The $3M G1 Doncaster Mile. Will favourite Hallowed Crown overcome the extreme outside draw to become the fifth 3-y-o in 10 years to win the race? Or will Pornichet give Gai Waterhouse a record eighth victory?
Maybe it will be another trophy going to Japan if Real Impact can supply James McDonald with his sixth G1 in as many Sydney metro meetings. Let's not discount Kermadec, Royal Descent or Sacred Falls either - the latter two are absolute mudlarks and trainer Chris Waller is looking for his fifth win in the race in eight years.
Sweynesse and It's Somewhat have to be in the mix following last weekend's dominant performance by the Godolphin stable, plus in form mare Suavito with a featherweight and an inside draw. Add noted wet tracker Arabian Gold and we have a cracking race on our hands.
Oh yeah and there are three other Group 1's. I forgot to mention that.
It's wet too.
Maybe it will be another trophy going to Japan if Real Impact can supply James McDonald with his sixth G1 in as many Sydney metro meetings. Let's not discount Kermadec, Royal Descent or Sacred Falls either - the latter two are absolute mudlarks and trainer Chris Waller is looking for his fifth win in the race in eight years.
Sweynesse and It's Somewhat have to be in the mix following last weekend's dominant performance by the Godolphin stable, plus in form mare Suavito with a featherweight and an inside draw. Add noted wet tracker Arabian Gold and we have a cracking race on our hands.
Oh yeah and there are three other Group 1's. I forgot to mention that.
It's wet too.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
It has to be Joao Moreira. He doesn't come down here often but when he does he usually walks away with a winner or two. Last time he was in Australia he claimed the G1 Newmarket Handicap and the Listed MSS Security Stakes at Flemington. On VRC Derby Day he won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and the G3 Lexus Stakes. His last visit to Randwick saw him steer home the winners of the G1 Epsom Handicap, the G2 Roman Consul Stakes and the Listed Dulcify Quality all on the same day.
He has a full book of 10 runners at Randwick tomorrow (barring scratchings) but his best chances look to be Grand Marshal (Race 3 No. 10), Pittsburgh Flyer (Race 5 No. 3), Sweet Idea (Race 8 No. 10), Royal Descent (Race 9 No. 6) and Wine Tales (Race 10 No. 2).
Randwick
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*** As of 4pm yesterday afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for rain. Possibly heavy falls. ***
The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
Current market
*** There are no scratchings at this stage ***
"The Scriptures" say - Royal Descent: In the last 11 years only two winners have paid more than $11 and yet only three favourites have been successful. Eight of them carried 54.5kg or less. Six of them came off a top four finish in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. Four were trained by Chris Waller.
"The Speed Map" says - Should be a truly run race. Ninth Legion will be near the front and I expect Real Impact and Cosmic Endeavour will try to cross from their wide gates. Ditto Hooked and Pornichet. It's Somewhat will be in the first half of the field from barrier four. Pace should be genuine.
Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Sacred Falls, Royal Descent, Cosmic Endeavour, Hallowed Crown, Pornichet, Arabian Gold, Rudy and Plucky Belle.
Jockeys given permission to ride 0.5kg overweight - Dwayne Dunn (53kg), Craig Williams (52kg), Corey Brown (50.5kg) and Sam Clipperton (50.5kg).
Most significant weight drop from last start - Puccini (-7.5kg), Rudy (-7.5kg), Hooked (-7kg), Leebaz (-7kg), It's Somewhat (-6.5kg), Suavito (-6.5kg), Ninth Legion (-6kg)
Hallowed Crown is coming off a placing over 2000m in the G1 Rosehill Guineas just as Sacred Falls did when he won this race two years ago. That was only the second time he has failed to win in eight starts with his only other "failure" being a two and a half length fourth to Brazen Beau in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. His only go at the mile was right here at Randwick two starts ago (below) when he claimed the G1 Randwick Guineas. Some might question that form now but you can only beat what you're up against. Horror barrier but he has a good jockey to offset that.
