Winx is going to be hard to top but four G1 races on the one card might go close.
It's going to be a busy week for me too with four meetings in the next eight days.
It's going to be a busy week for me too with four meetings in the next eight days.
Who's Hot?
Hoop Steven Arnold is in a rich vein of form with seven winners and five placings from his last 21 rides including Black Type victories on Palazzo Pubblico, Sweet Sherry and Conchita.
He has a few rides at Moonee Valley tonight and tomorrow he combines again with Palazzo Pubblico (Race 3 No. 8) as well as Manolo Blahniq (Race 5 No. 10), Morvada (Race 7 No. 5) and The United States (Race 8 No. 2) at Flemington.
FLEMINGTON
V.R.C. Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
I think the strongest form line for this race is last weekend's G2 Vase at Moonee Valley so I've got the favourite Sacred Elixir on top. I tipped him in this blog back when he won the G1 J.J.Atkins at Eagle Farm in June and he has stayer written all over him. Swear comes via the Sydney form with a last start second to Yankee Rose in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes and that filly franked the form with her gutsy third (below) in last weekend's G1 Winx Charity Benefit Cox Plate.
I thought Morvada stuck on well behind Sacred Elixir last Saturday given he faced the breeze most of the way and that it was a real slogging test on that deteriorating track. So Si Bon was also good in the same race but he just seemed to run out of puff late. Will he run a strong 2500m? Prized Icon was only so-so in the same race but could improve back to a dry surface and he's drawn to get a lovely run. Silvera was just a pass mark but jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in fine form.
The other form reference is the G3 Caulfiled Classic a fortnight ago. Inference was the best for mine after getting a long way back in a dawdling affair and being forced wide around the corner. He was still chipping away at the end though as was Rocketeer but he did save ground by cutting the corner. Unfortunately they've drawn the outside two barriers. Beach Life made a mid-race move and was still there whacking away at the end. He was the last one to pull up. Nicholas Hall and Ciaron Maher combined a fortnight ago to win the G1 Caulfield Cup. Wine Bush was just a run. He sat handy in a race with no speed and horses behind him ran past him. Hugh Bowman has won this race three times. Kent got way too far back but his closing splits were comparable to those of the placegetters. Highlad looked pretty plain but he was stuck wide throughout and running into that howling northerly wind.
The Listed Geelong Classic form doesn't look strong but Tumultuous was strong late from well back in a race where the winner sat up near the lead. Horrible draw though. Hollywood Mo plugged away too and the Perry stable did have a winner at Moonee Valley last weekend. He's fared much better in the barrier draw. I think Captain Duffy will struggle to run out 2500m on that run but he gets every chance to prove me wrong from the favourable draw. All Out Of Love had a similar run to the winner but faded badly late (maybe a problem with his Air Supply?) so I can't possibly have him here.
The other four are emergencies and good luck to connections if they get a run but I couldn't back them in a pink fit.
I thought Morvada stuck on well behind Sacred Elixir last Saturday given he faced the breeze most of the way and that it was a real slogging test on that deteriorating track. So Si Bon was also good in the same race but he just seemed to run out of puff late. Will he run a strong 2500m? Prized Icon was only so-so in the same race but could improve back to a dry surface and he's drawn to get a lovely run. Silvera was just a pass mark but jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in fine form.
The other form reference is the G3 Caulfiled Classic a fortnight ago. Inference was the best for mine after getting a long way back in a dawdling affair and being forced wide around the corner. He was still chipping away at the end though as was Rocketeer but he did save ground by cutting the corner. Unfortunately they've drawn the outside two barriers. Beach Life made a mid-race move and was still there whacking away at the end. He was the last one to pull up. Nicholas Hall and Ciaron Maher combined a fortnight ago to win the G1 Caulfield Cup. Wine Bush was just a run. He sat handy in a race with no speed and horses behind him ran past him. Hugh Bowman has won this race three times. Kent got way too far back but his closing splits were comparable to those of the placegetters. Highlad looked pretty plain but he was stuck wide throughout and running into that howling northerly wind.
