It's taken a lot of baby oil and some tender massage from Chris Waller to get over the low blow bookies dealt me last weekend but I'm ready to go again and make some more ballsy calls this week.
We'll be racing on a much better surface tomorrow although there will still be some give in the ground and the rail is out eight metres for the majority of the circuit so it may pay to watch the first couple of races and assess if the fence is the place to be as it was last weekend.
I think it will be. My selections are based around this. I hope I'm right!
We'll be racing on a much better surface tomorrow although there will still be some give in the ground and the rail is out eight metres for the majority of the circuit so it may pay to watch the first couple of races and assess if the fence is the place to be as it was last weekend.
I think it will be. My selections are based around this. I hope I'm right!
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Tony Gollan trained four winners at Doomben last Saturday then had another winner on Sunday at the Sunshine Coast and again at the same track on Wednesday.
His best chance at Doomben tomorrow looks to be Trakstar (Race 3 No. 5) and he could bag the quinella with the former Peter Gelagotis trained galloper Hvasstan (Race 6 No. 1) and Tornado Miss (Race 6 No. 11).
Randwick
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*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of late rain. ***
The All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: The last winner to pay double figure odds was El Mirada ($31) in 2001. Six of the last nine favourites were successful.
"The Speed Map" says - I think Wandjina will try to cross and lead from out wide. The other three-year-olds Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick have drawn well and could take advantage of that. Laser Hawk is always up near the lead. So too Dissident. Chautauqua and Terravista may not get as far back as usual given it is 1400m. I expect the rest will drift back.
Chautauqua comes off victory (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. He overcame a track that was favouring on pace horses to sweep from the back of the field in testing conditions. It was the run of a serious animal. He has won previously over the 1400m in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas. Coincidentally that was his fourth run last Autumn. There's a lot to like about this bloke - he handles wet or dry, he can do it on a straight track or around a bend, he can win in Sydney and in Melbourne and he hasn't missed a top two finish in his last six starts. He looks the testing material.
Terravista was third behind Chautauqua (above) last start and he appeared to have every possible chance. Interestingly his form up to 1200m reads 10:7-0-2 but his form beyond 1200m reads 5:2-1-0 and one of those wins was at 1300m. Having said that he is looking like a horse who wants the 1400m now. My concern is that his only win over the trip came here in November 2013 in a BM85. I'm risking him but that's good news if you like him because it seems everything I tip then jump off comes out and wins - Kermadec, Chautauqua, Grand Marshal, the list goes on.
Wandjina has had a freshen up since his gutsy win (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas in early March. G1 Doncaster Mile winner Kermadec chased him home that day but granted he didn't have a lot of luck. Prior to that this fella won the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes over this trip at his first run since finishing a game tenth (beaten just three and a half lengths) in the G1 Cox Plate last October when he clearly didn't see out the trip. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times and Damien Oliver has won it twice. Two of the last three winners of this race were 3-y-o's but only one other juvenile has won since Flying Spur in 1996.
Good race. Tough race. I've had to leave some quality horses out of my selections but I can only tip four!
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - I think Wandjina will try to cross and lead from out wide. The other three-year-olds Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick have drawn well and could take advantage of that. Laser Hawk is always up near the lead. So too Dissident. Chautauqua and Terravista may not get as far back as usual given it is 1400m. I expect the rest will drift back.
Chautauqua comes off victory (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. He overcame a track that was favouring on pace horses to sweep from the back of the field in testing conditions. It was the run of a serious animal. He has won previously over the 1400m in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas. Coincidentally that was his fourth run last Autumn. There's a lot to like about this bloke - he handles wet or dry, he can do it on a straight track or around a bend, he can win in Sydney and in Melbourne and he hasn't missed a top two finish in his last six starts. He looks the testing material.
Terravista was third behind Chautauqua (above) last start and he appeared to have every possible chance. Interestingly his form up to 1200m reads 10:7-0-2 but his form beyond 1200m reads 5:2-1-0 and one of those wins was at 1300m. Having said that he is looking like a horse who wants the 1400m now. My concern is that his only win over the trip came here in November 2013 in a BM85. I'm risking him but that's good news if you like him because it seems everything I tip then jump off comes out and wins - Kermadec, Chautauqua, Grand Marshal, the list goes on.
Lucky Hussler was a dominant winner of the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley three weeks ago. The third horse Griante ran a great race here last weekend when a narrow second to the superior wet tracker Avoid Lightning in the G2 Sapphire Stakes. He put paid to them in a twinkling on that occasion just as he did last Spring (below) in the G3 Moonga Stakes over this distance on Caulfield Cup Day. He's been a revelation since transferring to the Darren Weir stable with two wins and four placings from six starts. I haven't been able to find a spot for him in my top four but he terrifies me.
Wandjina has had a freshen up since his gutsy win (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas in early March. G1 Doncaster Mile winner Kermadec chased him home that day but granted he didn't have a lot of luck. Prior to that this fella won the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes over this trip at his first run since finishing a game tenth (beaten just three and a half lengths) in the G1 Cox Plate last October when he clearly didn't see out the trip. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times and Damien Oliver has won it twice. Two of the last three winners of this race were 3-y-o's but only one other juvenile has won since Flying Spur in 1996.
