The best two minutes in sport. Enough said.
I will be focusing purely on the two big G1's as I am in Melbourne with the lads for the weekend and I have bigger priorities!
This was our view at lunch today.
I will be focusing purely on the two big G1's as I am in Melbourne with the lads for the weekend and I have bigger priorities!
This was our view at lunch today.
Who's Hot?
Tough weekend in Melbourne so I'm looking to Sydney and Team Snowden.
Last weekend they had two Sydney Stakes winners in Nayeli and Dothraki who ran the quinella with stablemate That's A Good Idea. The previous Saturday Serene Majesty won a G3 at Caulfield and the weekend prior to that Capitalist won a Listed race at Randwick.
The have two runners at Moonee Valley - Disclaimer (Race 3 No. 5) tonight and Serene Majesty (Race 5 No. 1) tomorrow - plus three at Randwick tomorrow in Ryker (Race 4 No. 4), Hand From Above (Race 6 No. 2) and Nancy (Race 9 No. 1).
MOONEE VALLEY
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny weekend.***
Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Preferment: Only one favourite (So You Think $1.50) has won in the last nine years and all the other winners returned $6+. Five of those eight returned double figure dividends. The last five winners finished top three at their previous run and four of them were 4-y-o's.
No particular order here just trying to frame a narrative around the key lead-up races.
Winx just keeps putting in incredible performances to win despite bad luck in running and Hugh Bowman has elected to ride her over Preferment which is a big tick. She's drawn the inside barrier so she should get a cosy run and the trip isn't a concern because she finished second in the G1 Australian Oaks to Gust Of Wind who ran well last weekend in the G1 Caulfield Cup. My concern is this is her first go the Melbourne way and I wonder if her racing pattern suits a track with a very short straight. Only three winners of this race in the last 20 years have come off a last start run in the G1 Epsom Handicap and none of them had won it.
Now let's look at the international brigade.
Arod is two from two at the trip and has never missed a place in three first up runs. Last campaign he had five starts for two wins and three placings in Black Type races with his final run being a half length second (below) in the G1 Sussex Stakes behind superstar Solow. That horse has won his last nine starts with the last three being at G1 level.
Gailo Chop has won four times at 2000m and is a winner of seven of 12 overall so his strike rate can't be knocked. He too has Solow form with a one and a half length second three runs back in the G1 Prix D'Ispahan at Longchamp. He'd love a downpour because his best form has been on slow tracks and a wide barrier worries me for a horse having his first look at this track especially given they have a very short run to the first (very sharp) turn.
Criterion made the other local w-f-a types look pretty ordinary when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes last start because he was two months between runs and had basically just stepped out of quarantine at Werribee yet he breezed to a pretty soft win. The horse that finished third was Mongolian Khan and he won last Saturday's G1 Caulfield Cup. Third run in last prep he brained them in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. World class.
Happy Trails was a close second to Criterion that day and finished ahead of Kermadec (4th) and Fawkner (6th) so I am struggling to see why he is at such juicy odds compared to the other three. This is the fourth year in a row he has contested this race and he hasn't been far away in the last two finishing a narrow second to Shamus Award two years ago and a half length sixth last year behind Adelaide. Barrier 13 is not too bad because he'll drift back anyway.
Kermadec was just OK last start but jockey Glen Boss said "he probably wants a bit more jar out of the track". Moonee Valley never really gets that firm so he could improve on this surface given they've had a sprinkling of rain and I'm not too worried about barrier 10 because I'm pretty sure he's going to settle worse than midfield. He was favourite for this race up until his last start defeat and you have to forgive a good horse one bad run.
Pornichet did not beat a runner home last start which is out of character for him. He'll likely be driven out of the wide barrier and attempt to get across into a handy position before they pass the winning post the first time. It just goes to show what a quality field this is when a top class guy like this can start as the $41 despised outsider.
Pornichet did not beat a runner home last start which is out of character for him. He'll likely be driven out of the wide barrier and attempt to get across into a handy position before they pass the winning post the first time. It just goes to show what a quality field this is when a top class guy like this can start as the $41 despised outsider.
