Well I hope I go a bit better tomorrow than I did last week because I had an absolute Barry Crocker. I went like a busted on Guineas Day.
I'm not the only one having a bad time of it though because Caulfield Cup fancies have been dropping like flies this week. One more scratching and we won't even have a capacity field.
I'm not the only one having a bad time of it though because Caulfield Cup fancies have been dropping like flies this week. One more scratching and we won't even have a capacity field.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Kerrin McEvoy picks himself after a Black Type treble here last weekend. In the last six weeks he has claimed Spring features aboard Lucia Valentina (G1 Turnbull Stakes & G2 Tramway Stakes), Rubick (G2 Schillaci Stakes), Sweynesse (G3 Gloaming Stakes & G3 Spring Stakes), Earthquake (G3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes), Abduction (Listed Reginald Allen Quality) and Hosting (Listed Weekend Hussler Stakes).
Tomorrow at Caulfield he has some plum rides including Kumaon (Race 4 No. 1), Generalife (Race 5 No. 8) and Caulfield Cup favourite Lucia Valentina (Race 9 No. 16).
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)
Current market
*** Dandino, Bande, Dear Demi and Gris Caro are early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Brambles or Lidari : 25 of the last 30 winners have carried 55kg or less including nine of the last 11. Eight of the last nine winners returned between $8.50 and $17. Four of the last five winners came through the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Only two mares have been successful in the last 17 years.
"The Speed Map" says - Those with early speed and good barriers will want to take advantage of that fact so I see Seismos, Lidari and Green Moon going forward. Sea Moon, Big Memory and Junoob will probably press on too from their wide draws in an effort to get in close to the fence. Brambles up there too. Should be a good tempo.
Lucia Valentina is coming off a strong win in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) where she came from well back in a race dominated by the on-pace brigade. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in good touch (see the "Who's hot?" segment above) and her breeding and her run in the G1 ATC Oaks last Autumn give every indication she will eat up the mile and a half.
Lidari meets Lucia Valentina 1.5kg better than when he just failed to hold her off a fortnight ago in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (above). He's a two time winner at the trip (although not in Australia) and he's had a top level w-f-a prep and now gets into a handicap with a featherweight. The good barrier should have him handily placed in the race.
Brambles only got into the field this morning with the late withdrawal of the Japanese raider Bande due to a tendon problem. Like his stablemate above he was close-up in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and gets a pull in the weights from the winner Lucia Valentina. He claimed the G1 Queensland Derby at this trip in June of 2012 then spent almost two years on the sidelines due to injury. His form this prep has been solid including a victory two starts back (with 60kg!) beating Big Memory and Signoff who finished one-two in last Saturday's G2 Herbert Power Quality.
Admire Rakti has to carry a stack of weight but his run from well back in the field to claim fourth in last year's G1 Japan Cup (below) finishing just ahead of G1 Caulfield/Melbourne Cups winner Dunaden indicates he's not out of place here. I must admit though I don't know a lot about him.
Junoob is the best fancied of trainer Chris Waller's four-pronged attack on this race thanks to his win in the G1 Metropolitan (below) at Randwick two weeks ago. That was a big effort under 58kg especially after getting flushed out way too soon. He still managed to hold on despite being a sitting shot and his previous run saw him defeat Criterion who went really well here last Saturday when a narrow second to Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Stakes.
Who Shot Thebarman is a horse I like from a G1 Melbourne Cup point of view because he looks like a dour staying type who will run all day. I just wonder if he has the dash to win this because he took a day and a half to get to the lead last start. He'll be running on late and the stable can't be faulted.
Rising Romance gets in with no weight here and she did beat Lucia Valentina the last time they met over 2400m in last April's G1 ATC Oaks (below). All three runs this prep have been sound and she returns to a handicap here after w-f-a form. She has to contend with an awkward barrier but has in-form hoop James McDonald to off-set that.
Hawkspur ran favourite in this race last year (below) and finished an unlucky seventh after getting too far back and copping interference. Rider Damien Oliver has won this race four times but not once since the turn of the century. I just don't think he is in as good form this year but a bold showing wouldn't be a total shock.
