The race that stops a nation.
The only problem is that this nation is only capable of producing one horse that could make the final field of 24.
The only problem is that this nation is only capable of producing one horse that could make the final field of 24.
Who's Hot?
It was a good day for trainer Mick Price on Saturday with a G1 winner at Flemington in Flying Artie and two winners from two runners at Traralgon.
He has three runners on Cup Day at Flemington - Hellbound (Race 5 No. 11), Summer Glen (Race 6 No. 16) and Secret Agenda (Race 9 No. 6).
FLEMINGTON
Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
The market has Hartnell as the one to beat and I must say I agree. I think at the weights he simply wins this if he has come through the G1 Cox Plate (below) unscathed and if he runs out the 3200m. The fact that he's still racing indicates to me that he has pulled up well after last start and while he disappointed in this race last year (when not at his best) he has won over 3200m in England. Only Winx has beaten him this preparation.
Oceanographer is $34 into $7 since Saturday morning on the back of his barnstorming win in the G3 Lexus on Derby Day. He ran slashing time and has just 52kg but the worrying thing is he's having his third run in 13 days. Offsetting that is trainer Charlie Appleby. he's had six runners since landing in Australia and has won a G3 Lexus, a G3 Bendigo Cup, had first and third in the G3 Geelong Cup and second in the G1 Caulfield Cup.
Jameka was far too good (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup but she goes up in the weights here and on her breeding she has to be suspect at 3200m. The inside draw helps but she couldn't get near Hartnell in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and meets him 1.5kg worse off here. I'm risking her but as the only Australian bred I would love to see her win. Only three mares (Jezabeel, Ethereal and Makybe Diva) have won in the last 24 years.
Bondi Beach is the only other runner at single figure odds and he should get a lovely run from barrier five. He's one of four runners for Team Williams and is considered their top chance. He ran in this race last year but forget he went around in that farcically run barrier trial. He's been set for this ever since and his preparation has been spot on.
Double figure odds the rest.
Almandin qualified for this race with victory in the G3 Bart Cummings four weeks ago and has been kept aside since. He's well weighted and jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won the G3 Geelong Cup, the G3 Bendigo Cup and G3 Lexus Stakes in the last two weeks. Wicklow Brave has seven wins at 3200m or beyond. Trainer Willie Mullins had Max Dynamite finish second in this race last year so he knows how to get one ready. Frankie Dettori has a lot of work to do from the outside barrier. Heartbreak City also fared poorly in the barrier draw. He's strung together three wins on end back home. Two of them were hurdles so he won't know himself with just 54kg. I just question the strength of that form though. Big Orange ran well when fifth in this race last year and he is a two time winner at the two miles including a last start win (below) in the G2 Goodwood Cup. Not many top weights win.
Only three winners in the past 26 years have paid more than $17.
Of those at longer odds Exospheric meets Jameka much better at the weights then he did when a closing third in the G1 Caulfield Cup. He profiles well for this race because he's an international who's had one run in this country and performed well much like Americain, Dunaden and Protectionist. Trainer Lee Freedman has won this race five times and Damien Oliver has won three. Almoonqith was right behind Exospheric last start and probably should have beaten him home with clear running. He did win at this trip in the Listed Sandown Cup but he was well beaten in this race last year and then was safely held in the G1 Sydney Cup. A better barrier would have helped too. Secret Number finished second in the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at this Carnival last year. He's only raced once since for a win in the Listed Doonside Cup in September and has four wins and a second from five first-up appearances.
Grand Marshal got his preferred wet conditions last start and proved too strong in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup. That was his third win beyond 2400m from six attempts and he's also been placed in a G1 Sydney Cup (below) and a G2 Chairman's Handicap. He won the 2800m race on this day two years ago. Who Shot Thebarman was second in that G2 Moonee Valley Cup and meets his stablemate Grand Marshal 2.5kg worse. He's an honest type with a great Flemington record who has a win and two placings at the trip but he's had two chances to win this race already and it's hard to see him going to a new level given he's now an 8-y-o. Wide draw doesn't help either.
Qewy won the G3 Geelong Cup a fortnight ago and as mentioned above trainer Charlie Appleby is in a bit of a purple patch at present. He's won up to 3300m (the horse that is, not Charlie) and placed at 4000m so the distance isn't a problem. He was jumping hurdles three starts ago however. Grey Lion was just beaten by Qewy at Geelong and beat home Oceanographer. That form reads well now and he meets them better off at comparative weights. The worry is his only run beyond 2500m was an abject failure.
Curren Mirotic has been mixing his form back home in Japan but he's had two starts at this distance for two placings. They came in the last two renewals of the G1 Tenno Sho (latest below) which is one of the strongest two mile races in the world. On his best he'd be right in this but he's a hard one to catch and he is getting a bit long in the tooth. Drawn poorly but he'll probably cross and lead. Gallante led all the way to win the G1 Sydney Cup back in April and he's drawn to get a good run. He failed when well backed on that shifting track at Moonee Valley last start but so did Prized Icon and he bounced back to win the G1 V.R.C. Derby on Saturday so it may pay to be forgiving.
