The Cox Plate. The best two minutes in sport. Enough said.
Only eleven days to "The Cup"...
Only eleven days to "The Cup"...
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Blake Shinn is reaping the rewards of staying in Sydney while other jockeys chase Spring riches down south. In the last three weeks he has ridden 15 winners at a strike rate of 34.9%.
He has three rides at Canterbury tonight and six at Rosehill tomorrow and all appear to have genuine winning chances.
Moonee Valley
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy couple of days with a slight chance of some light rain. ***
Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee, Buffering or Terravista : 13 of the last 15 winners returned $8 or less. In that same period only one winner had not run a place at their last start.
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead Lankan Rupee and Bounding. Moment of Change will probably press forward from out wide and Terravista won't be far away. Temple of Boom, Not Listenin'tome and Angelic Light can all be in the front half of the field too. Lots of pace here. It might suit the horses who get back and run on like Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus, Iconic and Platelet.
Terravista has only missed a top two finish once in the last year and that was on a bog track in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. His other eights starts resulted in a second and seven wins including the G2 The Shorts, the G3 Liverpool City Cup and the G3 Southern Cross Stakes. Unbeaten in six attempts at 1200m or less.
Lankan Rupee has a pretty good record over the last 12 months too. He's had ten starts for seven wins including the G1 Oakleigh Plate, G1 Newmarket Handicap and G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. He has been placed in his three other runs - coincidentally right here at Moonee Valley. Granted he's only been beaten a lip at his last two and he had excuses the other time because he pullled up with "the thumps" (cardiac arrhythmia) but you have to wonder if he isn't quite as effective here. One more chance?
Platelet hasn't missed a top two finish in her last five runs and her last three second-up runs have resulted in a win in the G2 Gilgai Stakes and seconds in successive G3 Irwin Stakes. Has one win and two seconds here at Moonee Valley plus a one and a half length fifth to Buffering in the (then) G2 Moir Stakes two years ago.
The best roughie is probably Not Listenin'tome if he can recapture his previous form.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead Lankan Rupee and Bounding. Moment of Change will probably press forward from out wide and Terravista won't be far away. Temple of Boom, Not Listenin'tome and Angelic Light can all be in the front half of the field too. Lots of pace here. It might suit the horses who get back and run on like Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus, Iconic and Platelet.
Terravista has only missed a top two finish once in the last year and that was on a bog track in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. His other eights starts resulted in a second and seven wins including the G2 The Shorts, the G3 Liverpool City Cup and the G3 Southern Cross Stakes. Unbeaten in six attempts at 1200m or less.
Lankan Rupee has a pretty good record over the last 12 months too. He's had ten starts for seven wins including the G1 Oakleigh Plate, G1 Newmarket Handicap and G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. He has been placed in his three other runs - coincidentally right here at Moonee Valley. Granted he's only been beaten a lip at his last two and he had excuses the other time because he pullled up with "the thumps" (cardiac arrhythmia) but you have to wonder if he isn't quite as effective here. One more chance?
Buffering is the defending champ and is coming off a victory in the G1 Moir Stakes (above) where he took care of many of his rivals here tonight (Lankan Rupee, Rebel Dane and Angelic Light). He is as honest as the day is long and has four wins and two placings from eight starts at "The Valley" including three wins at this distance. I can't have him on top but he's an old warhorse and I love him so if he does manage to hang on I'll still be cheering.
Rebel Dane will get last crack at them you would think with so much speed on paper. He was the best closer in the G1 Moir Stakes (above) especially given they didn't run overly fast time. If he gets a cold run off the pace given his good draw he could be the one coming late and run over the top of them.
Platelet hasn't missed a top two finish in her last five runs and her last three second-up runs have resulted in a win in the G2 Gilgai Stakes and seconds in successive G3 Irwin Stakes. Has one win and two seconds here at Moonee Valley plus a one and a half length fifth to Buffering in the (then) G2 Moir Stakes two years ago.
The best roughie is probably Not Listenin'tome if he can recapture his previous form.