Preferment may just be a Spring horse. He won last year's G1 VRC Derby but he had a disappointing Autumn apart from his narrow second in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. He's had three starts this Spring and has won his last two including the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) last start. His previous victory in the G2 Hill Stakes he beat Magic Hurricane (2nd) who then came out and won the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and Complacent (3rd) who came out and won the G3 Craven Plate.
Hartnell was ridden back in the field (above) in the aforementioned G1 Turnbull Stakes won by Preferment in a bid to get him to relax. It seemed to do the trick but it may have worked too well because he was on the back of the winner on straightening but just got out sprinted. He got passed late by Extra Zero which bothers me yet he beat home Amralah, Who Shot Thebarman, Happy Trails and Gust Of Wind who have all since run well. Is he looking for further?
Mourinho is the forgotten horse. His last start win (below) in the G1 Underwood Stakes he relegated Fawkner, The Cleaner and Mongolian Khan to the minor placings. Since being controversially denied a start in this race last year he's started eight time for four wins (three G2's and a G1) and a G1 third. He's had four runs from the 2040m starting point here at Moonee Valley for three wins and a third. They probably have to press forward from the wide gate but hopefully he can get across into some sort of position before the turn out of the straight. $41. Seriously?
Fawkner had this race won last year until Adelaide nailed him in the final bound. Before his last start flop in the G1 Caulfield Stakes I would have said he's going better this time around because I loved his gritty first-up win in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and then he just missed Mourinho (above) in the G1 Underwood Stakes. He's such a good horse he can't be written off and Team Williams have won two G1 Melbourne Cups with last start failures in Green Moon and Efficient so a form reversal wouldn't surprise. Horrible barrier.
The Cleaner will lead from barrier two. That's my bold prediction. It may be my only correct tip all day given they way I'm going. He led them up in this race last year and although he finished ninth he was only beaten three and a half lengths and toughed it out all the way to the line. It'd be great to see him get up because it would be an emotional result but I just think he struggles at a tough mile and a quarter.
Complacent has only missed a place once in his career and that was the day he was taken out of the race by another horse. He spent more than 21 months off the scene injured after his second in the G1 VRC Derby of 2013 but since his return he's won the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (beating home Kermadec, Hartnell, Pornichet and Preferment in the process) and the G3 Craven Plate. Godolphin have flown in their retained rider James Doyle from England to take the ride so they're not mucking about.
Locky's Selections
13. Highland Reel
1. Criterion
3. Happy Trails
11. Kermadec
3. Happy Trails
11. Kermadec
Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: In the last 12 years only three winners have returned more than $5.50.
10 horse field - the five go forward runners drew barriers six through ten while the five get back and run on types drew barriers one through five. Tactics will be interesting.
Chautauqua will start odd-on which looks a scary prospect given he'll probably have to come from well back in the field. I don't see a lot of speed in the race but what I do see is a lot of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if he absolutely brained them here but there's no way I can take such a skinny quote. Certainly a must for quaddies and other exotics but I don't see him as a straight out win bet option. Beat a few of these (below) when winning the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes earlier this year.
Terravista has shown himself to be one of the best sprinters in the country when he is right looking back at his win (below) in last year's G1 Darley Classic when he beat home the likes of Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee, Buffering and Rebel Dane. He's three from five second-up and five from eight at the trip and you could make an argument that he should have won this race last year when he was completely luckless in running. His fresh win was good and he's sure to improve with a run under his belt.
Srikandi is only having two runs this Spring and then she's off to the spelling paddock so expect her to be forward in condition. She'll be closer to the leaders than some of the other fancied runners which is a big plus and she has won at her last two first-up appearances. She's a two time G1 winner already and she rarely runs a bad race with nine wins and two placings from 13 starts.
Buffering is silly odds considering he is likely to get a pretty soft time up front. He's a five time winner at this track including three at this distance. He appears to be getting better with age because from 13 starts in the last two years he has five wins (all at G1 level) and four placings. He was a half length sixth in a blanket finish in this race last year and he won it the previous year. A last start winner here (below) in the G1 Moir Stakes - his third in four years.
Rebel Dane has come back a much more genuine horse since his throat operation. In four starts here he's never won and has only placed once but he was one of the many hard luck stories in this race last year so he gets around the tight circuit fine. The problem is he could face a similar story this year because he's going to get back to worse than midfield. He took ground off Terravista late last start but the other horse was first-up off a break and wasn't knocked about.
