Queensland Oaks Day 2015

The G1 Queensland Oaks and it is being run at Doomben. It makes for an interesting race with the distance reduced from 2400m to 2200m, a capacity field on a much smaller, tighter track (and the rail is out five metres too) plus the fact the traditional lead-up the G2 Doomben Roses was run a week rather than a fortnight before the feature.

The eleventh hour scratching of the highly fancied Bohemian Lily only adds to the intrigue.

Who's hot?

Chris Waller's double at Doomben last weekend gives him six individual Black Type winners for the Winter Carnival so far. Three of them go around at Doomben again tomorrow amongst a host of other runners.

His best chances appear to be Champagne Cath (Race 6 No. 3) and Oaks aspirants Winx (Race 7 No. 2) and Ballet Suite (Race 7 No. 4). He also appears to have a mortgage on Race 4 with five of the seven runners.

Doomben

*** As of 11.30am this morning the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Bohemian Lily is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Ballet Suite: 15 of the last 20 winners returned $9 or less for the win and yet only four of them started favourite. Nine of the last 10 winners came off a run at Doomben.

"The Speed Map" says - No Bohemian Lily so where is the speed? Rustic Melody tries to cross and probably does so without much bother. Col 'n' Lil will kick up to take advantage of the good draw. Perhaps Exquisite Jewel does the same. Ditto Ungrateful Ellen and Whatalovelyday. Pretty much everything else gets back and runs on. This could be a sit-and-sprint affair.

Winx breezed to victory last start in the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas. It was a slashing win given she was five weeks between runs and dropping back to the mile from the 2400m of the G1 ATC Oaks (below) when she was a closing second. It's an unorthodox Oaks preparation but with the race run at Doomben this year and over the 2200m it could be the ideal lead-up. Especially given this year's G2 Doomben Roses was run a week before instead of the usual fortnight and all those fillies are on a seven day back-up.

Ballet Suite was alongside Winx in the run (above) in the G1 ATC Oaks but had no match for her turn of foot and finished down the track some 15 lengths behind the winner. She did bounce back next start when returning to the 2000m of the Listed Princess Stakes where she simply outstayed Bohemian Lily. The bad news is she will have to do it from the extreme outside barrier and given her usual pattern of racing that will probably see her in the back half of a large field.

Sebrina was nominated for the G2 Doomben Roses last Saturday but trainer Bjorn Baker elected to stay in Sydney and he's probably wishing he hadn't. Let's just say it's a good thing she had bad luck because otherwise she would have had no luck at all. She's drawn to get a better run here (she'll start from barrier five when the rest of the emergencies come out) and if the gaps come when she needs them to (fingers crossed!) she gives every impression she will run out a strong staying trip.

Ungrateful Ellen has put in two big runs at her last two outings. She had a torrid run last time out in the G3 SA Classic when she got caught wide yet she held on for third at the end of a gritty 2500m and prior to that she stormed home from last for fifth in the G1 SA Oaks. A better barrier this week helps too because her last three starts she's jumped from gate 10 in a field of 11, gate 13 of 16 and gate 14 of 14. The stable has had seven winners in the last two weeks including a two-state treble last weekend.

The rest are likely to start $12+ but there are quite a few I could entertain in wider exotics. Rustic Melody has a poor draw but she wasn't far behind Winx in the G1 ATC Oaks before chasing home a subsequent winner in High Midnight last weekend when dropping back to 1900m. Zarzali came from last to be on the heels of Ballet Suite and Bohemian Lily in the Listed Princess Stakes. She's a winner up to 2400m so the step-up in distance this start appeals. Platinum Witness finished second in the G1 NZ Oaks then had eight weeks off. It might pay to forgive her last run because she was second-up and straight from 1400m to 2000m. She did manage to run past a few in a leader dominated race. Exquisite Jewel also closed well in the same event and should get a good run in transit from the inside draw. Col 'n' Lil has been a model of consistency this prep and has been in the money behind the likes of Bohemian Lily and Ballet Suite at her last three starts. Drawn well and will race handy. Yulong Baby was the best closer behind Bohemian Lily in the G2 Doomben Roses in a race where the first three over the line were the first three in the run. Terrible barrier though.

Locky's Selections

2 Winx
5 Rustic Melody
13 Ungrateful Ellen
11 Sebrina

Best Bets

Kuro (Doomben Race 5 No. 3) won four from five last prep with his only "miss" a great third (below) behind Brazen Beau in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. This prep has been pretty good too - he was a close-up third in the Listed Fireball when resuming, then beat all bar Sweet Idea in the G1 Galaxy and last start at this track and distance he claimed the Listed Mick Dittman Plate. The improving track helps too because all his bad runs have been in the wet but he's never missed a place on a good track (7:4-1-2). 

Bonete (Doomben Race 6 No. 15) is a former Kiwi who's now had four starts for the Joe Pride stable and hasn't missed a top four finish. Two starts back she beat Najoom and that form is looking pretty hot now. The engagement of Craig Williams is significant and she'll appreciate seeing a dry track for the first time in two months. She races close to the speed and from the good barrier she will be in it for a long way. 

