This is one of my favourite days of the racing year. 18 Black Type races spread over two states and more than $3.8M in prizemoney up for grabs.
There are four Group 1's but I'll be focusing on the two $500K races in the Epsom Handicap (Randwick) and the Turnbull Stakes (Flemington).
There will still be plenty of other bets because with some good horses and races available I just know I won't be able to help myself.
The good news is the radar is pretty close at the moment because last week I tipped the First Four in Moir Stakes, two of the first three in the Rupert Clarke Stakes, the "Who's hot" segment steered you into Rob Heathcote (Buffering) and "The Scriptures" gave Trust In A Gust a wrap.
There are four Group 1's but I'll be focusing on the two $500K races in the Epsom Handicap (Randwick) and the Turnbull Stakes (Flemington).
There will still be plenty of other bets because with some good horses and races available I just know I won't be able to help myself.
The good news is the radar is pretty close at the moment because last week I tipped the First Four in Moir Stakes, two of the first three in the Rupert Clarke Stakes, the "Who's hot" segment steered you into Rob Heathcote (Buffering) and "The Scriptures" gave Trust In A Gust a wrap.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Hugh Bowman has ridden seven winners in the last three weeks from just 28 rides at a strike rate of 25%. This Spring he has already claimed feature race wins aboard Hallowed Crown, Winx, Terravista, Catkins and He's Your Man.
He has some quality mounts at Randwick tomorrow including Hallowed Crown (Race 4 No. 1), Royal Descent (Race 7 No. 2), Winx (Race 84 No. 1) and Bagman (Race 9 No. 2).
Randwick
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Pheidon : 21 of the last 30 winners were 4-y-o's including nine of the last 11 and the last five in a row. Only four horses in the last 15 runnings have carried more than 54kg to win with the last being Racing To Win (57kg) in 2006. 12 of the last 18 winners drew a single digit barrier. Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times including six of the last 11.
"The Speed Map" says - Star Rolling is best when ridden forward and he'll want to take advantage of his good draw. Pheidon is in similar situation and being a Waterhouse trained horse you'd think Gai would want him near the lead. Hooked went straight to the front last start as did Laser Hawk and being drawn out they'll both probably press forward. Jetset Lad and Liberty's Choice can be handy too. Not sure where they go on Royal Descent from out there. Last two starts she's been ridden on pace but she went back and swooped when second in the G1 Doncaster back in April.
Royal Descent as just mentioned ran second at this course and distance in the G1 Doncaster Mile (below). The problem is she's making a habit of that. She hasn't won in her last 12 starts stretching back 17 months although she has registered six seconds in quality company. Secret Admirer (2011) is the only mare to have won this race in the last 30 years but she carried just 52.5kg. She is however the class horse of the race and that will take her a long way.
He's Your Man has not missed a place in six starts at distances up to 1800m since coming to Australia. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but I believe it takes a good ten furlong horse to run out a strong Randwick mile so that is of no concern. The stable does make a habit of winning these big Sydney mile races too - think Sacred Falls, Boban, Rangirangdoo, Triple Honour, Hawkspur, Danleigh, Shoot Out.
Toydini has won just two races from his last 13 starts since claiming the G3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) at Randwick during the Autumn Carnival of 2013. Granted he has been competing at the highest level but he has to do that again tomorrow, with a good horses weight and he did look plain last time out when a well beaten eighth in the G1 George Main Stakes.
Boban is to racing what Marat Safin was to tennis. He has all the ability in the world but he is an absolute basket case. On his day he is capable of doing extraordinary things, just as he did when winning this very race (below) just 12 months ago. The problem is catching him on his day. He has to contend with a massive weight too. Only the mighty Super Impose has carried more to victory in the last 30 years (58.5kg in 1990 and 61kg in 1991).
