G1 George Main Stakes Day - 19.09.2015

A breathtaking last-to-first win by Winx was certainly the highlight last Saturday but there were plenty of worthy support acts with emerging three-year-olds Exosphere, Petits Filous and Kinglike announcing their arrivals plus the "Queen of the Turf" Catkins claiming her sixteenth career victory.  

I wish I'd followed my own tips last weekend because gun Brisbane apprentice James Orman bagged a treble (the very three I named), top selections Fawkner ($5.40) and Silverball ($1.95) both saluted and each-way tip Under the Louvre (2nd $3.00) just missed in a thrilling finish.

Music Magnate (3rd $1.60 place) sweated up pre-race so I'm not writing him off just yet and Press Statement (5th) isn't to blame for where he finished. Good thing Tye Angland is a jockey and not a motorcyclist because if he rode a bike the way he rode this colt he'd be pulled over and asked to blow into a bag. Platinum Rocker (8th) was disappointing.

The highlight this weekend is the G1 George Main Stakes and I'm working on the assumption we'll have a wet track in Sydney.

Who's hot?

Special mention to James McDonald for his four winners last weekend but Chris Waller has to go in and not just because he trained five winners across two states. He has dominated this day in the last three years wining the feature race twice and claiming six wins overall.

His record in big mile races in Sydney is phenomenal. He has also trained the winner of the last three G1 Doncaster Miles, the last two G1 Epsom Handicaps and the winners of four of the last five G1 Chipping Norton Stakes.

It's hard to keep up good stats with so many horses and yet roughly one in every five he takes to the track wins and almost one in every two places. He trained a Black Type treble at Newcastle today including the feature race the G3 Newcastle Cup.

He has horses running everywhere tomorrow but his two most fancied runners are Sadler's Lake (Randwick Race 2 No. 6) and Kermadec (Randwick Race 6 No. 5).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of showers in the morning.***

George Main Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Kermadec: 12 of the last 13 winners of this race returned $9 or less and only three returned more than $6. Six started favourite including four of the last five. Eight had finished top two at their previous start. Chris Waller has won this race twice in the last three years. Only one mare (More Joyous in 2010) has been successful since Ma Chuiquita in 1986.

Kermadec will start favourite here and deservedly so. His last two starts at the Randwick 1600m have resulted in a win in the G1 Doncaster Mile and a second (below) in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes last start. It was a gutsy effort considering he was deep without cover for most of the race. Those were his only two starts on affected ground so the rain is no concern. Third-up first prep he won the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on VRC Derby Day and third-up last prep he should have won the G1 Australian Guineas

Royal Descent was third (above) a length and a half astern of Kermadec and I think that G2 Chelmsford Stakes form line is strong. Like her stablemate she enjoys the Randwick mile and wet tracks. She's never missed a place in seven attempts at this track and distance and has two wins and seven placings from 11 runs in the wet. She rarely wins but she's a must for exotics. Second in this race the last two years running.

Pornichet wasn't as impressive as Kermadec and Royal Descent in the same race but he was wide most of the way and he may have been a victim of "second-up syndrome" after his tough run first-up. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he bounced back because Gai Waterhouse does make a habit of winning these big Randwick miles. She has won  this race four times, the G1 Chipping Norton six times and the G1 Doncaster Mile and G1 Epsom Handicap seven times apiece.

Hooked led all the way (below) to claim the G2 Tramway Stakes first-up a fortnight ago but the the track was clearly leader biased that day. He has just two other wins in his last 24 appearances stretching back to April 2013. Granted they were a G3 Cameron Handicap and a G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day but he does tend to space his victories. Sincero (2011) is the only horse to complete the Tramway-George Main double since Shaftesbury Avenue (1990) and only one winner of this race in the last 15 years paid $10+.

Lucia Valentina flashed home (above)  behind Hooked in the G2 Tramway Stakes on a day when horses weren't making ground and she'll relish the wet conditions because her dry track form reads poorly (11:1-0-2) but she's two from two on heavy and has two wins and three placings from seven starts on slow tracks. Sixth in this race last year on a Good 3.

Everything else is going to be about $15+ but Kirramosa did close well for fifth (above) in the G2 Tramway Stakes against the bias. She's probably still looking for further but I expect she will be running on strongly at the end. The stablemates Sweynesse and Hauraki were pretty plain in the same race but an improved showing second-up wouldn't be an absolute shock. Especially from the former who was prominent throughout (above) in the G2 Tramway Stakes and only knocked-up late. Protectionist wasn't as bad last start as his 13th of 14 looks on paper. He found the line and stretched out like a stayer and although 1600m is well short of his best he does like a rain affected track. Moriarty had a vet inspection this afternoon for localised swelling that had developed in his neck and he's still in the field so obviously he got the thumbs up. Apparently it hasn't affected his trackwork or appetite but I'll be leaving him alone.

Locky's Selections

5. Kermadec

8. Royal Descent
9. Lucia Valentina
10. Kirramosa

OTHER BETS

Mudlark

Rudy (Randwick Race 2 No. 3) is an absolute swimmer and he came from a mile back last start in the G2 Tramway Stakes to finish third behind Hooked. That gelding is going around in the G1 today. It was not a day to be coming from back in the field either. Winners Farolitos, Metallic Crown, Complacent and the aforementioned Hooked led all the way and Speak Fondly, Shiraz and Sadler's Lake stalked the leaders. His only two other starts here at headquarters have returned a win in the G2 Villiers Stakes and a fourth (below) to Kermadec in the G1 Doncaster Mile.

Picket Fence

Shiraz (Randwick Race 4 No. 7) has strung together four straight wins this campaign with the last two being at stakes level. Last start he accounted for the talented stablemates Craftiness and Ball Of Muscle in the G3 Concorde Stakes and prior to that he relegated subsequent winner Le Bonsir to third in the G3 Aurie's Star. They've raised the bar again tomorrow but given the rain they've had in Sydney this week and the fact that he has won four from four on wet tracks I can't see why he can't keep the winning streak going.

Form Line

Perignon (Randwick Race 5 No. 6) has had two starts on soft tracks for two seconds. They were at her last two starts respectively and on both occasions she chased home Speak Fondly who ran a cracking second against the boys last weekend in the G1 Golden Rose. In my never humble opinion I think she is crying out for 1400m just watching her racing pattern. She's drawn to get a bit of cover and if Hughie can weave a bit of that Bowman magic I'm sure she'll be in the firing line when the whips are cracking.

One To Follow

Teronado (Doomben Race 4 No. 1) flashed home last start at Doomben and stepping up to the mile looks ideal for him at this stage of his preparation. He's been nominated for both the G1 Epsom Handicap and the G1 Caulfield Cup so if they think he can be competitive in those races he'd want to be taking care of this lot. All his wet track misses have been in unsuitable races but he has won on a Slow 6 and was a one and a half length third (below) to Criterion on a Slow 7 in the G1 Rosehill Guineas.

Pin-Up Boy

Fell Swoop (Caulfield Race 6 No. 5) is my horse of the moment. Regular readers will know I just love this bloke. He's won seven from nine and proved his adaptability when he easily accounted for his rivals last time out at his first start the Melbourne way of going. That was his first attempt at Stakes level and this Listed race tomorrow doesn't look much harder. He does get a nice pull in the weights from his older, more seasoned, "higher rated" rivals. I can't see any reason to drop off him now. Drawn to get a lovely run.