Digitalism (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 7) is a bit of a track specialist with two wins from two starts at the Moonee Valley mile with his only other appearance here resulting in a second placing. Apprentice jockey Michael Dee has claimed a winner at each of the last three Saturday metro meetings - Sonntag, Red Bomber and More Radiant.

Great Esteem (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has won his last two third-up appearances and he looks ready to win after two runs back. Overlook his fresh run when he was trapped wide and go on his last start run at Scone which was better than it looks on paper. He was nominated for Brisbane but Team Snowden have elected to contest this easier race and with the 2kg claim for Winona Costin he looks well weighted. 

Well Backed

Comaneci (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) is a regally bred daughter of High Chapparal (So You Think, It's A Dundeel, Contributer etc.) out of Circles of Gold (Elvstroem, Haradasun) who opened at $15 but was quickly backed into $8.50. The wide draw is a concern but with the light weight and her good gate speed she should be able to find a good spot in the run form the 1600m start here.

Roughie

Go De Orpen (Moonee Valley Race 5 No. 15) has only won twice from ten career starts but both were first-up and both were at 1000m. He's $51 into $21 in early markets so there is obviously some confidence to say he can run a bit of a race. The light weight and inside barrier are a big plus and he does handle the sting out of the ground.

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Doomben 10,000 Day 2015

All nine races at Doomben tomorrow are Black Type with the feature being the G1 Doomben 10,000 and they're betting $5.50 the field so if you're keen on something it's a good day to be having a flutter!

We'll also see the Oaks hopefuls stepping out in the G2 Doomben Roses for the 3-y-o fillies. Unfortunately the race has lost some of its gloss already with the early scratchings of pre-post favourite Ballet Suite and the well-fancied Sebrina.

16mm of rain fell on the circuit during the week but fortunately only 1mm has fallen since Monday. A strong westerly and a sunny day today means we should be racing on a slow but improving surface.

Who's hot?

Team Snowden has had seven winners from 27 runners in the last three weeks including stakes winners Flippant, That's A Good Idea, Hot Snitzel, Charlie Boy, I've Got The Looks and Miracles of Life. In all they've won 12 Black Type races in the last three months including four G1's.

They haves three runners at Doomben tomorrow - I've Got The Looks (Race 2 No. 2), Lucky Lago (Race 4 No. 11) and Charlie Boy (Race 8 No. 9) - plus interstate runners in Sabor A Triunfo (Flemington Race 7 No. 8) and Fastnet Isle (Newcastle Race 6 No. 7).

Doomben

*** As of 3pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***

Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1350m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Our Boy Malachi: This race changed to w-f-a conditions in 1997 and in 18 runnings since only four winners have returned more than $8.50 for the win. 11 came via the (now) G1 BTC Cup but only three completed the double. 13 were 4-y-o or older and 15 were male. 13 finished in the top three at their previous run. 

"The Speed Map" says - There doesn't appear to be a stack of early speed here so Our Boy Malachi and Time For War should get across from their wide gates without too much trouble. First emergency Nite Rocker will be up there too if he scrapes into the field. Expect Rock Sturdy and Srikandi (barrier manners?) to be handy from good draws. So too Big Money. Charlie Boy and Neo may press forward and look to slot in. Ditto Scissor Kick. Quite a few here who like to drift back - Boban, Fontelina, Knoydart, Sacred Star, Generalife and Bring Me The Maid although the latter could sit closer from the nice barrier. Don't know where they go with Temple Of Boom from out there. Flamingo Star the unknown quantity but I expect he'll need more ground and will be burnt off his feet early.

Srikandi blotted her copybook for the first time last time out when she blew the start but if she can jump with them tomorrow she is drawn to get a lovely run just behind the speed from her good barrier.  That was her only failure here - her other two starts have been wins. She won the G3 Glenlogan Park Stakes at this course and distance on this day last year before running third (below) in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Handles all surfaces and she really does seem to thrive in Queensland with four wins from six Winter Carnival starts.

Sacred Star also caught the eye (above) in last year's G1 Stradbroke Handicap when he flashed home into fifth in a slowly run race. His Spring form was ordinary but he's bounced back at his last two starts to notch consecutive G1 victories in NZ. He missed the G1 BTC Cup a fortnight ago with a stone bruise but all reports from trainer Tony Pike say he's responded well to treatment and he is a three-time winner first-up including the G2 QTC Cup last year at 1300m.

Generalife ran an enormous race (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes. He came from last to finish a tick over a length behind Dissident and Wandjina who were 1-2 all the way in a slowly run race. Prior to that he won the G3 Star Kingdom Stakes first-up leaving subsequent G1 BTC Cup winner Hot Snitzel in his wake. Last Spring he ran some great races at 1400m behind quality opposition like Lucky Hussler and Hucklebuck. He's five weeks between runs but has had a strong barrier trial win in the meantime to keep him up to the mark.