Our Ivanhowe was getting home well at the end of the G1 Caulfield Cup. Being drawn in the first half dozen will assist his chances but since 1977 only Makybe Diva (2005) has carried 57kg or more to victory. He'd really come into contention if the track was soft but I just don't think he's going to get enough rain.
Good luck to the other six runners.
Oceanographer is $34 into $7 since Saturday morning on the back of his barnstorming win in the G3 Lexus on Derby Day. He ran slashing time and has just 52kg but the worrying thing is he's having his third run in 13 days. Offsetting that is trainer Charlie Appleby. he's had six runners since landing in Australia and has won a G3 Lexus, a G3 Bendigo Cup, had first and third in the G3 Geelong Cup and second in the G1 Caulfield Cup.
Jameka was far too good (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup but she goes up in the weights here and on her breeding she has to be suspect at 3200m. The inside draw helps but she couldn't get near Hartnell in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and meets him 1.5kg worse off here. I'm risking her but as the only Australian bred I would love to see her win. Only three mares (Jezabeel, Ethereal and Makybe Diva) have won in the last 24 years.
Bondi Beach is the only other runner at single figure odds and he should get a lovely run from barrier five. He's one of four runners for Team Williams and is considered their top chance. He ran in this race last year but forget he went around in that farcically run barrier trial. He's been set for this ever since and his preparation has been spot on.
Double figure odds the rest.
Almandin qualified for this race with victory in the G3 Bart Cummings four weeks ago and has been kept aside since. He's well weighted and jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won the G3 Geelong Cup, the G3 Bendigo Cup and G3 Lexus Stakes in the last two weeks. Wicklow Brave has seven wins at 3200m or beyond. Trainer Willie Mullins had Max Dynamite finish second in this race last year so he knows how to get one ready. Frankie Dettori has a lot of work to do from the outside barrier. Heartbreak City also fared poorly in the barrier draw. He's strung together three wins on end back home. Two of them were hurdles so he won't know himself with just 54kg. I just question the strength of that form though. Big Orange ran well when fifth in this race last year and he is a two time winner at the two miles including a last start win (below) in the G2 Goodwood Cup. Not many top weights win.
Grand Marshal got his preferred wet conditions last start and proved too strong in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup. That was his third win beyond 2400m from six attempts and he's also been placed in a G1 Sydney Cup (below) and a G2 Chairman's Handicap. He won the 2800m race on this day two years ago. Who Shot Thebarman was second in that G2 Moonee Valley Cup and meets his stablemate Grand Marshal 2.5kg worse. He's an honest type with a great Flemington record who has a win and two placings at the trip but he's had two chances to win this race already and it's hard to see him going to a new level given he's now an 8-y-o. Wide draw doesn't help either.
Qewy won the G3 Geelong Cup a fortnight ago and as mentioned above trainer Charlie Appleby is in a bit of a purple patch at present. He's won up to 3300m (the horse that is, not Charlie) and placed at 4000m so the distance isn't a problem. He was jumping hurdles three starts ago however. Grey Lion was just beaten by Qewy at Geelong and beat home Oceanographer. That form reads well now and he meets them better off at comparative weights. The worry is his only run beyond 2500m was an abject failure.
Curren Mirotic has been mixing his form back home in Japan but he's had two starts at this distance for two placings. They came in the last two renewals of the G1 Tenno Sho (latest below) which is one of the strongest two mile races in the world. On his best he'd be right in this but he's a hard one to catch and he is getting a bit long in the tooth. Drawn poorly but he'll probably cross and lead. Gallante led all the way to win the G1 Sydney Cup back in April and he's drawn to get a good run. He failed when well backed on that shifting track at Moonee Valley last start but so did Prized Icon and he bounced back to win the G1 V.R.C. Derby on Saturday so it may pay to be forgiving.
Our Ivanhowe was getting home well at the end of the G1 Caulfield Cup. Being drawn in the first half dozen will assist his chances but since 1977 only Makybe Diva (2005) has carried 57kg or more to victory. He'd really come into contention if the track was soft but I just don't think he's going to get enough rain.
Good luck to the other six runners.
Locky's Selections
BEST
6. Hartnell
DANGER
5. Exospheric
FOR EXOTICS
17. Almandin
4. Bondi Beach
21. Secret Number
4. Bondi Beach
21. Secret Number
20. Oceanographer
OTHER BETS
Egyptian Symbol (Flemington Race 10 No. 2) has drawn badly but she usually drifts back in her races so it's not a real concern. She looked good winning fresh and the stable has only brought two horses south for the Carnival. Her only 1400m run was a one length third to Mahuta in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas.
Good punting!
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