Thursday, 6 October 2016

G1 Caulfield Guineas Day - 08.10.2016

Now we get down to the pointy end of the Spring with the first of the Cups next week and "The Cup" just 25 days away.

But first we have to get through a bumper meeting at Caulfield tomorrow with four G1's plus the G1 Spring Champion Stakes from Randwick.

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Dwayne Dunn has ten winners from his last 40 rides including Stakes winners Keen Array, Defcon, Ocean Embers and Don't Doubt Mamma (twice).

He has an enviable book of rides at Caulfield tomorrow including Hear The Chant (Race 3 No. 16), Ameristralia (Race 5 No. 14), Divine Prophet (Race 8 No. 4), He's Our Rokkii (Race 9 No. 4) and Ocean Embers (Race 10 No. 11).

CAULFIELD



*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)



*** There are no early scratchings ***

A few different formlines to marry up here with some coming via Sydney, others through the G2 Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley last Friday night and still more through the G3 Guineas Prelude a fortnight ago.

Impending was no match when third to his stablemate Astern (below) in the G1 Golden Rose two starts back but he ended his string of minor placings with a strong win next start in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes. The last two winners of that race (Press Statement and Shooting To Win) have gone on to claim the double. He's never missed a place in five runs and all bar his debut were in Stakes races. He raced in Queensland during the Winter Carnival and that form is stacking up. The stable and jockey are low level flying at the moment. Divine Prophet chased him home in both of those races and finished right on his heels each time. You could make an argument he should have finished in front of him in both because he had little luck in the former and had to be ridden upside down in the latter due to a slow tempo. He gets a chance to turn the tables here with a much better barrier draw than the favourite. Good Standing was third behind the aforementioned duo last start and finished alongside them prior in the G1 Golden Rose. He has placed just once in his last five starts but they have all been in quality races but like the favourite Impending he will have to overcome a wide gate. A firm track is a plus too because he doesn't seem to like the sting out of the ground. The engagement of Hugh Bowman is also a big tick.


Now to look at the G2 Guineas Prelude a fortnight ago and Sacred Elixir came from midfield to win and it was strong effort given they were three seconds outside the course record on a Good 3. He gave most of his rivals weight that day but meets them at set weights here. He was a dominant winner of the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes (below) at this trip in June. Revolving Door (2nd) dashed clear and looked home and I thought he had every possible hope given he sat on speed in a slowly run race. I doubt he'll be gifted that sort of soft run tomorrow. Wazzenme (3rd) recorded the fastest final 400m/200m of the day. Not bad given he had only two runners behind him on settling. He can be closer in the run tomorrow from the better draw. Seaburge (4th) loomed to win but couldn't get the job done. Maybe he just ran out of condition and that will top him up nicely for this but I can't be tumbling into him. He's drawn awkwardly and will probably have to go back again and be ridden for luck. Saracino (5th) had his chance too I thought. Remarkably jockey Damien Oliver has only won this race once in 18 attempts but he'll get a sweet ride from barrier four. Kiwi trainer Murray Baker knows a thing or two about winning big G1's in Australia. So Si Bon (6th) followed the winner through on the turn and ran the fastest final 600m. It was a good run given that he was near last on the turn in a sit and sprint affair. He's not having much luck with barriers though because this is the third time in his last four starts he's drawn a double figure gate. Evacuation (7th) was a run to completely overlook because he was wide and facing the breeze the whole way. To be beaten less than three lengths was creditable. He's likely to get a much better run in transit tomorrow from barrier three and jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won this race twice before.



Since Helenus (2002) the only winner of this race to come via the G2 Stutt Stakes was Whobegotyou (2008) but let's take a look at that form anyway because the race has provided quite a few placegetters.

Hey Doc was impressive last Friday night claiming the G2 Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley but I doubt that's the A-grade form for a race like this. Still it is hard to knock a horse who has strung together three on end and keeps looking more impressive every time he goes to the races. The wide barrier is no help. Land Of Plenty ran the fastest final 200m in the race and looks like he will eat up a mile but he has to overcome a horror draw too. Kaching closed well from near last in the same race and is drawn to get a better run here than the other two. He's consistent and racing well but this a big rise in class. I'm looking to others.