Scissor Kick was alongside Generalife at the finish (above) in the G1 All Aged Stakes and has since run a good race in the G1 BTC Cup after being slow out of the barriers. He didn't see a lot of room early in the straight either but once jockey Tye Angland was able to switch him off heels he hit the line as well as any of them.  He was only just run down by Hallowed Crown in the G1 Golden Rose last September over 1400m when he was four deep without cover for the entire trip so the step up to 1350m looks ideal.

Our Boy Malachi is 17 wins from 20 starts so he's only missed the winners cheque on three occasions. Two of those were here at Doomben and he's only started here twice. The last one (below) wasn't a terrible run because he battled on for third in the G1 BTC Cup despite setting a hot tempo in front and I'm not convinced the fence was the place to be. He has two wins from two goes at 1300m (back-to-back Rockhampton Newmarket Handicaps) but has never been tried beyond that distance. He's three from three on wet tracks.

Bring Me The Maid was just behind the placegetters (above) in the G1 BTC Cup when she came through along the rail and as previously mentioned I don't think that was the best going. She is yet to place in three runs beyond 1200m but her last start effort proved she can be competitive at this level and let's face it this isn't the hottest field ever assembled for this race. She's sure to have her admirers and her wet track form is good (4:2-1-1) so any more rain would be a plus.

Knoydart was the best of the closers (above) when second in the G1 BTC Cup but perhaps he was flattered by the fact that Our Boy Malachi set it up for the backmarkers with a 34.55 split for the first 600m. Still he did run fifth in this race last year (below) in a much stronger field. Hasn't won since February last year but his subsequent nine runs have yielded four placings - three of which were at G1 level. His last win beyond 1200m was a Bm80 at Rosehill in July 2013 and his only other from eight attempts was his maiden.

Of the others Big Money wasn't bad last start when sixth in the G1 BTC Cup finishing alongside the likes of Bring Me The Maid and Scissor Kick after getting well back and coming wide. He won the Listed Lough Neagh Stakes at this track and distance third-up last prep and is a two time winner here at Doomben. He has four wins and two seconds from seven starts on affected ground. Temple Of Boom has drawn the car park and he has never won in 10 starts here at Doomben and in six starts beyond 1200m. Having said that he did finish third in this race three years ago and second last year (above) before finishing a narrow second in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap over 1400m. Any rain would help. Charlie Boy is a last start winner at this track and distance in the G3 BTC Sprint but on the downside in its 30 year history only Laurie's Lottery (1999) has come via that event to win this race. Snowden and Shinn combined for three winners at this track a fortnight ago. Rock Sturdy was second to Charlie Boy last start but meets him 1.5kg better off and he is progressing nicely following a near seven month injury enforced layoff. Boban has had two starts from the Doomben 1350m chute for a win in the Listed Phoenix Stakes as a 2-y-o and a second in the G3 Fred Best Classic as a 3-y-o on this day two years ago. A Time For War won the G2 BRC Sires Produce at this track and distance on this day last year beating subsequent dual G1 winner Brazen Beau. He's a speedy frontrunner and he'll give a good sight for a long way.

Locky's Selections

8 Generalife
14 Scissor Kick
13 Srikandi
7 Our Boy Malachi

Other Bets

I've Got The Looks (Doomben Race 2 No. 2) is flying this time in with two straight wins including a last start victory at this track (below) with a big weight. She's much better suited at the set weights plus penalties conditions here and the stable is flying. This is her first go beyond 1200m but they way she has been relaxing and finishing off her races seems to indicate the longer journey holds no fears. Opened $3.50.

I've Got the Looks (green sleeves) bursts through late to claim the Listed Juanmo Stakes

Najoom (Doomben Race 9 No. 14) has built up an impressive record (6:4-2-0) and she looked explosive winning the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas last start by almost four lengths. She's two from two at 1300m and beyond with a combined winning margin of almost eight lengths. The wide barrier is a slight concern but she has the entire length of the back straight to get across and find a handy position. Opened $4.00.

Roughies

Always Sacred (Randwick Race 1 No. 3) was well tried when winning on debut at Ipswich and Gold Coast trainer Toby Edmonds has elected to send him straight to Sydney at just his second start for a much tougher race. He obviously has an opinion of this 2-y-o because he's nominated for the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes on Stradbroke Day. Debut win was on a wet track. Opened $26.

Decircles (Flemington Race 6 No. 6) is a three time winner and a two time placegetter from seven runs up the Flemington "straight six". He was well supported first-up ($10 into $7) so he must have been showing something in training and I'm prepared to forgive the bad run because he was reported to have had a poor post-race recovery. 1100m is not really his go either. Up to 1200m I'll be having a peanut each-way. Opened $21.

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Goodwood Day 2015

A cracking days racing nationwide tomorrow with the G1 Goodwood in Adelaide, a stand alone meeting at Scone highlighted by the G3 Dark Jewel Classic (plus four other Listed races), a stand alone meeting at the Sunshine Coast for the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas (plus four other Listed races) and later in the day the G3 Roma Cup from Belmont in WA.

