I managed to find the trifecta ($157.50) in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and my Chris Waller runners in Press Statement and Vanbrugh both stamped themselves as horses to follow while stablemate Ballet Suite (5th) continues to tick along nicely. Kuro (3rd) had the race shot to bits according to jockey James McDonald but switched off when he got to the front and was bloused on the line.
It's an even bigger weekend of this racing this time around with five G1's across two states over three days.
Tonight at Moonee Valley we see talented 3-y-o's Petits Filous and Fontition taking on seasoned campaigners like G1 winners Buffering and Flamberge in the G1 Moir Stakes. Then on Sunday we have quite a few Cup hopefuls locking horns in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. My main focus however will be on the big meeting at Randwick tomorrow with nine races, all at Stakes level with six being Group races including three G1's.
It's an even bigger weekend of this racing this time around with five G1's across two states over three days.
Tonight at Moonee Valley we see talented 3-y-o's Petits Filous and Fontition taking on seasoned campaigners like G1 winners Buffering and Flamberge in the G1 Moir Stakes. Then on Sunday we have quite a few Cup hopefuls locking horns in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. My main focus however will be on the big meeting at Randwick tomorrow with nine races, all at Stakes level with six being Group races including three G1's.
Who's Hot?
Craig Williams had a Black Type double at Caulfield last weekend winning the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude. He travelled to Geelong the following day for three wins from three rides before bagging another treble at Ballarat on Wednesday. He usually strikes form at this time of year and when he does it pays to follow him.
He has engagements at Moonee Valley tonight, Randwick tomorrow and Flemington on Sunday so I won't list all of his rides but his best chances in the major races appear to be Fontiton (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 12), Chance To Dance (Randwick Race 9 No. 9) and Foundry (Flemington Race 6 No. 5).
RANDWICK
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a sunny day.***
Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Sadler's Lake: Every single one of the last 12 winners returned $15 or less and nine of them were 4-y-o's. Only two favourites have won in that period. Wide barriers haven't been much of a concern and weight is largely irrelevant this year given 2kg covers the field. Secret Admirer (2007) is the only mare to win in the last 30 years.
Winx produced an unbelievable final burst (below) three weeks ago to claim the G2 Theo Marks Stakes. She'll need luck from the wide draw but given she's going to drift back anyway that may be a plus because at least she won't be buried away on the fence. She should get a good tempo in front too with Hooked, Entirely Platinum and Ecuador engaged so look for her swooping late. The last horse to complete the Theo Marks-Epsom double was Ricochet in 1970 and not many horses win this race second-up.
Lucia Valentina is the horse best suited by the compressed weights because she is 1.5kg over the minimum after chasing home Kermadec, Royal Descent and Pornichet two weeks ago at w-f-a (below) in the G1 George Main Stakes. That was her second run this campaign and she's never placed second-up in five attempts. However, at her last three appearances third-up she has won a G1 Turnbull Stakes and a G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and placed third in a G1 Ranvet Stakes behind Contributer and Tosen Stardom.
Sadler's Lake is an improving 4-y-o on the way up which has been a good blueprint for this race in recent years. Given his low handicap rating he's poorly placed here at the weight scale (he should be getting 8kg from Hooked) but on the plus side he should get the gun run from barrier three. He comes off wins in a Benchmark race and the G3 Bill Ritchie Handicap just like his stablemate Boban when he won this race two years ago.
Entirely Platinum comes via the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) where he was less than half a length from Fawkner and prior to that he split Boban and Stratum Star in the G1 Memsie Stakes. That form reads very strong now but he'll have to defy history because the last horse to win this race off a prior run in Melbourne was Golden Sword in 1993. Barrier 14 makes it an even more difficult assignment. Best backed in early markets.
Silverball comes off an almost identical path to his stablemate He's Your Man when he captured this race last year. He took a while to get there last start but it was a pretty soft win in the end and at his previous start he just missed Magic Hurricane who has since run well and will start favourite in today's G1 Metropolitan Handicap. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but if the tempo is hot then he will be the one who is strong at the finish.
Silverball comes off an almost identical path to his stablemate He's Your Man when he captured this race last year. He took a while to get there last start but it was a pretty soft win in the end and at his previous start he just missed Magic Hurricane who has since run well and will start favourite in today's G1 Metropolitan Handicap. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but if the tempo is hot then he will be the one who is strong at the finish.
You'll get some juicy odds if you like anything outside the top three and there are a few who could step-up here and run into the placings without shocking. Sweynesse will find this much easier than his last assignment in the G1 George Main Stakes but the barrier draw did him no favours. Rudy meets Sadler's Lake 4kg better off than their last encounter but would have loved some rain. He could still flash home though if they run along. So could the other Queenslander Teronado on a firm track. Hooked ran an enormous race (below) in this race last year to fight back for third after sitting wide without cover. He's drawn to get a good run here and he can improve sharply back on a dry surface but I'm worried he may get into a speed duel up front.
