The third and weakest day of Rosehill's 3-day carnival IMO and somewhat of a let down after last Saturday's bumper card but there are still some good types going around and plenty of winners to be found.
It will be a softish track after the course copped in excess of 35mm of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday but fortunately they have had some good drying weather the last few days so it won't be an absolute bog.
It will be a softish track after the course copped in excess of 35mm of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday but fortunately they have had some good drying weather the last few days so it won't be an absolute bog.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Trainer Mick Kent only has a small team but his strike rate of late has been phenomenal. In the last 19 days he has had 17 runners and has notched seven wins. Last weekend he had three metro runners for one winner (Scratchy Bottom) and two placegetters (Written and Aggregator) and the winners continued at Geelong on Sunday and Pakenham yesterday.
He has two runners at the stand alone Mornington meeting tomorrow - Alittle Loose (Race 4 No. 9) and Epingle (Race 9 No. 7).
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***
The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** Rising Romance is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - N/A: Due to the race dates for the Sydney Carnival changing in recent years due to the inception of "The Championships" the history of this race is somewhat irrelevant. Six of the last seven winners came via the G1 Ranvet Stakes but previously there was a two week break and few will do the seven day back-up here.
"The Speed Map" says - Fast Dragon the leader. Hampton Court could take it up too with the light weight but only if he turns up in the mood to race. Silent Achiever will probably roll forward from her wide barrier. Hartnell should get a good run just off the speed. Ditto Lucia Valentina. The rest will drift back.
To The World is from Japan. That should scare the hell out of you. I know it frightens the living daylights out of me. They travel their horses all over the world and they usually just win. Think Real Impact in last Saturday's G1 George Ryder Stakes. He's had 10 starts for four wins, four seconds and a two and a half length fifth in the G1 Japan Derby. His only failure was when they tried to stretch him to the 3000m of the G1 Japan St Leger. He's never missed the quinella in four first-up runs. At his last start he came off a two month break to run second over 2500m in the G1 Arima Kinen (below) behind Gentildonna - a seven time G1 winner and two time Japanese Horse of the Year.
Hartnell opened $4 but that was quickly snapped up. He's had just the two starts in Australia and was dominant in winning the G3 Sky High Stakes last time out following up on his slashing first-up second behind Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below). You could make an argument that he would have beaten his stablemate had the runs been reversed and that form is arguably the best in the country at the moment. This bloke has won up to 3200m so the journey should present no problem and from the good barrier he should get the run of the race.
Lucia Valentina was tipped here last week and only w-f-a star Contributer and Japanese raider Tosen Stardom beat her home. She was beaten just under a length in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup behind Admire Rakti (below) so she has shown she can be competitive with the international raiders. That was also her fourth run into her campaign. Her only other run at 2400m was an unlucky third in the G1 ATC Oaks last year when she got too far back. Trainer Kris Lees would have been pleased to see the rain during the week because she handles it better than most.
Protectionist is getting up to a trip that suits now after runs in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and the G1 Australian Cup (below). Some people will fret over the outside barrier but given that he's going to drift back it shouldn't be a problem. The 2400m may still be too short for him and I think the G1 Sydney Cup on the bigger course at Randwick in two weeks time will be more his go. Still, it's hard to entirely dismiss the internationals when we get up to these trips because the locals do seem to struggle.
Silent Achiever has been solid if not flashy this prep chasing home the flying Contributer each time. The last two years she has gone into this race at her fourth run for a win last year and a narrow second to Fiveandahalfstar in 2013. Fourth run in last Spring she was a close-up third behind Adelaide in the G1 Cox Plate (below). She has a real sense of timing about her and she has an affinity for Rosehill. Six starts here - all in G1's - for two wins (Ranvet, BMW), a second (BMW), a third (Rosehill Guineas), a fourth (Ranvet) and a fifth (Ranvet).
They represent the top five in the market but of the others although Opinion isn't suited by the w-f-a conditions his only start at the Rosehill 2400m resulted in a second to The Offer in the G3 Manion Cup last year. He was good last start in the G3 Sky High Stakes when he ran past all bar Hartnell. Who Shot Thebarman was good in that race too and he has had seven starts at 2400m or beyond for four wins and a third in a G1 Melbourne Cup. Extra Zero ran out of his skin in the G1 Australian Cup (above) and he is ultra consistent. In his last 18 starts he has only missed a top three finish twice in a sequence that stretches back to February last year. He'll get a good trail from the inside barrier too.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Fast Dragon the leader. Hampton Court could take it up too with the light weight but only if he turns up in the mood to race. Silent Achiever will probably roll forward from her wide barrier. Hartnell should get a good run just off the speed. Ditto Lucia Valentina. The rest will drift back.