The rest are $21+ but the best of them appear to be The Offer who is finally getting up to a trip that suits but he will need a bit of give in the ground because he felt his legs last time out on the firm Flemington track but he was still OK in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Big Memory scraped into the field with victory in last weekend's G2 Herbert Power Quality. I just query the strength of that form and he'll also need to improve his racing manners because he wobbled round the bend at Caulfield like a stoned unicyclist. Stipulate ticks a lot of boxes in terms of weight/form and David Hayes and Dwayne Dunn combined to win this race in 2006 with Tawqeet. His G1 Turnbull Stakes run was good when he came from well back. I think that is the best form race.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Those with early speed and good barriers will want to take advantage of that fact so I see Seismos, Lidari and Green Moon going forward. Sea Moon, Big Memory and Junoob will probably press on too from their wide draws in an effort to get in close to the fence. Brambles up there too. Should be a good tempo.
Lucia Valentina is coming off a strong win in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) where she came from well back in a race dominated by the on-pace brigade. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in good touch (see the "Who's hot?" segment above) and her breeding and her run in the G1 ATC Oaks last Autumn give every indication she will eat up the mile and a half.
Lidari meets Lucia Valentina 1.5kg better than when he just failed to hold her off a fortnight ago in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (above). He's a two time winner at the trip (although not in Australia) and he's had a top level w-f-a prep and now gets into a handicap with a featherweight. The good barrier should have him handily placed in the race.
Brambles only got into the field this morning with the late withdrawal of the Japanese raider Bande due to a tendon problem. Like his stablemate above he was close-up in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and gets a pull in the weights from the winner Lucia Valentina. He claimed the G1 Queensland Derby at this trip in June of 2012 then spent almost two years on the sidelines due to injury. His form this prep has been solid including a victory two starts back (with 60kg!) beating Big Memory and Signoff who finished one-two in last Saturday's G2 Herbert Power Quality.
Admire Rakti has to carry a stack of weight but his run from well back in the field to claim fourth in last year's G1 Japan Cup (below) finishing just ahead of G1 Caulfield/Melbourne Cups winner Dunaden indicates he's not out of place here. I must admit though I don't know a lot about him.
Who Shot Thebarman is a horse I like from a G1 Melbourne Cup point of view because he looks like a dour staying type who will run all day. I just wonder if he has the dash to win this because he took a day and a half to get to the lead last start. He'll be running on late and the stable can't be faulted.
Hawkspur ran favourite in this race last year (below) and finished an unlucky seventh after getting too far back and copping interference. Rider Damien Oliver has won this race four times but not once since the turn of the century. I just don't think he is in as good form this year but a bold showing wouldn't be a total shock.
The rest are $21+ but the best of them appear to be The Offer who is finally getting up to a trip that suits but he will need a bit of give in the ground because he felt his legs last time out on the firm Flemington track but he was still OK in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Big Memory scraped into the field with victory in last weekend's G2 Herbert Power Quality. I just query the strength of that form and he'll also need to improve his racing manners because he wobbled round the bend at Caulfield like a stoned unicyclist. Stipulate ticks a lot of boxes in terms of weight/form and David Hayes and Dwayne Dunn combined to win this race in 2006 with Tawqeet. His G1 Turnbull Stakes run was good when he came from well back. I think that is the best form race.
Locky's Selections
14 Lidari
15 Lucia Valentina
13 Stipulate
19 Brambles
Sweet Idea (Caulfield Race 6 No. 3) won the G2 Missile Stakes fresh, then beat all bar the flying Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes before a two length fourth in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start when she chased home Trust In A Gust who has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Back to her own sex here and well weighted considering I think she'll give a good sight for a long way. Opened $3.80.
Anatina (Caulfield Race 10 No. 3) went pretty close to claiming the G1 Galaxy second-up last prep and her run when resuming was full of merit when she took on the boys and was just run down late by the highly talented Fast 'n' Rocking when conceding him two kilos. Back to fillies and mares grade suits and the set weights plus penalties conditions see her well in at the weights. Opened $2.50.
15 Lucia Valentina
13 Stipulate
19 Brambles
Other bets
Sweet Idea (Caulfield Race 6 No. 3) won the G2 Missile Stakes fresh, then beat all bar the flying Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes before a two length fourth in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start when she chased home Trust In A Gust who has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Back to her own sex here and well weighted considering I think she'll give a good sight for a long way. Opened $3.80.
Anatina (Caulfield Race 10 No. 3) went pretty close to claiming the G1 Galaxy second-up last prep and her run when resuming was full of merit when she took on the boys and was just run down late by the highly talented Fast 'n' Rocking when conceding him two kilos. Back to fillies and mares grade suits and the set weights plus penalties conditions see her well in at the weights. Opened $2.50.
Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!
No comments:
Post a Comment