Of the rest Laser Hawk is getting back to somewhere near his best and gets a four kilo swing on Royal Descent and he was only half a length behind her in the G1 George Main Stakes - a race which has produced 15 of the last 30 winners. Liberty's Choice is a lightly weighted 4-y-o on the way up and he chased home Rock Sturdy last start and he would have started close to favourite here so he has some hope. Ninth Legion comes through the same race and meets both horses better at the weights and he boasts form around Cluster and Bull Point who were competitive in last Sunday's G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Hooked fits the age/weight profile and comes off a win in the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle but he got a soft lead that day and sprinted home. I doubt he'll be able to do that tomorrow. Star Rolling was the subject of some early speculation with the bookies ($15 into $11). He won't know himself with just 53kg and with his good early speed, ability to race on the pace and an inside draw he will be in it for a long way.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Star Rolling is best when ridden forward and he'll want to take advantage of his good draw. Pheidon is in similar situation and being a Waterhouse trained horse you'd think Gai would want him near the lead. Hooked went straight to the front last start as did Laser Hawk and being drawn out they'll both probably press forward. Jetset Lad and Liberty's Choice can be handy too. Not sure where they go on Royal Descent from out there. Last two starts she's been ridden on pace but she went back and swooped when second in the G1 Doncaster back in April.
Royal Descent as just mentioned ran second at this course and distance in the G1 Doncaster Mile (below). The problem is she's making a habit of that. She hasn't won in her last 12 starts stretching back 17 months although she has registered six seconds in quality company. Secret Admirer (2011) is the only mare to have won this race in the last 30 years but she carried just 52.5kg. She is however the class horse of the race and that will take her a long way.
He's Your Man has not missed a place in six starts at distances up to 1800m since coming to Australia. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but I believe it takes a good ten furlong horse to run out a strong Randwick mile so that is of no concern. The stable does make a habit of winning these big Sydney mile races too - think Sacred Falls, Boban, Rangirangdoo, Triple Honour, Hawkspur, Danleigh, Shoot Out.
Toydini has won just two races from his last 13 starts since claiming the G3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) at Randwick during the Autumn Carnival of 2013. Granted he has been competing at the highest level but he has to do that again tomorrow, with a good horses weight and he did look plain last time out when a well beaten eighth in the G1 George Main Stakes.
Boban is to racing what Marat Safin was to tennis. He has all the ability in the world but he is an absolute basket case. On his day he is capable of doing extraordinary things, just as he did when winning this very race (below) just 12 months ago. The problem is catching him on his day. He has to contend with a massive weight too. Only the mighty Super Impose has carried more to victory in the last 30 years (58.5kg in 1990 and 61kg in 1991).
Of the rest Laser Hawk is getting back to somewhere near his best and gets a four kilo swing on Royal Descent and he was only half a length behind her in the G1 George Main Stakes - a race which has produced 15 of the last 30 winners. Liberty's Choice is a lightly weighted 4-y-o on the way up and he chased home Rock Sturdy last start and he would have started close to favourite here so he has some hope. Ninth Legion comes through the same race and meets both horses better at the weights and he boasts form around Cluster and Bull Point who were competitive in last Sunday's G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Hooked fits the age/weight profile and comes off a win in the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle but he got a soft lead that day and sprinted home. I doubt he'll be able to do that tomorrow. Star Rolling was the subject of some early speculation with the bookies ($15 into $11). He won't know himself with just 53kg and with his good early speed, ability to race on the pace and an inside draw he will be in it for a long way.
Locky's Selections
4 Laser Hawk
2 Royal Descent
9 Ninth Legion
6 He's Your Man
Current market
*** Sertorius and Crackerjack King are early scratchings ***
Brazen Beau (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) chased home Rich Enuff, Looks Like The Cat and Awesome Rock last start and gave them weight too. That trio subsequently ran the trifecta in the G3 Guineas Prelude. He showed ability during the Brisbane Winter Carnival claiming the G2 Champagne Classic before placing in the G2 Sires Produce and G1 J.J. Atkins. I like the fact that he stays at the 1200m too whereas a couple of his rivals are dropping back from the 1400m. Opened $4.00.
Famous Seamus (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) is well placed here under the w-f-a scale and he caught the eye first-up when he flashed home from last to grab third behind the much hyped Terravista in the G2 The Shorts. That was a day you needed to be near the fence and on the pace due to track bias and he came from last and made his run down the inferior ground out wide. Stepping up from 1100m to 1200m can only help and he was a G1 winner during the Brisbane Winter Carnival (below). Opened $2.90.
