I tipped so badly last week that my audience stormed out and demanded his money back.
But it was worth it just to watch the bookies get absolutely smashed by the punters at Randwick with eight of the nine favourites successful and the other winner a well tried $3.60 second elect.
It was also worth it simply to see James McDonald, John O'Shea and the entire Godolphin operation put on an absolute clinic with five Stakes winners including the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.
We also saw a few top quality horses strut their stuff with Exosphere winning as he pleased in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes followed by Terravista and his effortless victory in the G2 Premiere Stakes before Winks overcame another luckless run to dash away with the G1 Epsom Handicap.
Four majors at Caulfield tomorrow - the G1 Caulfield Guineas, G1 Thousand Guineas, G1 Caulfield Stakes and G1 Toorak Handicap - plus two G2's, two G3's and a Listed race plus we also have the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.
But it was worth it just to watch the bookies get absolutely smashed by the punters at Randwick with eight of the nine favourites successful and the other winner a well tried $3.60 second elect.
It was also worth it simply to see James McDonald, John O'Shea and the entire Godolphin operation put on an absolute clinic with five Stakes winners including the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.
We also saw a few top quality horses strut their stuff with Exosphere winning as he pleased in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes followed by Terravista and his effortless victory in the G2 Premiere Stakes before Winks overcame another luckless run to dash away with the G1 Epsom Handicap.
Four majors at Caulfield tomorrow - the G1 Caulfield Guineas, G1 Thousand Guineas, G1 Caulfield Stakes and G1 Toorak Handicap - plus two G2's, two G3's and a Listed race plus we also have the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.
Who's Hot?
It's impossible to ignore trainer John O'Shea and the Godolphin Team after their five winners last weekend at Randwick. All were at Black Type level with the highlight being the victory of Magic Hurricane in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.
* Unfortunately stable jockey James McDonald is unavailable this weekend after copping a six meeting careless riding ban
The Royal Blue will be chasing more Stakes prizemoney in Melbourne tomorrow with Thar (Race 1 No. 5), Contributer (Race 6 No. 4) and Shards (Race 9 No. 7) but they also have runners at Randwick and Kembla Grange.
CAULFIELD
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny morning with the chance of a late afternoon shower.***
Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Press Statement: In the last 10 years only two winners have returned more than $7.50. Six of the last nine were coming off a win at their previous run.
Press Statement cruised to victory last start (below) in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes. Prior to that he was a desperately unlucky fifth in the G1 Golden Rose behind Exosphere and Speak Fondly and that form is looking rock solid now. He's dominating the market but a few hotpots have been rolled in the last decade including Rich Enuff, Pierro, Denman and Court Command. The wide barrier (14) is my only concern.
You'll get some juicy odds if you like anything outside the favourite and recent winners All Too Hard (2012) and Starspangledbanner (2009) did return double figure dividends so let's start with a look at the traditional lead-up race the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Six of the last ten winners of this feature came off a top four finish in that race.
Bon Aurum won the race (below) and he's come a long way in a short time since making his debut three and a half months ago in an Echuca maiden. Prior to that he beat Lizard Island and that colt has since romped in by three lengths. He's an adaptable type who can lead, sit close to the speed or come from the back but he has been up for a while and is trying to do it all in his first prep. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won this race twice in the last four years.
Tulsa was the eye-catcher behind Bon Aurum when he flashed home from last to just miss. He gives every indication that he's looking for 1600m now but like Press Statement he is going to have to overcome a horror barrier. Only one winner in the last nine years has drawn a double figure gate but given his racing pattern it may not be the end of the world because he's going to drift back anyway.  |
| Bon Aurum hangs on to edge out Tulsa in the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude |
Dal Cielo did well to hang on for third behind Bon Aurum and Tulsa last start after setting a pretty hot speed in front. If he can get softer lead tomorrow he'll give them something to chase but like many of these he is stepping out beyond 1400m for the first time so the journey has to be a query. You have to respect the stable though because Murray Baker has had Spring G1 successes at Caulfield in recent years with Lion Tamer and It's A Dundeel.
Sovereign Nation (7th beaten two and a half lengths) chased them all home that day and has since franked the form by winning the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes at his next start. That race has been an OK guide in the last few years. Whobegotyou (2008) is the last horse to complete the double but recent winners Cararra (2009), Pierro (2012) and Divine Calling (2013) all finished second in this race.
