The G1 Stradbroke Handicap and it is being run over 1350m at Doomben so all the stats and history basically go out the window with this effectively being a "Stradbroke 10,000" with the only difference being we are at handicap rather than w-f-a conditions.
It may pay to watch the first few races before having a bet to see how the Doomben track is playing. This is the fourth meeting here in 29 days with a few on wet surfaces and the track is showing some signs of wear with many recent winners swooping down the outside.
Maybe I'm just too superstitious but you can't spell "Doomben Stradbroke" without "DOOM" and "BROKE".
It may pay to watch the first few races before having a bet to see how the Doomben track is playing. This is the fourth meeting here in 29 days with a few on wet surfaces and the track is showing some signs of wear with many recent winners swooping down the outside.
Maybe I'm just too superstitious but you can't spell "Doomben Stradbroke" without "DOOM" and "BROKE".
Who's hot?
Peter Moody had three winners at Moonee Valley last weekend plus one at Morphettville for a two-state quaddie. He's had some recent Black Type success too with Upham and Flamberge. In past years he's been lucky on this day with winners in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (Mid Summer Music), G1 Queensland Derby (Brambles, Riva San) and G2 Brisbane Cup (Floria, Lights Of Heaven).
His best chances at the feature Doomben meeting look to be Bring Me The Maid (Race 4 No. 4), Ulmann (Race 5 No. 17), Basset (Race 6 No. 3) and Upham (Race 7 No. 2) but he also has a host of runners at Moonee Valley and a few at Randwick too.
Doomben
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1350m, handicap)
*** Lord Of The Sky is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - N/A: The race is being run at Doomben and with the switching of race dates it makes the stats largely irrelevant. I can tell you though that five of the last seven winners returned $21-$31 and only one favourite has saluted in the last 10 years.
"The Speed Map" says - Bad barriers for Hot Snitzel, Temple Of Boom and Fontelina mean they probably have to push forward. I expect Srikandi, El Roca and Sacred Star will all try to take advantage of their good barriers. Pace should be genuine if not breakneck.
I'll start with the first seven over the line in the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) a fortnight ago because all of them are in the top half of the market here.
Boban won the race - his first since March last year and it was a strong if narrow victory when first up for 12 weeks. He seems to have an affinity for the circuit because that's now two wins and a second from three starts here at the Doomben 1350m. He meets all his rivals worse off at the weights but you'd think he'd take improvement from the run and the Waller stable is winning everything. No horse has won this race carrying more than 56kg since Rough Habit (58.5kg) in 1992.
Charlie Boy (second) was just behind Boban and meets him 4kg better off here. Prior to that he won at this course and distance when claiming the G3 BRC Sprint so he has clearly thrived since coming to Queensland. He's another from an in-form stable. The good barrier will probably see him parked midfield in a perfect position to pounce on the home turn. If he can dash at the end of this race the same way he did last start he'll be right in the finish with just 54kg on his back.
Sacred Star (fifth) was first-up in the race and is sure to take benefit from the run but he'd need to because the first three looked clearly superior and he'll be meeting Charlie Boy, Generalife and Knoydart worse at comparative weights. He's a four time winner at the trip and a three time winner second-up. He did run fifth in this race last year at Eagle Farm (below) sprinting home well off an unsuitable tempo also at his second run in.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Bad barriers for Hot Snitzel, Temple Of Boom and Fontelina mean they probably have to push forward. I expect Srikandi, El Roca and Sacred Star will all try to take advantage of their good barriers. Pace should be genuine if not breakneck.
I'll start with the first seven over the line in the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) a fortnight ago because all of them are in the top half of the market here.
Boban won the race - his first since March last year and it was a strong if narrow victory when first up for 12 weeks. He seems to have an affinity for the circuit because that's now two wins and a second from three starts here at the Doomben 1350m. He meets all his rivals worse off at the weights but you'd think he'd take improvement from the run and the Waller stable is winning everything. No horse has won this race carrying more than 56kg since Rough Habit (58.5kg) in 1992.