Kermadec (2E) has been unlucky at both of his previous runs - probably because he was carrying my money and it's well known that I could stop the Bullet Train. He never saw clear running room in the G1 Australian Guineas then bombed the start before flashing home (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. He carries 6kg - 6.5kg less here than he did in those two races but he needs two scratchings just to get a run.
Real Impact impressed in his first run in this country (above) when claiming the G1 George Ryder Stakes. His best form is on firm tracks and he has never won on rain affected ground which is probably why he is the only one of the top fancies to drift ($7.50 out to $9) in early betting. I still can't entirely dismiss him because the Japanese do win a lot when they travel their horses and his aforementioned last start win was dominant. He looks well in with just 55kg too.
Pornichet looked pretty good last Saturday winning the G3 Neville Sellwood Stakes and he clearly hasn't taken any harm from the run because the stable is pressing ahead with the seven day back-up. Three of the last five winners of this race were dropping back from 2000m to 1600m. It's a theory trainer Gai Waterhouse swears by and she has won this race seven times so maybe we should pay attention.
Royal Descent has had five starts here at the Randwick mile for five seconds in the G1 George Main Stakes (twice), a G1 Epsom Handicap, a G2 Chelmsford Stakes and last year's G1 Doncaster Mile (below). Surely she has to be in your quinella? Her career best performance came right here at Randwick two years ago when she won the G1 ATC Oaks by 10 lengths on a Heavy 10. On the downside she hasn't won in 16 subsequent runs but she has managed eight placings in Black Type races in the meantime. Magic man Joao Moreira to ride. Maybe that could be the key to breaking her drought.
Everything else is $15+ and history suggests they rarely win at those odds but a roughie does usually lob into the trifecta and give it a bit of value. Sacred Falls has won the last two of these and loves a wet track. Trainer Chris Waller has won this race four times. Arabian Gold has been well backed and has good wet track form with five wins from six attempts. She's a three time winner here at Randwick and a four time winner over 2000m so she will be strong at the finish. Rudy is a duck so the wetter the better. Luke Tarrant travels down from Brisbane for just the one ride on the program. He drops 7.5kg on his last run and is fourth run in just as he was when he won the G2 Villiers Stakes here over the Randwick mile last December. It's Somewhat didn't like the firm surface last time out and will appreciate the sting out of the ground. He'll also get a better run in transit from barrier four instead of being three wide facing the breeze. He drops 6.5kg on that run. Suavito has won her last four on the trot including a victory over Dissident (below) in the G1 Futurity Stakes. She drops 6.5kg from that run and she won't know herself with just the 50.5kg. Three starts on wet tracks for just one second is a worry.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Should be a truly run race. Ninth Legion will be near the front and I expect Real Impact and Cosmic Endeavour will try to cross from their wide gates. Ditto Hooked and Pornichet. It's Somewhat will be in the first half of the field from barrier four. Pace should be genuine.
Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Sacred Falls, Royal Descent, Cosmic Endeavour, Hallowed Crown, Pornichet, Arabian Gold, Rudy and Plucky Belle.
Jockeys given permission to ride 0.5kg overweight - Dwayne Dunn (53kg), Craig Williams (52kg), Corey Brown (50.5kg) and Sam Clipperton (50.5kg).
Most significant weight drop from last start - Puccini (-7.5kg), Rudy (-7.5kg), Hooked (-7kg), Leebaz (-7kg), It's Somewhat (-6.5kg), Suavito (-6.5kg), Ninth Legion (-6kg)
Hallowed Crown is coming off a placing over 2000m in the G1 Rosehill Guineas just as Sacred Falls did when he won this race two years ago. That was only the second time he has failed to win in eight starts with his only other "failure" being a two and a half length fourth to Brazen Beau in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. His only go at the mile was right here at Randwick two starts ago (below) when he claimed the G1 Randwick Guineas. Some might question that form now but you can only beat what you're up against. Horror barrier but he has a good jockey to offset that.
Kermadec (2E) has been unlucky at both of his previous runs - probably because he was carrying my money and it's well known that I could stop the Bullet Train. He never saw clear running room in the G1 Australian Guineas then bombed the start before flashing home (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. He carries 6kg - 6.5kg less here than he did in those two races but he needs two scratchings just to get a run.
