A mixed bag last Saturday. I had Fell Swoop ($2.70) and Kermadec ($2.35) on top last week plus the G1 George Main Stakes quinella ($3.80). I doubt however that they will award me the Victoria Cross for those acts of bravery.
Lastly my "Who's hot?" segment featured Chris Waller and what can you say? He's going so well I have decided to dedicate a segment to him today.
Of my other selections Rudy (2nd) ran the up-and-coming Sadler's Lake to half a length after giving him a head start and 4kg. Shiraz (3rd) wasn't far away and may have been in the worst section of the track but Teronado was absolutely diabolical.
Lastly my "Who's hot?" segment featured Chris Waller and what can you say? He's going so well I have decided to dedicate a segment to him today.
Who's hot?
Robert Hickmott has had just 22 runners since the new season began on August 1 but his strike-rate is awesome (Win 31.8% / Place 59.1%) with seven winners and six placegetters. He took four horses to Adelaide last weekend for three winners and a second including a quinella. In previous Saturday metro meetings he has also produced the winners The United States, Chance To Dance and Fawkner.
He had three horses nominated for tomorrow but only accepted with two and then he scratched Foundry so he is left with just the one starter - Fawkner (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1).
CAULFIELD
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day.***
Underwood Stakes (Group 1, 1800m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Fawkner: Since the win of Sharscay at $13 in 1995 only two horses in the last 20 years have returned more than $8. No mare has won this race since Tristarc in 1985. Fifteen of the last 16 winners finished top four at their previous start. Only three favourites have been successful in the last 12 years.
Contributer will have to improve off his return run because he was well beaten (below) in the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes. Maybe he resented getting into a bumping duel with Dibayani on the turn and he had his head on one side coming down the straight so perhaps he just didn't handle the tight Moonee Valley track. He has won at Caulfield though but given Bagman came from behind him and gave him windburn on that form line I can't possibly step into 7/2 in the old language.
The Cleaner led unchallenged in that race (above) and while I don't think he'll be taken on here I don't think he will get as soft a run as he did at Moonee Valley three weeks ago. His Caulfield record was pretty ordinary before his narrow second two starts ago in the G2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes. He's a cult horse and sure to have his admirers and as usual they're going to get a pretty good price but I just happen to think the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes form is stronger.
Former Hong Kong galloper Dibayani comes via the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes too and he was solid if not spectacular capturing his second G2 placing in as many starts in this country. So too does Mourinho who finished alongside Contributer in that race and while it was a below par effort he did win fresh in the Autumn, miss second up and then win the G2 Peter Young Stakes third-up.
In fact there were either quite a few good runs in that race (above) or they are just a pretty even lot. Volkstok'n'barrell (last) and Dandino (11th) didn't see a lot of galloping room so their margins are forgivable. Both seemed to be full of running but just had nowhere to go like many others in that race. Weary (9th) bombed the start (again) but made up late ground to be on the heels of the placegetters. The problem is you just can't keep making mistakes like that in big races. He finished second behind Pornichet in the G1 Doomben Cup over 2000m in April so the trip is no concern and he does have the residual fitness. Mongolian Khan (7th) ran like you would expect a stayer to run when resuming at 1600m after a five month break so his effort to be beaten a length and a half was respectable. The step up to 1800m is a big plus for him too and his trainer Murray Baker has won two of the last four renewals of this race. Hi World has found the step-up to G1 level a bit too much at his too starts this campaign and Magicool I suspect will need the run as he in on a Cups path but he has improved each start this prep and is going OK.
In fact you could pretty much make a case for all of them to be in your first four because Sertorious isn't hopeless either. But I can only have four so here it goes.
1. Fawkner
7. Weary
10. Volkstok'n'barrell
9. Mongolian Khan
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)
10. Volkstok'n'barrell
9. Mongolian Khan
Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)
*** Ninth Legion is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Disposition: In the last 13 runnings of this race no winner has returned more than $12 and only three have paid more than $9. Only three winners in that period carried more than 54.5kg and only three were female. Eight were 4-y-o's including seven of the last nine and the last five in a row. Damien Oliver has ridden six winners of this race and Lee Freedman has trained the winner four times. The last three winners started favourite.
Disposition started his career in WA and is building an imposing record with nine starts for five wins and three seconds. He split Wandjina and Stratum Star in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes in the Autumn and was also a narrow second to Moriarty in the G1 Kingston Town Classic in Perth last December as a 3-y-o. He won impressively first-up, has proven himself competitive at the top level, is lightly weighted, drawn well and will sit handy to the speed.
