G2 Chelmsford Stakes / G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes Day - 03.09.2016

The focus is on Moonee Valley this week with the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes the highlight plus a strong support card including the G2 McEwen Stakes for the sprinters and a couple of Listed contests.

I'm steering away from Winx and Randwick because there is no point previewing an eight horse race with a $1.10 favourite especially given the track is likely to be very heavy given the 35mm of rain they've copped in the last 24 hours.

Who's Hot? 

Mike Moroney has had five winners from his 12 runners in the last week.

He saddles up just two runners tomorrow and both run at Moonee Valley - Bonnie Belle (Race 1 No. 9) and Tara Ita (Race 3 No. 13).

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm expecting this won't be run at the breakneck speed of the G2 Lawrence Stakes or the G1 Memsie Stakes. Outside of Jacquinot Bay nothing with a single digit barrier is likely to be pushed out of the barriers so The Cleaner and Miss Rose De Lago should get across from wide gates. Ditto Mahuta and Jameka. Entirely Platinum won't be too far away either if he gains a start. The rail is out three metres too which usually favours on-pacers.

Tosen Stardom is a former Japanese trained galloper now in the hand  of Darren Weir. He'll be best remembered by Australian fans for his second placing (below) to Contributer in the G1 Ranvet Stakes of 2015. 1800m - 2000m seems his optimum distance range so this may be a little short for him given he's been off the scene for six months. No placings in three runs at the mile but he is a quality galloper.

Miss Rose De Lago is a three time winner at this trip including an all the way demolition job here at Moonee Valley in the G2 Sunline Stakes three starts ago. She'll have to overcome the extreme outside barrier to win but given her good gate speed I think she'll get across into the first half of the field without too much trouble. Her last two second-up runs have been average though.

Mahuta was pretty good first-up and his last two runs (below) are forgivable because he's been sitting third behind a couple of tearaway leaders and has had to drag the rest field into the race. Factor into the equation that he also pulled up lame on one of those occasions and he could be the big improver here. Especially given he's won  G2 Sandown Guineas and a G3 Carbine Club Stakes at the journey.

The United States has had five goes here at The Valley for two wins and two placings and he looks the class of the race with wins in the last year in the G1 Ranvet Stakes and G2 Moonee Valley Cup and a second in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. They were all at 2000m+ and he wasn't first-up either so I just wonder if he'll be fully wound up for this. Surely the G1 Cox Plate is his mission? Still good enough to win this though if he's screwed down enough. Wary.

Jameka ran third in the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes on this day last year then three starts later won the G2 Vase here on G1 Cox Plate Day. She hasn't won since claiming the G1 VRC Oaks last November (below) but hasn't finished further back than fifth in six subsequent runs. She did attack the line well first-up despite missing the start and a lack of running room. She needs to jump cleanly tomorrow or from the wide barrier she could be too far back in the run.

Suavito has had two starts here at Moonee Vally for a win and a second and both were at this distance. I expected more from her first-up but she did enough to suggest she's come back in good order. Her last two second-up runs were a win in a G2 Blamey Stakes and a third in a G1 Futurity Stakes so she could go to another level here but the barrier draw concerns me because I expect those on the pace and near the fence will be advantaged.

Double figures the rest.

Of the rest The Cleaner has won four from four at this track and distance including the last two renewals of this race. On face value he was poor last start but that was his first run in eight months and he got into a speed battle with Lord of The Sky. I think he can lead untroubled here and he could bounce back second-up and up to the mile. Crazy odds.

Jacquinot Bay was only a half a length off Miss Rose De Lago last start so I can't see why one is three times the price of the other. Especially given he's drawn to get a lovely trail behind The Cleaner here. He's fit and in form and showed last start he's not out of place in w-f-a company. Ditto Entirely Platinum. He was on the heels of the aforementioned two in the G2 Lawrence Stakes after drawing wide and being forced to cover ground. Second run back this time last year (below) he was less than half a length off Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at 1600m.

Set Square charged home fresh and had great late splits but she hasn't won for 22 months and has placed just once in the last year and a half. She's hard to recommend on that form. Tavago has been the subject of some early support ($26 into $15) and he could be the knockout horse because although he's a Derby winner he was competitive at shorter trips earlier in his career and he oozes class.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. The Cleaner

DANGER  

12. Miss Rose De Lago

FOR EXOTICS

4. Jacquinot Bay
8. Mahuta
2. The United States

15. Entirely Platinum

OTHER BETS

Le Romain (Randwick Race 8 No. 1) is my only other bet this week because I'm worried about track bias in Melbourne and a bog track in Sydney. I'm a huge fan and will continue to follow this bloke despite the fact he's not that well treated under the weight conditions. He's won on a heavy track before and he's sure to have taken significant benefit from his first-up outing when he looked the winner but just ran out of condition late and was overrun by a fitter animal. The each-way odds look generous.

Good punting!