G1 Caulfield Cup Day - 21.10.2017

The next 22 days will see 11 G1 races run across seven race meetings and three different tracks.

Kicking off the three week racing smorgasbord is tomorrow's G1 Caulfield Cup.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Can someone please explain to me why - for their biggest race of the year - the rail is out six metres?

Johannes Vermeer has never won beyond 2000m but at his only start at the trip he was only narrowly beaten in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown two starts back when giving the winner 6kg. He had his first look at this track last weekend and was visually impressive when a fast finishing second in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (below) behind all the way winner Gailo Chop. He has won twice before on a quick back-up. Heavily backed.

Bonneval ran in the same race last start (above) and pulled up lame and with lacerations following her disappointing sixth so I'm prepared to forgive her that one bad run. She's been cleared to run and trainer Murray Baker has said all along there's nothing wrong. She's two from two at 2400m (both G1's) and on handicap ratings she is the best weighted horse in the race. She has drawn very wide but she is a get back, run on horse. Just needs cover.

Humidor was no match for Winx when third last start (below) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes but he stuck to his task. He gave second placed Ventura Storm 2.5kg and a four length head start at the 300m but whittled the margin down to three quarters of a length on the line. Darren Weir has added a near side bubble cheeker and tongue tie because the horse  wanted to lay in late. From the handy draw I can see him getting into a good spot in transit.

Amelie's Star put a two length gap on them in the G3 Bart Cummings last start. Her previous run around this distance range was a three and a quarter length victory in the G3 Colin Stephen. Her only other run at the trip she won by nearly eight lengths. Unfortunately she's drawn wide but hoop Craig Williams is the most successful jockey in this race in recent years with wins on Southern Speed (2011) and Dunaden (2012). 

Harlem drops five kilos on his last two runs which included a win in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at this track. He drew barrier one that day and got a lovely rails run and he shapes to get the same again here from the inside gate again. He meets Amelie's Star a kilo and a half better off for their last start meeting. He has two wins and two placings at this distance and the blinkers go on for the first time. Chad Schofield rode a Hong Kong treble last week. 

Jon Snow has had two runs at the trip for a third in the G1 N.Z. Derby and a win (below) in the G1 A.T.C. Derby. He won the G3 J.R.A. Cup before a very good run seven days ago when third in the G1 Caulfield Stakes. Trainer Murray Baker took a similar path to win this race with Mongolian Khan two years ago and he says this bloke is every bit as good as the stablemate Bonneval. He's drawn well, dropping in weight and races on the speed.

Ventura Storm finished second behind Winx in the G1 Turnbull Stakes a fortnight ago and had three quarters of a length on Humidor at the end. He meets him half a kilo worse off here. He's had five runs beyond 2000m for three wins and a second in the G1 Irish St Leger. Damian Oliver has won this race four times but not since 1999. Another who drops sharply in weight and should sit just off the pace from the good gate.

Inference has never won on a firm surface but his last two runs have been solid closing efforts on good tracks. This is the lightest weight he has carried in a long while and the blinkers go on for the first time. I expect Dwayne Dunn will snag him back to worse than midfield from the barrier and save him for the last shot at them. His one try at 2400m was a sixth to Jon Snow (above) in the G1 A.T.C Derby.

Marmelo has a similar profile to 2015 runner-up Trip To Paris with most of his recent form being at 2800m+ and no previous runs in this country. His last start win was at 3000m in the G2 Prix Kergorlay in France (below) and he looks a dour stayer who will be better suited at Flemington in two weeks. Three winners of this race last nine years were internationals who hadn't had a lead-up run in Australia - All The Good, Dunaden and Admire Rakti.

They are the top eight in the market. It's big prices the rest of them if you're the type who likes to have a sneaky each-way bet on something rough.

Lord Fandango is the best credentialled mile and a half horse in the race with three wins and a second from six tries. He won the G2 Herbert Power Stakes last Saturday at this course and distance and he gets in here with no weight on his back. Only Master O'Reilly (2007) has completed that double in the last 45 years and I just query whether that form is as strong as the G1 Turnbull Stakes and the G1 Caulfield Stakes.

Abbey Marie was pipped by Bonneval three runs back in the G2 Feehan Stakes and they gapped third. Following that she finished alongside Amelie's Star in a leader's dominated G3 Naturalism Stakes. Her final furlong last week was her best work and she drops significantly in weight. Single Gaze has had three consecutive runs at G1 w-f-a level behind the likes of Humidor, Bonneval and Gailo Chop and now drops to 53kg. Forgive her miss at 2400m in the G1 Australian Oaks because she fell. She finished second in the G2 Brisbane Cup at 2200m lumping 59kg. She's a rough place chance. Wicklow Brave finished fourth last time out in the G1 Irish St Leger (below) but he was beaten a very long way. Eight of his 10 wins have come on wet tracks and he has never won below 2800m. He beat just two horses home in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup and he's drawn wide.

Hardham was backed as if he was unbeatable last time out in the Inglis Cup but was disappointing on face value. He's had four runs back now and at this stage last campaign he ran third to Jon Snow in the G1 A.T.C. Derby at this distance. Boom Time is a two-time winner at Caulfield including one at this trip. He maps well and he's a model of consistency with seven runs at 2400m or further for five top five finishes. Sir Isaac Newton ran seventh in this race last year and has done nothing since. He meets Ventura Storm and Humidor 2.5kg-3kg worse off than last start and the gate doesn't help either. Two runs at 2400m for no placings and no victories beyond 2000m. He's Our Rokkii has won here three times but never beyond a mile and is horribly drawn. He's triple figure odds and will probably run accordingly.

Locky's Tip

11. Bonneval EACH-WAY

OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES

Tavistock Abbey (Caulfield Race 4 No. 7) is bred to stay. His mother is a daughter of Zabeel and his father Tavistock has produced Tarzino (G1 V.R.C. Derby), Tavago (G1 A.T.C. Derby) and Werther (G1 H.K. Derby) to name but three. Last start at 1800m he wore down Main Stage (who has since won) and he gives the impression the extra 200m will suit him even better. He's my early tip for the G1 V.R.C. Derby.

Faatinah (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) was unlucky not to finish closer than a two length sixth last start in the G1 Moir Stakes because he was squeezed up on the fence for the length of the straight. Second-up last campaign (below) only his stablemate Sheidel beat him home in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. Hugh Bowman should get the gun run from barrier one. Second in this race last year. Each-way all day.

Foxplay (Caulfield Race 9 No. 1) chased home Winx at her her first two runs this prep then drew the extreme outside in the G1 Epsom Handicap. She was forced back to last before unleashing a withering finish to be on the heels of the placegetters. Back to her own sex at set weights plus penalties here is much easier and Kerrin McEvoy should get a nice run from gate four. She goes well at this trip (4:1-2-0).

Good punting!