We're getting to the pointy end of things now with the first of the Cups just over a week away and the G1 Cox Plate to follow seven days later.
I'll have tips for most of the Black Type races but the preview will focus on the Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate lead-up race in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and the inaugural running of The Everest at Randwick.
I'll have tips for most of the Black Type races but the preview will focus on the Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate lead-up race in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and the inaugural running of The Everest at Randwick.
CAULFIELD
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***
Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Hartnell has started a very short priced favourite at all three runs this preparation and he's been beaten at his last two runs when he appeared to have every possible chance. He's finished second at his last three 2000m runs but in his defence two were to Winx. Just one win in nine starts since winning the G1 Turnbull Stakes last year. He's becoming expensive.
Bonneval beat Hartnell fair and square in the G1 Underwood Stakes last start (below) and stepping up in distance looks ideal. She's won seven of 10 overall including her last six in a row - three of which were G1's. She's unbeaten in four runs at 2000m+ and unbeaten at Caulfield. She's very easy to like.
Gailo Chop staved off all challengers except Bonneval and Hartnell last start but he did get the gun run behind the two pacemakers. He was thereabouts at his previous run too in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes when fourth in a similar field. He's a five-time winner at this distance including the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington in 2015.
Single Gaze got into a speed duel last start more than 1000m from home for reasons probably only known to hoop Kathy O'Hara. All things considered it was a mighty run to finish on the heels of Hartnell and ahead of Black Heart Bart. A softer run in transit this week would see her improve.
Inference was only a half length behind Single Gaze and closing fast so perhaps stepping up to 2000m will help. He's placed at both runs at the trip with a fast finishing third in a slowly run G3 Norman Robinson Stakes this time last year and a second to Gingernuts in the G1 Rosehill Guineas.
The Taj Mahal hasn't won in his last 10 starts but five of his last six runs were at G1 level in France, Ireland, the U.K. and the U.S. His run two starts back in the G1 Secretariat at 2000m was very good. Damien Oliver has won this race four times. Calderon is the only one now trained in Australia. He's won two of three fresh his last being a $100K G3 in England six months ago. All his wins have come on good tracks. Riven Light has won three of his last four and six overall but all have been on slow or heavy. He's friendless in early markets. Johannes Vermeer ran in a G1 Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot (U.K.) three runs back (below) and that's world class form. He seems to handle all surfaces and he has the highest rating of the quartet. It's anyone's guess as to where they will be in the run though.
Abbey Marie is the complete outsider but she finished alongside Bonneval in the G2 Feehan Stakes before finishing alongside Amelie's Star in the G3 Naturalism Stakes. Both those mares have subsequently won.
Locky's Tip
11. Bonneval WIN
RANDWICK
The Everest (Special Conditions, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Very good field here with plenty of pace engaged (Vega Magic, Redzel, Redkirk Warrior, Deploy, Fell Swoop and Houtzen) so it will probably come down to race tactics, tempo and who gets the best run in transit.
Vega Magic will have to push forward from the wide draw but I don't mind him drawn out particulary with all the other speed drawn in. Plenty of people think he can win because he's clearly the best backed runner since the barrier draw. He's only missed a placing once in 12 runs at 1200m. Nine of those were wins. Will he get "Willowed" though?
Chautauqua would be better off drawn further out in my opinion. He runs the risk of getting buried back in the ruck here with quite a few likely to cross him from out wide early. Having said that he's won the last three G1 T.J. Smith Stakes (below) at this track and trip. He needs them to run along in front at a good tempo. Any rain helps.
She Will Reign gets a massive pull in the weights on most of her rivals here just as she did last start when winning the G1 Moir Stakes from a seemingly impossible position. She's only been beaten once but that defeat was at this track and at this distance and also when second-up. She can save ground from that draw but she'll need luck on straightening.
Redzel maps very well here given his good gate and racing pattern. He's won his last three starts at Randwick and has won five of his last seven with narrow seconds in his other two runs to English and Russian Revolution. He's had a four week break into this which is the same recipe they used when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 in May.
Redkirk Warrior should get into a lovely spot from gate three. His two misses at this track were on bogs and he needs a firm surface to show his best. In fact he's never been beaten in this country on a dry surface. He'd never raced below 1400m prior to his arrival. He's now had three starts for two wins (including a G1 Newmarket Handicap) and a second.
Deploy is dropping from 1300m back to 1200m since bolting in with the G3 Theo Marks Stakes last start (below) when he thrashed Egg Tart by four lengths. He has had a five-week freshen up so perhaps it's not such a big deal. He's the current track record holder at Randwick for this journey and unbeaten at the course and distance.
English draws the extreme outside so she's going to have to be ridden for luck. Everybody raved about Chautauqua and his finishing burst last start in the G2 Premiere Stakes but this mare actually had a faster final 600m and final 400m. A four-time winner here but just one victory at 1200m from nine attempts. Amazingly she has never won a race in Spring.
Clearly Innocent will appreciate the tempo being on up front because he usually steps up to 1300m second-up. He should get a lovely trail behind the pacemakers from gate six and he will be steaming home late. He is the one who will jump out of the ground if we get rain because he's unbeaten in four starts on affected going.