The Listed Geelong Classic form doesn't look strong but Tumultuous was strong late from well back in a race where the winner sat up near the lead. Horrible draw though. Hollywood Mo plugged away too and the Perry stable did have a winner at Moonee Valley last weekend. He's fared much better in the barrier draw. I think Captain Duffy will struggle to run out 2500m on that run but he gets every chance to prove me wrong from the favourable draw. All Out Of Love had a similar run to the winner but faded badly late (maybe a problem with his Air Supply?) so I can't possibly have him here.
The other four are emergencies and good luck to connections if they get a run but I couldn't back them in a pink fit.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Sacred Elixir
DANGER
3. Swear
FOR EXOTICS
5. Morvada
6. Inference
13. Beach Life
*** There are no early scratchings ***
6. Inference
13. Beach Life
4. Rocketeer
Cantala Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Only four favourites have been successful in the last 16 years with the other 12 paying $9 or better. Nine of them returned $13+. Stats could be largely irrelevant here though given the race was previously run on the final Saturday of the Carnival.
So I'm sticking with He's Our Rokkii once again. The last four winners of this race have carried 55.5kg+ and the last three have been 4-y-o's. Six wins and a second from seven starts since they put the shades on. Trainer David Hayes has won this race three times before.
Mackintosh comes via that very strong G1 Epsom Handicap (below) when he looked to have it won everywhere but on the line. He beat home Happy Clapper who has since been a good in G1 Cox Plate and Vanbrugh and Fabrizio both of whom have since won. "Magic Man" Joao Moreira has ridden him once for one win.
Le Romain and McCreery also ran well in the same race (above) and Le Romain meets them both better at the weights. He won't be the bunny dragging them up to the tearaway leader here either. McCreery should get the run of the race from gate three. The 3-y-o Seaburge gets in with a featherweight and an inside draw and he went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Caulfield Guineas at his last start. Palentino has won a G1 Australian Guineas and a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) at this course and distance. In the latter he defeated Black Heart Bart. He won the Listed Hilton On The Park Stakes here during Cup Week last year. He can bounce back from his last start flop.
I could also make cases for others like The United States because he was simply awesome last weekend, Voodoo Lad just never runs poorly, Bon Aurum because McEvoy stays solid and gets off The United States, Good Project meets Voodoo Lad 4kg better off for their last clash, Tivaci was solid last start and Great Esteem has Winx form!
You can't tip them all.
So I'm sticking with He's Our Rokkii once again. The last four winners of this race have carried 55.5kg+ and the last three have been 4-y-o's. Six wins and a second from seven starts since they put the shades on. Trainer David Hayes has won this race three times before.
Mackintosh comes via that very strong G1 Epsom Handicap (below) when he looked to have it won everywhere but on the line. He beat home Happy Clapper who has since been a good in G1 Cox Plate and Vanbrugh and Fabrizio both of whom have since won. "Magic Man" Joao Moreira has ridden him once for one win.
Le Romain and McCreery also ran well in the same race (above) and Le Romain meets them both better at the weights. He won't be the bunny dragging them up to the tearaway leader here either. McCreery should get the run of the race from gate three. The 3-y-o Seaburge gets in with a featherweight and an inside draw and he went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Caulfield Guineas at his last start. Palentino has won a G1 Australian Guineas and a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) at this course and distance. In the latter he defeated Black Heart Bart. He won the Listed Hilton On The Park Stakes here during Cup Week last year. He can bounce back from his last start flop.
I could also make cases for others like The United States because he was simply awesome last weekend, Voodoo Lad just never runs poorly, Bon Aurum because McEvoy stays solid and gets off The United States, Good Project meets Voodoo Lad 4kg better off for their last clash, Tivaci was solid last start and Great Esteem has Winx form!
You can't tip them all.
Locky's Selections
BEST
8. He's Our Rokkii
DANGER
3. Mackintosh
FOR EXOTICS
2. Le Romain
6. McCreery
5. Seaburge
11. Palentino
6. McCreery
5. Seaburge
11. Palentino
OTHER BETS
Astern (Flemington Race 5 No. 3) has to contest what I regard as the race of the day and it won't be easy with the likes of Extreme Choice, Star Turn, Russian Revolution and Flying Artie engaged but I doubt he'll ever be $4 again. He beat Star Turn fresh and meets him 1kg better off here, then he thumped them in the G1 Golden Rose leaving subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Divine Prophet in his wake. He couldn't win last start given the tempo but his time for the last 600m was Black Caviar-esque.
Good punting!
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