Favourite backers beware - this has been a tough day to find winners in recent years with bolters getting up like Appearance ($53), Smokin' Joey ($46), Fiveandahalfstar ($21) and Fontelina twice at $10+.
In fact over the last two years there have been 18 races run and only three favourites have saluted the judge. Eleven of the winners paid $7 or more with eight of those returning double figure odds.
So let's hope I find us some winners because the returns could be massive.
In fact over the last two years there have been 18 races run and only three favourites have saluted the judge. Eleven of the winners paid $7 or more with eight of those returning double figure odds.
So let's hope I find us some winners because the returns could be massive.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Hard to go past Joao Moreira. Since claiming a Black Type treble at Randwick four weeks ago he has ridden 10 winners from just five meetings in Hong Kong including a quaddie, a treble and a double.
Tomorrow at Flemington he has several good chances including Azkadelia (Race 1 No. 15), Brazen Beau (Race 4 No. 2), Signoff (Race 5 No. 9), He's Your Man (Race 6 No. 8) and Atmosphere (Race 7 No. 11).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a strong chance of rain in the morning and showers in the afternoon with the possibility of hail. ***
Victoria Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Atmosphere : Only one favourite has won in the last nine years whereas five have paid double figure odds. All had finished top three at their last start. Trainer Trent Busuttin won this race three years ago with Sangster.
"The Speed Map" says - Hard to say. With the three-year-olds stepping up to 2500m for the first time previous racing patterns may not be much of a guide.
Hampton Court is a worthy favourite after chasing down First Seal and Sweynesse last time in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (below). Sweynesse has since run a bottler in the G1 Cox Plate last week and the way this bloke blew past him the previous run gives every indication he will relish the 2500m, especially given the suicidal tempo of the aforementioned contest.
Preferment is another who looks like he will eat a mile and a half. He looked like a beaten horse in the Listed Geelong Classic before rallying late to just miss. He's a son of Zabeel so that's also a plus in a staying feature. He may still be a maiden but he is only now getting to a distance that suits. Blinkers go on so that's a good sign it's D-Day for this bloke and his jockey has won this race four times previously.
Best of the rest is probably Nozomi who beat Preferment at Geelong and Gouldian who beat the same horse last start although he does go straight from 1600m to 2500m which is a concern.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Hard to say. With the three-year-olds stepping up to 2500m for the first time previous racing patterns may not be much of a guide.
Hampton Court is a worthy favourite after chasing down First Seal and Sweynesse last time in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (below). Sweynesse has since run a bottler in the G1 Cox Plate last week and the way this bloke blew past him the previous run gives every indication he will relish the 2500m, especially given the suicidal tempo of the aforementioned contest.
Preferment is another who looks like he will eat a mile and a half. He looked like a beaten horse in the Listed Geelong Classic before rallying late to just miss. He's a son of Zabeel so that's also a plus in a staying feature. He may still be a maiden but he is only now getting to a distance that suits. Blinkers go on so that's a good sign it's D-Day for this bloke and his jockey has won this race four times previously.
Moonovermanhattan was solid in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley last weekend and he has the advantage of being an on-pace runner whereas most of his main dangers here will be coming from the second half of the field you would think. Yet another that looks as if he will run out a strong 2500m.
Atmosphere has a lot of upside. Trainer has won this race before. Jockey is arguably the best on the planet. Drawn well to get a good run. Every time they have raised the bar he has responded. Keeps getting better as the distances get further. Can he win a Derby as a maiden at just his fifth career start?
Bondeiger was a bit unlucky last start after copping a bump that hampered him badly near the turn but he still picked himself up and finished the race off well. From the inside gate he's going to get all the favours here and his closing sectionals last weekend were those of a horse who will have no problems with the journey.
Best of the rest is probably Nozomi who beat Preferment at Geelong and Gouldian who beat the same horse last start although he does go straight from 1600m to 2500m which is a concern.
