A cracking days racing nationwide tomorrow with the G1 Goodwood in Adelaide, a stand alone meeting at Scone highlighted by the G3 Dark Jewel Classic (plus four other Listed races), a stand alone meeting at the Sunshine Coast for the G3 Sunshine Coast Guineas (plus four other Listed races) and later in the day the G3 Roma Cup from Belmont in WA.
Apologies for not posting last week as advertised but I was in WA. I had every intention of doing a blog anyway but the weather was fantastic and the fish were biting!
The Morphettville track has copped 15mm of rain in the last week but none since Monday so we should be racing on an improving surface.
Apologies for not posting last week as advertised but I was in WA. I had every intention of doing a blog anyway but the weather was fantastic and the fish were biting!
The Morphettville track has copped 15mm of rain in the last week but none since Monday so we should be racing on an improving surface.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Damian Browne has had just 15 rides over the last three weeks but has bagged five winners including a staggering four from just five rides in one afternoon right here a fortnight ago. He won the Sunshine Coast Jockey's Premiership last year so it would appear he knows the track well.
He has five rides tomorrow at the venue in question but the bookies rate his best chances as Index Linked (Race 6 No. 1) and Diamond Oasis (Race 8 No. 5).
Morphettville
*** As of 3.30pm this afternoon the track was rated a Slow 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, 3-y-o and up set weights plus penalties)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Flamberge: Of the eight winners of this race since it moved to set weights and penalties in 2007 four have paid $30 or more. Six carried 55.5kg or more. None were trained locally.
"The Speed Map" says - Lord of the Sky and Tudor probably try to get across to the lead from their wide gates. Thermal Current and Gregers to kick-up and take advantage of their good barriers. Can't imagine Riziz will be too far away either. Lucky Hussler, Flamberge, Daytona Grey, Politeness, Yesterday's Songs and Vain Queen have drawn poorly and they all tend to go back so I can't see them being bustled out of the machine. Hucklebuck, Smokin Joey', Black Heart Bart, Under The Louvre and It Is Written look like they'll get good runs. Ditto Light It Up.
Black Heart Bart has been the best backed in early markets and he really seems to have matured since turning four. He had eight starts during his 3-y-o season that yielded no wins and five placings but since resuming last October he's bagged seven wins and two seconds from 10 outings. In fact he's won six of his last seven and his last four in a row. In races up to 1400m he has only missed the quinella once in 12 starts and that was on debut. This is the biggest challenge of his career and the Sandgropers have been going great guns in Adelaide of late.
Hucklebuck is first-up since his win in the G1 Emirates Stakes (below) at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival. He's won three from four fresh and two of those were at this track and distance. He's putting together an imposing record with eight wins and two placings from just the 13 starts but he'll have to defy history because no horse has won this race fresh in the last 50 years. The 58.5kg impost will test him but I can see him getting a saloon passage in transit from the inside draw.
Lucky Hussler was just pipped by Hucklebuck (above) in the Spring but he subsequently picked up the G1 William Reid Stakes when resuming at Moonee Valley six weeks ago. It was a dominant win and he followed it up with a sound one and a quarter length six to Dissident (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes. The wet track, a torrid wide run without cover and a slow tempo were against him that day but he can bounce back on a drying surface. The big weight and the double figure barrier are the concerns.
Under The Louvre just missed first-up in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) before winning the Listed Hareeba Stakes at Mornington with a leg in the air. He was probably a bit stiff last start when he ran into traffic and he has not missed a top three finish in his last nine outings. Dropping back from the 1400m to 1200m but he has had 10 goes at the trip for six wins and three placings. He's a young horse on the way up and he gets in well at the weights and he can be a lot closer in the running tomorrow from barrier five.
Vain Queen is another who has attracted early market support and she has been competitive at the top level her last three starts finishing roughly about a length and a half off the winner in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (above), G1 William Reid Stakes and G1 Sangster Stakes. Having said that I thought Politeness went to the line better than her in the latter race (below) and she does meet her a half kilo worse off but on the upside she meets Under The Louvre three kilos better off than in the Oakleigh Plate and Lucky Hussler 2.5kg better off than in the G1 William Reid Stakes.
