The G1 Queensland Oaks and it is being run at Doomben. It makes for an interesting race with the distance reduced from 2400m to 2200m, a capacity field on a much smaller, tighter track (and the rail is out five metres too) plus the fact the traditional lead-up the G2 Doomben Roses was run a week rather than a fortnight before the feature.
The eleventh hour scratching of the highly fancied Bohemian Lily only adds to the intrigue.
The eleventh hour scratching of the highly fancied Bohemian Lily only adds to the intrigue.
Who's hot?
Chris Waller's double at Doomben last weekend gives him six individual Black Type winners for the Winter Carnival so far. Three of them go around at Doomben again tomorrow amongst a host of other runners.
His best chances appear to be Champagne Cath (Race 6 No. 3) and Oaks aspirants Winx (Race 7 No. 2) and Ballet Suite (Race 7 No. 4). He also appears to have a mortgage on Race 4 with five of the seven runners.
Doomben
*** As of 11.30am this morning the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2200m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
*** Bohemian Lily is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Ballet Suite: 15 of the last 20 winners returned $9 or less for the win and yet only four of them started favourite. Nine of the last 10 winners came off a run at Doomben.
"The Speed Map" says - No Bohemian Lily so where is the speed? Rustic Melody tries to cross and probably does so without much bother. Col 'n' Lil will kick up to take advantage of the good draw. Perhaps Exquisite Jewel does the same. Ditto Ungrateful Ellen and Whatalovelyday. Pretty much everything else gets back and runs on. This could be a sit-and-sprint affair.
Winx breezed to victory last start in the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas. It was a slashing win given she was five weeks between runs and dropping back to the mile from the 2400m of the G1 ATC Oaks (below) when she was a closing second. It's an unorthodox Oaks preparation but with the race run at Doomben this year and over the 2200m it could be the ideal lead-up. Especially given this year's G2 Doomben Roses was run a week before instead of the usual fortnight and all those fillies are on a seven day back-up.
Ballet Suite was alongside Winx in the run (above) in the G1 ATC Oaks but had no match for her turn of foot and finished down the track some 15 lengths behind the winner. She did bounce back next start when returning to the 2000m of the Listed Princess Stakes where she simply outstayed Bohemian Lily. The bad news is she will have to do it from the extreme outside barrier and given her usual pattern of racing that will probably see her in the back half of a large field.
The rest are likely to start $12+ but there are quite a few I could entertain in wider exotics. Rustic Melody has a poor draw but she wasn't far behind Winx in the G1 ATC Oaks before chasing home a subsequent winner in High Midnight last weekend when dropping back to 1900m. Zarzali came from last to be on the heels of Ballet Suite and Bohemian Lily in the Listed Princess Stakes. She's a winner up to 2400m so the step-up in distance this start appeals. Platinum Witness finished second in the G1 NZ Oaks then had eight weeks off. It might pay to forgive her last run because she was second-up and straight from 1400m to 2000m. She did manage to run past a few in a leader dominated race. Exquisite Jewel also closed well in the same event and should get a good run in transit from the inside draw. Col 'n' Lil has been a model of consistency this prep and has been in the money behind the likes of Bohemian Lily and Ballet Suite at her last three starts. Drawn well and will race handy. Yulong Baby was the best closer behind Bohemian Lily in the G2 Doomben Roses in a race where the first three over the line were the first three in the run. Terrible barrier though.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - No Bohemian Lily so where is the speed? Rustic Melody tries to cross and probably does so without much bother. Col 'n' Lil will kick up to take advantage of the good draw. Perhaps Exquisite Jewel does the same. Ditto Ungrateful Ellen and Whatalovelyday. Pretty much everything else gets back and runs on. This could be a sit-and-sprint affair.
Winx breezed to victory last start in the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas. It was a slashing win given she was five weeks between runs and dropping back to the mile from the 2400m of the G1 ATC Oaks (below) when she was a closing second. It's an unorthodox Oaks preparation but with the race run at Doomben this year and over the 2200m it could be the ideal lead-up. Especially given this year's G2 Doomben Roses was run a week before instead of the usual fortnight and all those fillies are on a seven day back-up.
Ballet Suite was alongside Winx in the run (above) in the G1 ATC Oaks but had no match for her turn of foot and finished down the track some 15 lengths behind the winner. She did bounce back next start when returning to the 2000m of the Listed Princess Stakes where she simply outstayed Bohemian Lily. The bad news is she will have to do it from the extreme outside barrier and given her usual pattern of racing that will probably see her in the back half of a large field.
Sebrina was nominated for the G2 Doomben Roses last Saturday but trainer Bjorn Baker elected to stay in Sydney and he's probably wishing he hadn't. Let's just say it's a good thing she had bad luck because otherwise she would have had no luck at all. She's drawn to get a better run here (she'll start from barrier five when the rest of the emergencies come out) and if the gaps come when she needs them to (fingers crossed!) she gives every impression she will run out a strong staying trip.
