Mongolian Khan got me the chocolates last weekend at $6.50 in the G1 ATC Derby when he simply outstayed some more fancied rivals. Thank God for him or I would have been singing for my supper.
This week I'll be looking for horses that can race handy to the speed because that was the pattern on the wet track last week, the rail at Randwick is out six metres and we're on a five day back-up on a track that has a history of serious problems when it is rain affected.
Given last week's results I'll also be looking for value and avoiding hotpots.
This week I'll be looking for horses that can race handy to the speed because that was the pattern on the wet track last week, the rail at Randwick is out six metres and we're on a five day back-up on a track that has a history of serious problems when it is rain affected.
Given last week's results I'll also be looking for value and avoiding hotpots.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Chris Waller isn't exactly hot but he bounced back into the G1 winners circle last weekend when Kermadec claimed the G1 Doncaster Mile. Amazingly that was just his second winner at the highest level since the Spring with the only other being G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau.
It's funny how sometimes a drought breaker like that can lead to the floodgates opening and he looks poised to go on with it at Randwick tomorrow with runners like Winx (Race 6 No. 2), Ballet Suite (Race 6 No. 10), Catkins (Race 7 No. 2), Who Shot Thebarman (Race 8 No. 4) and Adelaide (Race 9 No. 9).
Randwick
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*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** Contributer is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - N/A: The statistics are largely irrelevant for this race because it has not previously attracted this type of field. Prior to the boost in prizemoney it was a much lesser race.
"The Speed Map" says - Fiveandahalfstar to lead Aomen and Tosen Stardom. I expect Beaten Up and Criterion will be handy from inside draws. To The World should settle midfield. Happy Trails, Red Cadeaux and Spillway will get back. The same applies to Adelaide, Royal Descent and Lucia Valentina from their awkward barriers.
No particular order - just trying to keep all the horses with similar form lines together in order to help structure the narrative around the replays!
Tosen Stardom (below) chased home Contributer last start in the G1 Ranvet Stakes and I expect he will take plenty of benefit from his first run on Australian soil. The Japanese horses can never be underestimated however and jockey Tommy Berry has been talking this horse up ever since he first sat on his back and he does boast a win on soft ground. The question is how does a "yielding" track in Japan compare to a genuine slow track in Australia.
Lucia Valentina also contested the G1 Ranvet Stakes two starts back (above) and was the best performed of the local breds behind the aforementioned duo. She followed that with a three length seventh to Hartnell in the G1 BMW. I like the fact that she's had a run over the mile and a half before dropping back to the ten furlongs because it will steel her for a hard run on a slogging track. She's never missed a place at 2000m or on a rain affected track.
Criterion was a narrow second last start (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and that form looks pretty good now because he split the subsequent G1 Doncaster Mile trifecta in Kermadec (3rd), Real Impact (1st) and Royal Descent (4th). His previous run over the unsuitable 1300m of the G1 Canterbury Stakes was also pleasing when he beat all bar Cosmic Endeavour and Catkins. He won the G1 Australian Derby at this track last year on a Heavy 9.
Adelaide (below) can't be dismissed lightly because at his last start he was also first-up and also tackling 2000m and he managed to win the G1 Cox Plate. The run was enormous because he circled the field from last around the tight Moonee Valley turn and left a string of serious racehorses in his wake including some of his rivals here like Happy Trails, Criterion and Royal Descent. The stable thinks he's at his best on top of the ground but his wet track credentials look OK to me. Three wins and a second from four goes at 2000m.
To The World chased home Hartnell (below) in the G1 BMW last start and that horse will start the shortest priced G1 Sydney Cup favourite since Tie The Knot in 1999. His best form is around 1800m-2000m so his effort in that race was good considering he probably just got found out the last little bit and it was his first run since late December so I expect he will strip fitter. Back to 2000m where he has two wins and a second from three runs he should be more effective. He's untried on wet tracks but then again so was Kermadec last week.
Fiveandahalfstar, Beaten Up and Aomen will probably find this too tough although Beaten Up was only a length and a half behind Hartnell and To The World (above) in the G1 BMW so perhaps he has run himself back into some sort of form.