13 Preferment
1 Hampton Court
9 Bondeiger
11 Atmosphere
1 Hampton Court
9 Bondeiger
11 Atmosphere
Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** Side Glance is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Foreteller, Happy Trails or Criterion : Since the turn of the century nine of the 14 winners of this race came via the G1 Cox Plate and eight of them were unplaced. Only one favourite has won since 2006.
"The Speed Map" says - Brambles, Mourinho and Amralah go forward. Star Rolling and Rising Romance can be handy too. Happy Trails, Foreteller, Hawkspur, Moriarty, Spillway and Criterion get back. Not sure what they do with He's Your Man???
Happy Trails was close up in a busy finish in last week's G1 Cox Plate (below) where the first six over the line finished within three quarters of a length of each other. Last Spring he won the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance. He always seems to find trouble in his races due to his racing pattern but he is undeniably talented as shown by his two G1 wins and a close second in last year's G1 Cox Plate and this year's G1 Underwood Stakes.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Brambles, Mourinho and Amralah go forward. Star Rolling and Rising Romance can be handy too. Happy Trails, Foreteller, Hawkspur, Moriarty, Spillway and Criterion get back. Not sure what they do with He's Your Man???
He's Your Man is the fresh horse on the scene having not started since his triumph in the G1 Epsom Handicap (below). He got in on the minimum weight that day in a handicap so the question is can he make the step up to weight-for-age but that race looks strong with Hooked (3rd), Pheidon (6th) and Spy Decoder (12th) all subsequent winners.
Criterion has never missed a top two finish at 2000m from four attempts and his Flemington record is sound with a fourth here on this day last year in the G1 Victoria Derby. He also ran second to Shamus Award in the G1 Australian Guineas at this track. He didn't seem to handle Moonee Valley last Saturday so his effort to finish seventh beaten just a length and a half was admirable. Once he did get balanced he savaged the line and this assignment does look much easier.
Rising Romance looked home in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) before being nabbed by Admire Ratki on the line. I like the fact that they never intended to run in a Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup and have instead targeted this race. She didn't have a gutbuster last week like a few of these others and the freshen-up to 2000m back from the 2400m means she'll be strong at the end. Only two mares have won this race in the last 23 years - concern?
The rest are $11+ but the best of them appear to be Foreteller who was also good in last week's G1 Cox Plate (above) when fifth beaten just over half a length after copping a bump at the top of the straight. His stablemates Hawkspur and Moriarty ran well in the G1 Caulfield Cup as did Brambles. Spillway can improve back to 2000m and the last two runs of Star Rolling weren't bad and he is two from three at this track and distance. Amralah the knockout horse?
Locky's Selections
15 Rising Romance
8 He's Your Man
2 Happy Trails
11 Spillway
Bonaria (Flemington Race 8 No. 6) is a Flemington mile specialist with three wins from four attempts. There were genuine excuses last time out and earlier this prep she was on the heels of Commanding Jewel and Dear Demi. W-f-a suits as she will be meeting many of these on much better terms than she has been in the handicaps. $26.
8 He's Your Man
2 Happy Trails
11 Spillway
Other bets
Our Vespa (Flemington Race 1 No. 1) looked a bit stiff in the G3 Guineas Prelude when he nearly fell. It's amazing he finished the race at all and yet he still had the cheek to run past a few in the straight. Prior to that he was five from seven and had never missed a drum. $9.
Woodbine (Flemington Race 3 No. 10) was pretty good in the G1 Epsom Handicap given he sat up on a hot speed and only got tired late. He was beaten just over three lengths on that occasion and back to the 1400m in an easier race with the minimum weight he looks a worthy betting proposition. $7.50.
Bonaria (Flemington Race 8 No. 6) is a Flemington mile specialist with three wins from four attempts. There were genuine excuses last time out and earlier this prep she was on the heels of Commanding Jewel and Dear Demi. W-f-a suits as she will be meeting many of these on much better terms than she has been in the handicaps. $26.
Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!
No comments:
Post a Comment