To The World is from Japan. That should scare the hell out of you. I know it frightens the living daylights out of me. They travel their horses all over the world and they usually just win. Think Real Impact in last Saturday's G1 George Ryder Stakes. He's had 10 starts for four wins, four seconds and a two and a half length fifth in the G1 Japan Derby. His only failure was when they tried to stretch him to the 3000m of the G1 Japan St Leger. He's never missed the quinella in four first-up runs. At his last start he came off a two month break to run second over 2500m in the G1 Arima Kinen (below) behind Gentildonna - a seven time G1 winner and two time Japanese Horse of the Year.
Hartnell opened $4 but that was quickly snapped up. He's had just the two starts in Australia and was dominant in winning the G3 Sky High Stakes last time out following up on his slashing first-up second behind Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below). You could make an argument that he would have beaten his stablemate had the runs been reversed and that form is arguably the best in the country at the moment. This bloke has won up to 3200m so the journey should present no problem and from the good barrier he should get the run of the race.
Protectionist is getting up to a trip that suits now after runs in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and the G1 Australian Cup (below). Some people will fret over the outside barrier but given that he's going to drift back it shouldn't be a problem. The 2400m may still be too short for him and I think the G1 Sydney Cup on the bigger course at Randwick in two weeks time will be more his go. Still, it's hard to entirely dismiss the internationals when we get up to these trips because the locals do seem to struggle.
Silent Achiever has been solid if not flashy this prep chasing home the flying Contributer each time. The last two years she has gone into this race at her fourth run for a win last year and a narrow second to Fiveandahalfstar in 2013. Fourth run in last Spring she was a close-up third behind Adelaide in the G1 Cox Plate (below). She has a real sense of timing about her and she has an affinity for Rosehill. Six starts here - all in G1's - for two wins (Ranvet, BMW), a second (BMW), a third (Rosehill Guineas), a fourth (Ranvet) and a fifth (Ranvet).
They represent the top five in the market but of the others although Opinion isn't suited by the w-f-a conditions his only start at the Rosehill 2400m resulted in a second to The Offer in the G3 Manion Cup last year. He was good last start in the G3 Sky High Stakes when he ran past all bar Hartnell. Who Shot Thebarman was good in that race too and he has had seven starts at 2400m or beyond for four wins and a third in a G1 Melbourne Cup. Extra Zero ran out of his skin in the G1 Australian Cup (above) and he is ultra consistent. In his last 18 starts he has only missed a top three finish twice in a sequence that stretches back to February last year. He'll get a good trail from the inside barrier too.
Locky's Selections
7 To The World
8 Hartnell
10 Lucia Valentina
4 Opinion
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
8 Hartnell
10 Lucia Valentina
4 Opinion
Moonee Valley (TONIGHT)
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for the chance of a shower tonight. ***
William Reid Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Rebel Dane: Nine of the last 12 winners paid $5.50 or less. Black Caviar is the only female to win in the last seven years.
"The Speed Map" says - I expect Galaxy Pegasus, Earthquake and Vezelay will try to take advantage of their good barriers and light weights. Angelic Light is drawn to get a lovely run here. It Is Written won't be too far away. If the pace is on look for Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus, Bel Sprinter, Vain Queen and Peron to be charging late. But I can't see this being run at breakneck speed so on-pacers look advantaged.
Famous Seamus has had just one start here at Moonee Valley for a third in the G1 Manikato Stakes last October (above) and he was unlucky not to win given he didn't see daylight until it was practically all over. Trainer Noel Mayfield-Smith dodged the big weight and the wide draw in the G1 Galaxy last weekend to come here at w-f-a conditions. He's been well backed early ($21 into $14) and he's my best roughie.
Vain Queen ran on strongly for fourth in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and she meets both Earthquake and It Is Written a kilo better off at the weights for beating them home. She should improve away from Caulfield too because her record there is terrible (5:1-0-0). Her record at other tracks makes much more impressive reading (8:6-0-0) and she's one form one here at the Moonee Valley 1200m. Just don't back her for the place. She either wins or runs fourth.
Earthquake is a very good filly and she's probably paying the price for her outstanding two-year-old season because although her overall record is pretty good (11:5-2-2) you'd have to say her 3-y-o season has been disappointing (6:1-1-2). Her only try against older horses was two starts back in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (above) and it was an average run. She improved last start back to 3-y-o fillies grade with a big weight but she still has to prove she can match it with the big guns.
