The last G1 of the 2014/15 racing season and the first ever run at the Gold Coast track.
We'll be looking at rain affected surfaces down the East Coast this weekend after quite a bit of wet weather during the week.
We'll be looking at rain affected surfaces down the East Coast this weekend after quite a bit of wet weather during the week.
Who's hot?
Liam Birchley has had six winners in the last 12 days from just 14 runners including a double at Ipswich last weekend from just the three starters.
He has four runners at the Gold Coast tomorrow - Elusive Catch (Race 2 No. 10), Sugar Hit (Race 3 No. 11), Pop 'n' Scotch (Race 6 No. 9) and Time To Plunder (Race 8 No. 11).
Gold Coast
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a shower. ***
Tatt's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, fillies and mares w-f-a)
*** Vergara is an early scratching ***
Najoom is favourite but is also second emergency so she needs at least two horses above her to be scratched just to get to the barrier so I'm leaving her out of my selections but clearly she comes into calculations if she gets a run. Seven career starts for five wins and two seconds and she's had three starts at 1300m-1400m for three wins by a combined margin of 11+ lengths. Won on a slow track two starts back when she gapped them in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas and then bolted in again in the G3 Fred Best Classic at Doomben last start. Has had a minor setback.
Srikandi won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below) at her last start but she could do it tough here from the extreme outside barrier. She may get across though because there doesn't appear to be a stack of early pace here and despite one blemish she is a pretty dynamic horse out of the barrier. She's also back to fillies and mares grade here and at w-f-a too and she has shown an affinity for this Gold Coast circuit. She might simply be better than them - much like Smokin' Joey was in last week's Listed Eye Liner Stakes.
Lumosty started favourite (above) when tenth behind Srikandi last time out but it may pay to overlook the run because she drew wide and got caught deep when the pace slackened down the back straight. She loomed on straightening but just ran out of puff late as you would expect after her torrid run. Back in grade here she can be highly competitive and her two wins prior to her last start failure were explosive. A wet track is no concern because she won her maiden on Slow 6 by nine lengths.
Catkins is chasing her first G1 win at her eighth attempt. She was fourth (below) in this race last year and hasn't missed a top three finish in 10 subsequent runs including a third in the G1 Myer Classic and seconds in both the G1 Canterbury Stakes and G1 Queen Of The Turf. Trainer Chris Waller used this race two years ago to break a similar run of outs for Red Tracer and he is in great touch with 10 feature race wins over the Winter Carnival from eight separate horses. She's drawn to get a good run, can sit handy to the speed, she handles all surfaces and like her stablemate Danchai last week she has a sense of timing.
Avoid Lightning was a good third (above) in this race last year and she has seven wins and two seconds from 10 starts on wet tracks. She was brave last start under the 60kg when just nabbed late and the inside barrier is a plus. No wins beyond 1200m but she will appreciate the weight relief. She's an 11 time winner - of this lot only Catkins (15) has won more races. She's ultra-consistent with five wins and four placings from her last 11 runs. Given all the rain they've had and the threat of even more showers she could be the "omen" tip.
Of the ones listed at double figure odds Hazard beat Catkins last start and apart from a luckless second-up run she's won her other four starts this prep. Real Surreal is on the seven day back-up after her barnstorming win at Ipswich last Saturday and her only start here resulted in a win in the Magic Millions. Solicit looks like getting a lovely run from a good barrier and after two good runs with big weights for Gerald Ryan she'll appreciate the w-f-a conditions. Politeness has been below par at her last two starts but her two runs prior to that were good and she is capable on her day. Rose Of Choice has had two runs back now and is ready to peak and she's been solid if not spectacular in both. Peron has been desperately unlucky at her last few starts and she's fared poorly in the barrier draw here but she could bob up without surprising. Dublin Lass is in winning form and so is the stable but this is her biggest test to date. Peggy Jean isn't the worst and Bound For Earth is a rough place hope too.
A top field and a wide open race. A fitting G1 finale.
Locky's SelectionsCatkins is chasing her first G1 win at her eighth attempt. She was fourth (below) in this race last year and hasn't missed a top three finish in 10 subsequent runs including a third in the G1 Myer Classic and seconds in both the G1 Canterbury Stakes and G1 Queen Of The Turf. Trainer Chris Waller used this race two years ago to break a similar run of outs for Red Tracer and he is in great touch with 10 feature race wins over the Winter Carnival from eight separate horses. She's drawn to get a good run, can sit handy to the speed, she handles all surfaces and like her stablemate Danchai last week she has a sense of timing.
Avoid Lightning was a good third (above) in this race last year and she has seven wins and two seconds from 10 starts on wet tracks. She was brave last start under the 60kg when just nabbed late and the inside barrier is a plus. No wins beyond 1200m but she will appreciate the weight relief. She's an 11 time winner - of this lot only Catkins (15) has won more races. She's ultra-consistent with five wins and four placings from her last 11 runs. Given all the rain they've had and the threat of even more showers she could be the "omen" tip.
Of the ones listed at double figure odds Hazard beat Catkins last start and apart from a luckless second-up run she's won her other four starts this prep. Real Surreal is on the seven day back-up after her barnstorming win at Ipswich last Saturday and her only start here resulted in a win in the Magic Millions. Solicit looks like getting a lovely run from a good barrier and after two good runs with big weights for Gerald Ryan she'll appreciate the w-f-a conditions. Politeness has been below par at her last two starts but her two runs prior to that were good and she is capable on her day. Rose Of Choice has had two runs back now and is ready to peak and she's been solid if not spectacular in both. Peron has been desperately unlucky at her last few starts and she's fared poorly in the barrier draw here but she could bob up without surprising. Dublin Lass is in winning form and so is the stable but this is her biggest test to date. Peggy Jean isn't the worst and Bound For Earth is a rough place hope too.
A top field and a wide open race. A fitting G1 finale.
4 Catkins
6 Avoid Lightning
1 Srikandi
7 Solicit
6 Avoid Lightning
1 Srikandi
7 Solicit
Other Races
Alcohol (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 3) is making the journey over from his Morphetville base and trainer Richard Jolly doesn't do that often and it's usually a fair indicator that they are ready to rumble. His 1600m record is good (5:2-0-2) and he's previously won here at the Moonee Valley mile and he's looking for that trip now after two runs at the 1200m.
Blue Blood
Lucky Lago (Gold Coast Race 5 No. 6) is by super sire and G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner Encosta De Lago out of G1 Australian Oaks winner Dizelle. Good barrier. Well weighted. Jockey fresh off a win in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Stable has won five Black Type races during the Winter Carnival so far from limited numbers. Subject of early support. Has been chasing home the flying Strawberry Boy at her last two starts. This is easier.
Well Backed
Dothraki (Gold Coast Race 8 No. 3) went up $6.50 but that was quickly gone and he's now a solid second favourite at $4.40. Forget he even went around last start because he drew a horrible gate. His second-up record makes good reading. Hoop Damian Browne had a winning treble at Ipswich last weekend and at the risk of sounding like a broken record this Snowden mob go OK.
Roughie
Georgey Aeroplane (Randwick Race 8 No. 10) has good wet track form and the track in Sydney could be bottomless by the time we get to the last. I liked the way he attacked the line last time out when resuming and clearly someone else did too because he's $12 into $9 but I think we still might get double figure odds on the day.
Roughie
Georgey Aeroplane (Randwick Race 8 No. 10) has good wet track form and the track in Sydney could be bottomless by the time we get to the last. I liked the way he attacked the line last time out when resuming and clearly someone else did too because he's $12 into $9 but I think we still might get double figure odds on the day.
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