Charlie Boy (second) was just behind Boban and meets him 4kg better off here. Prior to that he won at this course and distance when claiming the G3 BRC Sprint so he has clearly thrived since coming to Queensland. He's another from an in-form stable. The good barrier will probably see him parked midfield in a perfect position to pounce on the home turn. If he can dash at the end of this race the same way he did last start he'll be right in the finish with just 54kg on his back.
Generalife (third) loomed as the winner halfway down the straight but his condition just seemed to give out in the final stages - possibly because he was five weeks in between runs. He'll strip fitter here and meets Boban 3.5kg better at the weights but Charlie Boy 0.5kg worse off. His run in the G1 All Aged Stakes (below) has him right in this but he will have to start from the extreme outside barrier so he'll likely be spotting them a big start. Look for him to be charging late.
Knoydart (fourth) did what Knoydart always does - he got back, ran on and caught the eye and no doubt a few suckers will fall into him again here. Sooner or later he will win a nice race but I've lost patience with him so unfortunately he's been banished to the "Never To Be Backed Again Under Any Circumstances" corner. He will have to pass a vet test in the morning too after he was found to be short in his action today. Just watch him come out and bolt in now that I've put the mock on him and leave me looking like an idiot.Sacred Star (fifth) was first-up in the race and is sure to take benefit from the run but he'd need to because the first three looked clearly superior and he'll be meeting Charlie Boy, Generalife and Knoydart worse at comparative weights. He's a four time winner at the trip and a three time winner second-up. He did run fifth in this race last year at Eagle Farm (below) sprinting home well off an unsuitable tempo also at his second run in.
Srikandi (sixth) was disappointing after looming as the winner at the top of the straight but she was placed in this race last year (above) so she can't be dismissed entirely. That race was at Eagle Farm however but her Doomben from had been terrific until a month ago. Back to handicap conditions could help her turn her form around because she drops to 53kg here but she needs to lift.
Rock Sturdy (2E) (seventh) came along the rail and sprinted quickly before being collared late. He was stuck on the rail in a race where the first four came from back and wide down the crown of the track so perhaps the margin was a tad unfair. Trainer Joe Pride only brought a handful of horses north for the Winter Carnival but he's had success with Kuro and Ball of Muscle. If you are the type who looks for blowout results and big priced roughies he could be your guy.
Now on to the other form lines.
Lumosty is now securely in the field and will run our favourite. She has been impressive at her two runs back from a spell with two dominant wins down the Flemington straight by a combined margin of nearly six lengths. The trip shouldn't be a concern as she broke her maiden with a nine length romp over 1423m on a Slow 6 at Sale. The worry is that all of her runs have been in Victoria and she has never been tested this way of going.
Now on to the other form lines.
Lumosty is now securely in the field and will run our favourite. She has been impressive at her two runs back from a spell with two dominant wins down the Flemington straight by a combined margin of nearly six lengths. The trip shouldn't be a concern as she broke her maiden with a nine length romp over 1423m on a Slow 6 at Sale. The worry is that all of her runs have been in Victoria and she has never been tested this way of going.
Black Heart Bart caught the eye fresh when he came from last for a fast finishing fourth (below) in the G1 Goodwood at his last run. He was forced to switch from the rails and come very wide and he was doing his best work late after finally seeing daylight. The trouble is he could face the same problem here tomorrow because jockey Glenn Smith faces a Herculean task to weave a passage through from that awkward barrier.
Delectation has a lot of ability but he does a lot of things wrong and you just can't afford to do that when you take on top company. Mind you he does remind me a bit of 2007 winner Sniper's Bullet. He ran second with 60kg when well tried in his lead up run then dropped to 50kg and won the G1 feature. This horse drops from 59kg to 52kg and was also placed at his last run when he started favourite.
The rest are likely to start $21+ but of the others Hot Snitzel faces a task from a wide barrier but he has Blake Shinn on board and he is riding well. Team Snowden just keep training winners and he is a last start winner (below) of the G1 BTC Cup. Both El Roca and Fast 'n' Rocking have light weights and good barriers and are capable of running a good race on their day.Delectation has a lot of ability but he does a lot of things wrong and you just can't afford to do that when you take on top company. Mind you he does remind me a bit of 2007 winner Sniper's Bullet. He ran second with 60kg when well tried in his lead up run then dropped to 50kg and won the G1 feature. This horse drops from 59kg to 52kg and was also placed at his last run when he started favourite.