Locky's Selections
2 Lankan Rupee
5 Rebel Dane
1 Buffering
7 Terravista
5 Rebel Dane
1 Buffering
7 Terravista
Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - The Cleaner : Only two favourites have won in the last 11 years. Seven of the winners in that same period paid double figure odds ($11 - $26). Nine were male and seven had placed at their last start.
"The Speed Map" says - The Cleaner to lead. Adelaide to push forward from a wide gate. Fawkner and Royal Descent to be close from inside draws. Suspect Side Glance and Silent Achiever will want to be handy too. Criterion, Happy Trails, Foreteller and Sacred Falls go back. Don't care where they go with Guest Of Honour because he couldn't win if he started now. Not sure about Sweynesse and Wandjina. Of late they have been most effective ridden cold but do they try to take advantage of their featherweights? One thing is for sure - with The Cleaner here we won't get a trot-and-canter affair here like we did last year.
Fawkner is in red hot form and has been trained to the minute for this with two great runs under his belt including a great fresh run when he just missed Dissident in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes before taking out the G1 Caulfield Stakes (below) a fortnight ago. He dispatched many of his rivals here tomorrow in that race (Criterion, Side Glance, Happy Trails, Sacred Falls and Foreteller) and is drawn to get a great run.
Sacred Falls is yet to win beyond 1600m but he did run a slashing second to It's A Dundeel in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (below) in April. He stormed home from well back off a strong tempo (just like he'll get here tomorrow) and was strong at the finish. In form hoop Zac Purton to ride. He got too far back in the G1 Caulfield Stakes but produced the best finish in a muddling run race.
Adelaide is the unknown quantity a bit like Admire Ratki last week so I am wary. Three wins and four placings from seven starts. Three of those were at this trip for two wins and a second. He's shown he can travel with a win in the G1 Secretariat Stakes (below) in the U.S. and an unlucky defeat last time out in France in the G2 Prix Niel. He's also run in Ireland and England so this is his fifth country in just eight starts.
The rest are $21+ but the best of them appear to be Foreteller who was a closing fourth in this race last year and he did win the G1 Underwood Stakes just two starts back if you can forgive his below par effort last time out. Side Glance was thereabouts last start in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and he did win last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes a week after running sixth in this race. Almalad is one from one here after winning the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes but Sweynesse is the pick of the three-year-olds for mine. He tasted defeat for the first time last start but there were excuses and it was a strong staying performance.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - The Cleaner to lead. Adelaide to push forward from a wide gate. Fawkner and Royal Descent to be close from inside draws. Suspect Side Glance and Silent Achiever will want to be handy too. Criterion, Happy Trails, Foreteller and Sacred Falls go back. Don't care where they go with Guest Of Honour because he couldn't win if he started now. Not sure about Sweynesse and Wandjina. Of late they have been most effective ridden cold but do they try to take advantage of their featherweights? One thing is for sure - with The Cleaner here we won't get a trot-and-canter affair here like we did last year.
Fawkner is in red hot form and has been trained to the minute for this with two great runs under his belt including a great fresh run when he just missed Dissident in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes before taking out the G1 Caulfield Stakes (below) a fortnight ago. He dispatched many of his rivals here tomorrow in that race (Criterion, Side Glance, Happy Trails, Sacred Falls and Foreteller) and is drawn to get a great run.
Criterion was great behind Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (above) when a fast finishing second and he has a real sense of timing about him. He's at his fifth run in and last prep at the same stage he won the G1 ATC Derby. He was the subject of good early support in the market this week ($9 to $7.50) and although regular hoop Hugh Bowman misses the ride due to suspension they lose nothing in replacement jock James McDonald. He's already won the G1 Caulfield Guineas and G3 David Jones Cup and was unlucky not to lift the G1 Caulfield Cup.
Silent Achiever also contested that race (above) and didn't seem to finish the race off anywhere nearly as strongly. She has one win from one attempt here at Moonee Valley but she has not placed in eight subsequent Melbourne runs. Nash Rawiller comes back from Hong Kong to take the ride and that could be significant because he's only ridden the mare three times for two wins - the G1 Ranvet Stakes and the G1 BMW.
