G1 Makybe Diva Stakes / G1 Golden Rose Day - 10.09.2016

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Who's Hot? 

James McDonald has ridden a winning double at the last two Sydney Saturday meetings and in between he's ridden doubles at Wyong and Kembla Grange. He had six rides at Canterbury on Wednesday for a winner, three seconds, a third and a fourth. All told he's had 10 winners in the last fortnight. He's flying.

He has six rides at Rosehill tomorrow and all are chances - Salthouse (Race 2 No. 4), Allergic (Race 5 No. 3), Astern (Race 6 No. 1), Vashka (Race 7 No. 3), Pearls (Race 8 No. 1) and Invinzabeel (Race 9 No. 4).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***

Makybe Diva Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

How much did that gutbuster G1 Memsie Stakes take out of some of these horses? The stayers resuming were forced to chase a hot tempo set by Charmed Harmony and could be flat here second-up. With no real speed engaged here outside of Entirely Platinum and Ayers Rock it could become a race of tactics and who gets the good run. A bit or rain today in Melbourne but the track won't be slow.

Black Heart Bart is the short priced favourite here on the back of his dominant win (below) in the G1 Memsie Stakes. The stats seem to indicate he is a 1400m specialist (11:6-4-0) and when they've try to stretch him further he's never seemed to be quite as effective. On that basis I'm risking him here at the skinny odds because he's had nine starts beyond 1420m for no wins. Having said that he has had six top four finishes and has placed up to 2100m.

Palentino has been to Flemington three times and has been first past the post on each occasion although he did lose the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes to Tivaci on protest. He had a searching and was one of the best closers (above) when fifth to Black Heart Bart in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Stepping up to the Flemington mile third run back looks perfect because it's the exact same route he took to win the G1 Australian Guineas back in March.

Tarzino had the fastest closing splits of any horse in the G1 Memsie Stakes including the winner Black Heart Bart but he was entitled to run on given he sat back last doing no early work. Still it was a pleasing return and second-up last prep he was only just nosed out (below) by Palentino at this track and distance in the previously mentioned G1 Australian Guineas. Flemington suits with it's big, long straight.

Rising Romance was narrowly beaten in this race 12 months ago (below) and is coming off a solid performance in the G1 Memsie Stakes just like last year. She seems to have an affinity for Flemington too because she was placed in the G1 Australian Cup here earlier in the year and finished a half length second in last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes. She made good use of an inside draw last start and if she does so again she'll be right in the finish.

Alpine Eagle looked to be run off his legs before the turn in the G1 Memsie Stakes but kept battling away in the straight. That was his first run in three months and just his second in the last year so he's sure to be fitter. How much did that take out of him though? This time last year he was only three quarters of a length behind Fawkner when sixth (below) in this race off a similar lead-up.

Entirely Platinum finished third (above) to Fawkner in the same race and was coming off a second in the G1 Memsie Stakes. This year he comes off a third in the G2 Lawrence Stakes so they've taken a similar path. He should get a lovely run in front or just off the pace from the inside gate and didn't have a hard run last start chasing Charmed Harmony like many of his opponents here.

Our Ivanhowe went really well fresh last prep and might have troubled the winner Bow Creek in the G2 Peter Young Stakes if not for an interrupted passage in the home straight. He has good fresh form and he has the benefit of missing that hard run G1 Memsie Stakes. He's never won below 1600m but I expect a bold showing tomorrow. He beat Hauraki last time we saw him in the G1 Doomben Cup. 


If you like anything else you're looking at a nice payday because it's $17+ the rest.

He Or She got too far back in the G1 Memsie Stakes and never got into the race but he did finish off nicely to be alongside Tarzino at the finish. Three starts back he won the G2 Blamey Stakes at this course and distance beating The United States. He did run really well at his track and distance in the G1 Emirates Stakes last November (below) when he charged home for fifth against the pattern of the day.

Sofia Rosa will appreciate the rain yesterday because she's very adept on affected tracks but she would have liked a bit more. Unfortunately the barrier draw did her no favours and she'll most likely have to go back to the second half of the field. She's going to need luck and I still think she's looking for further but she'll be running past a few late.

Jacquinot Bay is a six-time winner at the mile and a three-time winner at Flemington and his recent form is pretty good if you overlook his unlucky run last week when Awesome Rock sideswiped half the field on the home turn. I can't have him in my selections but a big run wouldn't be a surprise.

Happy Trails was a three quarter length fifth in this race last year but he wasn't first-up. It's hard to recommend a 9-y-o in barrier 11 who's won one race in almost three years even if his last three wins all came at Flemington and were at G1 level. Prince Of Penzance will just be getting warmed up when they pass the winning post and wondering why they aren't going around for another lap. The barrier is awful too.  Ayers Rock will struggle at this level I feel.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

4. Our Ivanhowe

DANGER  

3. Black Heart Bart

FOR EXOTICS

12. Rising Romance

10. Palentino
6. Entirely Platinum

9. Tarzino
7. He Or She

OTHER BETS

Divine Prophet (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4) is my tip for the G1 Golden Rose. I can't get over his last-to-first win fresh and though I concede Omei Sword, Astern and Yankee Rose are chances I respect the fact that the stable bypassed this race with Star Turn leaving this bloke as their sole representative. He's clearly the No. 1 Draft Pick as far as Team Hawkes is concerned and they are having a good trot with 3-y-o colts.

Heavens Above (Rosehill Race 8 No. 2) showed she was a high quality mare last campaign when she beat all bar Azkadellia (below) in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. She had a super Autumn with six starts for two wins and four placings and she gets a six kilo swing in the weights on Pearls from their last start meeting. She should get a lovely run from barrier three and she looks well placed with 56kg.

Kinglike (Flemington Race 6 No. 6) won the G2 Danehill Stakes first-up on this day last year over the very same distance. His only two other fresh runs resulted in a narrow second to English last campaign in the G2 Challenge Stakes and a second on debut. He looks attractively weighted with just 53kg for a horse who was less than a length off Japonisme and Counterattack last start in the G2 Arrowfield Stakes during The Championships.

Good punting!