A G1 triple header this weekend over Friday/Saturday/Sunday so it'll be a condensed version this week in order to get through everything whilst not losing what little is left of what I laughingly like to refer to as my mind.
Who's Hot?
The father-son training partnership of Peter and Paul Snowden had a city double at Rosehill last weekend with Tycoon Tara and Extensible. Throw in Stakes winners Defcon, Redzel and Russian Revolution and they've had a good start to the Spring.
They have Detective (Race 5 No. 1) running at Moonee Valley tonight and some strong chances at Randwick tomorrow in Khan (Race 2 No. 5) and Capitalist (Race 5 No. 2).
MOONEE VALLEY
Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Chautauqua looks the obvious. You wouldn't think he'd be a Moonee Valley horse given his racing pattern but he's raced her twice for two massive wins in a G1 Manikato Stakes (below) and a G2 McEwen Stakes. Extreme Choice won the G1 Blue Diamond back in February but this is his first taste of open company. He has only been beaten once and that was in the G1 Golden Slipper last April when he copped a squeeze shortly after the jump and was pushed back to last. Buffering is unbeaten at the track and distance has won this race three times. He's won nine from 12 first-up and five from seven at the trip. He'll give the favourite something to chase and he'll be in front for a long time. Lucky Hussler has won a G1 William Reid Stakes at this track when fresh but that was 1200m. He will however get a lovely sit on them here if they go crazy in front and could be the one coming late. Heatherly has had five runs at Moonee Valley - all of them at 1000m - and has three wins and two thirds. She wouldn't want to miss the start again like last time. Or would she? Given the likely frantic tempo it might just work.
Ball Of Muscle just keeps running honest races and did finish a narrow second (below) to Buffering in this race last year. He's only missed a placing twice in 20 career starts. Wild Rain has had four attempts at the Moonee Valley 1000m for three wins and I'm always wary of mares in form. This is a big step up but she is going great guns at the moment. Redzel beat G1 Stradbroke Handicap winner Under The Louvre last start and third-up last prep he toppled recent G2 The Shorts winner Takedown. All his wins are at 1100m however. Chloe In Paris hasn't been since for nearly a year and a half and they've picked a really difficult race to kick-off her campaign. On the plus side Damien Oliver has won this race five times. She's won at this track and trip but it was a maiden.
A good field of sprinters and they will go like the clappers here so it will probably be set up for the swoopers.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Buffering
2. Chautauqua
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
4. Ball Of Muscle
7. Heatherly
3. Lucky Hussler
7. Heatherly
3. Lucky Hussler
RANDWICK
Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Chris Waller has dominated big Sydney miles in recent years winning the last three renewals of this race, the last four G1 Doncaster Miles, four of the last five G1 George Main Stakes and five of the last six G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. So I'll look at his quartet first.
McCreery reminds me a bit of He's Your Man who won this race for the stable two years ago. He's down in the weights and dropping from 2000m back to 1600m after winning the G3 Kingston Town Stakes. Good gate. Mackintosh is a new season 4-y-o who wintered in Queensland before resuming with a win in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes. That's the same path his stablemate Winx took last year. He's drawn to get a good run. Vanbrugh gets a 4.5kg swing in the weights on Hauraki since their last start meeting (below) in the G1 George Main Stakes behind Winx. Torgersen is the least fancied of all the Waller runners but his last two runs have been good and he meets Sons of John 2kg better off for a narrow last start defeat. Lightly weighted and well drawn.
Hauraki has come back a treat this prep with a win and a second to Winx. He also has Brisbane Winter Carnival form as did recent Black Type winners Black Heart Bart, Sacred Elixir and the previously mentioned Mackintosh. Happy Clapper is another with form behind the great mare finishing second to her in the G1 Doncaster Mile at this track and trip four months ago. He only carried 50.5kg that day so rises sharply in the weights here but this isn't as strong a field. I would have preferred to see him drawn wider and not cluttered up on the rail however. Palentino also has a form line that is hard to fault with a last win (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes beating Black Heart Bart and He Or She. That pair ran the quinella in the G1 Underwood Stakes last weekend at their next starts. He's two from two at 1600m but having his first go the Sydney way. Le Romain has had one go at the mile for a win here in the G1 Randwick Guineas last April. That was his fourth run back. He's never missed a top two finish at this track in five runs and meets Hauraki 1.5kg better off for that first-up defeat in the G2 Tramway Stakes. Barrier three is ideal.
