G2 Lawrence Stakes Day - 13.08.2016

The blog returns but just a light hit out this week because I'm a bit on the fresh side after a long spell to recover from a busy Autumn/Winter carnival.

I'd just like to take this opportunity to wish my loyal reader(s) good luck on the punt in 2016/17 season because if you follow my tips you're going to need it.

Who's Hot? 

Dean Yendall rode five winners at Swan Hill on Monday after bagging a double at Echuca the previous day. We're only 12 days into the new season and he's already ridden more winners than I tipped in the whole of last year.

He rides Tall Ship (Race 7 No. 7) and Gold Symphony (Race 8 No. 7) at Caulfield tomorrow.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Nevis is an early scratching ***

I can't see Lord Of The Sky getting away with daylight robbery in front this time with The Cleaner engaged. I expect a few others will be pressing forward too - Entirely Platinum is drawn out and will probably try to cross while Miss Rose De Lago, Jacquinot Bay and Mahuta will want to take advantage of their good barriers. I expect the speed to be genuine.

With that in mind I think Suavito is going to get a lovely trail here and if she reproduces anything like her last fresh run (below) when she won the G1 Orr Stakes at this track and trip she'll be hard to beat. That was the second time in a row she won a feature Caulfield 1400m w-f-a contest first-up after claiming the G1 Futurity Stakes in her previous prep.

The Cleaner hasn't been seen for eight months (at least not at my place) but he did finish second in this race fresh last year when just pipped by Mourinho after trying to lead all the way. He's never won below 1600m though but he's placed in seven of nine first-up appearances. Mahuta did enough fresh to indicate he's come back in good order and he should strip fitter for the run. He's unbeaten in four runs at 1400m - two of them here at Caulfield. Miss Rose De Lago has had four runs at this track for three wins and a narrow third to Azkadellia. The inside barrier is a big plus too because it will allow her to take advantage of her early tactical speed. Jameka could easily win this if she was fully wound up but I think she's got bigger fish to fry later on in the Spring. I'm happy to risk Lord Of The Sky at 1400m and Entirely Platinum because he hasn't won for nearly two years.

Of the rougher chances Smokin' Joey was good last start given the farcical tempo. With more speed on here and out to 1400m expect him to be rattling home. Awesome Rock was pretty good fresh last campaign (above) when storming home from last to be just over three lengths off Suavito in the G1 Orr Stakes. Jacquinot Bay may be a bit out of his depth here but he is rock hard fit and in good form. Magnapal won second-up last prep. I've got a feeling he's looking for further though. Ditto Tall Ship, Berisha and Set Square.

Not the usual in depth wrap but I don't want to give myself a gut-buster first run back  after a spell because I have a long Spring campaign ahead of me.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

12. Suavito

DANGER  

2. The Cleaner

FOR EXOTICS

11. Mahuta

14. Miss Rose De Lago

1. Smokin' Joey
6. Awesome Rock

OTHER BETS

Sacred Master (Rosehill Race 6 No. 5) ran terrific final sectionals first-up in a leader dominated race and has won his last two second-up runs. I also like the fact that he's getting out to 1800m because all bar one of his wins have been at a trip. That was his first run for the Waller yard so he'll be better for the experience and he is a six-time winner in his native N.Z. 

Sword Of Light (Caulfield Race 6 No. 2) gave 4.5kg to a pretty handy colt last start and was only grabbed in the shadows of the post. Back to fillies grade here is much easier and she's well placed at the set weights plus penalty conditions. She should get a great run from barrier one. May the force be with her!

Snoopy (Rosehill Race 8 No. 12) is unbeaten in three first-up runs and unbeaten in two runs on wet tracks. The stable bypassed a tougher race in Melbourne to tackle this and he's been well found in early markets. He's down in the weights and drawn to advantage and he's been gelded now so his mind should be on racing now.

Good punting!