Some good results last weekend with The Cleaner ($5.50) and Fell Swoop ($2.45) both selected on top and saluting plus The United States (2nd $2.20 place) who would have won too if he hadn't been hanging like a loose tooth. The only other two selected on top were Royal Descent (3rd $1.70 place) and the eye-catching Teronado (3rd $3.00 place).
It's a good time to be finding some form too because from here on in the fields are only going to get stronger the deeper we progress into the Spring Carnival.
It's a good time to be finding some form too because from here on in the fields are only going to get stronger the deeper we progress into the Spring Carnival.
Who's hot?
Promising apprentice James Orman has ridden a winning double at the last three Brisbane Saturday meetings and all up has piloted 11 winners to victory in the last three weeks. He's clearly dedicated because in the last 10 days he's ridden at Mackay, Doomben, Yeppoon, Beaudesert, the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich.
He has a full book at Doomben tomorrow but his best chances on paper appear to be Lock's Legend (Race 2 No. 1) and Sarisara (Race 6 No. 4) although there has also been a big push for Blue Desert Moon (Race 8 No. 7).
ROSEHILL
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a sunny day.***
Golden Rose (Group 1, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** Gold Symphony is an early scratching ***
Exosphere has had five starts for three wins on wet tracks and two unplaced runs on dry tracks so there is some suggestion he may simply be better on affected ground. Having said that his most recent outing (below) in the G2 Run To The Rose was outstanding. They went through the first 600m in 36.19 then sprinted home the final 600m in 34.43 so his effort to round them up from last and win going away can't be ignored. This is his first go beyond 1200m but the way he ran through the line suggests it will be no problem.
Press Statement finished second (above) in the same race and he is one you know will handle the 1400m having won a G1 J.J. Atkins (below) over 1600m during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. The horse that chased him home that day Sagaronne ran well without luck at Moonee Valley last weekend. The horse he beat prior to that was Shards and he won his next two so the form around this bloke is stacking up. Jockey Tye Angland had a winning double last weekend (his first Saturday metro winners since August 15) and trainer Chris Waller does win the odd G1 race every now and then.
Speak Fondly has been well supported in early betting on the back of two impressive wins this prep. This race was first run in 1978 (in its previous incarnation as the G2 Peter Pan Stakes) and remarkably it is a Sydney feature that Gai Waterhouse has never won. Since it became known by its current name in 2003 only one filly has won and that was Forensics when it was held in the Autumn due to the equine influenza outbreak. She's racing well but I just feel she's coming out of weaker quality races. A win wouldn't shock me though because she has clearly been the best backed runner ($5.50 into $3.20) in early betting.
If you like anything else you're going to get $12+. Of the rest Shards was only a half length behind Press Statement over this distance three starts back at level weights and he proceeded to win his next two starts. He hasn't missed a top two finish in three starts at 1300m and beyond and "The Magic Man" Joao Moreira takes the ride. Holler meets Exosphere 3kg worse off and Press Statement 4kg worse off for his last start defeat and he is yet to win beyond 1100m. He's also never been tried beyond 1200m. Sebring Sun ran on well from a long way back when third last time out behind Shards in the G3 Up & Coming Stakes. Rageese ran second (below) to Pride Of Dubai in the G1 Sires Produce over this trip back in April after heading him halfway down the straight. His only other go at the journey he comfortably broke his maiden at Wyong last start as an odds-on favourite. Let's Make It Rain I won't go into too much detail about because as a child I was taught if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all.
Locky's Selections
1. Press Statement
2. Exosphere
5. Shards
4. Rageese
4. Rageese
FLEMINGTON
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Makybe Diva Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)
*** Our Ivanhowe is an scratching ***
Weary ran just as well as his stablemate (above) in the G1 Memsie Stakes after being slowly away and racing wide without cover from the 600m. He was the best of the closers in a dawdling race and seems to have returned to the form that saw him placed in a G1 Doncaster Mile last year. Chris Waller does make a habit of finding the key to a talented horse that has been out of form (think Boban) so I am wary. He would love a bit of rain.
Hi World was OK without being spectacular last start (above) in the same race as Boban and Weary in what his first go against open company at G1 w-f-a level. He's drawn the carpark here and is friendless in the betting but he will be a better horse up to the mile. He's had two wins and a fourth here at this very track in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes (behind Kermadec and Stratum Star) on Derby Day last year.