Of the others Lord of the Sky was just nabbed by the highly rated Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes but he has blown like a westerly in early betting. Is this an afterthought? Riziz is a six-time winner here at Morphettville including five at this distance and he hasn't missed a top two finish in four runs this prep. He ran third in this race last year at $26 with 55.5kg. Gregers is ultra-consistent and she finished well ahead of Vain Queen last start and yet will probably start five points longer in the betting? She's drawn to get a gun run too. Three starts here at Morphettville for a second and a third in the last two G1 Sangster Stakes and a fourth in last year's G1 Goodwood. Thermal Current snapped an 11 run winless streak last start and he's drawn well and can race close to the lead. That means jockey Ben Melham won't need much luck and he has steered home the last two winners of this race. Politeness stormed home from a long way back in a leader dominated race last start and gets some weight relief here. Trainer Robert Smerdon has won this race twice before. Smokin' Joey won this race last year.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Lord of the Sky and Tudor probably try to get across to the lead from their wide gates. Thermal Current and Gregers to kick-up and take advantage of their good barriers. Can't imagine Riziz will be too far away either. Lucky Hussler, Flamberge, Daytona Grey, Politeness, Yesterday's Songs and Vain Queen have drawn poorly and they all tend to go back so I can't see them being bustled out of the machine. Hucklebuck, Smokin Joey', Black Heart Bart, Under The Louvre and It Is Written look like they'll get good runs. Ditto Light It Up.
Black Heart Bart has been the best backed in early markets and he really seems to have matured since turning four. He had eight starts during his 3-y-o season that yielded no wins and five placings but since resuming last October he's bagged seven wins and two seconds from 10 outings. In fact he's won six of his last seven and his last four in a row. In races up to 1400m he has only missed the quinella once in 12 starts and that was on debut. This is the biggest challenge of his career and the Sandgropers have been going great guns in Adelaide of late.
Hucklebuck is first-up since his win in the G1 Emirates Stakes (below) at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival. He's won three from four fresh and two of those were at this track and distance. He's putting together an imposing record with eight wins and two placings from just the 13 starts but he'll have to defy history because no horse has won this race fresh in the last 50 years. The 58.5kg impost will test him but I can see him getting a saloon passage in transit from the inside draw.
Lucky Hussler was just pipped by Hucklebuck (above) in the Spring but he subsequently picked up the G1 William Reid Stakes when resuming at Moonee Valley six weeks ago. It was a dominant win and he followed it up with a sound one and a quarter length six to Dissident (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes. The wet track, a torrid wide run without cover and a slow tempo were against him that day but he can bounce back on a drying surface. The big weight and the double figure barrier are the concerns.
Under The Louvre just missed first-up in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) before winning the Listed Hareeba Stakes at Mornington with a leg in the air. He was probably a bit stiff last start when he ran into traffic and he has not missed a top three finish in his last nine outings. Dropping back from the 1400m to 1200m but he has had 10 goes at the trip for six wins and three placings. He's a young horse on the way up and he gets in well at the weights and he can be a lot closer in the running tomorrow from barrier five.
Vain Queen is another who has attracted early market support and she has been competitive at the top level her last three starts finishing roughly about a length and a half off the winner in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (above), G1 William Reid Stakes and G1 Sangster Stakes. Having said that I thought Politeness went to the line better than her in the latter race (below) and she does meet her a half kilo worse off but on the upside she meets Under The Louvre three kilos better off than in the Oakleigh Plate and Lucky Hussler 2.5kg better off than in the G1 William Reid Stakes.
Locky's Selections
10 Under The Louvre
1 Hucklebuck
2 Lucky Hussler
12 Gregers
1 Hucklebuck
2 Lucky Hussler
12 Gregers
Other bets
Merion (Sunshine Coast Race 5 No. 1) has been chasing home the likes of Wandjina, Hauraki and Hi World at his last three starts so he'll find this much easier. Trainer Mike Moroney won this race in 2011 with Shenzou Steeds and he is no stranger to Winter Carnival success having previously claimed a Queensland Cup, an Ipswich Cup and a Caloundra Cup. As previously mentioned hoop Damian Browne rides this circuit well. Opened $8.00.
Brettan (Scone Race 5 No. 12) is unbeaten fresh and he'll be in this for a long way given his usual pattern of racing near the lead and his good draw. Trainer Anthony Cummings had a day out at the corresponding meeting two years ago combining with Peter Robl for a winning treble and he always seems to target this day and come away with a nice race. Opened $12.00.
Dothraki (Scone Race 8 No. 2) sees Blake Shinn and Team Snowden combine again following their treble at Doomben last weekend. In five runs last campaign this bloke didn't miss a place for former trainer Gerald Ryan including two seconds to the talented Our Boy Malachi and two narrow defeats with big weights. The Triple Crown Syndications galloper is having his first start for the new stable (just like G1 BTC Cup winner Hot Snitzel last week) and he has only missed a place twice in his last 13 starts. Opened $7.00.
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