Apologies for not posting last week as advertised but I was in WA. I had every intention of doing a blog anyway but the weather was fantastic and the fish were biting!

The Morphettville track has copped 15mm of rain in the last week but none since Monday so we should be racing on an improving surface.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Damian Browne has had just 15 rides over the last three weeks but has bagged five winners including a staggering four from just five rides in one afternoon right here a fortnight ago. He won the Sunshine Coast Jockey's Premiership last year so it would appear he knows the track well.

He has five rides tomorrow at the venue in question but the bookies rate his best chances as Index Linked (Race 6 No. 1) and Diamond Oasis (Race 8 No. 5). 

Morphettville

*** As of 3.30pm this afternoon the track was rated a Slow 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, 3-y-o and up set weights plus penalties)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Flamberge: Of the eight winners of this race since it moved to set weights and penalties in 2007 four have paid $30 or more. Six carried 55.5kg or more. None were trained locally.

"The Speed Map" says - Lord of the Sky and Tudor probably try to get across to the lead from their wide gates. Thermal Current and Gregers to kick-up and take advantage of their good barriers. Can't imagine Riziz will be too far away either. Lucky Hussler, Flamberge, Daytona Grey, Politeness, Yesterday's Songs and Vain Queen have drawn poorly and they all tend to go back so I can't see them being bustled out of the machine. Hucklebuck, Smokin Joey', Black Heart Bart, Under The Louvre and It Is Written look like they'll get good runs. Ditto Light It Up.

Black Heart Bart has been the best backed in early markets and he really seems to have matured since turning four. He had eight starts during his 3-y-o season that yielded no wins and five placings but since resuming last October he's bagged seven wins and two seconds from 10 outings. In fact he's won six of his last seven and his last four in a row. In races up to 1400m he has only missed the quinella once in 12 starts and that was on debut. This is the biggest challenge of his career and the Sandgropers have been going great guns in Adelaide of late.

Hucklebuck is first-up since his win in the G1 Emirates Stakes (below) at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival. He's won three from four fresh and two of those were at this track and distance. He's putting together an imposing record with eight wins and two placings from just the 13 starts but he'll have to defy history because no horse has won this race fresh in the last 50 years. The 58.5kg impost will test him but I can see him getting a saloon passage in transit from the inside draw.

Lucky Hussler was just pipped by Hucklebuck (above) in the Spring but he subsequently picked up the G1 William Reid Stakes when resuming at Moonee Valley six weeks ago. It was a dominant win and he followed it up with a sound one and a quarter length six to Dissident (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes. The wet track, a torrid wide run without cover and a slow tempo were against him that day but he can bounce back on a drying surface. The big weight and the double figure barrier are the concerns.

Under The Louvre just missed first-up in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) before winning the Listed Hareeba Stakes at Mornington with a leg in the air. He was probably a bit stiff last start when he ran into traffic and he has not missed a top three finish in his last nine outings. Dropping back from the 1400m to 1200m but he has had 10 goes at the trip for six wins and three placings. He's a young horse on the way up and he gets in well at the weights and he can be a lot closer in the running tomorrow from barrier five.

Vain Queen is another who has attracted early market support and she has been competitive at the top level her last three starts finishing roughly about a length and a half off the winner in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (above), G1 William Reid Stakes and G1 Sangster Stakes. Having said that I thought Politeness went to the line better than her in the latter race (below) and she does meet her a half kilo worse off but on the upside she meets Under The Louvre three kilos better off than in the Oakleigh Plate and Lucky Hussler 2.5kg better off than in the G1 William Reid Stakes.

Of the others Lord of the Sky was just nabbed by the highly rated Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes but he has blown like a westerly in early betting. Is this an afterthought? Riziz is a six-time winner here at Morphettville including five at this distance and he hasn't missed a top two finish in four runs this prep. He ran third in this race last year at $26 with 55.5kg. Gregers is ultra-consistent and she finished well ahead of Vain Queen last start and yet will probably start five points longer in the betting? She's drawn to get a gun run too. Three starts here at Morphettville for a second and a third in the last two G1 Sangster Stakes and a fourth in last year's G1 Goodwood. Thermal Current snapped an 11 run winless streak last start and he's drawn well and can race close to the lead. That means jockey Ben Melham won't need much luck and he has steered home the last two winners of this race. Politeness stormed home from a long way back in a leader dominated race last start and gets some weight relief here. Trainer Robert Smerdon has won this race twice before. Smokin' Joey won this race last year.

Locky's Selections

10 Under The Louvre
1 Hucklebuck
2 Lucky Hussler
12 Gregers

Other bets

Merion (Sunshine Coast Race 5 No. 1) has been chasing home the likes of Wandjina, Hauraki and Hi World at his last three starts so he'll find this much easier. Trainer Mike Moroney won this race in 2011 with Shenzou Steeds and he is no stranger to Winter Carnival success having previously claimed a Queensland Cup, an Ipswich Cup and a Caloundra Cup. As previously mentioned hoop Damian Browne rides this circuit well. Opened $8.00.