Of the rest I think the next best is It Is Written because he loves Moonee Valley - seven of his 10 career wins have come here. Three starts back he split Mourinho and Dissident in the G2 Australia Stakes at this track and distance. Peron has ability and was good first-up but the barrier and the pattern look to be against her here.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - I expect Galaxy Pegasus, Earthquake and Vezelay will try to take advantage of their good barriers and light weights. Angelic Light is drawn to get a lovely run here. It Is Written won't be too far away. If the pace is on look for Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus, Bel Sprinter, Vain Queen and Peron to be charging late. But I can't see this being run at breakneck speed so on-pacers look advantaged.
Angelic Light ran really well last Spring over this course in the G1 Manikato Stakes (below) without much luck. She's had seven starts here at the Valley for three wins and three placings including two wins and two seconds from five goes at the 1200m. Her only "miss" was a fourth behind Buffering, Lankan Rupee and Rebel Dane in the G1 Moir Stakes beaten less than a length. Her first-up form is pretty good (4:1-1-2).
Rebel Dane also contested the G1 Manikato Stakes (above) and was another member of the "if only" brigade. The record books will say he ran fourth beaten around a quarter of a length but he was just one of the many hard luck stories. He's had five first-up runs and he won his first three before running second to Lankan Rupee in the G1 T.J.Smith Stakes at his fourth attempt. His most recent first-up run resulted in a half-length third in the G2 Missile Stakes at Randwick last August when he chased home last weekend's G1 Galaxy winner Sweet Idea.
Famous Seamus has had just one start here at Moonee Valley for a third in the G1 Manikato Stakes last October (above) and he was unlucky not to win given he didn't see daylight until it was practically all over. Trainer Noel Mayfield-Smith dodged the big weight and the wide draw in the G1 Galaxy last weekend to come here at w-f-a conditions. He's been well backed early ($21 into $14) and he's my best roughie.
Of the rest I think the next best is It Is Written because he loves Moonee Valley - seven of his 10 career wins have come here. Three starts back he split Mourinho and Dissident in the G2 Australia Stakes at this track and distance. Peron has ability and was good first-up but the barrier and the pattern look to be against her here.
Locky's Selections
7 Angelic Light
2 Famous Seamus
1 Rebel Dane
6 It Is Written
2 Famous Seamus
1 Rebel Dane
6 It Is Written
Other bets
Under The Louvre (Mornington Race 8 No. 3) caught the eye in the G1 Oakleigh Plate when flashing home for second fresh beating home the aforementioned Vain Queen and Earthquake (see video above). He's never missed a place second-up and won his only start here at Mornington over this distance. He hasn't missed a top three finish in his last seven starts. At just two kilos over the minimum he looks thrown in here. Opened $4.40.
San Diego (Rosehill Race 3 No. 7) landed some big bets two starts back when he arrived just in time to score in his first run for more than a year. He followed that up with a fighting third in the G2 Ajax Stakes behind Burbero who franked the form last weekend with a massive effort in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. Opened $5.50.
Ruling Dynasty (Rosehill Race 8 No. 9) has had two starts at 2000m or further and he's won them by a combined margin of almost 10 lengths. It comes as no surprise given his dam is a daughter of a G1 Kentucky Derby/G1 Belmont Stakes winner and his sire Medaglia D'Oro was placed in a G1 Dubai World Cup. That stallion also produced last weekend's G1 Golden Slipper winner Vancouver. He's been brought along patiently by the Cummings team (he didn't have his first race until last December) and he's on a G1 ATC Derby path. He'd want to show something here to warrant pressing on towards that goal. Opened $6.00.
San Diego (Rosehill Race 3 No. 7) landed some big bets two starts back when he arrived just in time to score in his first run for more than a year. He followed that up with a fighting third in the G2 Ajax Stakes behind Burbero who franked the form last weekend with a massive effort in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. Opened $5.50.
Set Square (Rosehill Race 6 No. 2) could be the one to cause an upset if First Seal is off her game. She won the G1 VRC Oaks (below) last prep so the step up to 2000m sees her finally in a distance range that suits. She's one of only two horses in the field to have won at the journey and she chased home Noble Protector last start. That mare split Contributer and Signoff during the Spring and will start odds-on at Moonee Valley tonight. Opened $8.50.
Ruling Dynasty (Rosehill Race 8 No. 9) has had two starts at 2000m or further and he's won them by a combined margin of almost 10 lengths. It comes as no surprise given his dam is a daughter of a G1 Kentucky Derby/G1 Belmont Stakes winner and his sire Medaglia D'Oro was placed in a G1 Dubai World Cup. That stallion also produced last weekend's G1 Golden Slipper winner Vancouver. He's been brought along patiently by the Cummings team (he didn't have his first race until last December) and he's on a G1 ATC Derby path. He'd want to show something here to warrant pressing on towards that goal. Opened $6.00.
Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!
No comments:
Post a Comment