Real Impact impressed in his first run in this country (above) when claiming the G1 George Ryder Stakes. His best form is on firm tracks and he has never won on rain affected ground which is probably why he is the only one of the top fancies to drift ($7.50 out to $9) in early betting. I still can't entirely dismiss him because the Japanese do win a lot when they travel their horses and his aforementioned last start win was dominant. He looks well in with just 55kg too.
Pornichet looked pretty good last Saturday winning the G3 Neville Sellwood Stakes and he clearly hasn't taken any harm from the run because the stable is pressing ahead with the seven day back-up. Three of the last five winners of this race were dropping back from 2000m to 1600m. It's a theory trainer Gai Waterhouse swears by and she has won this race seven times so maybe we should pay attention.
Royal Descent has had five starts here at the Randwick mile for five seconds in the G1 George Main Stakes (twice), a G1 Epsom Handicap, a G2 Chelmsford Stakes and last year's G1 Doncaster Mile (below). Surely she has to be in your quinella? Her career best performance came right here at Randwick two years ago when she won the G1 ATC Oaks by 10 lengths on a Heavy 10. On the downside she hasn't won in 16 subsequent runs but she has managed eight placings in Black Type races in the meantime. Magic man Joao Moreira to ride. Maybe that could be the key to breaking her drought.
Everything else is $15+ and history suggests they rarely win at those odds but a roughie does usually lob into the trifecta and give it a bit of value. Sacred Falls has won the last two of these and loves a wet track. Trainer Chris Waller has won this race four times. Arabian Gold has been well backed and has good wet track form with five wins from six attempts. She's a three time winner here at Randwick and a four time winner over 2000m so she will be strong at the finish. Rudy is a duck so the wetter the better. Luke Tarrant travels down from Brisbane for just the one ride on the program. He drops 7.5kg on his last run and is fourth run in just as he was when he won the G2 Villiers Stakes here over the Randwick mile last December. It's Somewhat didn't like the firm surface last time out and will appreciate the sting out of the ground. He'll also get a better run in transit from barrier four instead of being three wide facing the breeze. He drops 6.5kg on that run. Suavito has won her last four on the trot including a victory over Dissident (below) in the G1 Futurity Stakes. She drops 6.5kg from that run and she won't know herself with just the 50.5kg. Three starts on wet tracks for just one second is a worry.
Locky's Selections
6 Royal Descent
14 Pornichet
10 Hallowed Crown
12 It's Somewhat
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
14 Pornichet
10 Hallowed Crown
12 It's Somewhat
T.J. Smith Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: Five of the last eight winners paid $5.50 or less. Three of the last four favourites have won.
"The Speed Map" says - Tiger Tees bounces onto the fence and Rain Affair and Lord Of The Sky to come across from wider out and join him. Lankan Rupee should lob in a good spot. The outside four - Fontelina, Chautauqua, Terravista and Fast 'n' Rocking - usually go back anyway. Sweet Idea should get a good run just off the speed. Famous Seamus could get buried back in the ruck from the inside gate. Don't know where they go with Press Report. Don't much care either.
Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Lankan Rupee, Terravista, Tiger Tees and Rain Affair
Everything else is $26+ and while one of them might fluke a top four finish I can't warm to any of them on a bog track.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Tiger Tees bounces onto the fence and Rain Affair and Lord Of The Sky to come across from wider out and join him. Lankan Rupee should lob in a good spot. The outside four - Fontelina, Chautauqua, Terravista and Fast 'n' Rocking - usually go back anyway. Sweet Idea should get a good run just off the speed. Famous Seamus could get buried back in the ruck from the inside gate. Don't know where they go with Press Report. Don't much care either.
Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Lankan Rupee, Terravista, Tiger Tees and Rain Affair
Chautauqua ran into trouble behind Brazen Beau (below) when a fast finishing second in the G1 Newmarket Handicap last start but it wouldn't have affected the result. Prior to that he'd won three of his last four and placed second to Terravista at his only other start in the G1 Darley Classic. The concerns are the wet track and the fact that he may be a better horse the Melbourne way of going. He's had four runs in NSW for a win in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas and a second in the Listed Gosford Guineas on a Heavy 10. His only other run in the wet was a four length seventh to Sidestep in the G2 Royal Sovereign Stakes.
Terravista on the other hand handles the wet and is a Randwick specialist. He's unbeaten in four starts here at Headquarters including three at this trip. He has three wins and a second from five wet track appearances and his only failure was when they tried to stretch him to the 1500m of the G1 George Ryder Stakes last year when he was at the end of his campaign. He's won his last three second-up starts and his effort to run third in the G1 Newmarket Handicap (above) was good given no horse has won that race fresh since the First World War.
Lankan Rupee won this race last year (below) in similar atrocious conditions and if you forgive him one bad run in the G1 Newmarket and go back to his dynamic performance in the G1 Lightning Stakes he has to be right in this because he demolished subsequent G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau on that occasion. There were excuses last start because he pulled up with a strained pectoral muscle. How well he has overcome that and just how much it has affected his preparation remains to be seen.
Sweet Idea also contested this race last year (above) and was soundly beaten. She did take it to a new level however at her most recent start when she easily won the G1 Galaxy. This is a must stronger field however and at w-f-a she is only getting two kilos from the big guns. On the plus side she's won three from four here at Randwick including two over the 1200m and she's never missed the quinella second-up. She does have some wet track form too but that is going back to her 2-y-o season. Her two most recent efforts on affected going have been poor.Locky's Selections
2 Terravista
3 Chautauqua
1 Lankan Rupee
10 Sweet Idea
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
3 Chautauqua
10 Sweet Idea
A.T.C. Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Preferment: 10 of the last 14 winners paid $6.50 or less and came via the G1 Rosehill Guineas but only three completed the double.
"The Speed Map" says - Going on last week's run in the G1 BMW it looks as if Hampton Court will lead. Mongolian Khan to be handy and I expect they will be more positive on Ruling Dynasty this week from the better barrier. Preferment showed good tactical spped last start so they may look to go forward from the outside gate. Volkstok'n'barrell, Hauraki, Omeros and Quick Strike the stalkers in behind. Tactics will be crucial here.
Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Volkstok'n'barrell and Mongolian Khan
Hauraki really caught the eye last weekend when he sprinted through and dashed away with the G2 Tulloch Stakes. The problem is that race has produced just two of the last 19 winners of this feature and only one of them completed the double - Stracraft in 2004. Jockey James McDonald is in great touch and he has been an unabashed fan of this horse for some time and he is quite bullish about his chances tomorrow. The final 400m is the query. Many a horse can sprint quickly at the end of ten furlongs but can't run a mile and a half.
Of the rest I think the next best is Ruling Dynasty. He has had a setback with a foot abscess appearing and bursting just as quickly earlier in the week but the stable is pressing on so he must be OK. He got too far back from a wide gate last start behind Hauraki but he hit the line like a dour staying type. He can be closer tomorrow from barrier four. Omeros was good in the same race but he did get a lovely run and this might just be coming a bit too soon for him at just his fourth career start. Quick Strike is crying out for 2400m but the question is can he run it fast enough?
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Going on last week's run in the G1 BMW it looks as if Hampton Court will lead. Mongolian Khan to be handy and I expect they will be more positive on Ruling Dynasty this week from the better barrier. Preferment showed good tactical spped last start so they may look to go forward from the outside gate. Volkstok'n'barrell, Hauraki, Omeros and Quick Strike the stalkers in behind. Tactics will be crucial here.
Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Volkstok'n'barrell and Mongolian Khan
Preferment was just outsprinted when a narrow second to Volkstok'n'barrell (below) in the G1 Rosehill Guineas last start. Having said that I still liked the way he ran through the line. He gives every indication that the step up to 2400m won't trouble him especially given he is already a winner of the G1 VRC Derby in the Spring. The knock is that the last horse to complete the double was Mahogany in 1994. His first three career starts were on wet tracks and while he didn't win any of them he was placed twice and those were run over unsuitable distances ranging from 900m to 1400m.
