Cup Day. Or as my grandfather used to call it - "that midweek welter handicap".
A very short blog focusing on the main race because as always I am
on holidays this week and have four of these to write over a space of eight
days - usually whilst hungover.
Add that to the fact that I also have to try and fit in the odd
swim, a dozen games of NFL, the Rugby World Cup final and the start of the
First Test and I will be a very drunk busy boy.
It’s a tough life but at least I have a window office.
Who's Hot?
Phillip Stokes brought just two runners from his Morphettville base in SA to Flemington on Derby Day and bagged a G2 win with Eclair Choice. He did a similar thing last year training four winners over the carnival with three coming on the final day including the G1 Emirates Stakes with Hucklebuck.
Tomorrow he has just the one runner in Comprende (Flemington Race 6 No. 7).
FLEMINGTON
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day.***
The Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
If you watch Channel 7 tomorrow at one stage or another you
are going to hear a "tipster" (no doubt some fatuous bimbo from a soap opera) say that all 24 of these have a chance.
The
reality is they do not.
Every year the Melbourne Cup is run and the next day
the newspaper shows a panoramic photo of where they all finished and almost
always you have about 14 of the 24 who get beaten by 100 yards or more. So the key is to finding the horses you know will see out a strong 3200m and have the
profile to be competitive.
So for what it is worth here is my never humble opinion.
I have Trip To Paris on top. He is a G1 Ascot Gold Cup
winner over 4000m, he has had one run in Australia and proved he has acclimatised with a narrow second (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup, with 55kg he is well
weighted and he has a local jockey. The favourite Fame Game is obviously the
main danger but the 57kg worries me and although he was the eye-catcher in the
G1 Caulfiled Cup he was still four and a half lengths astern of Trip To Paris.
I think the best of the local hopes is Preferment because he has the pedigree
for this journey (his sire Zabeel has produced three Cup winners) and he’s had
two starts here at Flemington for wins in the G1 VRC Derby and G1 Turnbull
Stakes. He won’t know himself with just 53.5kg. I’m rounding out my Top Four
with a roughie to add a bit of value to exotics and that horse is Red Cadeuax.
He looks juicy odds at $31+ for a horse who has run in this race four times for
three seconds and he looks well weighted too.
Of the others in the market I think Criterion (below) is poorly
weighted and a query at the two miles. Max Dynamite has not had a run in this
country which I don’t like but he has form around Trip To Paris. Who Shot
Thebarman is one you know will definitely see out the 3200m but he couldn’t win
last year with a similar weight and this field looks much stronger. Almoonqith
was dominant in the G3 Geelong Cup but while that race was a good guide for a
little while the last few renewals have been pretty weak. The United States
defied the track pattern to win the G2 Moonee Valley Cup but it has been a poor
reference race and he’s another who is on trial at the distance.
For those of you who like to go for big priced longshots of
those that I haven’t mentioned yet Our Ivanhowe went well in the G1 Caulfield
Cup but the big weight and the likelihood of a firm surface won’t suit him.
Hartnell went OK (above) in the G1 Cox Plate and gives the appearance he’s looking for
the longer journey now. Hokko Brave had a wide run last start at Caulfield and
didn’t shirk the task. Grand Marshal is a G1 Sydney Cup winner so the two miles holds no fears
and he was luckless in the run to the line last start and should have finished
closer. Gust Of Wind has just 51kg and won the G1 ATC Oaks by two and a half
lengths beating Winx. Her fourth in the G1 Caulfield Cup was good and she looks like further will be to her advantage.
But just be aware that since Tawriffic saluted in 1989 only two winners in the last quarter of a century have paid $21 or more.
Good luck!
Locky's Selections
10. Trip To Paris
3. Fame Game
15. Preferment
9. Red Cadeaux
15. Preferment
9. Red Cadeaux
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