Royal Descent is so honest and consistent but she's a bit of a money muncher. Her three-year-old form reads well with four wins and two placings from seven starts including a mammoth ten length victory in the G1 Australian Oaks. Since then however it's been 13 runs for no wins, seven seconds and a third. Many of those seconds were in top notch races like the G1 George Main Stakes (twice), G1 Doncaster Mile and the G1 Epsom Handicap (below) but she hasn't won in 18 months and she was well beaten over this trip in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in the autumn.
Happy Trails was second in this race last year and should get a nice smother and drag into the race from his good draw - provided he doesn't run into dead ends like he did two starts back in the G1 Turnbull Stakes where he went to the line effectively untested. His last start fourth to Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Stakes was better but he'll need to improve.
Adelaide is the unknown quantity a bit like Admire Ratki last week so I am wary. Three wins and four placings from seven starts. Three of those were at this trip for two wins and a second. He's shown he can travel with a win in the G1 Secretariat Stakes (below) in the U.S. and an unlucky defeat last time out in France in the G2 Prix Niel. He's also run in Ireland and England so this is his fifth country in just eight starts.
The Cleaner will be the crowd favourite and he will give his backers a good sight for a long way. I can't see anyone taking him on because it would be a suicide mission and if he is allowed to bowl along and then pour on the pressure from the 700m mark he will be hard to catch. He is clearly the best performed Valley horse too (6:4-1-1).
Locky's Selections
2 Fawkner
1 Sacred Falls
6 The Cleaner
11 Adelaide
Larrikan Prince (Rosehill Race 2 No. 2) is worth a tickle each-way at big odds. He was forced to drop back on debut after drawing a wide barrier. He charged to the line late so the extra 100m here appeals. He beat home Salerno that day and that colt has subsequently won. Opened $21.
Speediness (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 6 No. 1) is four runs into his prep. At the same stage last Autumn he went within a whisker of claiming in the G1 George Ryder Stakes (below). He went super fresh in the G3 Bobbie Lewis and just missed dual G1 winner Trust In A Gust last start in the G1 Toorak. Meets him a half kilo better off here. Second in this race last year to Toydini. Sacred Falls was third. Opened $4.80.
Opinion (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 5 No. 7) finished second in the G1 Metropolitan splitting Junoob and Araldo and both those horses were competitive in last saturday's G1 Caulfield Cup. Also ran second to The Offer in the G1 Sydney Cup and the G3 Manion Cup. Looks well weighted here. Rider Zac Purton has combined with this stable to win the last two G1 Doncaster Handicaps and is fresh from his success aboard Admire Ratki in last weekend's G1 Caulfield Cup. Opened $3.30.
1 Sacred Falls
6 The Cleaner
11 Adelaide
Other bets
Larrikan Prince (Rosehill Race 2 No. 2) is worth a tickle each-way at big odds. He was forced to drop back on debut after drawing a wide barrier. He charged to the line late so the extra 100m here appeals. He beat home Salerno that day and that colt has subsequently won. Opened $21.
Speediness (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 6 No. 1) is four runs into his prep. At the same stage last Autumn he went within a whisker of claiming in the G1 George Ryder Stakes (below). He went super fresh in the G3 Bobbie Lewis and just missed dual G1 winner Trust In A Gust last start in the G1 Toorak. Meets him a half kilo better off here. Second in this race last year to Toydini. Sacred Falls was third. Opened $4.80.
Opinion (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 5 No. 7) finished second in the G1 Metropolitan splitting Junoob and Araldo and both those horses were competitive in last saturday's G1 Caulfield Cup. Also ran second to The Offer in the G1 Sydney Cup and the G3 Manion Cup. Looks well weighted here. Rider Zac Purton has combined with this stable to win the last two G1 Doncaster Handicaps and is fresh from his success aboard Admire Ratki in last weekend's G1 Caulfield Cup. Opened $3.30.
Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!
No comments:
Post a Comment