Black Type races aplenty this weekend and I have tips for most of them but the main focus will be on the w-f-a horses in the G1 Underwood Stakes.
Who's Hot?
In the last five weeks John O'Shea and Godolphin have racked up a host of Black Type winners with Pearls, Astern (twice), Fitou, Hauraki, Hartnell (twice) and Chetwood.
The stable has more runners chasing Stakes success this weekend in Archives (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6), Allergic (Rosehill Race 2 No. 2), Alegria (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3), Pecans (Rosehill Race 4 No. 11), Impending (Rosehill Race 5 No. 1), Retaliation (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4), Honeywine (Rosehill Race 6 No. 8), Pearls (Rosehill Race 7 No. 4), Old North (Rosehill Race 8 No. 5) and Moher (Rosehill Race 9 No. 12).
CAULFIELD
Underwood Stakes (Group 1, 1800m, w-f-a)
*** Our Ivanhowe is an early scratching ***
Black Heart Bart couldn't hold off Palentino (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last start but they gapped the rest so I don't know if you can say he didn't run the trip. Still the extra 200m has to be a concern here given his best stats are at 1400m even if he is unbeaten at Caulfield. I'm not saying he can't win but I'm sure as hell not taking $2.25 to find out.
Awesome Rock blew them away last start in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes but he did skittle half the field on the home turn so the margin may have been flattering. Having said that seventh placed Jameka came out and spanked them last week so the form can't be that bad. I'm risking him though because his 14 starts in his last four campaigns have yielded eight unplaced runs and he doesn't win often.
Lucia Valentina was fourth to Winx and Hartnell fresh in the G2 Warwick Stakes and that form looks pretty good now. She's five weeks in between runs and that's a similar path to the one they took with her in the Autumn when she smashed them second-up (below) in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Just one win and two placings from 16 starts on firm ground is the worry. The last mare to win this race was Tristarc in 1985.
History says the rest will find it hard to win because only one winner in the last 12 years did not return single figure odds.
He Or She should get the run of the race from the inside barrier. Palentino and Black Heart Bart beat him comfortably in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes but he was clearly the best of the rest and should be ready to peak here following two runs back after a near five month spell. Last campaign he won the G2 Blamey Stakes third-up beating The United States. That horse won the G1 Ranvet Stakes at his next start. His Caulfield record is poor though.
Tarzino could be a big improver here after two runs back because third-up last prep (below) he won the G1 Rosehill Guineas leaving last weekend's dominant winner Jameka in his wake. I like the wide barrier for this horse because he needs to make a long sustained run and I don't think barrier four helped him in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. Trainer Mick Price has elected to take the blinkers off for the first time. Interesting.
Tavago was one of the many who suffered interference on the turn in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes so I'm overlooking that run because he was never seriously tested in the run home. He's been a big drifter in early betting but I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a cheeky race at big odds. Three Kiwi 4-y-o's have won this race in the last five years - Lion Tamer, Ocean Park and It's A Dundeel. Two of them were Derby winners. He was well fancied last start.
The Cleaner finished a close-up third in this race last year (below) behind Mourinho and Fawkner and his only other run at the trip was a win. He'll no doubt cross and lead from the extreme outside barrier and he should do it fairly easily. The last 200m will be the test and as a 9-y-o I think if he was going to win a race like this he would have done it by now. No wins at Caulfield.
Jacquinot Bay and Prince Of Penzance crossed the line alongside Our Ivanhowe in the G1 Makybe Stakes and were arguably were finishing better yet had they all run tomorrow the former two were likely to be three times the odds of the latter. Only the winner Palentino ran a faster final 800m than Prince Of Penzance in that race.
Howard Be Thy Name did enough fresh but he'll probably need at least another run so wait a few weeks until he gets to 2000m+. He did win the Listed Port Adelaide Guineas at this distance back in April but that was the ninth run of his preparation. This lot will probably be a bit hot for him.
Locky's Selections
BEST
2. Black Heart Bart
11. Lucia Valentina
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
OTHER BETS
Divine Prophet (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) got into a bit of bother on the turn (below) in the G1 Golden Rose and although he wouldn't have troubled Astern he probably should have finished a lot closer. Team Hawkes is having a good run at the moment with their 3-y-o's and I expect this guy to be a lot closer in the run tomorrow with only five rivals and he may just have the superior turn of foot.
Archives (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6) impressed me first-up down the Flemington straight when just edged out by Saracino in the G2 Danehill Stakes. Now with a run under his belt and a one kilo swing in the weights I think he can turn the tables. He's had only one other appearance second-up and he won the Listed Hampden Stakes at Doomben four months ago and I love horses with Brisbane Winter form.
Heaven's Above (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5) got there just in time for me last start so I'm sticking solid and backing up on her. She was 1300m back to 1200m that day and giving weight to the rest so it was a big effort. She beat all bar Azkadellia (below) in the G1 Queen Of The Turf in April and they spaced the rest.
Counterattack (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6) should have won last start but didn't get clear until it was too late. (OK, so I backed him.) The new season 4-y-o's are winning everything and let's face it they've won the last six renewals of this race. He looks pitchforked in here with just the 54kg and hoop Craig Williams has won this race five times in the last 10 years. He was the best of the on-pacers (below) in a swooper dominated G1 Stradbroke Handicap.
9. Tavago
7. He Or She
8. Tarzino
7. He Or She
8. Tarzino
1. Prince Of Penzance
OTHER BETS
Divine Prophet (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) got into a bit of bother on the turn (below) in the G1 Golden Rose and although he wouldn't have troubled Astern he probably should have finished a lot closer. Team Hawkes is having a good run at the moment with their 3-y-o's and I expect this guy to be a lot closer in the run tomorrow with only five rivals and he may just have the superior turn of foot.
Leotie (Caulfield Race 5 No. 11) could nearly be unbeaten this prep after just missing second-up when flashing home from last. She made amends last start though with a dominant win here at Caulfield when stepping up to 1400m for the first time. She gets the same course and distance again and drops in weight and she possesses a dynamic turn of foot.
High Mist (Rosehill Race 6 No. 3) is bred to get over some ground being by High Chaparral and a granddaughter of G2 Adrian Knox Stakes winner Lady Mulan. He lumped a big weight to win last time and prior to that hit the line really well without much luck in the G3 Ming Dynasty Stakes. He's racing in good form and drawn to advantage.
High Mist (Rosehill Race 6 No. 3) is bred to get over some ground being by High Chaparral and a granddaughter of G2 Adrian Knox Stakes winner Lady Mulan. He lumped a big weight to win last time and prior to that hit the line really well without much luck in the G3 Ming Dynasty Stakes. He's racing in good form and drawn to advantage.
Archives (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6) impressed me first-up down the Flemington straight when just edged out by Saracino in the G2 Danehill Stakes. Now with a run under his belt and a one kilo swing in the weights I think he can turn the tables. He's had only one other appearance second-up and he won the Listed Hampden Stakes at Doomben four months ago and I love horses with Brisbane Winter form.
Counterattack (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6) should have won last start but didn't get clear until it was too late. (OK, so I backed him.) The new season 4-y-o's are winning everything and let's face it they've won the last six renewals of this race. He looks pitchforked in here with just the 54kg and hoop Craig Williams has won this race five times in the last 10 years. He was the best of the on-pacers (below) in a swooper dominated G1 Stradbroke Handicap.
Good punting!
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