You're going to see a distinct theme to my selections tomorrow with the Sydney form so dominant last weekend.
Who's Hot?
Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won a G1 at the last two Caulfield meetings with victories on Bon Aurum and Global Glamour. In between he caused a major upset in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes when piloting Russian Revolution to victory over Astern.
He is a good bet to add more Black Type to his resume tomorrow with rides on Scottish (Race 8 No. 4) and Tycoon Tara (Race 7 No. 2) amongst others.
CAULFIELD
Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)
*** Big Memory and Fanatic are early scratchings ***
Four of the last eight winners have come via the G1 Turnbull so we'll look at that form first as Hartnell was dominant once again.
Jameka was thrashed into second place in that race (below) but she was more than three lengths clear of any other runner. She drops two kilos on that run and her last run at this track was a near four length win in the G3 Naturalism Stakes four weeks ago. The barrier is awkward but her 2400m form reads well. She'd be the shortest priced winner since Elvstroem in 2004. She's been well found in the marketplace however and is too short for mine. Tally was more than three lengths behind Jameka in third place and only meets her half a kilo better off here so it's hard to see him turning the tables. The wide draw makes it even tougher but he was clearly the best of the rest in that race. He won the G2 Autumn Classic at this track earlier in the year and his only run at 2400m was a third in the G1 A.T.C. Derby. Jameka beat him home that day too.
Preferment drops two kilos for his fourth (above) to the aforementioned pair so he meets them roughly the same at comparative weights. His form hasn't been terrible this time in (he's chased home Hartnell three times) but he doesn't look the same horse he was in his last two preparations. Only four horses in the last 25 years have lumped 57kg or more to victory but if anyone can weave some magic to turn him around it's Waller and Bowman. Tarzino is another who has been a shade disappointing this time in but this is his target race. He drops 3.5kg on his last start run and it's the first time he's been down in the weights for quite some time. His Caulfield record looks bad on paper but he has run some slashing races here. I just hope he doesn't get buried back in the field from barrier four.
De Little Engine closed well in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and drops four kilos here. I doubt he has the brilliance to win this though as he seems like more of a grinding stayer. His Caulfield record is poor. Our Ivanhowe finished just behind him last start and meets him 3kg worse but he did finish third in this race last year and only has a half kilo more this time around. He should get a good smother in the run from the gate too. Set Square won three of her first four starts including a G1 V.R.C. Oaks (below) at 2500m but hasn't won since. She was beaten a long way in this race last year and has to carry a kilo more tomorrow. The barrier draw is horrible.
Three of the last eight winners (Admire Rakti, Dunaden and All The Good) had their last start overseas so I'll now turn my attention to the international invaders.
Scottish like all of them is having his first run in this country but he does have form around horses who have raced here so that can give us a bit of a clue. Three starts back he won the Listed Steventon Stakes and Trip To Paris ran third. That horse was second in this race last year. His last start at this distance was a second to Highland Reel who was third in last year's G1 Cox Plate. Kerrin McEvoy won this race for Godolphin aboard All The Good eight years ago . Exospheric finished third to Scottish at level weights the last time they met and has to give him half a kilo for that two length defeat. Two starts back he ran third in the G2 Princess Of Wales Stakes at this trip to Big Orange who ran very well in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. Trainer Lee Freedman has won this race four times. So has hoop Damien Oliver and he's drawn to advantage.
Articus is a four time winner at 2000m stretching out to 2400m for the first time. He carried 60kg last start so he won't know himself here with just the 53kg. Trainer Andreas Wohler brought Protectionist here to win a G1 Melbourne Cup two years ago so he knows what he's doing. I just don't think that German form is as strong as that of the other Europeans.
Sir Isaac Newton has only had the one 2400m run and he was far from disgraced when fourth (below) to stablemate Highland Reel in the G1 King George VI Stakes. As mentioned previously that horse has been competitive here. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has only brought two horses over for the Spring Carnival and I doubt they're here for a holiday. I'm wary of this bloke.
Real Love has taken an unorthodox path coming off a win in the G3 J.R.A. Cup. It's a double that's never been achieved in that races 21 year history. Only one last start winner has been successful in the last eight runnings and only one mare in the last 14. Still she drops 5.5kg on that victory and she did brain them. I don't think she beat anything special but all you can do is win and she did so with authority.
Sir John Hawkwood is attempting to become the first horse to win the G1 Metropolitan Handicap-G1 Caulfield Cup double since Tawqeet ten years ago. Drawing close to the fence is big plus and that Brisbane Winter form is looking good now. Especially that second to Real Love in the G3 J.R.A. Cup at Doomben (below) when he gave her 1.5kg. Three wins and two seconds at 2400m. Sacred Master ran a 22.19 final 400m when fourth to Sir John Hawkwood in that leisurely run G1 Metroplitan and his final 600m was only 0.02 slower than Hauraki in the G1 Epsom Handicap. He has no weight, a good draw and a win at the trip. Trainer and jockey go OK too.
Almoonqith is drawn to get the run of the race and the stable is flying. The problem is the horse isn't. Pemberley looks like he'll run out a strong 2400m but he may not be able to run it fast enough. Go Dreaming looks out of his depth here. Vengeur Masque is under the odds at $301.
