Well the AFL and NRL seasons have finally been put to bed and we can focus solely on the Spring Carnival now. About time too because we're only a week out from the G1 Caulfield Cup, a fortnight away from the G1 Cox Plate and the Flemington Carnival begins in three weeks with G1 VRC Derby Day.
Tomorrow is cracker too with four G1's - the Caulfield Guineas, the Thousand Guineas, the Caulfield Stakes and the Toorak Handicap. There are several good support races too with all nine events on the program carrying Black Type status including the G2 Schillaci Stakes for the sprinters and the G2 Herbert Power Stakes for the Caulfield Cup hopefuls.
Let's hope the good form continues because last week two of the Best Bets saluted in Brazen Beau and Famous Seamus while Maastricht (2nd) just missed and we nearly had the Doncaster trifecta with the top four selections finishing first, second and a narrow fourth (He's Your Man, Royal Descent & Ninth Legion).
Tomorrow is cracker too with four G1's - the Caulfield Guineas, the Thousand Guineas, the Caulfield Stakes and the Toorak Handicap. There are several good support races too with all nine events on the program carrying Black Type status including the G2 Schillaci Stakes for the sprinters and the G2 Herbert Power Stakes for the Caulfield Cup hopefuls.
Let's hope the good form continues because last week two of the Best Bets saluted in Brazen Beau and Famous Seamus while Maastricht (2nd) just missed and we nearly had the Doncaster trifecta with the top four selections finishing first, second and a narrow fourth (He's Your Man, Royal Descent & Ninth Legion).
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Gai Waterhouse and Tommy Berry are both in good touch. Tommy has ridden 11 winners in the last 16 days including six for Gai. They've already won three feature races this Spring with Sweet Idea (Missile Stakes), Greatwood (Premiers Cup) and Almalad (Stutt Stakes). Gai herself has had 10 winners since the start of the month including a two state treble last weekend - Vancouver, Hampton Court (Randwick) and Forever Loved (Flemington).
They combine at Caulfield tomorrow for Helford River (Race 1 No. 8), Overreach (Race 4 No. 4) and Almalad (Race 9 No. 2).
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy morning clearing to a sunny afternoon. ***
Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** Our Vespa is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Looks Like The Cat : 16 of the last 20 winners paid $9 or less. Seven of the last 11 came via the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude and finished top four. Nine of the last 13 favourites have been beaten.
"The Speed Map" says - Almalad and Rich Enuff to go forward from their wide barriers. Looks Like The Cat and Shooting To Win settle behind them and Kumaon can be closer tomorrow from barrier two. Chivalry to drift back.
Rich Enuff is a short priced favourite and deservedly so after an unbeaten three run sequence this campaign where he has been quite simply dominant. Michael Rodd has just two rides tomorrow after getting the sack from Happy Trails so he'll be fired up to prove the knockers wrong you would think.
Looks Like The Cat is still doing a few things wrong in his races and he'll need to get that out of his system because you need to do everything right to win a race like this. He's obviously got potential because some pundits are talking about a potential G1 Cox Plate start if he wins here tomorrow.
Shooting To Win thrashed his rivals last start in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes to follow up on his fast closing third in the G1 Golden Rose at his previous start (below). The form out of that race looks pretty strong now because several of the horses that finished behind him on that day (Almalad, Nostradamus, Press Report, Bring Me The Maid, Kumaon & Bachman) have since run very well in Black Type races.
Almalad has to overcome a horror draw but he is a G1 winner at 1600m already having claimed the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm in June. His run to claim the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes was full of merit but I just question whether that is as strong a race as the G3 Guineas Prelude or the G1 Golden Rose and G2 Stan Fox Stakes.
The first two runs by Chivalry this prep were good and I'm prepared to overlook last start as he was held up at a vital stage. He'll be running on but he's on a Derby trail and he might already be looking for further. Zebulon was also unlucky in the same race and his previous form is good. Merion took care of both those horses at his last start and his first-up effort behind Rich Enuff (his only defeat to date) was sound. Kumaoan ran on well from the tail of the field at his last start and has two goes at the mile for thirds in the G1 Champagne Stakes and G2 Bill Stutt Stakes. He can be handier tomorrow from the inside draw and stepping up to 1600m. Moonovermanhattan was solid in the same race.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Almalad and Rich Enuff to go forward from their wide barriers. Looks Like The Cat and Shooting To Win settle behind them and Kumaon can be closer tomorrow from barrier two. Chivalry to drift back.
Rich Enuff is a short priced favourite and deservedly so after an unbeaten three run sequence this campaign where he has been quite simply dominant. Michael Rodd has just two rides tomorrow after getting the sack from Happy Trails so he'll be fired up to prove the knockers wrong you would think.