Ready For Victory is becoming a costly conveyance because he's started $4.25 or shorter at all three runs this campaign without winning. He looks to me like a horse who is looking for at least 1600m because last start he had to be ridden hard the whole way and still didn't get warm until it was all over. I like the way he ran through the line and blinkers on first time might just switch him on.
Basset has form around Press Statement (below) via the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He's had an identical campaign this time in with just the one start over 1100m for a win then straight to the G1 mile. Peter Moody knows more about training winners than I do but it seems an odd preparation and I just wonder if he is seasoned enough to win this at just his fourth career start. On the plus side he will be close to the lead making his own luck
Of the rest Tarzino won well last start but I have to query the form given the second and third placegetters were thrashed at Flemington last Sunday. Shards was no match for Press Statement last time out but he beat third easily and the Godolphin operation showed last week that their horses are always ready to peak on major race days. Rageese has form behind Exosphere, Speak Fondly and Press Statement so he has place claims. Lizard Island has been on the heels of Bon Aurum twice this prep and is proven at the mile after bolting in last start albeit in a Pakenham maiden. Last Bullet matched motors with Ready For Victory over the final stages last start and was less than two lengths from winner despite still being last at the 200m. He ran the fastest final furlong and only Tulsa had a better sectional time for the last 800m.
Locky's Selections
1. Press Statement
15. Tulsa
8. Sovereign Nation
10. Last Bullet
Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
8. Sovereign Nation
10. Last Bullet
Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** There are no an early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Fawkner: In the last 15 renewals of this race only three winners paid more than $7 and four of the last six winners came via the G1 Underwood Stakes and finished in the first two.
Pornichet really gave Kermadec something to chase last start (above) and he looked home when he skipped clear topping the rise. That run should top him off nicely for this and let's face it he was never going to hit his peak until he got to the 2000m. He's three from three at this trip with his last being a dominant two and a half length victory in this year's G1 Doomben Cup. He's the likely leader in a small, w-f-a field which looks devoid of pace and that could be an advantage as we've seen in recent weeks.
Fawkner won this race last year and 12 months earlier claimed the G1 Caulfield Cup so he's shown an undeniable liking for this circuit. He's had the perfect preparation for this with a first-up victory over the mile in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes followed by a narrow second to Mourinho (below) in the G1 Underwood Stakes at 1800m. I loved the way he worked through the line and he looks like a horse crying out for 2000m. He has the ability to sit handy to the speed if they want to walk in front which is a big tick.
Fawkner won this race last year and 12 months earlier claimed the G1 Caulfield Cup so he's shown an undeniable liking for this circuit. He's had the perfect preparation for this with a first-up victory over the mile in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes followed by a narrow second to Mourinho (below) in the G1 Underwood Stakes at 1800m. I loved the way he worked through the line and he looks like a horse crying out for 2000m. He has the ability to sit handy to the speed if they want to walk in front which is a big tick.
Criterion was second in this race last year and went on in the Autumn to destroy a top quality field (below) in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He then headed overseas for three starts and did manage to grab third in the G1 QEII Cup in Hong Kong so he is clearly a high quality animal. He is going into this having not appeared on a racetrack for more than seven weeks and I doubt the stable had this race in mind as their major Spring target so I expect he'll take plenty of benefit from the run. Still I won't fall of my chair if he runs a cheeky race.
Mongolian Khan was never going to be at his best until he got to 2000m+ so his first two runs this prep have been super under the circumstances. He's contested the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) and was just over a length and a half off the winner on both occasions. In the latter he recorded the equal fastest final 200m (11.65) with Fawkner. Won this year's G1 ATC Derby beating Hauraki, Volkstok'n'barrell and Preferment.
A quick look at the others and the next best is clearly Happy Trails but he has only won once here at Caulfield in 11 attempts and that was four years ago. He does however seem to like the 2000m at this time of year because he won last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes and the previous Spring he claimed the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Entirely Platinum looks the likely leader and could get some cheap sectionals in front but I just think the rest of these have many, many lengths on him.
Locky's Selections
2. Fawkner
7. Kermadec
5. Pornichet
7. Kermadec
5. Pornichet
1. Criterion
Last Saturday was the first metro meeting this season that Chris Waller did not train at least a winning double but I guess if you're only going to win one race on the day it may as well be a G1 Epsom Handicap with Winx. With the focus shifting to Melbourne this week expect him to resume his domination of the Sydney ranks so I'll take at look at some of his better chances.