Stratum Star comes off a third (below) in that very strong G1 Memsie Stakes. He chased home Boban and Entirely Platinum who have both since run well in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and he beat home seven other horses who will contest tomorrow's other G1. That was four weeks ago so he's been kept fresh for this and third-up last prep he was a half length third in the G1 Australian Guineas. Jockey Craig Williams has to overcome a horrible barrier draw but he has ridden four of the last nine winners of this race and three of the last six winners drew 14 or wider.
Under The Louvre was unlucky last time out in the G2 Bobbie Lewis Stakes and he's going to need luck again tomorrow because in all likelihood he will jump from barrier five. For a horse who likes to get back and run on that could present problems because he's going to need to either thread a passage through the ruck or circle the field. I tipped him last start and he was desperately unlucky but this is going to be tough having to concede weight and a start to some talented types. In the mix though.
Everything else is going to be about $12+. Cosmic Endeavour hasn't been placed in two runs at Caulfield but does have three wins and a second from five starts at 1400m. Only three mares have won this race in the last 20 years and none of them carried more than 53.5kg. Charmed Harmony has won his last four and is a seven time winner at 1400m including his last two starts at this track. He's an on pace runner with a good barrier and a light weight so he will give his backers a great sight. Rich Enuff has drawn the car park and Damien Oliver has given up the ride to James McDonald so I don't know how much we read into that. He doesn't seem the same horse as he was last Spring and maybe hasn't handled the step up to open company. Good on his day though. Strawberry Boy has been scratched from Sydney to run here and the real big tick for him is the name "C.Waller" next to him in the form guide. He's a three time winner second-up and he did win two Black Type races during the Winter Carnival but both were at 1600m. Petrology comes via the G1 Memsie Stakes at w-f-a and he won't know himself with just the 52kg. He could lob into the first four at huge odds. Don't be surprised if the Queenslander Hopfgarten runs a tidy race first-up. A good race chock full of talent with quite a few genuine chances.
12. Disposition
11. Stratum Star
8. Under The Louvre
11. Stratum Star
8. Under The Louvre
10. Charmed Harmony
This bloke seems to have a Golden Ticket to big race winners at the moment - so let's take a look at some of his better chances of getting us the chocolates tomorrow.
Hard Luck Story
Press Statement (Rosehill Race 2 No. 1) was tipped in this blog last start as loyal readers will know and he didn't have a lot of luck (below) in the G1 Golden Rose. Third-up in his only other prep he won the G1 J.J. Atkins at the mile at Doomben on Stradbroke Day. He's going to be a very short price but I'm not dropping off because of one unlucky run. Maybe make him an anchor leg in some multis.
On The Up
* Given the name of this segment perhaps the "omen" tip is No. 11 Gobstopper *
Form Line
I'm Imposing (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5) comes of a nice fresh effort (below) in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes when he charged to the line late. The trifecta in the G1 George Main Stakes last weekend came via that race as did five of the first seven over the line in the G2 Hill Stakes on the same day. Second-up last campaign he ran well in a G2 Hollindale Stakes following a similar fresh effort.Brisbane Winter Form
Ballet Suite (Rosehill Race 8 No. 4) chased home stablemate Sadler's Lake last time out and he has since gone on to claim last Saturday's G3 Bill Ritchie Stakes and looks a good horse in the making. She has two second-up appearances for a win and a second and spent the Winter Carnival in Queensland. Numerous horses who did that (Counterattack, Sadler's Lake, Ball Of Muscle, Honesta, Pornichet, Bassett, Charlie Boy and Politeness) performed very well last weekend.
OTHER BETS
Sagaronne (Caulfield Race 5 No. 3) was a complete forgive run at Moonee Valley last time out because she saw more backsides than a Customs officer. The outside barrier actually appeals to me because she is going to go back anyway and at least she won't get buried away like last time.The step up to 1400m appeals and second-up last campaign she charged home from near last to claim the Listed The Phoenix. She wasn't far off Press Statement (below) in the G1 J.J. Atkins at Doomben in June.
Forgive
Kuro (Caulfield Race 3 No. 2) is second-up and at his second run in the Autumn he beat all bar Sweet Idea in the G1 Galaxy. Two starts back he was only half a length behind Ball Of Muscle in the G2 QTC Cup and that horse was just pipped last week by Rebel Dane in the G2 The Shorts at Randwick. He looks the obvious danger to his former stablemate Craftiness and he ran into a lot of trouble in the straight last start so the four length margin is deceiving. This is easier.
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