Brettan (Scone Race 5 No. 12) is unbeaten fresh and he'll be in this for a long way given his usual pattern of racing near the lead and his good draw. Trainer Anthony Cummings had a day out at the corresponding meeting two years ago combining with Peter Robl for a winning treble and he always seems to target this day and come away with a nice race. Opened $12.00.

Dothraki (Scone Race 8 No. 2) sees Blake Shinn and Team Snowden combine again following their treble at Doomben last weekend. In five runs last campaign this bloke didn't miss a place for former trainer Gerald Ryan including two seconds to the talented Our Boy Malachi and two narrow defeats with big weights. The Triple Crown Syndications galloper is having his first start for the new stable (just like G1 BTC Cup winner Hot Snitzel last week) and he has only missed a place twice in his last 13 starts. Opened $7.00.

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All Aged Stakes Day 2015

It's taken a lot of baby oil and some tender massage from Chris Waller to get over the low blow bookies dealt me last weekend but I'm ready to go again and make some more ballsy calls this week.

We'll be racing on a much better surface tomorrow although there will still be some give in the ground and the rail is out eight metres for the majority of the circuit so it may pay to watch the first couple of races and assess if the fence is the place to be as it was last weekend. 

I think it will be. My selections are based around this. I hope I'm right!

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Tony Gollan trained four winners at Doomben last Saturday then had another winner on Sunday at the Sunshine Coast and again at the same track on Wednesday.

His best chance at Doomben tomorrow looks to be Trakstar (Race 3 No. 5) and he could bag the quinella with the former Peter Gelagotis trained galloper Hvasstan (Race 6 No. 1) and Tornado Miss (Race 6 No. 11). 

Randwick

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of late rain. ***

The All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: The last winner to pay double figure odds was El Mirada ($31) in 2001. Six of the last nine favourites were successful. 

"The Speed Map" says - I think Wandjina will try to cross and lead from out wide. The other three-year-olds Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick have drawn well and could take advantage of that. Laser Hawk is always up near the lead. So too Dissident. Chautauqua and Terravista may not get as far back as usual given it is 1400m. I expect the rest will drift back.

Chautauqua comes off victory (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. He overcame a track that was favouring on pace horses to sweep from the back of the field in testing conditions. It was the run of a serious animal. He has won previously over the 1400m in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas. Coincidentally that was his fourth run last Autumn. There's a lot to like about this bloke - he handles wet or dry, he can do it on a straight track or around a bend, he can win in Sydney and in Melbourne and he hasn't missed a top two finish in his last six starts. He looks the testing material.

Terravista was third behind Chautauqua (above) last start and he appeared to have every possible chance. Interestingly his form up to 1200m reads 10:7-0-2 but his form beyond 1200m reads 5:2-1-0 and one of those wins was at 1300m. Having said that he is looking like a horse who wants the 1400m now. My concern is that his only win over the trip came here in November 2013 in a BM85. I'm risking him but that's good news if you like him because it seems everything I tip then jump off comes out and wins - Kermadec, Chautauqua, Grand Marshal, the list goes on.

Lucky Hussler was a dominant winner of the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley three weeks ago. The third horse Griante ran a great race here last weekend when a narrow second to the superior wet tracker Avoid Lightning in the G2 Sapphire Stakes. He put paid to them in a twinkling on that occasion just as he did last Spring (below) in the G3 Moonga Stakes over this distance on Caulfield Cup Day. He's been a revelation since transferring to the Darren Weir stable with two wins and four placings from six starts. I haven't been able to find a spot for him in my top four but he terrifies me. 

Wandjina has had a freshen up since his gutsy win (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas in early March. G1 Doncaster Mile winner Kermadec chased him home that day but granted he didn't have a lot of luck. Prior to that this fella won the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes over this trip at his first run since finishing a game tenth (beaten just three and a half lengths) in the G1 Cox Plate last October when he clearly didn't see out the trip. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times and Damien Oliver has won it twice. Two of the last three winners of this race were 3-y-o's but only one other juvenile has won since Flying Spur in 1996.

Shooting To Win (below) comes out of the G1 George Ryder Stakes which is turning out to be the form race of the Autumn. Between them the four horses that beat him home have run 1-2-3 in the G1 Doncaster Mile and won the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He pulled up after that race with back soreness so the Snowden's elected to bypass the G1 Doncaster Mile. He's since had a barrier trial and the stable is pressing on so that's a good sign. He's a G1 Caulfield Guineas winning colt so I can't imagine they'd be risking his record (and potential stud value) unless he was a genuine winning chance. He's not here for the exercise.

Dissident can't be left out of calculations going on his win (below) in the G1 Orr Stakes just two starts back. G1 Sydney Cup winning jockey Jimmy Cassidy jumps back on board for the first time since steering him to two wins and a second from four rides last Autumn including the G1 Randwick Guineas. He should be able to give him the gun run from barrier six and the Moody stable has enjoyed Black Type success already this Autumn with Plucky Belle and Hi World. He's had six starts at 1400m and has never missed a place and he's a four time G1 winner including two at this trip and yet they're still betting double figure odds.

