The Spring Carnival officially gets under way this weekend with the AFL and NRL seasons now finally put to bed.
Winx is the star of the show with the great mare striving to make it 21 victories in a row in the G1 Turnbull Stakes.
Winx is the star of the show with the great mare striving to make it 21 victories in a row in the G1 Turnbull Stakes.
FLEMINGTON
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***
Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Winx has never raced at Flemington. That's the only negative I can find. She's just bulletproof. Wet or dry, Sydney or Melbourne, handicap or w-f-a, six furlongs or a mile and a half, it simply doesn't matter. Her last four runs at this distance have yielded wins in a G1 Caulfield Stakes, a G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and two G1 Cox Plates. The question is do you want to take $1.18? I suppose it's better than bank interest.
Humidor is proving himself a good Flemington horse. His last two runs here he has claimed a G1 Australian Cup beating Jameka and a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) beating Hartnell. That last start win was something else given he came from last and ran by them all in a race where nothing else made significant ground from the back. I don't think he can give the mare 2kg and beat her but this should top him off nicely for the G1 Caulfield Cup.Ventura Storm was another who got a mile back in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (above) and while he wasn't as eye-catching as the winner he stuck to his task. He's a runner-up in a G1 St Leger back in England but like Humidor he'll also be better suited at Caulfield in a fortnight with just the 54kg. Sir Isaac Newton was much better last start after pulling up with an irregular heartbeat at his previous run in the G2 Feehan Stakes. He cut the corners like the winner Harlem in that Listed Heatherlie Handicap but was no match late. Assign was in the same race and was horrible however he ran last at his fresh run when last in work then came out and won the G3 Sellwood Stakes second-up off a four week break.
The other two are $301+. Both will collect at least ten grand for their troubles.
Magicool tries about as hard as Bernard Tomic. He was also nominated for the $30K Murtoa Cup and the $20K Gunbower Cup today. He couldn't have won those either. Skyfire should be getting a head start. A couple of furlongs ought to do it. Winx would still beat him though.
Locky's Tip
Sit back and enjoy the spectacle. Maybe take the opportunity to grab a drink while everyone else is watching the race and there's no queue at the bar.
RANDWICK
Spring Champion Satkes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Ace High controlled the race last start in the G2 Gloaming Stakes but to his credit he responded well when the challenge was thrown down in the straight. His breeding (High Chaparral) seems to indicate he'll be good over a longer trip. His fourth in the G1 Champagne Stakes last April was the run of a Derby horse in the making.
Sanctioned looked to have his chance to beat Ace High last start but the other horse was just too tough over the concluding stages. Kerrin McEvoy replaces Hugh Bowman who is in Melbourne but that's no real worry when you consider that they won 22 G1's between them last season.
Sully was the best of the closers behind Ace High in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. The first three were always prominent whereas he got a mile back but he hit the line as well as anything. That was the first time he'd missed a top three finish in his career. This stable produced Sangster (VRC Derby) and Tavago (ATC Derby) so they know what it takes to win a big 3-y-o G1.
Astoria was safely held last start and Sully did come from behind him and go past him despite the fact this bloke had clear running and the other had to weave a passage. It was a funnily run race though and I think he'd be better suited with more tempo in the contest as he showed at his previous run in the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle.
Tangled didn't have a lot of room late last start and he wasn't beaten far (below) in the Listed Dulcify Quality despite conceding the quinella horses 7.5kg. His mother won a G1 NZ Oaks and placed in a G1 AJC Oaks (as it was known back then) so he is bred to stay.
Dissolution meets Tangled much worse off here (as alluded to above) but he did come home faster than anything else (above) and he looks to be screaming for 2000m. He's still a maiden but I don't think he will be for long. It's just that I don't think he'll break his duck here.
Langley is another who'll find it hard against Tangled given the swing in the weights from last start (above) and the fact that he ran past this guy like he was tied to a post. He only plodded late so I can't have him in this. Coral Coast is the only filly but she put up a good fight when third behind the boys last start in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. Her dam won two G1's across the ditch including a G1 NZ Guineas. She's the likely leader and she'll give a good sight for a long way. Surpise Bullet is coming off a five length victory in a Gold Coast maiden which is hardly the ideal lead-up for a G1. Still the win was impressive given he lumped 59kg and you know he'll be rock hard fit with four consecutive runs at 1600m or further under his belt. Colesberg is the rank outsider. His only win was on debut at Warwick Farm on a Heavy 8. All he has to do is complete the course and he'll pick up $5K for connections.
Locky's Selections
Sanctioned looked to have his chance to beat Ace High last start but the other horse was just too tough over the concluding stages. Kerrin McEvoy replaces Hugh Bowman who is in Melbourne but that's no real worry when you consider that they won 22 G1's between them last season.
Sully was the best of the closers behind Ace High in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. The first three were always prominent whereas he got a mile back but he hit the line as well as anything. That was the first time he'd missed a top three finish in his career. This stable produced Sangster (VRC Derby) and Tavago (ATC Derby) so they know what it takes to win a big 3-y-o G1.
Tangled didn't have a lot of room late last start and he wasn't beaten far (below) in the Listed Dulcify Quality despite conceding the quinella horses 7.5kg. His mother won a G1 NZ Oaks and placed in a G1 AJC Oaks (as it was known back then) so he is bred to stay.
Dissolution meets Tangled much worse off here (as alluded to above) but he did come home faster than anything else (above) and he looks to be screaming for 2000m. He's still a maiden but I don't think he will be for long. It's just that I don't think he'll break his duck here.
Langley is another who'll find it hard against Tangled given the swing in the weights from last start (above) and the fact that he ran past this guy like he was tied to a post. He only plodded late so I can't have him in this. Coral Coast is the only filly but she put up a good fight when third behind the boys last start in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. Her dam won two G1's across the ditch including a G1 NZ Guineas. She's the likely leader and she'll give a good sight for a long way. Surpise Bullet is coming off a five length victory in a Gold Coast maiden which is hardly the ideal lead-up for a G1. Still the win was impressive given he lumped 59kg and you know he'll be rock hard fit with four consecutive runs at 1600m or further under his belt. Colesberg is the rank outsider. His only win was on debut at Warwick Farm on a Heavy 8. All he has to do is complete the course and he'll pick up $5K for connections.
Locky's Selections
1. Sully EACH-WAY
OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES
Spieth (Flemington Race 4 No. 4) should have two G1 wins here. He had no luck when pipped by Malaguerra in the G1 Darley Classic at this track and trip last November and if you backed him when he finished second (below) to Terravista in the G1 Lightning Stakes don't watch the replay because it'll be like bingeing on a box set of American Horror Story.
Harlem (Flemington Race 7 No. 3) won like a good horse last start and he is a two-time winner at 2400m in Europe. His only poor runs in this country have been when he's struck a wet track. It'll be nice and firm tomorrow. Almandin is very, very good but I can't step into even money with 60kg.
Missrock (Flemington Race 8 No. 9) is really well placed at the weights because she should be conceding all of her rivals at least 3kg on handicap ratings. All of her three runs this campaign have been solid and fourth run in last prep she ran a slashing fourth (below) in the G1 Sangster Stakes in Adelaide.
Dawn Wall (Randwick Race 8 No. 4) was ordinary second-up but I'll give her one more chance because Corey Brown said she might have felt the first-up run. If you go on that she's right in this. Back to fillies and mares grade this start makes it a bit easier and she's drawn to get the box seat. Each-way.
Good punting!
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