G1 Memsie Stakes Day - 27.08.2016

The first G1 of the new season and it features two Oaks winners, two Derby winners, a Guineas winner and the reigning Melbourne Cup champion.

In fact it's a great meeting at Caulfield all round with four more competitive Black Type races with some wide open fields so if you get the Quaddie you'll probably need a wheelbarrow.

Who's Hot? 

Luke Currie doesn't get a lot of opportunities with just 26 rides in the 26 days since the start of the season but still he's managed to bag five winners and six placegetters.

He certainly doesn't have limited opportunities tomorrow though with good rides aboard Shiraz (Race 5 No. 2), Alpine Eagle (Race 7 No. 7), Magnapal (Race 8 No. 4) and Don't Doubt Mamma (Race 9 No. 1) at Caulfield.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Memise Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm expecting a pretty solid tempo here because there looks to be a bit of of speed on paper and I think Lord Of The Sky (1), Mahuta (2) and Charmed Harmony (3) will want to take advantage of their inside draws.

Black Heart Bart was narrowly beaten (below) first-up last prep in a G1 Newmarket Handicap and he beat home Chautauqua that day so his fresh credentials are pretty good. He won the G3 Victoria Handicap at this track and distance back in March and his overall record at 1400m is outstanding with five wins and four seconds from 10 starts. It looks like he'll get the gun run here and he is definitely the one they have to beat.

Mahuta pulled up lame after his last run so I'm overlooking that effort and going on his previous run in the G3 Bletchingly Stakes which was good given he'd been off the scene for 21 weeks. He's four from five at 1400m and two from three at this track including the G2 Autumn Stakes in February. He strung together six wins in a row last prep so he's obviously pretty smart and has a great barrier here.

Palentino was solid fresh under the 60kg but just ran out of condition at his first run for five months. Last prep he edged out Tarzino (below) to win the G1 Australian Guineas and prior to that he was first past the post in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes at this course and distance but lost the race on protest. His only other 1400m run was a win at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival last November. An exciting prospect.

Since 2000 only one winner of this race has returned more than $7.50 and none have returned more than $12.

Sofia Rosa hasn't been seen since winning the G1 A.T.C. Oaks in April. Her last four runs have all been at Stakes level and have yielded three wins and a narrow second but they were all run at 2000m or further. She has two fresh wins at 1200m-1300m back in N.Z. but not against a field of this calibre. Despite her outstanding first-up record (4:3-0-1) I think she'll need the hit out because her main target is the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Tavago is another Kiwi 4-y-o on a Cups trail following his devastating win (below) in the G1 A.T.C. Derby four months ago. This is probably below his best distance but they have to start somewhere and he was competitive at 1400m-1600m early in his career (4:2-1-1). He wore blinkers in his Cranbourne jumpout and they stay on here so he could run a cheeky race.

Tarzino has had two first-up runs which were both at this distance and on each occasion he got back to last and stormed home to be about a length and a half off the winner. Those were much easier races but I still can see him flashing late given the expected solid tempo. I expect he'll be much better second-up but I won't be totally surprised if he runs into the minor placings. He's a two time G1 winner but not below 2000m.

Tally made a rapid progression through the ranks last preparation and all reports from the stable are that he's made further improvement over the winter. A bold showing would not surprise because he won first-up last time in work. He's won at the track and has a win and a second from two goes at the trip and don't forget he did beat Palentino in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes in March. Tough draw though. 

Alpine Eagle has only had three starts in the last 17 months due to injury but he's a very exciting type. He's won at this circuit, has a good 1400m record and don't forget he was a narrow second to Wandjina in a G1 Australian Guineas. He won his only trial leading into this and the blinkers are on so I am very wary. He was only three quarters of a length off the likes of Fawkner and Boban (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes this time last year. 

Rising Romance beat Alpine Eagle home that day (above) but she was second-up on that occasion and her form says she'll need this run. She has one second placing from five runs here at Caulfield and just one win from five runs at the distance and that was her maiden victory in N.Z. almost three years ago. She's a very good mare but I think she'll be better when she gets deeper into her preparation.

Of the rest He Or She was narrowly beaten at this track and trip first-up last prep but his overall record at this course and at this distance isn't flash. The wide barrier draw doesn't help either. Lord Of The Sky wasn't disgraced last start but I've got serious questions about his ability to run out a strong 1400m and he's won just one race in the last two years. Prince Of Penzance needs further. About a mile ought to do it. Charmed Harmony has beaten just two horses home in his last three starts combined. He's good at this track and distance but just doesn't appear to be travelling well at the moment. Tashbeeh looks out of his depth here and is drawn horribly.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Black Heart Bart

DANGER  

11. Palentino

FOR EXOTICS

7. Alpine Eagle
9. Tarzino
10. Tavago

12. Tally

OTHER BETS

He's Our Rokkii (Caulfield Race 2 No. 4) has the blinkers on first-up unlike last prep so I think the stable means business. He's attractively weighted for a two time Stakes winner and did win fresh at his first run in this country. His only start here at Caulfield resulted in a second to the talented Mr Individual. He's gone to another level since they put the blinkers on.

Magnapal (Caulfield Race 8 No. 4) is going for back-to-back wins in this race and he was impressive second-up in the unsuitably short G2 Lawrence Stakes a fortnight ago when strong through the line despite copping some interference late. He's now getting out to a trip that will suit and from barrier three should get a lovely passage in transit.

Allergic (Rosehil Race 8 No. 3) beat a similar field to this last start and did it with authority so I see no reason not to follow him here. Since coming to Sydney he's had five starts at 1800m or beyond for three wins and narrow seconds to Libran and Arab Dawn both in Black Type races. He has four wins on soft ground by a combined margin of more than 16 lengths.

Good punting!