Of the rest Sons Of John comes off a win in the G3 Bill Ritchie Handicap which is the route Boban took to win this race three years ago. He has the services of three-time G1 Epsom Handicap winning jockey Glen Boss. Wide barrier is a concern. Dibayani is a money muncher but he could finish top four because he's done that in seven of his 10 runs in this country. He just doesn't win. Heavens Above is flying and wasn't suited by a slow tempo last start. She finished second to Azkadellia (below) at this track and distance in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes with 57kg so she won't know herself with just 51kg. Fabrizio was dominant last start but that was a BM85. He's in good hands however because trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times before. Mighty Lucky will probably find this a bit rich. He was pretty good fresh given he ran into traffic and he can produce second-up but the gate doesn't help.
Locky's Selections
BEST
3. Le Romain
DANGER
8. Mackintosh
FOR EXOTICS
1. Palentino
OTHER BETS
Detective (Moonee Valley Race 5 No. 1) has won both his runs this prep and third run back in the Autumn Carnival he just missed Seaburge in the G2 V.R.C. Sires Produce. He split G1 winners Capitalist and Prized Icon on debut and he's only missed a top two finish once in seven career starts. As mentioned previously the stable is in form.
Kaepernick (Randwick Race 9 No. 11) came up the wrong part of the track last start and despite being forced to weave a passage down the straight he still ran the fastest final 600m. His good second-up record indicates he'll take improvement from the outing and he's a winner here at the Randwick 1200m. I think he represents good each-way value.
Ulmann (Flemington Race 9 No.11) gave Bon Aurum a kilo last start when second in the Listed Tontonan Stakes at this track and distance. That colt subsequently won last weekend's G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. He's been in wonderful touch this campaign with his only really bad run coming on a heavy track. Three starts back he won at this track and trip.
9. McCreery
2. Hauraki1. Palentino
10. Heavens Above
FLEMINGTON
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Hartnell looks the obvious here given he's won his last two races by a combined margin of nearly 14 lengths. His only defeat this time in work was to Winx and it's remarkable how horses with form around her just keep winning. He's still got to prove himself the Melbourne way and he wouldn't want the track too firm. Jameka bolted in last start in the G3 Naturalism Stakes for her first victory since claiming the G1 V.R.C. Oaks 11 months ago. I think she'll find this mob a bit harder than Gallante, Berisha etc. but I must say she looks very well treated at the set weights plus penalties conditions. The United States was one of the many hard luck stories in the G2 Feehan Stakes after copping interference on the turn before motoring to the line late. There has to be a query on that form however given horses that finished ahead of him like Awesome Rock, Real Love, Set Square and The Cleaner were all pretty plain at their next start. Owner Lloyd Williams has won this race three times in the last six years with Green Moon, Zipping and Efficient.
Our Ivanhowe chased home the likes of Palentino, Black Heart Bart and He Or She in the G1 Makybe Stakes last run and that form is looking pretty good right now. He was only a length and a half off the winner (below) in that farcically run G1 Australian Cup at this track and distance earlier this year. Trainer Lee Freedman has trained six winners of this race. Raw Impulse is not well weighted here given his handicap rating (he should be getting 10kg from Hartnell) but he's won four of six since coming to Australia. He's a horse on the way up as he showed with his demolition job two weeks ago in the Listed Tokyo City Cup in Adelaide and it would be a brave person to write off anything trained by Darren Weir.
It's $21+ the rest.
Tally won the G2 Autumn Classic at his third run in last preparation before beating Palentino at his next start in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes. He improved markedly second-up when dropping back in class but the bar gets raised here. Set Square was just OK when a distant fourth to her stablemate Jameka in the G3 Naturalism Stakes a fortnight ago and meets her 1kg worse off here. She did run a mighty race when third in this feature last Spring (below) and her only other 2000m run at Flemington was a one and a half length fifth in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes two starts later. Tarzino won the G1 V.R.C. Derby at this track last November and finished second here during the Autumn in the G1 Australian Guineas. He's shown very little in three runs back against open company but the rise to 2000m, the big track and drawing away from the rails are plusses. I'm not sacking him just yet but he is on notice.
