VRC Derby Day. Nine races - four G1's, two G2's and three G3's. Possibly the best day of racing all year.
Having said that it's going to be hard to top Winx and Chautauqua last weekend.
A more concise format this week because there is so much to get through. My apologies if the formatting is screwed up and some comes up in CAPS but I have done something unwittingly and don't have the IT knowledge to fix it.
Having said that it's going to be hard to top Winx and Chautauqua last weekend.
A more concise format this week because there is so much to get through. My apologies if the formatting is screwed up and some comes up in CAPS but I have done something unwittingly and don't have the IT knowledge to fix it.
Who's Hot?
I'm going a bit left field here and naming Ascot trainer Adam Durrant.
In the last nine days he's had seven winners and five placegetters from 18 starters.
He doesn't often leave Perth but he has brought Kia Ora Koutou (Flemington Race 7 No. 3) over for the G1 VRC Derby. He also has quite a few runners at the Ascot meeting too.
FLEMINGTON
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of rain with possibly some heavy falls in the afternoon.***
VRC Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
These boys are going to appreciate the fact that none of the smart fillies are entered.
Tarzino just keeps putting in incredible performances to win despite bad luck in running but I can't take $2.50. Efficient in 2006 is the last favourite to win and some pretty good types have been beaten at skinny quotes - think Marching, Whobegotyou, Manawanui, It's A Dundeel and Hampton Court. He can win but I won't be backing him. Extra Choice won the Listed Geelong Classic last start over 2200m and he didn't have a soft run. I think he'll stay the trip. Pay Up Bro was third in that race and hit the line hard. 2500m looks right up his alley. Kia Ora Koutou is bred to stay. His sire Blackfriars won this race in 1999 and his maternal line boasts two G1 Melbourne Cup winners because his dam Kia Ora Miss is a daughter of Jeune and a granddaughter of At Talaq. Unbeaten back home in Perth and last start he beat older horses in a 2200m race as an early season 3-y-o which doesn't happen often. Get The Picture charged late behind G1 VRC Oaks favourite Sacred Eye last start (below) and is another who looks like the mile and a half will suit.
Lizard Island was left in front too soon (above) when Ayer's Rock threw up the white flag before the turn in the G3 Caulfield Classic. He was only run down on the line by Sacred Eye. I just wonder if he has the pedigree to see out the trip because he's by Sebring out of a Choisir mare. Etymology is different. I think he'll stay all day. His sire New Approach and his grandsire Galileo both won the G1 Epsom Derby. He ran on well behind Sacred Eye and Lizard Island without threatening and I like the fact that he can take a position in his races where are few of his opponents lack early tactical speed. Jadeer had the perfect trail last start and loomed to win at Geelong but I thought Extra Choice and Pay Up Bro performed better given they had tougher runs in transit. Ditto Ragnaar.
Locky's Selections
3. Kia Ora Koutou
7. Tarzino
8. Get The Picture
13. Pay Up Bro
8. Get The Picture
13. Pay Up Bro
Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** Fawkner and Magic Hurricane are early scratchings ***
I'm looking to the G1 Cox Plate form here because five of the last six winners of this race came via that path.
Happy Trails won this race last year and forget his run last Saturday (below) because he was back and wide on a track the was clearly favouring the rail and horses near the lead. At his previous run he split Criterion and Mongolian Khan and he's a three-time G1 winner here at Flemington. Pornichet was good in the same race but did get a lovely rails run and got carted into the race by Winx. On his G1 Doomben Cup form he can be prominent here. Gailo Chop was sound too given he was another who had a torrid run and Flemington will suit him better than Moonee Valley.
Contributer will appreciate a race without The Cleaner where he doesn't have to chase a hot speed. Stratum Star proved he can run a strong 2000m last start (and with a big weight too) so he's earned his shot at w-f-a. Set Square was good in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance. Ecuador was second to Winx last start in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Flamingo Star was unlucky in the G1 Toorak Handicap but flew late.
Locky's Selections
2. Happy Trails
4. Pornichet
7. Gailo Chop
5. Contributer
*** Fawkner and Magic Hurricane are early scratchings ***
I'm looking to the G1 Cox Plate form here because five of the last six winners of this race came via that path.
Contributer will appreciate a race without The Cleaner where he doesn't have to chase a hot speed. Stratum Star proved he can run a strong 2000m last start (and with a big weight too) so he's earned his shot at w-f-a. Set Square was good in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance. Ecuador was second to Winx last start in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Flamingo Star was unlucky in the G1 Toorak Handicap but flew late.
Locky's Selections
2. Happy Trails
4. Pornichet
4. Pornichet
7. Gailo Chop
5. Contributer
5. Contributer
Myer Classic (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o and up fillies and mares w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This has been a funny race in the last 11 years with five winners starting favourite at $4 or less while the other six winners returned $16 or more.
I'm tipping Stay With Me will be in the finish but I can't tip her on top. I'm just harking back to 2004 when Alinghi got beaten at odds-on when everyone thought as a three-year-old at the w-f-a scale she was a certainty. This race is almost always won by a seasoned mare. Royal Descent could be that mare. Clearly the w-f-a scale favours her more than anyone here and she's back to the mile which seems to be her best trip. If you forgive Fenway one bad run when something clearly wasn't right she's juicy odds. Abidewithme drops back to fillies and mares grade after two good runs behind the boys (below) in G1's when she had no luck.
La Passe is flying at the moment and I love mares in form. Solicit went well first-up behind her and has a good second-up record. I can't see what Politeness has done so terribly wrong that she's been put up at $13. I could say the same about May's Dream. Azkadellia was good against the bias at Moonee Valley last week. Jessy Belle just keeps running honest races.
Locky's Selections
1. Royal Descent
15. Stay With Me
12. Fenway
9. Abidewithme
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This has been a funny race in the last 11 years with five winners starting favourite at $4 or less while the other six winners returned $16 or more.
Locky's Selections
1. Royal Descent
15. Stay With Me
15. Stay With Me
12. Fenway
9. Abidewithme
9. Abidewithme
Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Exosphere dominates the betting here and I have to tip him on top despite the short price. He's been simply outstanding in his three wins this campaign and he's beaten the likes of Press Statement and Speak Fondly along the way and they are subsequent G1 winners. On that basis Sebring Sun has to be in the mix somewhere on his last start third (below) to Exosphere in the G1 Golden Rose. So too Counterattack who has since won. Hellbent chased him home on that occasion and didn't have much luck and they nearly broke the track record.
That's my Top Four but I admit there are others who will have their supporters. You could make cases for Ready For Victory, Super One, Keen Array, Japonisme, Dal Cielo and Mogador.
Locky's Selections
1. Exosphere
8. Sebring Sun
6. Counterattack
11. Hellbent
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Exosphere dominates the betting here and I have to tip him on top despite the short price. He's been simply outstanding in his three wins this campaign and he's beaten the likes of Press Statement and Speak Fondly along the way and they are subsequent G1 winners. On that basis Sebring Sun has to be in the mix somewhere on his last start third (below) to Exosphere in the G1 Golden Rose. So too Counterattack who has since won. Hellbent chased him home on that occasion and didn't have much luck and they nearly broke the track record.
That's my Top Four but I admit there are others who will have their supporters. You could make cases for Ready For Victory, Super One, Keen Array, Japonisme, Dal Cielo and Mogador.
Locky's Selections
1. Exosphere
8. Sebring Sun
6. Counterattack
8. Sebring Sun
6. Counterattack
11. Hellbent
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