Scissor Kick hasn't raced for eight weeks and he does seem to produce his best runs fresh. He's had two goes at 1400m for a narrow second (below) to Hallowed Crown in the G1 Golden Rose after being wide throughout and a one and a half length fifth to the same horse in the G2 Hobartville Stakes two months ago. He didn't have a lot of luck that day either but was still just behind the likes of Kermadec and Shooting To Win. The stable accepted for the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint last weekend but scratched to target this instead and he's unbeaten here at Randwick.

A quick look at the rest who are all $26+.

Fontelina was good from the back of the field when fourth behind Chautauqua and Terravista last start (see video above) and he always seems to run a good race third run in to his preparation. A dry track would be a plus. Laser Hawk broke through for his first win in three years when he claimed the G3 Newcastle Newmarket last start. This is much harder but he has trialled really well since alongside Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick and he looked hard held. Weary is racing like a tired horse. Generalife will probably find this too tough and his best form has been at Rosehill and not at G1 w-f-a. Lucky Hussler gave him weight during the Spring and crushed him. Famous Seamus does not appreciate wet tracks and has just two placings from seven attempts at 1400m. He also has to overcome a horror barrier. Rebel Dane finished a three and a half length fifth in this race 12 months ago and hasn't won for 18 months. He's had three placings in 11 subsequent runs. Barrier eight won't be much help to him either.

Good race. Tough race. I've had to leave some quality horses out of my selections but I can only tip four!

Locky's Selections

11 Shooting To Win
1 Chautauqua
2 Dissident
13 Scissor Kick

Other bets

Press Report (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) will appreciate a big drop in class here after contesting the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes last start behind Chautauqua, Terravista etc. and prior to that she did win against the boys and the older horses. In fairness it was a fairly weak race but apart from it her last six runs have been at G1 or G2 level. From the good draw she can be close to the speed and if the rain holds off she looks well weighted on the minimum of 54kg. Opened $11.00.

Tarquin (Randwick Race 4 No. 4) is in a stable that is making a habit of winning these Autumn 2-y-o features. His run in the G1 Sires Produce (below) was full of merit given he was wide with no cover for most of the race and only tired late. Tomorrow he draws a good barrier and gets a better surface. Prior to that he was unbeaten. Stretching to 1600m should be no concern because his sire was placed in a G1 Kentucky Derby and his dam is a full sister to champion stayer Fantastic Light. Jockey James MacDonald could win on a rocking horse at the moment. Opened $6.00.

Malice (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) will appreciate the firming track conditions and he has won two from three second-up. He should get a lovely trail here from barrier six and he has a win and a third from two goes at the 2000m. This time last year he was a just over a length behind Arabian Gold in the G3 Frank Packer Plate over this course and distance. His fresh run when second in the G3 Doncaster Prelude was good and he easily accounted for Leebaz on that occasion and can only take improvement from the run. Opened $4.80.

Fast 'n' Rocking (Randwick Race 7 No. 4) drops back from the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes to a race that is much easier He was also nominated for the G1 All Aged Stakes but trainers Hayes and Dabernig elected for the softer option. The stable is on fire having claimed the G1 Queen Elizabeth with Criterion last weekend. He's stormed home and been close up in both the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and the G1 Galaxy this campaign and I think he can break through here at good odds in a wide open race. Opened $13.00.

Burbero (Randwick Race 8 No. 2) comes via that red hot G1 George Ryder Stakes mentioned above in relation to Shooting To Win. That was the only time in his last nine starts he's missed the quinella but a two and a half length sixth behind the likes of Real Impact, Criterion and Kermadec reads well for a race like this. His big weight is offset by the claim for the apprentice and Brodie Loy has four wins and three seconds from his last seven rides on the horse. Opened $5.50.

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The Championships 2015 Day Two

Mongolian Khan got me the chocolates last weekend at $6.50 in the G1 ATC Derby when he simply outstayed some more fancied rivals. Thank God for him or I would have been singing for my supper.

This week I'll be looking for horses that can race handy to the speed because that was the pattern on the wet track last week, the rail at Randwick is out six metres and we're on a five day back-up on a track that has a history of serious problems when it is rain affected.

Given last week's results I'll also be looking for value and avoiding hotpots.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Chris Waller isn't exactly hot but he bounced back into the G1 winners circle last weekend when Kermadec claimed the G1 Doncaster Mile. Amazingly that was just his second winner at the highest level since the Spring with the only other being G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau.

It's funny how sometimes a drought breaker like that can lead to the floodgates opening and he looks poised to go on with it at Randwick tomorrow with runners like Winx (Race 6 No. 2), Ballet Suite (Race 6 No. 10), Catkins (Race 7 No. 2), Who Shot Thebarman (Race 8 No. 4) and Adelaide (Race 9 No. 9). 

Randwick

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Contributer is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - N/A: The statistics are largely irrelevant for this race because it has not previously attracted this type of field. Prior to the boost in prizemoney it was a much lesser race.