Locky's Selections
8 Charlie Boy
1 Boban
16 Delectation
18 Rock Sturdy
1 Boban
16 Delectation
18 Rock Sturdy
Other Doomben Races
Into The Red (Listed Hinkler Handicap Doomben Race 1 No. 3) showed last start what most people knew he was capable of from an early age. Gelding has been the key to this bloke because he looks much more switched on now. Two from four at the Doomben 1200m start. $7.50 into $4.60 in early betting says some people think he can repeat here.
Harlem River (Listed Lancaster Stakes Doomben Race 2 No. 6) tried hard on debut when second in the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Scone three weeks ago. Flippant did defeat her that day but the step up from 1100m to 1200m could see this filly turn the tables. Waterhouse stable has been in good nick lately - think Pornichet, Najoom, Bohemian Lily and Frespanol.
Harlem River (Listed Lancaster Stakes Doomben Race 2 No. 6) tried hard on debut when second in the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Scone three weeks ago. Flippant did defeat her that day but the step up from 1100m to 1200m could see this filly turn the tables. Waterhouse stable has been in good nick lately - think Pornichet, Najoom, Bohemian Lily and Frespanol.
Catkins (G2 Dane Ripper Stakes Doomben Race 4 No. 1) has finished in the quinella at 22 of her last 29 starts. That is remarkable. She seems to thrive on these sort of races too - fillies and mares grade at set weights plus penalties. Hugh Bowman back in the saddle is a big plus too because he's ridden this mare to six wins.
Ulmann (G2 Queensland Guineas Race 5 No. 17) is first emergency so he may not get a start here but if he does I think he's right in the mix. He chased home Winx last start and we all know what she did last week. His only other start at the mile was a victory at Sandown three starts back. Barrier six is an advantage too from the tricky 1600m start at Doomben.
Bassett (G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes Doomben Race 6 No. 3) cruised to victory on debut and his stablemate who ran second subsequently won well last weekend at Moonee Valley when well tried. As previously mentioned it's good to draw well at this tricky starting position and he'll be near the lead in a race where I doubt they'll go fast because it's 2-y-o's stepping to 1600m for the first time. 1100m straight to 1600m the only concern but this Moody bloke knows his stuff.
Sense Of Occasion (G2 Brisbane Cup Race 9 No. 10) is a talented young horse on the way up in a race where nine of the 13 runners are almost 7-y-o (or older) and seem to be trading on old form. He hasn't missed a top two finish in four runs this campaign and trainer Joe Pride is having a pretty profitable Winter Carnival. Perhaps now he can finally afford to get his hair cut by someone other than Eddie Munster's barber.
Well Backed
Magic Hurricane (Randwick Race 3 No. 9) is $7.50 into $4.60 on the back of steady support so obviously there is mail to suggest this new acquisition for the Godolphin stable can produce fresh. He's a former UK galloper now trained in Australia and he did have pretty good form overseas. Brodie Loy won't be able to claim his full 3kg allowance but the horse will still carry just 52kg.
Roughie
The Bees Knees (Doomben Race 2 No. 7) is another who has attracted early market support ($67 into $34) and his debut win at Ipswich was full of merit. He was slow out of the machine but managed to recover before racing away to score a one and a half length win. Luke Tarrant rode him on debut and stays solid. He has a wide barrier though so I hope the jockey takes a bit more care getting across than he did last week.
Roughie
The Bees Knees (Doomben Race 2 No. 7) is another who has attracted early market support ($67 into $34) and his debut win at Ipswich was full of merit. He was slow out of the machine but managed to recover before racing away to score a one and a half length win. Luke Tarrant rode him on debut and stays solid. He has a wide barrier though so I hope the jockey takes a bit more care getting across than he did last week.
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