Cracking race.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Fiveandahalfstar to lead Aomen and Tosen Stardom. I expect Beaten Up and Criterion will be handy from inside draws. To The World should settle midfield. Happy Trails, Red Cadeaux and Spillway will get back. The same applies to Adelaide, Royal Descent and Lucia Valentina from their awkward barriers.
No particular order - just trying to keep all the horses with similar form lines together in order to help structure the narrative around the replays!
Tosen Stardom (below) chased home Contributer last start in the G1 Ranvet Stakes and I expect he will take plenty of benefit from his first run on Australian soil. The Japanese horses can never be underestimated however and jockey Tommy Berry has been talking this horse up ever since he first sat on his back and he does boast a win on soft ground. The question is how does a "yielding" track in Japan compare to a genuine slow track in Australia.
Lucia Valentina also contested the G1 Ranvet Stakes two starts back (above) and was the best performed of the local breds behind the aforementioned duo. She followed that with a three length seventh to Hartnell in the G1 BMW. I like the fact that she's had a run over the mile and a half before dropping back to the ten furlongs because it will steel her for a hard run on a slogging track. She's never missed a place at 2000m or on a rain affected track.
Criterion was a narrow second last start (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and that form looks pretty good now because he split the subsequent G1 Doncaster Mile trifecta in Kermadec (3rd), Real Impact (1st) and Royal Descent (4th). His previous run over the unsuitable 1300m of the G1 Canterbury Stakes was also pleasing when he beat all bar Cosmic Endeavour and Catkins. He won the G1 Australian Derby at this track last year on a Heavy 9.
Adelaide (below) can't be dismissed lightly because at his last start he was also first-up and also tackling 2000m and he managed to win the G1 Cox Plate. The run was enormous because he circled the field from last around the tight Moonee Valley turn and left a string of serious racehorses in his wake including some of his rivals here like Happy Trails, Criterion and Royal Descent. The stable thinks he's at his best on top of the ground but his wet track credentials look OK to me. Three wins and a second from four goes at 2000m.
Happy Trails was only three quarters of a length behind Adelaide (above) in that G1 Cox Plate and maybe should have finished closer with a bit more luck. He went OK in the G1 Doncaster Mile on Easter Monday considering he doesn't really handle wet ground but the five day turnaround is a concern. Having said that, seven days after his run behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate last year he won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes so he has shown he can handle a quick back-up.
Spillway beat Happy Trails last start (below) when claiming the G1 Australian Cup. I think 2000m is as far as he wants and given that I'm thinking this is going to race like a 2200m-2400m contest I'm risking him here. He tends to space his victories and his best form is on firm tracks.
Red Cadeaux is another who comes via the G1 Australian Cup (above) and although most thought he would go to the two miles of the G1 Sydney Cup (for which he also accepted) trainer Ed Dunlop has elected to run here. I think the 2000m will be too short (he's never won below 2400m) but he could run into the trifecta because he has placed five times in eight goes at this distance. He'll be strong at the end too if it becomes a slog because it is well documented that he is a three time G1 Melbourne Cup placegetter.
Royal Descent is another like Happy Trails who is backing up after the G1 Doncaster Mile. Her run (below) was full of merit given that she conceded the 3-y-o Kermadec four kilos and was trapped wide throughout. The top five in that race really cleared out from the rest and that is usually a good sign but as I mentioned last week she has not won in 17 starts since the G1 Australian Oaks almost two years ago.
Spillway beat Happy Trails last start (below) when claiming the G1 Australian Cup. I think 2000m is as far as he wants and given that I'm thinking this is going to race like a 2200m-2400m contest I'm risking him here. He tends to space his victories and his best form is on firm tracks.
Red Cadeaux is another who comes via the G1 Australian Cup (above) and although most thought he would go to the two miles of the G1 Sydney Cup (for which he also accepted) trainer Ed Dunlop has elected to run here. I think the 2000m will be too short (he's never won below 2400m) but he could run into the trifecta because he has placed five times in eight goes at this distance. He'll be strong at the end too if it becomes a slog because it is well documented that he is a three time G1 Melbourne Cup placegetter.
Royal Descent is another like Happy Trails who is backing up after the G1 Doncaster Mile. Her run (below) was full of merit given that she conceded the 3-y-o Kermadec four kilos and was trapped wide throughout. The top five in that race really cleared out from the rest and that is usually a good sign but as I mentioned last week she has not won in 17 starts since the G1 Australian Oaks almost two years ago.