Kirramosa was on the heels of Lucia Valentina last start in that hot G1 George Main Stakes and meets her 1.5kg better off here so I can't work out why she is twice the price of the other mare. She is improving with every run but I think her main mission is the G1 Caulfield Cup. Messene was a close-up third with a big weight last weekend in the G2 Shannon Stakes and recent winners Fat Al (2012) and Secret Admirer (2011) followed a similar route. Ecuador was sixth in this race two years ago (below) less than a length behind Boban. He's a two-time winner third-up and trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times.
Locky's SelectionsKirramosa was on the heels of Lucia Valentina last start in that hot G1 George Main Stakes and meets her 1.5kg better off here so I can't work out why she is twice the price of the other mare. She is improving with every run but I think her main mission is the G1 Caulfield Cup. Messene was a close-up third with a big weight last weekend in the G2 Shannon Stakes and recent winners Fat Al (2012) and Secret Admirer (2011) followed a similar route. Ecuador was sixth in this race two years ago (below) less than a length behind Boban. He's a two-time winner third-up and trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times.
11. Sadler's Lake
7. Silverball
4. Winx
9. Kirramosa
The Metropolitan (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)
4. Winx
9. Kirramosa
The Metropolitan (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)
*** Hawkspur is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Bonfire: Seven of the last eight favourites were beaten and five of the winners paid $10 or more. Six of the last seven winners were unplaced at their previous run. Gai Waterhouse has won this race eight times including five of the last 10.
Beaten Up hasn't won since his G1 Doomben Cup victory in May 2013 but he did spend 16 months on the sidelines with a tendon injury. In his nine starts since his enforced lay-off he has only gotten out beyond 2000m once and that resulted in a third to Hartnell last March (below) in the G1 BMW. He wasn't far behind Preferment and Magic Hurricane last start and he's drawn to get a lovely trail here.
Chance To Dance was only two lengths off the winner in the G2 Hill Stakes on a soft track and he's only missed a place three times in his career. Those runs were all on affected ground but he's never missed a place in eight dry track appearances so go instead off his previous win at Moonee Valley. He's had four starts in Europe at 2400m for a win, two seconds and a fourth (on a wet surface) carrying between 58.5kg and 63.5kg and finds himself here with just 55.5kg.
Junoob has been crunched in early betting ($15 into $10). He really caught the eye two runs back when he rattled home for fifth in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes. According to Josh Parr he didn't handle the track last start so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an improvement of many lengths here on a Good 4. His last run over this trip (below) was a seventh in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup when he was less than two and a half lengths behind Admire Rakti.
Everything else is going to be about $10 or longer but this is a race that has had it's share of upsets so we can't dismiss them. Beyond Thankful has won four of his last five and although they were in weaker grade he is in-form and rock hard fit and comes from a G1 winning stable. Tricky gate but Hugh Bowman and a lack of speed should see him overcome that. Maurus looks a promising stayer in the making and he wasn't far off Silverball last start and that horse is well in commission in the G1 Epsom Handicap. Orbec is a big brute of a horse and he's needed each of his three runs this campaign and he looks ready to peak here. Kapour* should get an easier run than he did when a brave fifth last start and the stable has been in good form lately with Bon Aurum and Petits Filous. Third-up at 2400m last prep he won the Listed Winter Cup at Rosehill over this distance. Bonfire ran second in that race and he was solid first-up at 2000m and jumps straight to 2400m but he has done that before and been effective. If anyone can make that work it's trainer Gai Waterhouse. He'll be up on the pace making his own luck and he has won at 2400m.
* Kapour will most likely run in Melbourne on Sunday
Locky's Selections* Kapour will most likely run in Melbourne on Sunday
4. Beyond Thankful
9. Chance To Dance
7. Almoonqith
9. Chance To Dance
7. Almoonqith
2. Junoob
I want a winner and I Want It Now! Well Cheer Up Charlie - The Candyman has found some sweet tips using nothing but Pure Imagination.
Brisbane Winter Form
Counterattack (Randwick Race 4 No. 7) is taking on the highly touted Exosphere but if he can be beaten I think this bloke might be the one to do it. First-up he came from the tail of the field and rounded them up with ease to win the Listed Heritage Stakes going away. I can see him taking improvement from that run because it was his first run in 15 weeks. The favourite is dropping from 1400m back to 1200m and could be vulnerable.
Moriarty (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) should be ready to peak now after three runs back and out to 2000m for the first time this preparation. He won this race fourth-up last year coming off a sixth of six at his previous run. Last campaign at his fourth run he beat all bar Werther in the G2 Eagle Farm Cup. Dropping back to 1500m from 1600m last start wasn't ideal but it seemed to switch him on. If he dashes like that tomorrow he might be too quick for some of these grinders.