2 Royal Descent
9 Ninth Legion
6 He's Your Man
Flemington
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***
Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)
Current market
*** Sertorius and Crackerjack King are early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Hawkspur or The Offer : In the past 25 years only five horses have carried less than 55.5kg. Only four mares (Let's Elope, Sunline, Makybe Diva and Devil Moon) have saluted in that period. 13 of the last 20 favourites have been beaten. Since 2000 seven winners have paid between $9 - $26.
"The Speed Map" says - Gris Caro and Brambles handy from good draws. Green Moon sat second in the G1 Australian Cup here second-up last prep. Puissance De Lune will want to take advantage of barrier two. They have a long run to the first bend to sort themselves out.
Lucia Valentina announced her presence in this country last Autumn with a win in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill in April (below). She resumed from a spell four weeks ago and made the transition to open company with an impressive length and half win in the G2 Tramway defeating the likes of Tiger Tees and Toydini. Wasn't far away at w-f-a last start in the G1 George Main Stakes and she looks well placed here with just the 53.5kg.
Puissance De Lune looks like a horse crying out for 2000m and he should get all the favours tomorrow from his inside barrier. He loves it here at Flemington with wins in the G2 Blamey Stakes and G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and placings at his other three attempts in the last two G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (behind the likes of Dissident and Foreteller) and this race last year when he hit the front too soon and was ambushed by Happy Trails. A live winning hope.
Silent Achiever has just one win in Melbourne to her name and that was at her first attempt in the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley almost two years ago. She has not run a place in seven subsequent Melbourne runs. She'll have her admirers and on her Sydney Autumn Carnival form she's good enough to win but I can't step into her especially after her plain run last start.
Happy Trails won this race last year (below) before finishing a narrow second in the G1 Cox Plate and he showed he's back to his best with an unlucky second to Foreteller in the G1 Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago. In fact I think if you reversed the runs in transit Happy Trails wins the race. He's had exactly the same prep this year (Spring Stakes/Memsie Stakes/Underwood Stakes) and is travelling better so the extra 1.5kg shouldn't be a problem.
Stipulate gets into the field now that stablemate Crackerjack King has been scratched. His first-up win was super and as a result he was well tried in the G1 Underwood Stakes but couldn't really get into the race because of the muddling tempo and his racing pattern of getting back and running on. If he gets a good tempo tomorrow he could be a player.
Hawkspur was a desperately unlucky fifth in this race last year (see replay above) when beaten half a length off a similar prep. He gives every impression he's looking for the 2000m now and he's been scratched from a much more winnable race in Sydney to take on the big guns here. The stable is obviously confident and who can blame them because they are winning practically everything at the moment.
Of the rest Green Moon saves his best form for Flemington with wins in the G1 Melbourne Cup, G2 Blamey Stakes and this race two years ago plus he was also a narrow second to Fiorente in the G1 Australian Cup last March. First-up run was good off a slow tempo when he came from last to be only three lengths off the in-form Dissident. Super Cool ran well in the G1 Underwood, he's been getting closer every run this time in and he's finally getting to a trip that suits. The Offer is another in that category. He's on a Cups path so he has bigger fish to fry down the track but expect him to be finishing powerfully.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Gris Caro and Brambles handy from good draws. Green Moon sat second in the G1 Australian Cup here second-up last prep. Puissance De Lune will want to take advantage of barrier two. They have a long run to the first bend to sort themselves out.
Lucia Valentina announced her presence in this country last Autumn with a win in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill in April (below). She resumed from a spell four weeks ago and made the transition to open company with an impressive length and half win in the G2 Tramway defeating the likes of Tiger Tees and Toydini. Wasn't far away at w-f-a last start in the G1 George Main Stakes and she looks well placed here with just the 53.5kg.
Puissance De Lune looks like a horse crying out for 2000m and he should get all the favours tomorrow from his inside barrier. He loves it here at Flemington with wins in the G2 Blamey Stakes and G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and placings at his other three attempts in the last two G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (behind the likes of Dissident and Foreteller) and this race last year when he hit the front too soon and was ambushed by Happy Trails. A live winning hope.