Preferment has to give Hartnell a kilo and half but he is a very good Flemington horse and will appreciate a firm track. He's had four starts at Flemington for wins in a G1 V.R.C. Derby, a G1 Australian Cup (above) and this race last year (below). His only "failure" at this circuit was when he got poleaxed in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. Unbeaten this track and trip. Happy Trails is lining up in this race for the fifth time and he did win it three years ago. He's only won one race since but it was a G1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track and distance albeit 23 months ago. It seems like he's had more Farewell Tours than John Farnham. Sofia Rosa is finally getting up to a trip that suits and only Palentino had a faster final 800m in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last start. Getting out to 2000m on a big track will suit her much better than her previous two runs this campaign. Hard to knock a G1 A.T.C. Oaks winner in on the minimum weight.
Locky's Selections
FLEMINGTON
Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Hartnell looks the obvious here given he's won his last two races by a combined margin of nearly 14 lengths. His only defeat this time in work was to Winx and it's remarkable how horses with form around her just keep winning. He's still got to prove himself the Melbourne way and he wouldn't want the track too firm. Jameka bolted in last start in the G3 Naturalism Stakes for her first victory since claiming the G1 V.R.C. Oaks 11 months ago. I think she'll find this mob a bit harder than Gallante, Berisha etc. but I must say she looks very well treated at the set weights plus penalties conditions. The United States was one of the many hard luck stories in the G2 Feehan Stakes after copping interference on the turn before motoring to the line late. There has to be a query on that form however given horses that finished ahead of him like Awesome Rock, Real Love, Set Square and The Cleaner were all pretty plain at their next start. Owner Lloyd Williams has won this race three times in the last six years with Green Moon, Zipping and Efficient.
Our Ivanhowe chased home the likes of Palentino, Black Heart Bart and He Or She in the G1 Makybe Stakes last run and that form is looking pretty good right now. He was only a length and a half off the winner (below) in that farcically run G1 Australian Cup at this track and distance earlier this year. Trainer Lee Freedman has trained six winners of this race. Raw Impulse is not well weighted here given his handicap rating (he should be getting 10kg from Hartnell) but he's won four of six since coming to Australia. He's a horse on the way up as he showed with his demolition job two weeks ago in the Listed Tokyo City Cup in Adelaide and it would be a brave person to write off anything trained by Darren Weir.
It's $21+ the rest.
Tally won the G2 Autumn Classic at his third run in last preparation before beating Palentino at his next start in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes. He improved markedly second-up when dropping back in class but the bar gets raised here. Set Square was just OK when a distant fourth to her stablemate Jameka in the G3 Naturalism Stakes a fortnight ago and meets her 1kg worse off here. She did run a mighty race when third in this feature last Spring (below) and her only other 2000m run at Flemington was a one and a half length fifth in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes two starts later. Tarzino won the G1 V.R.C. Derby at this track last November and finished second here during the Autumn in the G1 Australian Guineas. He's shown very little in three runs back against open company but the rise to 2000m, the big track and drawing away from the rails are plusses. I'm not sacking him just yet but he is on notice.
Preferment has to give Hartnell a kilo and half but he is a very good Flemington horse and will appreciate a firm track. He's had four starts at Flemington for wins in a G1 V.R.C. Derby, a G1 Australian Cup (above) and this race last year (below). His only "failure" at this circuit was when he got poleaxed in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. Unbeaten this track and trip. Happy Trails is lining up in this race for the fifth time and he did win it three years ago. He's only won one race since but it was a G1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track and distance albeit 23 months ago. It seems like he's had more Farewell Tours than John Farnham. Sofia Rosa is finally getting up to a trip that suits and only Palentino had a faster final 800m in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last start. Getting out to 2000m on a big track will suit her much better than her previous two runs this campaign. Hard to knock a G1 A.T.C. Oaks winner in on the minimum weight.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Preferment
4. Hartnell
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
5. The United States
6. Our Ivanhowe
10. Sofia Rosa
6. Our Ivanhowe
10. Sofia Rosa
9. Jameka
OTHER BETS
Detective (Moonee Valley Race 5 No. 1) has won both his runs this prep and third run back in the Autumn Carnival he just missed Seaburge in the G2 V.R.C. Sires Produce. He split G1 winners Capitalist and Prized Icon on debut and he's only missed a top two finish once in seven career starts. As mentioned previously the stable is in form.
Ulmann (Flemington Race 9 No.11) gave Bon Aurum a kilo last start when second in the Listed Tontonan Stakes at this track and distance. That colt subsequently won last weekend's G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. He's been in wonderful touch this campaign with his only really bad run coming on a heavy track. Three starts back he won at this track and trip.
Good punting!
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