To The World chased home Hartnell (below) in the G1 BMW last start and that horse will start the shortest priced G1 Sydney Cup favourite since Tie The Knot in 1999. His best form is around 1800m-2000m so his effort in that race was good considering he probably just got found out the last little bit and it was his first run since late December so I expect he will strip fitter. Back to 2000m where he has two wins and a second from three runs he should be more effective. He's untried on wet tracks but then again so was Kermadec last week.
Fiveandahalfstar, Beaten Up and Aomen will probably find this too tough although Beaten Up was only a length and a half behind Hartnell and To The World (above) in the G1 BMW so perhaps he has run himself back into some sort of form.
Cracking race.
Locky's Selections
10 To The World
11 Tosen Stardom
9 Adelaide
2 Contributer
Current market
*** Red Cadeaux is an early scratching ***
11 Tosen Stardom
9 Adelaide
2 Contributer
Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)
Current market
*** Red Cadeaux is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Protectionist: Seven of the last 11 winners have carried 55kg or more and returned odds of $6.50 or less.
"The Speed Map" says - There are quite a few in here that I think will drift back - Protectionist, Dominant, Who Shot Thebarman, Akzar, Like A Carousel, Renew and Grand Marshal. That means that the tempo could be muddling. If Au Revoir, Big Memory and Don Doremo go forward then Hartnell looks like he'll get the run of the race.
Everything else is big odds including the Hong Kong visitor Dominant but I can't have him because he has no wins beyond 2400m and his wet track form reads poorly. I'm not potting the horse I just don't think he has conditions to suit here. If you're looking for roughies you could do worse than throw Grand Marshal into your exotics. He has won up to 2800m and has wet track form and his effort here on Monday when third behind Tremec in the G2 Chairman's Handicap was gritty if not explosive and six of the last seven winners came via that race. Big Memory has had eight runs beyond 2400m for two wins and four placings and he won't know himself with just 52kg.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - There are quite a few in here that I think will drift back - Protectionist, Dominant, Who Shot Thebarman, Akzar, Like A Carousel, Renew and Grand Marshal. That means that the tempo could be muddling. If Au Revoir, Big Memory and Don Doremo go forward then Hartnell looks like he'll get the run of the race.
Hartnell put the writing on the wall last start (below) with a strong staying display to win the G1 BMW. He easily accounted for the Japanese raider To The World on that occasion and that horse is the favourite for tomorrow's G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He also left Who Shot Thebarman and Protectionist in his wake and he meets both those horses much better at the weights under the handicap conditions. He's had three starts since coming to Australia for two wins and a second to Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. He's won at 3200m and he's a four time winner on affected ground. Hard to knock.
Who Shot Thebarman was the best of the closers (above) in the aforementioned G1 BMW. He made his run with Protectionist and was stronger to the line for mine. He meets that horse 3.5kg better off at the weights too. Having said that he meets Hartnell 2.5kg worse off for being two lengths behind him at the finish. One thing we do know for sure about this bloke is that he will run out a strong two miles going on his third placing (below) in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup.
Protectionist (above) of course won that race and he is crying out for this journey. All his runs so far this prep have been aimed at getting him ready for this and you would have to say that while they haven't been flashy they have been "pass marks". The worry is the weight he will have to concede to his main rivals but the wet track brings him back into it a bit because he revels in soft ground. He's in my top selections but he won't be on top.
Locky's Selections
6 Hartnell
4 Who Shot Thebarman
1 Protectionist
8 Big Memory
Current market
*** Fenway and Adrift are early scratchings ***
1 Protectionist
8 Big Memory
Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Current market
*** Fenway and Adrift are early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Ballet Suite: 14 of the last 18 winners were at single figure odds. 16 finished top five at their previous run but only two of them completed the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes/G1 Australian Oaks double. In the same period only two fillies have completed the G1 VRC Oaks/G1 Australian Oaks double and 13 favourites have been beaten.
"The Speed Map" says - Candelara leads. Rustic Melody handy. Thunder Lady, Savaria and Ballet Suite to drift back from bad barriers. Winx, Gust Of Wind and Wildenstein should go back too. Sweet And Speedy, Wine Tales and Zarzali sit midfield.