Looks Like The Cat is still doing a few things wrong in his races and he'll need to get that out of his system because you need to do everything right to win a race like this. He's obviously got potential because some pundits are talking about a potential G1 Cox Plate start if he wins here tomorrow.
Shooting To Win thrashed his rivals last start in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes to follow up on his fast closing third in the G1 Golden Rose at his previous start (below). The form out of that race looks pretty strong now because several of the horses that finished behind him on that day (Almalad, Nostradamus, Press Report, Bring Me The Maid, Kumaon & Bachman) have since run very well in Black Type races.
The first two runs by Chivalry this prep were good and I'm prepared to overlook last start as he was held up at a vital stage. He'll be running on but he's on a Derby trail and he might already be looking for further. Zebulon was also unlucky in the same race and his previous form is good. Merion took care of both those horses at his last start and his first-up effort behind Rich Enuff (his only defeat to date) was sound. Kumaoan ran on well from the tail of the field at his last start and has two goes at the mile for thirds in the G1 Champagne Stakes and G2 Bill Stutt Stakes. He can be handier tomorrow from the inside draw and stepping up to 1600m. Moonovermanhattan was solid in the same race.
Locky's Selections
3 Rich Enuff
7 Looks Like The Cat
4 Shooting To Win
9 Merion
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Sistine Demon (Caulfield Race 3 No. 3) doesn't go so well first and second-up but he has a great record three runs and further into a prep (11:7-1-1). He's five from six at the 1400m including two victories here at Caulfield. Looks well weighted with just 2.5kg over the minimum. Opened $4.50.
Overreach (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) has had two trials in preparation for this and won both by big margins. She hasn't been sighted since April last year but given her value as a broodmare I can't imagine she'd be here unless she was 100%. She's nominated for the G1 Manikato Stakes in a fortnight and the G1 Darley Classic two weeks later so they're setting the bar high but she is a G1 Golden Slipper winner (beating subsequent Black Type winners Sidestep, Sweet Idea and Guelph). Opened $4.00.
Afleet Esprit (Caulfield Race 8 No. 3) just keeps winning and the bookies continue to allow us to get on. She's drawn to get the gun run here from the inside marble and meets most of her rivals better off at the weights than when she beat them in the G2 Tranquil Star two weeks ago. The stable is flying and Damien Oliver has won this race five times. Opened $6.00.
7 Looks Like The Cat
4 Shooting To Win
9 Merion
Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Happy Trails : 17 of the last 20 winners returned single figure odds. Five of the last six winners came via the G1 Underwood Stakes. Damien Oliver has won this race four times.
"The Speed Map" says - Crackerjack King to lead as he did last start especially now he has drawn out wide. Side Glance could be up there too. Fawkner, Criterion and Dissident to be handy. So too Dear Demi from the good gate. Stablemates Sacred Falls and Foreteller in the second half of the field.
Dissident is hard to knock. His three runs this prep have all been at G1 level and he has won two and been narrowly beaten in the other when giving the winner 6kg. If there is a concern it is that his only attempt at 2000m was average (a six length sixth to Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas back in April) and his form when he gets deep into a preparation reads badly. Is he just a good fresh sprinter-miler? The jury is still out.
Fawkner looked every bit as good as Dissident in the above race and he was first-up so I expect him to take plenty of improvement from that run. Second-up record looks good on paper (5:3-1-0) but it's worth noting his last second-up effort was a two and a half length fifth in last year's G1 George Main Stakes. He's no stranger to the track having claimed last year's G1 Caulfield Cup here 51 weeks ago (below) and I think he'll be in the finish despite the fact that I think his Grand Final is still two weeks away at Moonee Valley.
Sacred Falls won the G1 George Main Stakes last start and that form is looking good now with Royal Descent (2nd) subsequently a narrow second in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Lucia Valentina (6th) victorious in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. He's had two starts at this distance for two G1 seconds behind It's A Dundeel, the most recent a fighting effort in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April (below). He's a three time G1 winner already and looks right on target for the G1 Cox Plate in a fortnight. Zac Purton flies in from Hong Kong to take the ride.
Foreteller looks to be over the odds for mine. He's a last start winner of the G1 Underwood Stakes and the form from that race has been franked with Lidari (4th) running a slashing second in last weekend's G1 Turnbull Stakes. That was his third win here at The Heath following previous victories in the G2 St George Stakes and G3 Coongy. He also ran second in this race last year to Atlantic Jewel. He can struggle to run on off a hot speed so it will all come down to how hard they go in front.