Jameka was thrashed into second place in that race (below) but she was more than three lengths clear of any other runner. She drops two kilos on that run and her last run at this track was a near four length win in the G3 Naturalism Stakes four weeks ago. The barrier is awkward but her 2400m form reads well. She'd be the shortest priced winner since Elvstroem in 2004. She's been well found in the marketplace however and is too short for mine. Tally was more than three lengths behind Jameka in third place and only meets her half a kilo better off here so it's hard to see him turning the tables. The wide draw makes it even tougher but he was clearly the best of the rest in that race. He won the G2 Autumn Classic at this track earlier in the year and his only run at 2400m was a third in the G1 A.T.C. Derby. Jameka beat him home that day too.
Preferment drops two kilos for his fourth (above) to the aforementioned pair so he meets them roughly the same at comparative weights. His form hasn't been terrible this time in (he's chased home Hartnell three times) but he doesn't look the same horse he was in his last two preparations. Only four horses in the last 25 years have lumped 57kg or more to victory but if anyone can weave some magic to turn him around it's Waller and Bowman. Tarzino is another who has been a shade disappointing this time in but this is his target race. He drops 3.5kg on his last start run and it's the first time he's been down in the weights for quite some time. His Caulfield record looks bad on paper but he has run some slashing races here. I just hope he doesn't get buried back in the field from barrier four.
De Little Engine closed well in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and drops four kilos here. I doubt he has the brilliance to win this though as he seems like more of a grinding stayer. His Caulfield record is poor. Our Ivanhowe finished just behind him last start and meets him 3kg worse but he did finish third in this race last year and only has a half kilo more this time around. He should get a good smother in the run from the gate too. Set Square won three of her first four starts including a G1 V.R.C. Oaks (below) at 2500m but hasn't won since. She was beaten a long way in this race last year and has to carry a kilo more tomorrow. The barrier draw is horrible.
Three of the last eight winners (Admire Rakti, Dunaden and All The Good) had their last start overseas so I'll now turn my attention to the international invaders.
Scottish like all of them is having his first run in this country but he does have form around horses who have raced here so that can give us a bit of a clue. Three starts back he won the Listed Steventon Stakes and Trip To Paris ran third. That horse was second in this race last year. His last start at this distance was a second to Highland Reel who was third in last year's G1 Cox Plate. Kerrin McEvoy won this race for Godolphin aboard All The Good eight years ago . Exospheric finished third to Scottish at level weights the last time they met and has to give him half a kilo for that two length defeat. Two starts back he ran third in the G2 Princess Of Wales Stakes at this trip to Big Orange who ran very well in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. Trainer Lee Freedman has won this race four times. So has hoop Damien Oliver and he's drawn to advantage.
Articus is a four time winner at 2000m stretching out to 2400m for the first time. He carried 60kg last start so he won't know himself here with just the 53kg. Trainer Andreas Wohler brought Protectionist here to win a G1 Melbourne Cup two years ago so he knows what he's doing. I just don't think that German form is as strong as that of the other Europeans.
Sir Isaac Newton has only had the one 2400m run and he was far from disgraced when fourth (below) to stablemate Highland Reel in the G1 King George VI Stakes. As mentioned previously that horse has been competitive here. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has only brought two horses over for the Spring Carnival and I doubt they're here for a holiday. I'm wary of this bloke.
Real Love has taken an unorthodox path coming off a win in the G3 J.R.A. Cup. It's a double that's never been achieved in that races 21 year history. Only one last start winner has been successful in the last eight runnings and only one mare in the last 14. Still she drops 5.5kg on that victory and she did brain them. I don't think she beat anything special but all you can do is win and she did so with authority.
Sir John Hawkwood is attempting to become the first horse to win the G1 Metropolitan Handicap-G1 Caulfield Cup double since Tawqeet ten years ago. Drawing close to the fence is big plus and that Brisbane Winter form is looking good now. Especially that second to Real Love in the G3 J.R.A. Cup at Doomben (below) when he gave her 1.5kg. Three wins and two seconds at 2400m. Sacred Master ran a 22.19 final 400m when fourth to Sir John Hawkwood in that leisurely run G1 Metroplitan and his final 600m was only 0.02 slower than Hauraki in the G1 Epsom Handicap. He has no weight, a good draw and a win at the trip. Trainer and jockey go OK too.
Almoonqith is drawn to get the run of the race and the stable is flying. The problem is the horse isn't. Pemberley looks like he'll run out a strong 2400m but he may not be able to run it fast enough. Go Dreaming looks out of his depth here. Vengeur Masque is under the odds at $301.
Locky's Selections
BEST
4. Scottish
DANGER
5. Sir Isaac Newton
FOR EXOTICS
3. Exospheric
8. Sir John Hawkwood
11. Jameka
12. Real Love
8. Sir John Hawkwood
11. Jameka
12. Real Love
OTHER BETS
Tycoon Tara (Caulfield Race 7 No. 2) is in a rich vein of form with three wins from four starts this time in. Her only defeat saw her less than a length away from Mackintosh and that horse went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Epsom Handicap at his next start. She's very well placed a the set weights plus penalties, she's drawn to get a good run and the stable is in great touch.
Our Boy Malachi (Caulfield Race 9 No. 2) wasn't far off Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at the end of last campaign and resumed with a fighting second toTakedown in the G2 Premiere Stakes. Three wins and a second from four 1000m runs and a four time winner second-up. The stable and jockey are riding high after a big day out at Caulfield last weekend.
Takedown (Caulfield Race 10 No. 4) rarely runs a bad race and I love the way he just keeps sticking his neck out. I'm overlooking his two poor Melbourne runs last Spring because he wasn't travelling anywhere near as well as he is now. (Honestly I just want him to win to see what antics excitable trainer Gary Moore will get up to post race!) He raced well in Queensland during the Winter Carnival and that's been a good recipe for success of late.
Good punting!
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