Ungrateful Ellen has put in two big runs at her last two outings. She had a torrid run last time out in the G3 SA Classic when she got caught wide yet she held on for third at the end of a gritty 2500m and prior to that she stormed home from last for fifth in the G1 SA Oaks. A better barrier this week helps too because her last three starts she's jumped from gate 10 in a field of 11, gate 13 of 16 and gate 14 of 14. The stable has had seven winners in the last two weeks including a two-state treble last weekend.The rest are likely to start $12+ but there are quite a few I could entertain in wider exotics. Rustic Melody has a poor draw but she wasn't far behind Winx in the G1 ATC Oaks before chasing home a subsequent winner in High Midnight last weekend when dropping back to 1900m. Zarzali came from last to be on the heels of Ballet Suite and Bohemian Lily in the Listed Princess Stakes. She's a winner up to 2400m so the step-up in distance this start appeals. Platinum Witness finished second in the G1 NZ Oaks then had eight weeks off. It might pay to forgive her last run because she was second-up and straight from 1400m to 2000m. She did manage to run past a few in a leader dominated race. Exquisite Jewel also closed well in the same event and should get a good run in transit from the inside draw. Col 'n' Lil has been a model of consistency this prep and has been in the money behind the likes of Bohemian Lily and Ballet Suite at her last three starts. Drawn well and will race handy. Yulong Baby was the best closer behind Bohemian Lily in the G2 Doomben Roses in a race where the first three over the line were the first three in the run. Terrible barrier though.
Locky's Selections
2 Winx
5 Rustic Melody
13 Ungrateful Ellen
11 Sebrina
5 Rustic Melody
13 Ungrateful Ellen
11 Sebrina
Best Bets
Kuro (Doomben Race 5 No. 3) won four from five last prep with his only "miss" a great third (below) behind Brazen Beau in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. This prep has been pretty good too - he was a close-up third in the Listed Fireball when resuming, then beat all bar Sweet Idea in the G1 Galaxy and last start at this track and distance he claimed the Listed Mick Dittman Plate. The improving track helps too because all his bad runs have been in the wet but he's never missed a place on a good track (7:4-1-2).
Bonete (Doomben Race 6 No. 15) is a former Kiwi who's now had four starts for the Joe Pride stable and hasn't missed a top four finish. Two starts back she beat Najoom and that form is looking pretty hot now. The engagement of Craig Williams is significant and she'll appreciate seeing a dry track for the first time in two months. She races close to the speed and from the good barrier she will be in it for a long way.
Digitalism (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 7) is a bit of a track specialist with two wins from two starts at the Moonee Valley mile with his only other appearance here resulting in a second placing. Apprentice jockey Michael Dee has claimed a winner at each of the last three Saturday metro meetings - Sonntag, Red Bomber and More Radiant.
Great Esteem (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has won his last two third-up appearances and he looks ready to win after two runs back. Overlook his fresh run when he was trapped wide and go on his last start run at Scone which was better than it looks on paper. He was nominated for Brisbane but Team Snowden have elected to contest this easier race and with the 2kg claim for Winona Costin he looks well weighted.
Well Backed
Bonete (Doomben Race 6 No. 15) is a former Kiwi who's now had four starts for the Joe Pride stable and hasn't missed a top four finish. Two starts back she beat Najoom and that form is looking pretty hot now. The engagement of Craig Williams is significant and she'll appreciate seeing a dry track for the first time in two months. She races close to the speed and from the good barrier she will be in it for a long way.
Digitalism (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 7) is a bit of a track specialist with two wins from two starts at the Moonee Valley mile with his only other appearance here resulting in a second placing. Apprentice jockey Michael Dee has claimed a winner at each of the last three Saturday metro meetings - Sonntag, Red Bomber and More Radiant.
Great Esteem (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has won his last two third-up appearances and he looks ready to win after two runs back. Overlook his fresh run when he was trapped wide and go on his last start run at Scone which was better than it looks on paper. He was nominated for Brisbane but Team Snowden have elected to contest this easier race and with the 2kg claim for Winona Costin he looks well weighted.
Well Backed
Comaneci (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 8) is a regally bred daughter of High Chapparal (So You Think, It's A Dundeel, Contributer etc.) out of Circles of Gold (Elvstroem, Haradasun) who opened at $15 but was quickly backed into $8.50. The wide draw is a concern but with the light weight and her good gate speed she should be able to find a good spot in the run form the 1600m start here.
Roughie
Go De Orpen (Moonee Valley Race 5 No. 15) has only won twice from ten career starts but both were first-up and both were at 1000m. He's $51 into $21 in early markets so there is obviously some confidence to say he can run a bit of a race. The light weight and inside barrier are a big plus and he does handle the sting out of the ground.
Roughie
Go De Orpen (Moonee Valley Race 5 No. 15) has only won twice from ten career starts but both were first-up and both were at 1000m. He's $51 into $21 in early markets so there is obviously some confidence to say he can run a bit of a race. The light weight and inside barrier are a big plus and he does handle the sting out of the ground.
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