Winx vs. Hartnell. Bring it on.
I flew out for Melbourne this morning to enjoy two fantastic days of racing so I'm keeping it brief.
I flew out for Melbourne this morning to enjoy two fantastic days of racing so I'm keeping it brief.
Who's Hot?
Jockey Hugh Bowman has had a quiet start to the Melbourne Spring Carnival with his only winner outside the mighty mare being Wine Bush.
He won't get many better opportunities to reverse the trend than at Moonee Valley this weekend with rides like Fell Swoop (Race 7 No. 8) tonight and Felines (Race 2 No. 1), Lady Le Fay (Race 5 No. 1), Sezanne (Race 6 No. 3), Who Shot Thebarman (Race 8 No. 3), Winx (Race 9 No. 8) and Veladero (Race 10 No. 3) tomorrow.
MOONEE VALLEY
Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Buffering kicks through from barrier two to lead. That should gift Fell Swoop a good trail from barrier three with Chautauqua drawn one and likely to drift back. Holler comes across from the seven gate to sit outside Buffering which drags Capitalist and Japonisme forward into pretty good positions I would think. Rebel Dane sits midfield from the handy gate while bad draws force Lucky Hussler, English and The Quarterback to go back. Under The Louvre will be back there too even with the good gate.
Chautauqua won this race (below) last year. Rebel Dane was a two length third in that race with Buffering a further length and a half adrift in fifth.
The last major run at this track and distance was the G1 William Reid Stakes (below) back in March. Holler lead all the way before being bloused late by Flamberge. The eye catcher was Japonisme who came from well back in a leader dominated race to finish a narrow third. The best run in the race however came from The Quarterback after he blew the start before rattling home into fifth. Lucky Hussler was soundly beaten.
Capitalist is coming off a third to Russian Revolution and Astern in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. He gets a good pull in the weights at the w-f-a scale and Extreme Choice beat up on a lot of these under similar conditions last start in the G1 Moir Stakes. English was on the heels of Takedown, Our Boy Malachi and Danish Twist last start and they franked that form at Caulfield last weekend. Fell Swoop is the only non-G1 winner in the race but he was good fresh in fast time against a lightly weighted 3-y-o and has won his only go here.
Chautauqua won this race (below) last year. Rebel Dane was a two length third in that race with Buffering a further length and a half adrift in fifth.
The last major run at this track and distance was the G1 William Reid Stakes (below) back in March. Holler lead all the way before being bloused late by Flamberge. The eye catcher was Japonisme who came from well back in a leader dominated race to finish a narrow third. The best run in the race however came from The Quarterback after he blew the start before rattling home into fifth. Lucky Hussler was soundly beaten.
Capitalist is coming off a third to Russian Revolution and Astern in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. He gets a good pull in the weights at the w-f-a scale and Extreme Choice beat up on a lot of these under similar conditions last start in the G1 Moir Stakes. English was on the heels of Takedown, Our Boy Malachi and Danish Twist last start and they franked that form at Caulfield last weekend. Fell Swoop is the only non-G1 winner in the race but he was good fresh in fast time against a lightly weighted 3-y-o and has won his only go here.
Locky's Selections
BEST
11. Capitalist
DANGER
2. Chautauqua
FOR EXOTICS
10. English
1. Buffering
8. Fell Swoop
*** There are no early scratchings ***
1. Buffering
8. Fell Swoop
W.S. Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Not much pace here. Vadamos leads from barrier two with Black Heart Bart not far away. Yankee Rose drifts back from gate one but not too far I wouldn't think. Winx lands in a good spot. Hartnell probably strides up to join her or at least not be too far away. Black Heart Bart drawn to his immediate inside helps. Happy Trails, Lucia Valentina and Hauraki drift back from awkward draws. Happy Clapper and Awesome Rock midfield with cover.
I can't go past Winx. She just gets a lovely trail here and her form is impeccable. Hard to see anything coming from behind her and running her down. Hartnell has looked untouchable in his last three starts but I just feel he'll have to do more work in the run. Black Heart Bart can sit handy in what looks a muddling affair and I like the way he knuckled down when Winx ran past him last start. Vadamos will be in or near the front for a long way for "Magic Man" Joao Moreira and the internationals have performed well in recent years (Adelaide, Highland Reel). Happy Clapper has been ticking away nicely for this and looks like he'll get a nice run midfield. Yankee Rose is a freakish type but I can't ignore the poor record 3-y-o fillies have in this race. The light weight and inside draw will help her though.
Hauraki was devastating coming from last to win last time out but he'll do it tough from a wide draw with no pace on. I'm leaving Lucia Valentina out for the same reason although if the track does get really wet she comes back into calculations. Happy Trails flashed home behind Hartnell last start but like the aforementioned two his racing pattern and the outside barrier will force him to be ridden for luck. Awesome Rock has been racing honestly in top company but this is another level.
I can't go past Winx. She just gets a lovely trail here and her form is impeccable. Hard to see anything coming from behind her and running her down. Hartnell has looked untouchable in his last three starts but I just feel he'll have to do more work in the run. Black Heart Bart can sit handy in what looks a muddling affair and I like the way he knuckled down when Winx ran past him last start. Vadamos will be in or near the front for a long way for "Magic Man" Joao Moreira and the internationals have performed well in recent years (Adelaide, Highland Reel). Happy Clapper has been ticking away nicely for this and looks like he'll get a nice run midfield. Yankee Rose is a freakish type but I can't ignore the poor record 3-y-o fillies have in this race. The light weight and inside draw will help her though.
Hauraki was devastating coming from last to win last time out but he'll do it tough from a wide draw with no pace on. I'm leaving Lucia Valentina out for the same reason although if the track does get really wet she comes back into calculations. Happy Trails flashed home behind Hartnell last start but like the aforementioned two his racing pattern and the outside barrier will force him to be ridden for luck. Awesome Rock has been racing honestly in top company but this is another level.
Locky's Selections
BEST
8. Winx
DANGER
3. Hartnell
FOR EXOTICS
2. Black Heart Bart
6. Vadamos
5. Happy Clapper
6. Vadamos
5. Happy Clapper
OTHER BETS
The United States (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 1) won the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup on this day last year beating Prince Of Penzance. That horse went out at his next start and won a pretty handy midweek welter at Flemington over two miles. You couldn't have missed his eye-catching run fresh in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes when he got pushed wide on the turn. Narrowly beaten by He Or She in the G2 Blamey Stakes second-up last prep.
Gallante (Moonee Valley Race 8 No. 1) chased home Jameka last start and that form is looking smoking hot now! He looks like he'll get a lovely passage here from barrier four and hoop Kerrin McEvoy is riding well. Straight to 2500m second-up is no concern because he took a similar route in the Autumn when third in the G2 Manion Cup. Team Williams have won this race three times with Zipping, Gallic and The United States.
Prized Icon (Moonee Valley Race 10 No. 1) was only a half length behind Yankee Rose in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes last start and that filly heads to the G1 Cox Plate. He was unlucky the start prior when third in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. Has a victory over Divine Prophet in the G1 Champagne Stakes to his name. Drawn to get the gun run. Stable had a Stakes winner last weekend in Good Standing.
Good punting!
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