Volkstok'n'barrell probably needed the run first-up (above) and given it was his first go racing that way of going I think he gets a pass mark. He ticks quite a few boxes because he's never been beaten second-up, he's unbeaten at 1600m and jockey Craig Williams has won this race three times including two of the last four. The wide barrier doesn't help because it's a short run to the first turn. They may press forward so don't be surprised to see him ridden closer to the lead tomorrow.
Fawkner ran second in this race last year behind the flying Dissident and he was resuming from a spell on that occasion too. His three other starts at this track and distance have resulted in a win and two seconds including a narrow defeat (below) in the G1 Emirates Stakes behind Happy Trails although that was back in 2012. He's a five time winner here at Flemington and in eight starts at 1600m he has four wins and three seconds. He'll be up in the first half dozen and I think he'll be in it for a long way.
Alpine Eagle has had just the one run here at Flemington (below) for a gutsy second in the G1 Australian Guineas when unsuited by a farcical tempo. He beat home Stratum Star and the unlucky Kermadec on that occasion and it his only defeat on a dry track to date. His last start was very similar where they went through the first half mile in a pedestrian 51.17 before dashing home in 35.41 so to come from eighth of ninth and finish second was a solid effort. This is his biggest test to date but with seven starts for four wins and three placings he's hard to write off.
All the rest will be at double figure odds but there are some at the longer odds I could entertain in exotics and don't forget three of the last five winners (Foreteller, Littorio and Shocking) have paid $15+.
Happy Trails has failed to win first or second-up in his last three Spring Carnival preparations but his third-up runs have returned a win in the G2 Dato' Chin Nam Stakes (2012) and a fourth and a second in the last two G1 Underwood Stakes respectively. In his last five starts at Flemington he has won a G1 Turnbull Stakes, a G1 Emirates Stakes, a G1 Mackinnon Stakes and finished third in a G1 Australian Cup. Rising Romance will benefit from her last start run and will probably need this hit-out too. Her best two runs in both her last two Spring campaigns came at her third and fourth starts. Entirely Platinum just can't seem to break through at G1 level but he always seems to be thereabouts. The knock is he's only won once in the last year and a half although he has placed in a G1 Orr Stakes, a G1 Memsie Stakes (see replay further above) and a G3 Naturalism Stakes. Two runs at Flemington for no placings. Mongolian Khan is on a Cups trail so he'll probably need the run as his best performances to date have been at 2000m+. Trainer Murray Baker thinks this will be too short for him but his first three career starts were at 1400m-1600m and he did win two of them albeit in much weaker company. Smokin' Joey had an internal bleed last start so overlook that run and his form prior was impressive. He was beaten a nostril (below) by Boban in the G1 Emirates Stakes at this course and distance but that was almost two years ago. Of concern is the fact that he's been unplaced 13 times in 17 starts here and unplaced in 10 of his 12 attempts at 1600m. Prince Of Penzance was the best of the closers in the aforementioned G1 Memsie Stakes apart from Weary. I get the feeling that like a few others he may still need another run but he's two from two at the mile. He has four top two finishes from six starts at Flemington but all beyond 1600m. If there is a complete blowout it will be Gust Of Wind steaming down the outside at $67. Loved her final 100m in the G2 Warwick Stakes first-up.
Locky's Selections
1. Fawkner
3. Boban
3. Boban
11. Volkstok'n'barrell
2. Happy Trails
OTHER BETS
Import
Silverball (Rosehill Race 2 No. 1) has been impressive since coming to Australia with three wins and two seconds from just the seven starts. Third-up last prep he won and he does boast a win here at Rosehill over the 2000m. He was only just pipped by the talented Magic Hurricane last start and it was a further three lengths back to the next horse Kapour and he's no slouch. He's going to be very skinny odds so maybe use him as an anchor leg in your multis.
Form Line
Music Magnate (Rosehill Race 4 No. 4) made Fell Swoop work to win last start and they gapped third which is always a good sign. The winner has since won again and regular readers will know I have a big opinion of him so I think we can follow this lightly raced 4-y-o with some confidence. He also boasts a win over Inz'n'out who has won his last two starts by a combined margin of six lengths and a narrow second to Peeping (also when second-up) in the Listed Fireball Stakes in March this year.
Each-way
Family Ties
No comments:
Post a Comment