Tremezzina (Randwick Race 2 No. 6) drops back from the Listed Reginald Allen Quality won by Alart to a BM70 here so she does look well placed. She finished alongside Flamboyant Lass and Ocean Tempest in that race and they have since contested the G1 Flight Stakes last weekend with the former just over a length off the winner Speak Fondly. She's found the line really well in her two starts this campaign and looks ready to win here.
Ballet Suite (Randwick Race 7 No. 5) has had two runs back now and both have been good behind the likes of Sadler's Lake and Music Magnate. Third-up in her first prep she won at 1600m and third run in last campaign (below) she was a closing one and a half length fourth to Fenway in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes at 40/1. Back to fillies and mares grade she looks well placed here with just 55kg. She's two from two at the mile including one here at Randwick.
Good Project (Randwick Race 8 No. 2) beat Ballet Suite home last start when second to Music Magnate and that horse has form around the likes of Fell Swoop and Inz'n'out. He races earlier in the day so that will give us some sort of guide to this horse. He is a bit of a "non-winner" with just three victories from the 17 starts but he has been placed on nine occasions. He should get a cosy run behind the leader from barrier one and his Randwick 1400m record is good.
THE OTHER MAJOR RACES
Toorak Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
*** Amicus is an early scratching ***
Many of these are coming via the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes so it may pay to have a look at that race again. Especially given that six of the last 11 winners have come through it including the last three in a row and all of them finished top five.
Stratum Star (1st) had to overcome a wide barrier to get up in the final bound and the way he finished the race off indicates to me that the extra 200m is no concern. While he has yet to win at this distance in three starts he has never missed a place including a close-up third in the G1 Australian Guineas last March. Disposition (2nd) meets Stratum Star 1.5kg better off here for his last stride defeat. Just the one start at 1600m for a narrow second to Rommel in the G2 W.A. Guineas and he has been placed at 1800m behind Moriarty in the G1 Kingston Town Stakes. 10 starts for nine top two finishes and a fourth. Strawberry Boy (4th) nearly pinched the race after getting away with a pretty soft first 800m (37.06) and he's a four time winner at 1600m including one at this track. Two starts back he finished a half length behind Winx when conceding her 3.5kg and he gets a nice turnaround in the weights from both Stratum Star (2.5kg) and Disposition (1kg). So too does Lucky Hussler (6th) who probably should have won the race. He ran into more dead ends than Shaggy and Scooby Doo and was clambering over heels all the way down the straight. It's remarkable he was less than two lengths off them at the end considering he went to the line under a stranglehold. He's a proven performer at the mile at the top level having finished a narrow second to Hucklebuck in the G1 Emirates Stakes at Flemington last November. He's been well tried in early markets.
Leebaz (9th) wasn't far away but he's trading on old form. His first ten starts yielded six wins and three seconds but his last 10 starts have produced just one win and two placings all at G2/G3 level. I'm looking elsewhere. Hopfgarten (12th) wasn't as bad as his finishing position might suggest. He was bottled up for most of the straight and he would have finished closer with clear galloping room because he was still closing at the end despite not being ridden out. Best longshot. Bull Point (14th) clearly doesn't have his heart in it at the moment and he might be better off pulling a milk cart.
Looking at the other form lines Noble Protector is coming off a poor run in the G2 Let's Elope Stakes just as Allez Wonder was when she won at $41 in 2009. She was G1 placed in the Autumn behind Amanpour and Catkins in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes and boasts a second to Contributer but I can't entertain her. Ninth Legion was a half length third (below) to subsequent G1 Epsom Handicap quinella Winx and Sons of John two starts back in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes. On that day he beat home Strawberry Boy, Vashka and Messene who have all since run well.
Kenjorwood will have to create a little bit of history to win because every winner in the last 30 years has come of a run in a Black Type race at their last start. On the plus side he has two wins and three placings from six runs at the trip with his only "miss" being a fourth behind The Cleaner two runs back in the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes. Hi World will find this G1 easier than the w-f-a races he has been contesting. He drops to just 54.5kg here and two starts back at 1600m he was a tick over two lengths off Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and prior to that was only a length and a half behind Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Flamingo Star has the Chris Waller polish and looks set to peak here fourth run back. At his last run at the mile he was just shaded by stablemate Strawberry Boy at level weights and meets him 1.5kg better off here. This time last year Akavoroun came of two average runs to finish a one length fourth in this race third-up at $13 and gets in 1kg lighter this year but he hasn't won for 15 months and his last nine starts have yielded just one placing.
