G1 Caulfield Cup Day - 17.10.2015

What a fascinating G1 Caulfield Cup. 

Will the silverware be going to Japan for the second year in a row or could it go across the ditch with Murray Baker, Donna Logan and John Sargent flying the flag for NZ? Maybe it will be one of the European invaders or perhaps one of the local trainers - Chris Waller has three runners and Kris Lees has a pair. Let's not forget John O'Shea and the mighty Godolphin operation or the in-form Hayes/Dabernig partnership either. Mouth watering stuff.

The support races also interest me because outside the Cup winner last year six of the other nine victors - Stratum Star (Gothic Stakes), Set Square (Ethereal Stakes), Lucky Hussler (Moonga Stakes), Sweet Idea (Tristarc Stakes), Contributer (David Jones Cup) and Miracles Of Life (Caulfield Sprint D.H.) - have gone on to win G1 races in the last 12 months.

Who's Hot?

The training partnership of David Hayes and Tom Dabernig has had a week to remember.

Last Saturday they bagged a G1 double with Criterion and Stay With Me. Not content with success in the big smoke they headed to Cranbourne on Sunday and picked up another winner followed by two more on Tuesday at Benalla. Then they notched a treble at the Wednesday Caulfield meeting including two Black Type races.

They have a number of runners at Caulfield tomorrow but the bookies think their best hopes are Hell Or Highwater (Race 1 No. 6), Dawn Of Hope (Race 4 No. 10), Sacred Eye (Race 5 No. 13) and Rising Romance (Race 9 No. 14). 

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day.***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Set Square: Only one favourite has won in the last 10 years and nine of the winners returned between $8.50 and $16. Seven of them carried 55kg or less. Five of the last seven winners contested the G1 Turnbull Stakes at their last run. 

Mongolian Khan has rocketed into favouritism after his slashing closing third last weekend behind Criterion in the G1 Caulfield Stkaes. Mummify (2003) is the only winner of this race to have come via that w-f-a contest seven days earlier since 1996 and I just question how good the local form is compared to the international visitors. Still he hasn't put a foot wrong this preparation and is a worthy favourite.

Set Square loomed into calculations for this race after her last start third (below) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes behind Preferment and Royal Descent. Only two mares have won this race in the last 18 years but with just 51kg on her back she can't be dismissed lightly. She has tactical speed so she will probably be in the first half of the field and she's proven at the journey having won last year's G1 VRC Oaks.

Royal Descent meets Set Square 3.5kg worse off here than last start (above) and she just always seems to find a way to get beaten. The extreme outside barrier makes it tough but she did finish an unlucky fifth in this race to Fawkner two years ago when she carried a half kilo more. What worries me is that all her best form in the ensuing 24 months has been from 1600m to 2000m.

Less than three and a half lengths covered the first dozen horses over the line so lets look at those who were close up behind the aforementioned two.

Who Shot Thebarman (8th) just continues to tick along nicely and he is one of many who will relish the mile and a half. His record at 2400m+ reads nine starts for four wins, a second in a G1 Sydney Cup, a third in a G1 Melbourne Cup and a fourth in a G1 BMW. He'll have to be ridden for luck from the wide draw though. Volkstok'n'barrell (9th) had a pretty good run but got swamped late and I do have a query on him at a strong 2400m. He will appreciate some weight relief here with just 53.5kg after competing at w-f-a level. Gust Of Wind (11th) went through the line like a staying type and the last time this mare got to 2400m (fourth-up too) she won the G1 ATC Oaks beating Winx by two and a half lengths. She hasn't seen a lot of clear galloping room at her last two runs either. Rising Romance (12th) didn't get a great run in transit in the race but she should get a better passage here from barrier two. She was a half length second to Admire Rakti in this race last year after disappointing at her previous run and stays at the 53kg. Protectionist (13th) and Magicool (14th) just don't look to be going well enough to figure here.

Now it's time to look at the international brigade.