Dear Demi was impressive winning the G2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley and I loved the way she attacked the line but that was her first win in 17 months and she is yet to win in open company. Criterion chased home Junoob last start and he's since won the G1 Metropolitan. Fourth-up last prep he strolled home in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. Crackerjack King is a winner of three from five at 2000m and I liked his effort last start in the G1 Underwood Stakes when he staved off everyone bar Foreteller and Happy Trails. Side Glance has only raced twice in this country but his record reads well with a win in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes and a sixth in the G1 Cox Plate.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Crackerjack King to lead as he did last start especially now he has drawn out wide. Side Glance could be up there too. Fawkner, Criterion and Dissident to be handy. So too Dear Demi from the good gate. Stablemates Sacred Falls and Foreteller in the second half of the field.
Dissident is hard to knock. His three runs this prep have all been at G1 level and he has won two and been narrowly beaten in the other when giving the winner 6kg. If there is a concern it is that his only attempt at 2000m was average (a six length sixth to Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas back in April) and his form when he gets deep into a preparation reads badly. Is he just a good fresh sprinter-miler? The jury is still out.
Fawkner looked every bit as good as Dissident in the above race and he was first-up so I expect him to take plenty of improvement from that run. Second-up record looks good on paper (5:3-1-0) but it's worth noting his last second-up effort was a two and a half length fifth in last year's G1 George Main Stakes. He's no stranger to the track having claimed last year's G1 Caulfield Cup here 51 weeks ago (below) and I think he'll be in the finish despite the fact that I think his Grand Final is still two weeks away at Moonee Valley.
Sacred Falls won the G1 George Main Stakes last start and that form is looking good now with Royal Descent (2nd) subsequently a narrow second in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Lucia Valentina (6th) victorious in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. He's had two starts at this distance for two G1 seconds behind It's A Dundeel, the most recent a fighting effort in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April (below). He's a three time G1 winner already and looks right on target for the G1 Cox Plate in a fortnight. Zac Purton flies in from Hong Kong to take the ride.
Foreteller looks to be over the odds for mine. He's a last start winner of the G1 Underwood Stakes and the form from that race has been franked with Lidari (4th) running a slashing second in last weekend's G1 Turnbull Stakes. That was his third win here at The Heath following previous victories in the G2 St George Stakes and G3 Coongy. He also ran second in this race last year to Atlantic Jewel. He can struggle to run on off a hot speed so it will all come down to how hard they go in front.
Happy Trails was on the heels of Foreteller in the G1 Underwood Stakes and he is backing up here after having no luck in last Saturday's G1 Turnbull Stakes. Take that run out and his last three attempts at 2000m have resulted in a narrow second to Shamus Award in last year's G1 Cox Plate, victory in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last year and a third to Reliable Man and It's A Dundeel in the 2013 G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. I liked him last week and I like him again here especially now that we are back to w-f-a from set weights plus penalties. The last time Damian Oliver rode this bloke they won the 2012 G1 Emirates Stakes (below).
Dear Demi was impressive winning the G2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley and I loved the way she attacked the line but that was her first win in 17 months and she is yet to win in open company. Criterion chased home Junoob last start and he's since won the G1 Metropolitan. Fourth-up last prep he strolled home in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. Crackerjack King is a winner of three from five at 2000m and I liked his effort last start in the G1 Underwood Stakes when he staved off everyone bar Foreteller and Happy Trails. Side Glance has only raced twice in this country but his record reads well with a win in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes and a sixth in the G1 Cox Plate.
Locky's Selections
1 Sacred Falls
4 Happy Trails
5 Foreteller
7 Crackerjack King
4 Happy Trails
5 Foreteller
7 Crackerjack King
Other bets
Sistine Demon (Caulfield Race 3 No. 3) doesn't go so well first and second-up but he has a great record three runs and further into a prep (11:7-1-1). He's five from six at the 1400m including two victories here at Caulfield. Looks well weighted with just 2.5kg over the minimum. Opened $4.50.
Overreach (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) has had two trials in preparation for this and won both by big margins. She hasn't been sighted since April last year but given her value as a broodmare I can't imagine she'd be here unless she was 100%. She's nominated for the G1 Manikato Stakes in a fortnight and the G1 Darley Classic two weeks later so they're setting the bar high but she is a G1 Golden Slipper winner (beating subsequent Black Type winners Sidestep, Sweet Idea and Guelph). Opened $4.00.
Bull Point (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6) was solid behind Trust In A Gust in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) and meets him two kilos better off here. He was the best of the run on horses so the step up to 1600m suits. The stable wins a lot of big mile races and rider Jimmy Cassidy has already claimed this race four times. Inside draw is a big plus. Opened $6.50.
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