Shooting To Win (below) comes out of the G1 George Ryder Stakes which is turning out to be the form race of the Autumn. Between them the four horses that beat him home have run 1-2-3 in the G1 Doncaster Mile and won the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He pulled up after that race with back soreness so the Snowden's elected to bypass the G1 Doncaster Mile. He's since had a barrier trial and the stable is pressing on so that's a good sign. He's a G1 Caulfield Guineas winning colt so I can't imagine they'd be risking his record (and potential stud value) unless he was a genuine winning chance. He's not here for the exercise.
Dissident can't be left out of calculations going on his win (below) in the G1 Orr Stakes just two starts back. G1 Sydney Cup winning jockey Jimmy Cassidy jumps back on board for the first time since steering him to two wins and a second from four rides last Autumn including the G1 Randwick Guineas. He should be able to give him the gun run from barrier six and the Moody stable has enjoyed Black Type success already this Autumn with Plucky Belle and Hi World. He's had six starts at 1400m and has never missed a place and he's a four time G1 winner including two at this trip and yet they're still betting double figure odds.
Scissor Kick hasn't raced for eight weeks and he does seem to produce his best runs fresh. He's had two goes at 1400m for a narrow second (below) to Hallowed Crown in the G1 Golden Rose after being wide throughout and a one and a half length fifth to the same horse in the G2 Hobartville Stakes two months ago. He didn't have a lot of luck that day either but was still just behind the likes of Kermadec and Shooting To Win. The stable accepted for the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint last weekend but scratched to target this instead and he's unbeaten here at Randwick.
A quick look at the rest who are all $26+.
Fontelina was good from the back of the field when fourth behind Chautauqua and Terravista last start (see video above) and he always seems to run a good race third run in to his preparation. A dry track would be a plus. Laser Hawk broke through for his first win in three years when he claimed the G3 Newcastle Newmarket last start. This is much harder but he has trialled really well since alongside Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick and he looked hard held. Weary is racing like a tired horse. Generalife will probably find this too tough and his best form has been at Rosehill and not at G1 w-f-a. Lucky Hussler gave him weight during the Spring and crushed him. Famous Seamus does not appreciate wet tracks and has just two placings from seven attempts at 1400m. He also has to overcome a horror barrier. Rebel Dane finished a three and a half length fifth in this race 12 months ago and hasn't won for 18 months. He's had three placings in 11 subsequent runs. Barrier eight won't be much help to him either.Dissident can't be left out of calculations going on his win (below) in the G1 Orr Stakes just two starts back. G1 Sydney Cup winning jockey Jimmy Cassidy jumps back on board for the first time since steering him to two wins and a second from four rides last Autumn including the G1 Randwick Guineas. He should be able to give him the gun run from barrier six and the Moody stable has enjoyed Black Type success already this Autumn with Plucky Belle and Hi World. He's had six starts at 1400m and has never missed a place and he's a four time G1 winner including two at this trip and yet they're still betting double figure odds.
A quick look at the rest who are all $26+.
Good race. Tough race. I've had to leave some quality horses out of my selections but I can only tip four!
Locky's Selections
11 Shooting To Win
1 Chautauqua
2 Dissident
13 Scissor Kick
1 Chautauqua
2 Dissident
13 Scissor Kick
Other bets
Press Report (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) will appreciate a big drop in class here after contesting the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes last start behind Chautauqua, Terravista etc. and prior to that she did win against the boys and the older horses. In fairness it was a fairly weak race but apart from it her last six runs have been at G1 or G2 level. From the good draw she can be close to the speed and if the rain holds off she looks well weighted on the minimum of 54kg. Opened $11.00.
Tarquin (Randwick Race 4 No. 4) is in a stable that is making a habit of winning these Autumn 2-y-o features. His run in the G1 Sires Produce (below) was full of merit given he was wide with no cover for most of the race and only tired late. Tomorrow he draws a good barrier and gets a better surface. Prior to that he was unbeaten. Stretching to 1600m should be no concern because his sire was placed in a G1 Kentucky Derby and his dam is a full sister to champion stayer Fantastic Light. Jockey James MacDonald could win on a rocking horse at the moment. Opened $6.00.
Malice (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) will appreciate the firming track conditions and he has won two from three second-up. He should get a lovely trail here from barrier six and he has a win and a third from two goes at the 2000m. This time last year he was a just over a length behind Arabian Gold in the G3 Frank Packer Plate over this course and distance. His fresh run when second in the G3 Doncaster Prelude was good and he easily accounted for Leebaz on that occasion and can only take improvement from the run. Opened $4.80.
Fast 'n' Rocking (Randwick Race 7 No. 4) drops back from the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes to a race that is much easier He was also nominated for the G1 All Aged Stakes but trainers Hayes and Dabernig elected for the softer option. The stable is on fire having claimed the G1 Queen Elizabeth with Criterion last weekend. He's stormed home and been close up in both the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and the G1 Galaxy this campaign and I think he can break through here at good odds in a wide open race. Opened $13.00.
Burbero (Randwick Race 8 No. 2) comes via that red hot G1 George Ryder Stakes mentioned above in relation to Shooting To Win. That was the only time in his last nine starts he's missed the quinella but a two and a half length sixth behind the likes of Real Impact, Criterion and Kermadec reads well for a race like this. His big weight is offset by the claim for the apprentice and Brodie Loy has four wins and three seconds from his last seven rides on the horse. Opened $5.50.
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