Darren Weir has finally put the blinkers on here and he even sent him over the jumps during the week to get his mind on the job. It could do the trick or he could get even more fizzed up in the yard particularly now the "House Full" sign is up at Moonee Valley. He's likely to be giving them too much head start.
Happy Clapper comes off a narrow last start defeat at odds-on in the G3 Craven Plate. The track favoured leaders that day however and he was ridden from well back in the field despite being much handier at his previous start (below) when victorious in the G1 Epsom Handicap. On paper his 2000m record is poor (5:0-1-1) but his "misses" were in a G1 Mackinnon Stakes, a G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and this race last year.
Seaburge has finished second in a G1 Gaulfield Guineas and second in a G1 Mackinnon Stakes and has done absolutely nothing else in his last 13 starts. His last start fifth in the G1 Toorak Handicap was his best run in almost a year but it was a swoopers race. Co-trainer Ben Hayes was brief following trackwork on Tuesday - "It will be fun watching Winx win".
Hardham is the only runner aside from the mighty mare who has won here previously. He claimed the G2 Alister Clark Stakes at this course and distance back in March before finishing third in the G1 A.T.C. Derby. He should be nice and fresh here because he offered absolutely nothing last week in the G1 Caulfield Cup.
Locky's Tip
(Yeah, OK, so I did it last year with Hartnell and Yankee Rose. Whatever.)
OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES
Big Duke (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 1) comes off a win in the St Leger and a gutsy second in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap (below) when he conceded the winner 4.5kg. In seven runs at 2400m or beyond he's notched four wins, two seconds (G1 & G3) and a third (G1) and he was won here at Moonee Valley previously. He's suited at the weights scale and drawn to get a lovely run. If you like him it may pay to have a little futures bet in "The Cup" at the $19 on offer because if he wins this that price will quickly disappear.
Religify (Moonee Valley Race 8 No. 4) is out to his pet trip here. He's had five runs at the mile this year and he's won four and missed on a Heavy 8. He had to carry a stack of weight last start so back to w-f-a here suits and on dry tracks he's placed in 15 of his last 17 runs. He'll be on the speed from gate three and at The Valley that's usually the best place to be. Chris Waller + Hugh Bowman = YES.
Religify (Moonee Valley Race 8 No. 4) is out to his pet trip here. He's had five runs at the mile this year and he's won four and missed on a Heavy 8. He had to carry a stack of weight last start so back to w-f-a here suits and on dry tracks he's placed in 15 of his last 17 runs. He'll be on the speed from gate three and at The Valley that's usually the best place to be. Chris Waller + Hugh Bowman = YES.
Aloisia (Moonee Valley Race 10 No. 9) got me the chocolates in the G1 Thousand Guineas last start at an SP of $14 so I see no reason to jump ship. She was only 0.4 seconds slower overall than the winner of the G1 Toorak Handicap on the same day. She made use of the inside gate that day and can do so again here and with even luck I think she'll be winning this and then the G1 V.R.C. Oaks 12 days later.
Good punting!
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