Silent Achiever has just one win in Melbourne to her name and that was at her first attempt in the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley almost two years ago. She has not run a place in seven subsequent Melbourne runs. She'll have her admirers and on her Sydney Autumn Carnival form she's good enough to win but I can't step into her especially after her plain run last start.
Stipulate gets into the field now that stablemate Crackerjack King has been scratched. His first-up win was super and as a result he was well tried in the G1 Underwood Stakes but couldn't really get into the race because of the muddling tempo and his racing pattern of getting back and running on. If he gets a good tempo tomorrow he could be a player.
Hawkspur was a desperately unlucky fifth in this race last year (see replay above) when beaten half a length off a similar prep. He gives every impression he's looking for the 2000m now and he's been scratched from a much more winnable race in Sydney to take on the big guns here. The stable is obviously confident and who can blame them because they are winning practically everything at the moment.
Of the rest Green Moon saves his best form for Flemington with wins in the G1 Melbourne Cup, G2 Blamey Stakes and this race two years ago plus he was also a narrow second to Fiorente in the G1 Australian Cup last March. First-up run was good off a slow tempo when he came from last to be only three lengths off the in-form Dissident. Super Cool ran well in the G1 Underwood, he's been getting closer every run this time in and he's finally getting to a trip that suits. The Offer is another in that category. He's on a Cups path so he has bigger fish to fry down the track but expect him to be finishing powerfully.
Locky's Selections
2 Happy Trails
4 Hawkspur
8 Puissance De Lune
1 Green Moon
4 Hawkspur
8 Puissance De Lune
1 Green Moon
Other bets
Brazen Beau (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) chased home Rich Enuff, Looks Like The Cat and Awesome Rock last start and gave them weight too. That trio subsequently ran the trifecta in the G3 Guineas Prelude. He showed ability during the Brisbane Winter Carnival claiming the G2 Champagne Classic before placing in the G2 Sires Produce and G1 J.J. Atkins. I like the fact that he stays at the 1200m too whereas a couple of his rivals are dropping back from the 1400m. Opened $4.00.
Famous Seamus (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) is well placed here under the w-f-a scale and he caught the eye first-up when he flashed home from last to grab third behind the much hyped Terravista in the G2 The Shorts. That was a day you needed to be near the fence and on the pace due to track bias and he came from last and made his run down the inferior ground out wide. Stepping up from 1100m to 1200m can only help and he was a G1 winner during the Brisbane Winter Carnival (below). Opened $2.90.
Spillway (Randwick Race 9 No. 3) has strong form leading into this with good runs over unsuitable trips in the G2 Lawrence Stakes (1400m) and the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) where he finished on the heels of Dissident, Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. Forget his last start flop in the G3 Naturalism Stakes because he had nothing but bad luck in the run. The stable is training plenty of winners and his last win was here at Randwick in April when he spanked his rivals by two and a half lengths in the G3 JRA Plate (2000m) on All Aged Stakes Day. Opened $4.80.
Temple of Boom (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) is now an 8-y-o but he is racing in fine fettle. His win at Eagle Farm in the G2 Victory Stakes in April was his first win since claiming the G1 Galaxy two years prior but he followed that with three great runs - a fourth in the G1 BTC Cup and narrow seconds in the G1 Doomben 10,000 and G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below). He's won three races down the Flemington straight and placed four more times from 12 attempts and he meets Chautauqua 6kg better off for his last start defeat. Opened $4.20.
Maastricht (Flemington Race 6 No. 9) has been crunched in the betting ($5.50 to $3.00) following the news that the Peter Moody trained filly Thinking Of You will miss this race and head to Sydney for the G1 Flight Stakes. It's a shame because I think this girl could have beaten her anyway and we would have gotten a better price. She's unbeaten in two career starts (albeit in much weaker grade) but she has been impressive both times. The stable is in good nick and the jockey is leading the Victorian premiership after a great start to the season. Opened $5.50.
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