"The Speed Map" says - Fiveandahalfstar to lead Aomen and Tosen Stardom. I expect Beaten Up and Criterion will be handy from inside draws. To The World should settle midfield. Happy Trails, Red Cadeaux and Spillway will get back. The same applies to Adelaide, Royal Descent and Lucia Valentina from their awkward barriers.

No particular order - just trying to keep all the horses with similar form lines together in order to help structure the narrative around the replays!

Tosen Stardom (below) chased home Contributer last start in the G1 Ranvet Stakes and I expect he will take plenty of benefit from his first run on Australian soil. The Japanese horses can never be underestimated however and jockey Tommy Berry has been talking this horse up ever since he first sat on his back and he does boast a win on soft ground. The question is how does a "yielding" track in Japan compare to a genuine slow track in Australia.

Lucia Valentina also contested the G1 Ranvet Stakes two starts back (above) and was the best performed of the local breds behind the aforementioned duo. She followed that with a three length seventh to Hartnell in the G1 BMW. I like the fact that she's had a run over the mile and a half before dropping back to the ten furlongs because it will steel her for a hard run on a slogging track. She's never missed a place at 2000m or on a rain affected track.

Criterion was a narrow second last start (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and that form looks pretty good now because he split the subsequent G1 Doncaster Mile trifecta in Kermadec (3rd), Real Impact (1st) and Royal Descent (4th). His previous run over the unsuitable 1300m of the G1 Canterbury Stakes was also pleasing when he beat all bar Cosmic Endeavour and Catkins. He won the G1 Australian Derby at this track last year on a Heavy 9.

Adelaide (below) can't be dismissed lightly because at his last start he was also first-up and also tackling 2000m and he managed to win the G1 Cox Plate. The run was enormous because he circled the field from last around the tight Moonee Valley turn and left a string of serious racehorses in his wake including some of his rivals here like Happy Trails, Criterion and Royal Descent. The stable thinks he's at his best on top of the ground but his wet track credentials look OK to me. Three wins and a second from four goes at 2000m.

Happy Trails was only three quarters of a length behind Adelaide (above) in that G1 Cox Plate and maybe should have finished closer with a bit more luck. He went OK in the G1 Doncaster Mile on Easter Monday considering he doesn't really handle wet ground but the five day turnaround is a concern. Having said that, seven days after his run behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate last year he won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes so he has shown he can handle a quick back-up.

Spillway beat Happy Trails last start (below) when claiming the G1 Australian Cup. I think 2000m is as far as he wants and given that I'm thinking this is going to race like a 2200m-2400m contest I'm risking him here. He tends to space his victories and his best form is on firm tracks. 

Red Cadeaux is another who comes via the G1 Australian Cup (above) and although most thought he would go to the two miles of the G1 Sydney Cup (for which he also accepted) trainer Ed Dunlop has elected to run here. I think the 2000m will be too short (he's never won below 2400m) but he could run into the trifecta because he has placed five times in eight goes at this distance. He'll be strong at the end too if it becomes a slog because it is well documented that he is a three time G1 Melbourne Cup placegetter.

Royal Descent is another like Happy Trails who is backing up after the G1 Doncaster Mile. Her run (below) was full of merit given that she conceded the 3-y-o Kermadec four kilos and was trapped wide throughout. The top five in that race really cleared out from the rest and that is usually a good sign but as I mentioned last week she has not won in 17 starts since the G1 Australian Oaks almost two years ago.

To The World chased home Hartnell (below) in the G1 BMW last start and that horse will start the shortest priced G1 Sydney Cup favourite since Tie The Knot in 1999. His best form is around 1800m-2000m so his effort in that race was good considering he probably just got found out the last little bit and it was his first run since late December so I expect he will strip fitter. Back to 2000m where he has two wins and a second from three runs he should be more effective. He's untried on wet tracks but then again so was Kermadec last week.

Fiveandahalfstar, Beaten Up and Aomen will probably find this too tough although Beaten Up was only a length and a half behind Hartnell and To The World (above) in the G1 BMW so perhaps he has run himself back into some sort of form.

Cracking race.

Locky's Selections

10 To The World
11 Tosen Stardom
9 Adelaide
2 Contributer

Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current market

*** Red Cadeaux is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Protectionist: Seven of the last 11 winners have carried 55kg or more and returned odds of $6.50 or less.

"The Speed Map" says - There are quite a few in here that I think will drift back - Protectionist, Dominant, Who Shot Thebarman, Akzar, Like A Carousel, Renew and Grand Marshal. That means that the tempo could be muddling. If Au Revoir, Big Memory and Don Doremo go forward then Hartnell looks like he'll get the run of the race.

Hartnell put the writing on the wall last start (below) with a strong staying display to win the G1 BMW.  He easily accounted for the Japanese raider To The World on that occasion and that horse is the favourite for tomorrow's G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He also left Who Shot Thebarman and Protectionist in his wake and he meets both those horses much better at the weights under the handicap conditions. He's had three starts since coming to Australia for two wins and a second to Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. He's won at 3200m and he's a four time winner on affected ground. Hard to knock.