Alpha Miss surprised almost everyone when a shock winner last start in the G2 Schillaci Stakes beating odds-on favourite Lankan Rupee. However if you overlook her three poor performances last Spring her form reads well. She won three of her first four starts then was a half length third to Earthquake and Mossfun in the G2 Reisling Stakes before failing on a heavy track in the G1 Golden Slipper. She isn't the first filly to disappoint as a 3-y-o after a tough 2-y-o season and maybe the long spell was just what she needed.
Fast 'n' Rocking always seems to run well here and the stable is in good touch at the moment. His last start win was convincing. Rich Enuff has the blinkers on for the first time so they might switch him on. He'll probably try to hold Buffering out and find the lead. If he recaptures the form of last Spring he's more than capable. Griante chased hard behind Buffering last start and had the best closing sectionals but again it was set-up for the swoopers. She ran a two length third to Lucky Hussler in the G1 William Reid Stakes at this track and distance last March. Three starts back she chased home Fell Swoop and two starts back she was a narrow second to Politeness. Both those horses won at their next starts. Tiger Tees is a half brother to Terravista and a full brother to Ball Of Muscle but he's the brother the rest of the family doesn't talk about. I know how he feels.
Locky's Selections
1. Buffering
8. Srikandi
2. Chautauqua
9. Griante
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: In the last 12 years only three winners have returned more than $5.50.
10 horse field - the five go forward runners drew barriers six through ten while the five get back and run on types drew barriers one through five. Tactics will be interesting.
Chautauqua will start odd-on which looks a scary prospect given he'll probably have to come from well back in the field. I don't see a lot of speed in the race but what I do see is a lot of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if he absolutely brained them here but there's no way I can take such a skinny quote. Certainly a must for quaddies and other exotics but I don't see him as a straight out win bet option. Beat a few of these (below) when winning the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes earlier this year.
Srikandi is only having two runs this Spring and then she's off to the spelling paddock so expect her to be forward in condition. She'll be closer to the leaders than some of the other fancied runners which is a big plus and she has won at her last two first-up appearances. She's a two time G1 winner already and she rarely runs a bad race with nine wins and two placings from 13 starts.
Buffering is silly odds considering he is likely to get a pretty soft time up front. He's a five time winner at this track including three at this distance. He appears to be getting better with age because from 13 starts in the last two years he has five wins (all at G1 level) and four placings. He was a half length sixth in a blanket finish in this race last year and he won it the previous year. A last start winner here (below) in the G1 Moir Stakes - his third in four years.
Rebel Dane has come back a much more genuine horse since his throat operation. In four starts here he's never won and has only placed once but he was one of the many hard luck stories in this race last year so he gets around the tight circuit fine. The problem is he could face a similar story this year because he's going to get back to worse than midfield. He took ground off Terravista late last start but the other horse was first-up off a break and wasn't knocked about.
Alpha Miss surprised almost everyone when a shock winner last start in the G2 Schillaci Stakes beating odds-on favourite Lankan Rupee. However if you overlook her three poor performances last Spring her form reads well. She won three of her first four starts then was a half length third to Earthquake and Mossfun in the G2 Reisling Stakes before failing on a heavy track in the G1 Golden Slipper. She isn't the first filly to disappoint as a 3-y-o after a tough 2-y-o season and maybe the long spell was just what she needed.
Fast 'n' Rocking always seems to run well here and the stable is in good touch at the moment. His last start win was convincing. Rich Enuff has the blinkers on for the first time so they might switch him on. He'll probably try to hold Buffering out and find the lead. If he recaptures the form of last Spring he's more than capable. Griante chased hard behind Buffering last start and had the best closing sectionals but again it was set-up for the swoopers. She ran a two length third to Lucky Hussler in the G1 William Reid Stakes at this track and distance last March. Three starts back she chased home Fell Swoop and two starts back she was a narrow second to Politeness. Both those horses won at their next starts. Tiger Tees is a half brother to Terravista and a full brother to Ball Of Muscle but he's the brother the rest of the family doesn't talk about. I know how he feels.
Locky's Selections
1. Buffering
8. Srikandi
8. Srikandi
2. Chautauqua
9. Griante
9. Griante
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