Snow Sky has drawn favourably and if he wins jockey Damien Oliver will equal the record for most wins in this race (five) currently held by the legendary Scobie Breasley. Fame Game was excellent in his last start second (below) in the G1 Tenno Sho at Kyoto and he is also drawn to get a dream run from barrier one. The other Japanese raider Hokko Brave didn't fare as well in the barrier draw but he's in good hands because his jockey Craig Williams has won this race twice in the last four years. He finished behind Fame Game that day but is considered the better 2400m horse of the two whereas his compatriot is more of a two miler. Our Ivanhowe has also drawn wide but given he'll get back that's not so bad. He won't want a really firm track but he drops to 56kg here after a brave effort last start with 60kg. He's in a good stable with his trainer Lee Freedman having won this race four times previously. Trip To Paris has won twice at 2400m but his last five runs have been at 3200m to 4000m so I think the G1 Melbourne Cup will suit him better. He might just be a bit too dour for this but watch for him and his stablemate Red Cadeaux at Flemington in a couple of weeks.

Lucia Valentina was third in the race last year at the same stage of her prep and with the same weight but she had won two of her three lead-up runs and this year she doesn't appear to be going as well. She is trying to emulate 1997 winner Might And Power by claiming this race straight after a failure in the G1 Epsom Handicap. I don't think this mare is as good as that bloke. Just quietly. Barrier 20 doesn't help either.

Magnapal automatically qualified for this race with victory in the G3 Naturalism Stakes and he's earned a crack because he's in super form this prep winning his first three starts before a narrow defeat last time out in the G3 JRA Cup. He drops seven kilos from that run and although drawn wide he should manage to get across handy. He's never won beyond 2000m but he does have five top two finishes from eight starts at Caulfield.

Lastly we have a quartet of runners coming via the Sydney staying races and I'll start with the Godolphin trio.

Magic Hurricane (4E) will need four scratchings to get a start but if he does scrape into the field he has no weight and a good draw and his last start win in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap was dominant. The drawback is that was a much weaker field and only two winners of that race have completed the double in the last 30 years - Railings (2005) and Tawqeet (2006). 

His stablemates Complacent (2E) and Hauraki fought out a thrilling finish (below) in the the G3 Craven Plate. The former conceded the latter a kilo and fought back to win after being headed in the straight but like Magic Hurricane he needs a few to come out just to get a start. Hauraki on the other hand is safely in the field and the last time he got out to 2400m he was a close second to Mongolian Khan in the G1 Australian Derby. They met at level weights on that occasion whereas here he will get a 2kg advantage and is double the price. His only two runs the Melbourne way have been dismal though.

Complacent (inside) fights back to outlast his stablemate Hauraki (outside) in the G3 Craven Plate

Grand Marshal finished midfield in the aforementioned G3 Craven Plate and just like his two previous runs it showed he is progressing nicely towards his major Spring goal in the G1 Melbourne Cup. He won the G1 Sydney Cup in the Autumn so he probably won't even start to get warm here until it's all over and he does tend to race best with the sting out of the ground. Five starts at 2400m or beyond for two wins, a second, a third and a fourth.

Locky's Selections

2. Snow Sky

4. Our Ivanhowe
6. Mongolian Khan
16. Gust Of Wind

OTHER BETS

Honesta (Caulfield Race 4 No. 3) was unlucky not to claim the G1 Flight Stakes last start when she just missed Speak Fondly. That filly has form around Exosphere and Press Statement which is looking pretty hot right about now. All these fillies are stepping up to 2000m for the first time but this girl's sire Monaco Consul won a G1 VRC Derby and ran third in the G1 Caulfield Cup of 2010 so she has the pedigree to say she will see out the trip.

Sadler's Lake (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6) didn't see a lot of clear galloping room in the home straight last start (below) in the G1 Epsom Handicap so his four length ninth was better than the form guide would suggest. He drops a kilo in weight from that run too despite the fact he is dropping back to a G2 from a G1. He won the G3 Rough Habit Plate by almost two lengths over this trip during the Brisbane Winter Carnival.

Teronado (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) was another who caught the eye (above) in the G1 Epsom Handicap when he flashed home from last on the turn to finish sixth and ran past some big names in the process. His last 400m was the second fastest of the race and was only 0.06 seconds slower than that recorded by Winx. He needs a dry track and although his mile record reads badly his "failures" include a fifth in a G1 Australian Guineas and a fourth in a G1 Randwick Guineas.

Fell Swoop (Randwick Race 7 No. 5) is my pin-up boy and I'm glad to see him back because I just love this bloke. I like the fact that he's had a four week freshen up here because he played up a bit prior to his last start which was uncharacteristic and looked to me like a horse who was showing the signs of a long prep. He's won his last four and probably should have won his last nine in a row because he was desperately unlucky the day he was defeated. I've stayed solid all along and I'm not dropping off now.