THE OTHER MAJOR RACES
The Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This looks an intriguing race with the old bulls bashing heads with some talented up-and-comers. I'm gambling that Fontiton has returned in top order. She has just 51kg and on debut she won a 1000m race here at MV by six lengths. In fact she's won both her starts at the distance and both were fresh. Her only defeat was when she was found to be suffering from heat stress after finishing fifth in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. As of this morning trainer Robert Smerdon has eight wins and two placings from his last 15 starters.
It was hard to go past the favourite here in Petits Filous. She also gets a 7.5kg swing from most of her rivals here at the w-f-a conditions, she'll jump on or near the speed and make them run her down. The form around her (Miss Gunpowder, Take Pride) is stacking up too. The 1000m fresh might be a bit zippy for old Buffering now that he is an 8-y-o. I'm not writing him off though because he has contested this race first-up the last three years for two wins and a second but they were all run at 1200m. He hasn't been seriously competitive fresh over 1000m since his two length third to Black Caviar and Hay List in the G1 Lightning Stakes more than three and a half years ago.
Ball Of Muscle is fit and hard and has never missed a top three finish in 15 starts. He has four starts at 1000m for two wins, a second and a third. It took the talented Rebel Dane a day and a half to get past him last start in a thrilling finish. Flamberge has to be in with some hope on his last start second behind Chautauqua when first-up but he was disappointing second-up in the Autumn after doing the same thing. Granted he was dropping back from 1100m to 1000m there whereas he stays at the same trip here. Angelic Light not the worst.
Locky's Selections
12. Fontiton
13. Petits Filous
1. Buffering
6. Ball Of Muscle
13. Petits Filous
1. Buffering
6. Ball Of Muscle
The Flight Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Speak Fondly is the popular pick and it's no real surpise given her three runs this time in work have produced two wins and a second to Exosphere (below) when she took on the boys in the G1 Golden Rose. The dominant win of Press Statement last weekend just makes it look even better now. I'm leaving her out though because I'm not a fan of backing short priced favourites who have already played their "Grand Final".
The stablemate Sempre Libera looks like the mile will suit on her last start effort in the G2 Tea Rose Stakes but the best two runs in that race (below) were Pearls and Honesta. Granted they were suited by the fact that they charged through the first 800m but they were strong at the end and that's what I'm looking for here. Honesta has a great record at 1600m (3:2-1-0) whereas only one other filly has even started at the trip and that is $301 chance Lauren's Magic who finished third last start in a $22K maiden at Wyong. Kimberley Star was sound in the same race behind the aforementioned pair and trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times. She has been up a long time though. Perignon pulled up distressed after her last run and jockey Hugh Bowman suggested she may be better on a dry track. If there is a blowout it could be the Kiwi filly Sofia Rosa.
Locky's Selections
4. Honesta
3. Perignon
Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This race has been kind to the bookies in recent years with just one favourite saluting the judge since 2005 and some big results like Happy Trails ($26), Zipping ($17), Efficient ($26) and Devil Moon ($13).
I'm looking for something that can sit in the first half dozen here because although there are some go forward horses I don't think any of them will be out to set any land speed records. So we could see another farcical, w-f-a, tactical sit-and-sprint affair. I've ended up with Royal Descent. Chris Waller may have finally found the perfect race for her to finally breakthrough and score her first major since the G1 ATC Oaks in April 2013. She won't know herself with just 53.5kg and she is primed for this whereas many of her rivals have other targets in mind. She has drawn wide but so have a couple of the few others who are likely to go forward so I'm hoping she can get a cart across.
Volkstok'n'barrell looks like he'll get the run of the race and his last two efforts were better than they look in the form guide because two starts back (below) he got pole-axed and last start was a sprint home where the order didn't change much between the 1000m and the winning post. Amralah won in dynamic fashion last start in Adelaide albeit beating a much weaker field than this but I like they way he put himself into the race which I feel will be crucial here. Team Williams has won three of the last six renewals of this feature. Rising Romance my next best but she has to overcome the outside draw. She was probably unlucky not to beat Fawkner second-up (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva and she always seems to produce her best at her third third or fourth run into a campaign. Plenty of other hopes too including Happy Trails, Protectionist, Preferment, Dandino, Who Shot Thebarman, Alpine Eagle and Gust Of Wind but they'll be spotting them a headstart. I would have had Hartnell in my top four but for the fact that the stable has announced he will be ridden back in an effort to get him to settle. I would have thought from that gate with no real speed here he'd be going forward but John O'Shea has trained more winners than I have.
Locky's Selections
16. Royal Descent
5. Volkstok'n'barrell
11. Amralah
5. Volkstok'n'barrell
11. Amralah
9. Rising Romance
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