The rest of them are $26 or better.
Houtzen has the inside barrier and given her early speed she will make use of it especially with the featherweight. She wasn't very convincing last start even though she won. Brave Smash meets Vega Magic 6.5kg worse off for his defeat in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes three runs back. I can't see him turning the tables here. He's not finishing off his races and he looks like a horse crying out for further. Tulip has her work cut out for her jumping from barrier 11. Coolmore says she's not just there to make up the numbers. We'll see. Fell Swoop has placed behind Chautauqua in the last two runnings of the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at this track and distance. Maybe a longshot place chance?
What a fascinating contest.
Locky's Tip
Vega Magic will have to push forward from the wide draw but I don't mind him drawn out particulary with all the other speed drawn in. Plenty of people think he can win because he's clearly the best backed runner since the barrier draw. He's only missed a placing once in 12 runs at 1200m. Nine of those were wins. Will he get "Willowed" though?
She Will Reign gets a massive pull in the weights on most of her rivals here just as she did last start when winning the G1 Moir Stakes from a seemingly impossible position. She's only been beaten once but that defeat was at this track and at this distance and also when second-up. She can save ground from that draw but she'll need luck on straightening.
Redzel maps very well here given his good gate and racing pattern. He's won his last three starts at Randwick and has won five of his last seven with narrow seconds in his other two runs to English and Russian Revolution. He's had a four week break into this which is the same recipe they used when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 in May.
Redkirk Warrior should get into a lovely spot from gate three. His two misses at this track were on bogs and he needs a firm surface to show his best. In fact he's never been beaten in this country on a dry surface. He'd never raced below 1400m prior to his arrival. He's now had three starts for two wins (including a G1 Newmarket Handicap) and a second.
English draws the extreme outside so she's going to have to be ridden for luck. Everybody raved about Chautauqua and his finishing burst last start in the G2 Premiere Stakes but this mare actually had a faster final 600m and final 400m. A four-time winner here but just one victory at 1200m from nine attempts. Amazingly she has never won a race in Spring.
Clearly Innocent will appreciate the tempo being on up front because he usually steps up to 1300m second-up. He should get a lovely trail behind the pacemakers from gate six and he will be steaming home late. He is the one who will jump out of the ground if we get rain because he's unbeaten in four starts on affected going.
The rest of them are $26 or better.
Houtzen has the inside barrier and given her early speed she will make use of it especially with the featherweight. She wasn't very convincing last start even though she won. Brave Smash meets Vega Magic 6.5kg worse off for his defeat in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes three runs back. I can't see him turning the tables here. He's not finishing off his races and he looks like a horse crying out for further. Tulip has her work cut out for her jumping from barrier 11. Coolmore says she's not just there to make up the numbers. We'll see. Fell Swoop has placed behind Chautauqua in the last two runnings of the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at this track and distance. Maybe a longshot place chance?
What a fascinating contest.
Locky's Tip
5. Clearly Innocent EACH-WAY
OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES
Who Shot Thebarman (Randwick Race 6 No. 4) has three wins and four placings from his 11 starts beyond 2400m. He's clearly the best placed here at the set weights scale given three of those four placings were in either a G1 Sydney Cup or a G1 Melbourne Cup. I loved his effort in the G1 Metropolitan last start where he conceded the winner 6.5kg. He meets Libran 1kg better off here and Big Duke 3kg to the good.
Aloisia (Caulfield Race 6 No. 5) has been kept fresh for this just as she was when a narrow second (below) in the G1 J.J. Atkins second-up over the mile at the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Forget her first-up run because she went to the line under double wraps after running up backsides all the way down the straight. Provided there are no scratchings I'll play her each-way at double figure odds.
In Her Time (Randwick Race 7 No. 12) wouldn't have been out of place in The Everest given she beat home English, Clearly Innocent and Chautauqua in the G2 Premiere Stakes last start. That was her second win from two starts at the track and trip. She has been the find of the last 12 months with nine starts for five wins and two G1 placings. She's drawn a little awkwardly but should still get the job done.
Gold Standard (Caulfield Race 8 No. 7) won the G2 Stan Fox Stakes two runs back and the last three winners of this race came off a top two finish in that race with two completing the double. He followed that up with a fourth in the G1 Golden Rose and the form out of that race was franked by Perast in the G3 Guineas Prelude a fortnight ago. The last six G1 Caulfield Guineas winners were trained in N.S.W.
Star Exhibit (Randwick Race 9 No. 4) hit the line powerfully last start in the G3 JRA Cup against the bias. It was leader dominated at Moonee Valley that night and after settling second last he circled the field on the turn to be beaten a little over three lengths. The right handed way of going is no concern because he ran second (below) in the G1 Doomben Cup during the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
Comin' Through (Caulfield Race 9 No. 8) drew poorly in the G1 Epsom Handicap and as a result he was ridden a lot further back than he had been at his previous two starts plus he was caught wide. With no weight and a good gate I see him a lot closer in the run tomorrow. Michael Walker rode him in his two excellent wins at the start of this preparation and he takes the reins again tomorrow.
Good punting!
No comments:
Post a Comment