Who Shot Thebarman was the best of the closers (above) in the aforementioned G1 BMW. He made his run with Protectionist and was stronger to the line for mine. He meets that horse 3.5kg better off at the weights too. Having said that he meets Hartnell 2.5kg worse off for being two lengths behind him at the finish. One thing we do know for sure about this bloke is that he will run out a strong two miles going on his third placing (below) in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup.

Protectionist (above) of course won that race and he is crying out for this journey. All his runs so far this prep have been aimed at getting him ready for this and you would have to say that while they haven't been flashy they have been "pass marks". The worry is the weight he will have to concede to his main rivals but the wet track brings him back into it a bit because he revels in soft ground. He's in my top selections but he won't be on top.

Everything else is big odds including the Hong Kong visitor Dominant but I can't have him because he has no wins beyond 2400m and his wet track form reads poorly. I'm not potting the horse I just don't think he has conditions to suit here. If you're looking for roughies you could do worse than throw Grand Marshal into your exotics. He has won up to 2800m and has wet track form and his effort here on Monday when third behind Tremec in the G2 Chairman's Handicap was gritty if not explosive and six of the last seven winners came via that race. Big Memory has had eight runs beyond 2400m for two wins and four placings and he won't know himself with just 52kg.


Locky's Selections

6 Hartnell

4 Who Shot Thebarman
1 Protectionist
8 Big Memory

Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

*** Fenway and Adrift are early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Ballet Suite: 14 of the last 18 winners were at single figure odds. 16 finished top five at their previous run but only two of them completed the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes/G1 Australian Oaks double. In the same period only two fillies have completed the G1 VRC Oaks/G1 Australian Oaks double and 13 favourites have been beaten.

"The Speed Map" says - Candelara leads. Rustic Melody handy. Thunder Lady, Savaria and Ballet Suite to drift back from bad barriers. Winx, Gust Of Wind and Wildenstein should go back too. Sweet And Speedy, Wine Tales and Zarzali sit midfield.

Winx will start a shorter price here than Thunder Lady and Ballet Suite despite finishing behind them last start (below) in the traditional lead-up race the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. She did cop some interference at a crucial stage in the straight however and was finishing as well as any of them. Prior to that she took on the boys in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes and raced away to win by nearly two lengths from Hauraki. That form is looking pretty good now.

Thunder Lady will also eat up the 2400m going on her run (below) when second in the G1 VRC Oaks during the Spring Carnival. She's been patiently handled since and looks to be ticking along nicely towards this judging by her fast finishing third (above) in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. John Sargent is an astute Kiwi trainer who knows how to get fillies ready for these 3-y-o classics having won the 2013 G1 VRC Oaks with Kirramosa and the 2012 G1 Queensland Oaks with Quintessential. She'll get back and have to weave a passage and that may not be the place to be. 

Ballet Suite was just behind Thunder Lady in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and was finishing just as well but she also looks as if she will get back in the second half of the field and have to fight her way through the ruck. If that doesn't concern you then she ticks a lot of boxes. She's placed on a slow track, she's a daughter of High Chapparal so the distance shouldn't bother her, prior to last start she'd strung together three wins on end and Coolmore have engaged the services of their top jockey in G1 Cox Plate/G1 Melbourne Cup winning hoop Ryan Moore.

Savaria comes off a win in the G1 NZ Oaks on a soft track and it was very impressive. She was held up for a long way down the straight but when she saw daylight she really let down like a good horse. She won going away in the end and really attacked the line despite the fact that jockey Hayden Tinsley was pretty kind to her the last little bit. The problem is Daffodil (2009) is the only filly in the last 30 years to win this race off a last start run in NZ.

Candelara is looking to become the fifth filly in 14 years to claim the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes/G1 Australian Oaks double. She has a lot in her favour. She has drawn a great barrier and has the gate speed to make use of it. She's the likely leader on a track that I think will be difficult to make up ground on. Jockey Hugh Bowman is coming off a winning double here last weekend and he has won this race twice previously. This Baker family from NZ does make a habit of coming over here and pinching our coin with their 3-y-o's too - think It's A Dundeel, Lion Tamer, Atlante, Harris Tweed and most recently Mongolian Khan. 

Of the rest I think Rustic Melody is consistent and handled her first go on a wet track well when she fought hard for second in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes behind Candelara. Zarzali is crying out for 2400m but the question is can she run it fast enough? 

Locky's Selections

5 Candelara
4 Savaria
9 Rustic Melody
10 Ballet Suite

Other bets

Catkins (Randwick Race 7 No. 2) is likely to be at a backable price here given the presence of Noble Protector and First Seal. The former is having her first go in Sydney and the latter is a filly I admire but she was found to have blood in one nostril after her last start defeat. I'm going to take them both on and hope that this bonny mare can finally breakthrough for a much deserved G1 victory. She's well in at w-f-a, can race close to the lead, handles affected ground and has a genius in the saddle. Trainer goes OK too. Opened $4.80.

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