G1 Emirates Stakes Day - 05.11.2016

Watch the first two races before you have a bet at Flemington tomorrow.

Yesterday the crown of the track was off and you had to be either coming down the outside in the straight races or hard up against the rail on the circle.

Just a couple of tips here as I'll be betting on the run.

Who's Hot? 

Flemington has been a happy hunting ground for Team Snowden the last few days with a double on Cup Day (Flippant and Artistry) and another winner (Redzel) yesterday.

They have two runners at Flemington tomorrow - Niccolance (Race 4 No. 4) and Happy Hannah (Race 6 No. 16).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers. ***

Emirates Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm tipping Scottish as the one to beat. He beat all bar Jameka (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup after a torrid run and back to 2000m will suit him much better as will the weight scale. He is drawn well and should either lead or be just off the pace and that was the place to be yesterday. Good Standing is another who profiles similarly and has the added advantage of getting at least 7.5kg from all his rivals except Seaburge. He faces a big test here taking on open company but the stable identified this race early and he's been given a good gap.

The United States heads to the races for the third weekend in a row. If he has taken no harm from the tough prep he is one of the main chances here but I'm just concerned he's going to be back and forced to come wide on a track that may not be suiting horses with that racing pattern. He was huge last Saturday in the G1 Cantala Stakes and the stable and jockey won The Cup on Tuesday.

Vanbrugh is my best roughie because 2000m is his best distance and he has also had a freshen-up since his last start win. Chris Waller and Ben Melham have combined a few times already for Black Type success this Spring. His run in the G1 Epsom two starts back (below) was solid and that has been a strong from race with Le Romain (5th), McCreery (6th) and Fabrizio (10th) all performing well subsequently. 

Endless Drama is having his first run in Australia but his overseas form is top notch. He absolutely bolted in three weeks ago in a trial and Chris Waller did produce another international Arod fresh yesterday for an unlucky second. Palentino has had two forgivable runs at his last two starts because he didn't handle the Sydney way in the G1 Epsom and he got skittled at a vital stage last weekend in the G1 Cantala Stakes. He races well here at Headquarters but has never won beyond 1600m. Neither has Tivaci but he did find the line well last weekend. That was a handicap though and he rises 6.5kg here. He is another with very good Flemington form.

I may be deranged but I'm going to risk all those coming via the G1 Cox Plate (below) because it was a real gutbuster. Hartnell and Yankee Rose looked a bit flat at their next runs when well fancied so I'm leaving out Happy Trails, Hauraki, Happy Clapper, Vadamos and Awesome Rock.

Seaburge was great in the G1 Caulfield Guineas but was pretty plain last week when taking on the older brigade even with the massive pull in the weights. He's stepping up to 2000m for the first time too and I can't find a place for him.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

7. Scottish

DANGER  

12. Good Standing

FOR EXOTICS

3. The United States
10. Vanbrugh
8. Endless Drama

5. Vadamos

OTHER BETS

Ulmann (Flemington Race 9 No. 3) is racing in great heart. From seven starts this campaign he's notched three wins (including two at this track) and placings to The United States, Bon Aurum and Duke Of Brunswick. His only miss was on a Heavy 9. He's a four time winner at 1400m and drops a kilo on his last run despite coming back from a G2 w-f-a race to a handicap. That is usually a good recipe for success.

Good punting!