Some good winners tipped on Saturday with Bonaria ($33.50/$8.10) claiming the G1 Myer Stakes and Preferment ($8.50/$2.20) winning the G1 Victoria Derby. I also had the Derby quinella ($32.30) and the G1 Mackinnon quinella ($22.40) among my top four selections and just missed the Mackinnon trifecta with Spillway finishing fourth.
At least I am finding some form at the right time.
At least I am finding some form at the right time.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Damien Oliver had a good day on Saturday with two winners and four placegetters from eight rides. He's now won the G1 Victoria Derby and the G1 Mackinnon Satkes five times and he's won the G1 Melbourne Cup and the G1 Oaks three times apiece. I think it's fair to say he thrives here during the Spring Carnival.
Tomorrow at Flemington he has several good chances including Law (Race 5 No. 1), Fitna (Race 6 No. 13), Mutual Regard (Race 7 No. 11) and Jazz Song (Race 9 No. 18).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the small possibility of a shower. ***
Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)
Current market
*** Sea Moon is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Protectionist: 29 of the last 30 winners carried 56.5kg or less. Only one winner in the last 25 years has paid more than $21. 12 of the last 15 winners had finished top four at their previous start. The last 20 winners had their previous start in Australia. The race has only been won by a mare seven times in the last 50 years - and three of those were Makybe Diva.
"The Speed Map" says - I have given up trying to guess what they are going to do in this race. Every year I have a speed map worked out and fifty metres after the start it has gone out the window.
Protectionist for me here. He profiles well being an international who has had a prior run in this country. He's not badly weighted and he has a 3000m win in Europe on severely affected ground so he should stay the trip. Jockey Ryan Moore is on a high after claiming the G1 Cox Plate aboard Adelaide and his fast closing fourth under 59kg in the G2 Herbert Power caught the eye.
Admire Ratki the next best. He was breathtaking in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) and the stable has always said he would be better suited at 3200m than 2400m. He's a winner up to 3400m in Japan and he handles firm tracks. Only four horses have carried 58.5kg or more to win in the last 60 years but having said that the spread in the weights these days isn't as big.
Red Cadeaux seems to thrive in Australia. This will be his fourth start in the race and he has finished second twice before including an agonising photo finish loss to Dunaden (below) in 2011. He's also been placed in Japan's big G1 two mile race the Tenno Sho as well as the G1 Dubai World Cup and he's won a G1 Hong Kong Vase. He's a seasoned traveller and I think he represents great value for exotics at $21+.
Mutual Regard has had five runs at this distance for two wins and two seconds and his last start win in the Ebor Handicap was impressive. That race did produce 2007 Cup placegetter Purple Moon. In form hoop Damien Oliver to ride.
That's my Top Four but I could make a case for quite a few more. Lucia Valentina was the best closer outside Admire Ratki in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Signoff was impressive on the weekend in claiming the G3 Lexus and has no weight. Fawkner has had a similar preparation to last year's winner Fiorente and he was brave in the G1 Cox Plate when he had to cart the rest of the field up to The Cleaner. Who Shot Thebarman and Araldo look like they will stay all day. I think Junoob will be better suited by the big track at Flemington and G1 Sydney Cup placegetter Opinion will run out a strong 3200m. As always a tough race.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - I have given up trying to guess what they are going to do in this race. Every year I have a speed map worked out and fifty metres after the start it has gone out the window.
Protectionist for me here. He profiles well being an international who has had a prior run in this country. He's not badly weighted and he has a 3000m win in Europe on severely affected ground so he should stay the trip. Jockey Ryan Moore is on a high after claiming the G1 Cox Plate aboard Adelaide and his fast closing fourth under 59kg in the G2 Herbert Power caught the eye.
Admire Ratki the next best. He was breathtaking in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) and the stable has always said he would be better suited at 3200m than 2400m. He's a winner up to 3400m in Japan and he handles firm tracks. Only four horses have carried 58.5kg or more to win in the last 60 years but having said that the spread in the weights these days isn't as big.
Red Cadeaux seems to thrive in Australia. This will be his fourth start in the race and he has finished second twice before including an agonising photo finish loss to Dunaden (below) in 2011. He's also been placed in Japan's big G1 two mile race the Tenno Sho as well as the G1 Dubai World Cup and he's won a G1 Hong Kong Vase. He's a seasoned traveller and I think he represents great value for exotics at $21+.
Mutual Regard has had five runs at this distance for two wins and two seconds and his last start win in the Ebor Handicap was impressive. That race did produce 2007 Cup placegetter Purple Moon. In form hoop Damien Oliver to ride.
That's my Top Four but I could make a case for quite a few more. Lucia Valentina was the best closer outside Admire Ratki in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Signoff was impressive on the weekend in claiming the G3 Lexus and has no weight. Fawkner has had a similar preparation to last year's winner Fiorente and he was brave in the G1 Cox Plate when he had to cart the rest of the field up to The Cleaner. Who Shot Thebarman and Araldo look like they will stay all day. I think Junoob will be better suited by the big track at Flemington and G1 Sydney Cup placegetter Opinion will run out a strong 3200m. As always a tough race.
Locky's Selections
5 Protectionist
1 Admire Ratki
4 Red Cadeaux
11 Mutual Regard
1 Admire Ratki
4 Red Cadeaux
11 Mutual Regard
Other bets
Khutulun (Flemington Race 2 No. 7) has won four from nine with two placings and you could make an argument she should have won two starts back as well when she suffered bad luck in running. Her first five career runs obviously showed the stable enough to warrant a crack at last season's G1 Queensland Oaks and apart from that blemish all her other runs have been good. Opened $16 but that has disappeared. Now $9.
Fitna (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) demolished an average field last start but did it pretty easily. Prior to that she chased home G1 Victoria Derby aspirant Magicool at Seymour. The step up to 1400m looks ideal because she is a daughter of G1 winning miler Carry On Cutie. $10.
Stipulate (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) was brilliant first-up in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap before solid runs in the G1 Underwood Stakes (two and a half lengths off Foreteller and Happy Trails) and the G1 Turnbull Stakes (three and a half length fifth to Lucia Valentina). He didn't see a lot of daylight in the G1 Caulfield Cup so I'm overlooking that run. $8.
Fitna (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) demolished an average field last start but did it pretty easily. Prior to that she chased home G1 Victoria Derby aspirant Magicool at Seymour. The step up to 1400m looks ideal because she is a daughter of G1 winning miler Carry On Cutie. $10.
Stipulate (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) was brilliant first-up in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap before solid runs in the G1 Underwood Stakes (two and a half lengths off Foreteller and Happy Trails) and the G1 Turnbull Stakes (three and a half length fifth to Lucia Valentina). He didn't see a lot of daylight in the G1 Caulfield Cup so I'm overlooking that run. $8.
Iconic (Flemington Race 9 No. 4) wasn't far away in that busy finish in the G1 Manikato Stakes two weeks ago. At his previous appearance he was on the heels of Rubick, Platelet and Overreach in the G2 Schillaci Stakes. His only appearance here at Flemington was during this week last year when he finished second in a race down the straight. Well weighted and well backed in early markets. $8.
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