Barbie's Boy is coming off a third in a $23K Wednesday BM64 at Sale. No thank-you.

I think the Sydney form will hold up.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

4. Divine Prophet

DANGER  

2. Impending


FOR EXOTICS


1. Sacred Elixir
9. Wazzenme
10. Evacuation
13. So Si Bon

Toorak Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)



*** Tosen Stardom is an early scratching ***

He's Our Rokkii has been very, very good to me and the loyal follower(s?) of this blog and I see no reason to jump off the gravy train. He's been like an ATM for me these last six months and I am staying solid. Five wins and second from six runs since the blinkers went on. Bon Aurum won the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes last time out in impressive fashion and the last four winners of this race came via the same route although only one completed the double. His sire Bon Hoffa could manage only fourth in this race after winning the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes in 2007. Counterattack over raced and was caught deep last start in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes so he did well to beat half the field home and be less than three lengths from the winner. He meets Bon Aurum 3.5kg better off here. Royal Rapture has been well backed in early markets ($14 into $8.50) on the back of his five race winning sequence. Trainer Darren Weir has won this race the last two years running. Two wins and three seconds at 1600m from six attempts.

Only one winner in the last 12 years has returned more than $9.

Tivaci won the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas stylishly at this trip third run in last campaign. He was sound a fortnight ago in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (following a great run fresh) and gets a 4kg turnaround on the winner. Thames Court has had plenty of support in the market place but only three mares have been successful in this race in the last 25 years. She chased Bon Aurum last start and gets a 4kg swing here. Awesome Rock has got his fair share of weight but five of the last six winners carried 56.5kg+ and four of them lumped 58kg. He's capable enough on his day but tends to mix his form and he doesn't win often. 

Moral Victory is a handy type but I don't know that he's a G1 horse. He's earned his right to be here with back-to-back wins but his only victory in four runs at 1600m came in a BM70 and that was 27 months ago. Inside draw helps. Miss Rose De Lago has four wins and a third from five runs at this track. She bounced back last start with an honest third to the very talented Don't Doubt Mamma. Ignore her previous run in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes when she got flattened on the home turn. Prior to that she won the G2 Lawrence Stakes here at w-f-a.

Jacquinot Bay is coming off solid w-f-a form in races like the G1 Makbe Diva Stakes (below) and  the G1 Underwood Stakes and dropping in the weights. That's usually a good recipe and he's a six time winner at the mile. Problem is he has not won at this circuit in 10 tries. Cosmic Cube has what can best be described as second tier form and has only won once beyond 1400m. He's also got to overcome the wide barrier but his trainer goes OK. Great Esteem has four wins at 1600m and has last start form around Winx. Granted he was a six and a half length last but both the placegetters in Hauraki and It's Somewhat were also soundly beaten and have subsequently won. The inside barrier suits his racing pattern.




Locky's Selections


BEST        

4. He's Our Rokkii

DANGER  

13. Tivaci

FOR EXOTICS


3. Bon Aurum
7. Counterattack
10. Thames Court
1. Awesome Rock

OTHER BETS

Chetwood (Caulfield Race 4 No. 3) is from the flying combination of Godolphin and James McDonald and is coming off three straight wins including a last start victory in the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle. The second horse that day was Le Romain who was pretty good in the G1 Epsom Handicap last week given he had to drag the field up to the tearaway leader. 


Leotie (Caulfield Race 7 No. 10) at around the $18 mark is my best longshot of the day. She'll drift back from the wide draw but look for her to be hitting the line hard late. I know her last start win was a midweek at Bendigo but she was a 3-y-o filly against older mares and they still backed her into odds-on. Three wins and a narrow second this prep.


Fell Swoop (Caulfield Race 10 No. 5) should have won the G1 Oakleigh Plate at this track and distance when fresh last campaign (below) but was held up at a crucial stage in the straight. Let's not forget that this guy split Chautauqua and English at w-f-a in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes last prep.


High Mist (Randwick Race 7 No. 4) finished his last race with his saddle around his flank so to be within one and a half lengths of the winner was amazing. Jockey Glyn Schofield reported that the barrier blanket dragged the saddle back as they left the gates and from then on in he really had no chance. He was unlucky not to beat Swear two starts back and he gives every indication that the further they go the more he will be suited. Each-way.

Good punting!

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