Thunder Lady will also eat up the 2400m going on her run (below) when second in the G1 VRC Oaks during the Spring Carnival. She's been patiently handled since and looks to be ticking along nicely towards this judging by her fast finishing third (above) in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. John Sargent is an astute Kiwi trainer who knows how to get fillies ready for these 3-y-o classics having won the 2013 G1 VRC Oaks with Kirramosa and the 2012 G1 Queensland Oaks with Quintessential. She'll get back and have to weave a passage and that may not be the place to be.
Ballet Suite was just behind Thunder Lady in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and was finishing just as well but she also looks as if she will get back in the second half of the field and have to fight her way through the ruck. If that doesn't concern you then she ticks a lot of boxes. She's placed on a slow track, she's a daughter of High Chapparal so the distance shouldn't bother her, prior to last start she'd strung together three wins on end and Coolmore have engaged the services of their top jockey in G1 Cox Plate/G1 Melbourne Cup winning hoop Ryan Moore.
Savaria comes off a win in the G1 NZ Oaks on a soft track and it was very impressive. She was held up for a long way down the straight but when she saw daylight she really let down like a good horse. She won going away in the end and really attacked the line despite the fact that jockey Hayden Tinsley was pretty kind to her the last little bit. The problem is Daffodil (2009) is the only filly in the last 30 years to win this race off a last start run in NZ.
Of the rest I think Rustic Melody is consistent and handled her first go on a wet track well when she fought hard for second in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes behind Candelara. Zarzali is crying out for 2400m but the question is can she run it fast enough?
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Candelara leads. Rustic Melody handy. Thunder Lady, Savaria and Ballet Suite to drift back from bad barriers. Winx, Gust Of Wind and Wildenstein should go back too. Sweet And Speedy, Wine Tales and Zarzali sit midfield.
Winx will start a shorter price here than Thunder Lady and Ballet Suite despite finishing behind them last start (below) in the traditional lead-up race the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. She did cop some interference at a crucial stage in the straight however and was finishing as well as any of them. Prior to that she took on the boys in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes and raced away to win by nearly two lengths from Hauraki. That form is looking pretty good now.
Ballet Suite was just behind Thunder Lady in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and was finishing just as well but she also looks as if she will get back in the second half of the field and have to fight her way through the ruck. If that doesn't concern you then she ticks a lot of boxes. She's placed on a slow track, she's a daughter of High Chapparal so the distance shouldn't bother her, prior to last start she'd strung together three wins on end and Coolmore have engaged the services of their top jockey in G1 Cox Plate/G1 Melbourne Cup winning hoop Ryan Moore.
Savaria comes off a win in the G1 NZ Oaks on a soft track and it was very impressive. She was held up for a long way down the straight but when she saw daylight she really let down like a good horse. She won going away in the end and really attacked the line despite the fact that jockey Hayden Tinsley was pretty kind to her the last little bit. The problem is Daffodil (2009) is the only filly in the last 30 years to win this race off a last start run in NZ.
Candelara is looking to become the fifth filly in 14 years to claim the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes/G1 Australian Oaks double. She has a lot in her favour. She has drawn a great barrier and has the gate speed to make use of it. She's the likely leader on a track that I think will be difficult to make up ground on. Jockey Hugh Bowman is coming off a winning double here last weekend and he has won this race twice previously. This Baker family from NZ does make a habit of coming over here and pinching our coin with their 3-y-o's too - think It's A Dundeel, Lion Tamer, Atlante, Harris Tweed and most recently Mongolian Khan.
Locky's Selections
5 Candelara
4 Savaria
9 Rustic Melody
10 Ballet Suite
4 Savaria
9 Rustic Melody
10 Ballet Suite
Other bets
Catkins (Randwick Race 7 No. 2) is likely to be at a backable price here given the presence of Noble Protector and First Seal. The former is having her first go in Sydney and the latter is a filly I admire but she was found to have blood in one nostril after her last start defeat. I'm going to take them both on and hope that this bonny mare can finally breakthrough for a much deserved G1 victory. She's well in at w-f-a, can race close to the lead, handles affected ground and has a genius in the saddle. Trainer goes OK too. Opened $4.80.
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