Volkstok'n'barrell was too good for them (above) in the Rosehill Guineas and his wet weather credentials are terrific. Last September he won the G3 Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie by four and a half lengths on a Slow 8. He has a win and a third (at 1200m) from his only two other starts on affected ground. The last two winners of the G1 Rosehill Guineas have gone on to claim this race but apart from them only two others have completed the double in the last 20 years. He sprinted dynamically to win at 2000m last time but can he produce that at the end of a slogging 2400m on a bog track?
Mongolian Khan won the G1 NZ Derby (below) at this distance two starts back when he simply outstayed Volkstok'n'barrell and he's unbeaten in three starts on wet tracks. Granted he looked a bit flat when fifth in the G1 Rosehill Guineas last start but trainer Murray Baker says he may have needed the run as he gave the horse five days off following his Derby triumph. Baker won this race with Nom Du Jeu in 2008 and again two years ago with It's A Dundeel so he knows what he's talking about. The horse has a great strike rate with six wins from eight starts. He's a winner. I like backing winners. They tend to win.Hauraki really caught the eye last weekend when he sprinted through and dashed away with the G2 Tulloch Stakes. The problem is that race has produced just two of the last 19 winners of this feature and only one of them completed the double - Stracraft in 2004. Jockey James McDonald is in great touch and he has been an unabashed fan of this horse for some time and he is quite bullish about his chances tomorrow. The final 400m is the query. Many a horse can sprint quickly at the end of ten furlongs but can't run a mile and a half.
Locky's Selections
3 Mongolian Khan
1 Preferment
8 Ruling Dynasty
5 Hauraki
1 Preferment
8 Ruling Dynasty
5 Hauraki
Other bets
The Cleaner (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) was only run down late when fourth in the G1 Australian Cup (below) and that was a race where the first three came from well back. Trainer Mick Burles has swapped the blinkers for a visor in the hope that he won't get ambushed but will see them coming instead. I love this bloke because he always gives you a sight and every time you back him you know you're going to be in the thick of it for a long way. Opened $3.30.
Supara (Randwick Race 2 No. 9) ran third in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes at her last start and she was on the heels of current G1 ATC Oaks favourite Winx and subsequent G2 Tulloch Stakes winner Hauraki. That colt will run close to favourite in tomorrow's G1 Australian Derby. Three starts on rain affected tracks for three seconds. Opened $8.50.
Grand Marshal (Randwick Race 3 No. 10) has four runs under his belt now and should be ready to peak. His two best runs last campaign came at his fifth and sixth runs when he won both times. One of those was a 2800m race at Flemington on Cup Day so the 2600m holds no fears. At his only other prep in this country his fifth and sixth-up runs resulted in a win and a second. Opened $7.00.
English (Randwick Race 6 No. 7) was only three quarters of a length behind Vancouver (below) in the G1 Golden Slipper and that colt would be odds-on here. Seven of the last 15 winners of this race (46.7%) were trained by Gai Waterhouse. Tommy Berry has already claimed the first leg of the 2-y-o Triple Crown and I think he can win the second here. Opened $4.40.
Zarzali (Randwick Race 10 No. 10) took on older horses and the boys at her last start and she still smacked them by four lengths. Granted that was a much weaker race than this but she was off a three week break and jumping from 1850m to 2400m at just her fourth career start on a Heavy 8. She's dropping back to 2000m here but has had a five week freshen up and let's face it come Race 10 this could be a real slog fest and she gives the impression that she'll stay all day. Opened $8.50.
Zarzali (Randwick Race 10 No. 10) took on older horses and the boys at her last start and she still smacked them by four lengths. Granted that was a much weaker race than this but she was off a three week break and jumping from 1850m to 2400m at just her fourth career start on a Heavy 8. She's dropping back to 2000m here but has had a five week freshen up and let's face it come Race 10 this could be a real slog fest and she gives the impression that she'll stay all day. Opened $8.50.
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