* 10 of the last 11 winners paid $9 or less and eight of them returned $6 or less.
Locky's Selections
7. Disposition
4. Strawberry Boy
2. Stratum Star
11. Hi World
4. Strawberry Boy
2. Stratum Star
11. Hi World
Thousand Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Pasadena Girl won a G1 Champagne Stakes over the mile (below) at just her fourth career start. First-up this prep she rattled home from near last to finish a clear second to Stay With Me in the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes which has proved to be a red hot form race. She comfortably beat home Don't Doubt Mamma (4th), Haybah (6th) and Badawiya (7th) who have all since won. Last start in the G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude she was the best closer in a leader dominated race.
Miss Gunpowder won that race (below) after being allowed to cruise through her first 800m in a pedestrian 49.2 so it's no surprise she had a kick and was able to hold off all the challengers. I doubt she'll get an easy lead tomorrow because she'll have to push across from the outside gate and I can't see Badawiya letting her get there too easily and Stay With Me will probably press forward too from her good gate. Still she's won four from five so she's hard to knock.
Payroll was a huge run in the same race (above) after hoop Jim Cassidy circled the field mid-race to sit outside the lead when he realised the leader was trying to stack them up. I thought she would fold faster than Superman on ironing day given the torrid run she had but she had the cheek to keep on kicking all the way down the straight. Jockey Jim Cassidy has won this race three times but not since 1999.
Stay With Me is a daughter of 2006 winner Miss Finland but history says she'll find it hard to emulate her famous dam because only one winner in the last 17 years has finished worse than fourth at their previous run. She was another like Payroll who took off early and endured a wide run with no cover (above) but I liked the way she attacked the line even she was beaten three and a half lengths. With a better run in transit she can figure.
Badawiya is on a six day back-up after an impressive two length victory last Sunday in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes. I don't think that contest had the depth of the other lead-up and the last time she met this lot she finished three and a half lengths astern and meets Pasadena Girl 2.5kg worse off at the weights. That's the only time in six career starts she has missed a top three finish and she has won three of her last four starts.
Jameka has been thereabouts at her two runs this time in around the likes of Pasadena Girl, Stay With Me and Miss Gunpowder. As a 2-y-o she beat the boys in a G2 Sires Produce in the Autumn at the Flemington 1400m so she should eat up the mile. Sagaronne could improve because first-up she never saw clear running room and second-up they were forced to ride her upside down due to the slow speed up front. Last time she got to the mile she was a three quarter length second in the G1 J.J. Atkins behind Press Statement. Super Cash enjoyed the run of the race behind Miss Gunpowder last start and although she worked to the line well there I think she was entitled to do a little more.
Locky's Selections
2. Pasadena Girl
3. Sagaronne
Spring Champion Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Loyal readers who took the tip will be pretty happy with themselves right now because two weeks ago I wrote:
Vanbrugh (Rosehill Race 5 No. 4) looks a stayer in the making and I've already taken $8 for him to claim the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in a fortnight because if he wins tomorrow (and both the bookies and I think he will) I won't get anything near that price.
After steering this colt to victory in that G3 Gloaming Stakes jockey Hugh Bowman stated "he feels like a Victoria Derby horse all over" and that's high praise from a man who has won the race three times in the last five years. If the bookies are to be believed he has a mortgage on this race because at around $1.80 he looks like starting the shortest priced favourite in 20 years. The stats sheet is against him though because no favourite has won this race since Platinum Scissors in 2002 and no odds-on favourite has won since Magic Of Sydney in 1996.
Too Good To Refuse is one of only two other runners under double figure odds. He bolted in on a wet track last start with 59kg in a Doomben 3-y-o open handicap over 1600m and three starts back he was only a length behind Honesta and that filly was very good last weekend in a G1. It's an unorthodox lead-up but he looks above average and he's the only one they've backed to beat the favourite ($5.50 into $4.80). Man Of Choice is the other and he closed well for third behind Press Statement last start and jockey Sam Clipperton said he "relaxed well and once he gets out to 2000m he'll be a very nice horse". Tatoosh finished a length and a half in front of Man of Choice on that occasion despite drawing the outside barrier and being snagged back to last. He made up many lengths in the run to the winning post. He's friendless in early betting getting out to $11 after opening at $8.50.
Locky's Selections
1. Vanbrugh
4. Too Good To Refuse
2. Tatoosh
5. Man Of Choice
4. Too Good To Refuse
2. Tatoosh
5. Man Of Choice
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