Well I've had some good winners in recent weeks and I'm confident we'll get more tomorrow so get ready to win some more cash!
Thank God my "Who's hot?" duo Lee and Shannon Hope got me the chocolates with Madam Gangster last week because it was an otherwise horrendous day. Danesiri scratched early in the morning, Tommy Berry is still looking for a run on Mihiri and the less said about Kermadec in the G1 Australian Guineas the better.
I did manage to find the First Four in the G1 Randwick Guineas ($25.10) but you didn't have to be a genius to figure that out and I can't really claim having the G1 Canterbury Stakes quinella ($5.00) among my Top 4 either because that was a no-brainer too.
So it's back to the drawing board this week for another massive day of racing with three Group 1 races and 13 other Black Type races across NSW and Victoria.
Thank God my "Who's hot?" duo Lee and Shannon Hope got me the chocolates with Madam Gangster last week because it was an otherwise horrendous day. Danesiri scratched early in the morning, Tommy Berry is still looking for a run on Mihiri and the less said about Kermadec in the G1 Australian Guineas the better.
I did manage to find the First Four in the G1 Randwick Guineas ($25.10) but you didn't have to be a genius to figure that out and I can't really claim having the G1 Canterbury Stakes quinella ($5.00) among my Top 4 either because that was a no-brainer too.
So it's back to the drawing board this week for another massive day of racing with three Group 1 races and 13 other Black Type races across NSW and Victoria.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
It simply has to be Gai Waterhouse. Six winners last Saturday spread across Flemington, Randwick and Newcastle including a two-state Group 1 double. She's also had midweek winners at Hawkesbury, Randwick and Kembla Grange in the last week.
As usual she has quite a few runners tomorrow but her best chance appears to be Supara (Rosehill Race 8 No. 8).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***
Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, open handicap)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee: Eight of the last 11 winners paid $6 or less. Seven of the last nine winners have carried 56kg or more. Three of the last four winners came via the G1 Lightning Stakes.
"The Speed Map" says - Driefontein and Lord Of The Sky to lead them up with Delectation and Lankan Rupee in close attendance. The rest will get back and look to swoop late.
Chautauqua was beaten narrowly over this track and distance in the G1 Darley Classic (below) last November when he was just behind a smart one in Terravista. They easily accounted for the likes of Lankan Rupee, Buffering and a host of other top sprinters and Chautauqua meets Terravista a kilo better off here. He resumed with a gutsy win in the G2 Rubiton Stakes - a race Lankan Rupee won last year en route to winning this race. He has had three starts at the Flemington straight six for two wins and the aforementioned second. Hard to knock.
Lankan Rupee is the reigning Horse of the Year and the reigning Newmarket champion. He has had 13 starts since being gelded for nine wins (including five at G1 level), two seconds and two thirds. The problem is he has to carry an extra two kilos this year and no horse has gone back-to-back in this event for more than 30 years and only four have accomplished the feat in the race's 140 year history. Granted heavyweights have dominated this race in the last decade (think Hay List, Black Caviar, Scenic Blast, Weekend Hustler, Miss Andretti and Takeover Target) but he's going to have to equal the weight carrying record if he is to win.
With these four dominating the betting it is no surprise to see it's $15+ about the rest. Driefontein is ultra consistent and the Waterhouse stable is in great form. Delectation has ability as demonstrated last Spring when he ran second to Brazen Beau in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes but he is a bit of a basket case.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Driefontein and Lord Of The Sky to lead them up with Delectation and Lankan Rupee in close attendance. The rest will get back and look to swoop late.
Chautauqua was beaten narrowly over this track and distance in the G1 Darley Classic (below) last November when he was just behind a smart one in Terravista. They easily accounted for the likes of Lankan Rupee, Buffering and a host of other top sprinters and Chautauqua meets Terravista a kilo better off here. He resumed with a gutsy win in the G2 Rubiton Stakes - a race Lankan Rupee won last year en route to winning this race. He has had three starts at the Flemington straight six for two wins and the aforementioned second. Hard to knock.
Lankan Rupee is the reigning Horse of the Year and the reigning Newmarket champion. He has had 13 starts since being gelded for nine wins (including five at G1 level), two seconds and two thirds. The problem is he has to carry an extra two kilos this year and no horse has gone back-to-back in this event for more than 30 years and only four have accomplished the feat in the race's 140 year history. Granted heavyweights have dominated this race in the last decade (think Hay List, Black Caviar, Scenic Blast, Weekend Hustler, Miss Andretti and Takeover Target) but he's going to have to equal the weight carrying record if he is to win.
Brazen Beau meets Lankan Rupee 3kg better off for his last start defeat in the G1 Lightning Stakes (below) and he was doing his best work late which suggests the step up to 1200m will be appreciated. His biggest success to date came right here in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring. This race has been kind to three-year-olds with eight successful in the last 17 runnings. If they go mad in front he will be the one storming home.
Terravista is unbeaten in four first-up appearances and is four from five at 1200m. You could make an argument he should be undefeated at the trip because his only miss was a half length fifth to Lankan Rupee in the G1 Manikato Stakes (below) in October when he saw more dead ends than a driving instructor.With these four dominating the betting it is no surprise to see it's $15+ about the rest. Driefontein is ultra consistent and the Waterhouse stable is in great form. Delectation has ability as demonstrated last Spring when he ran second to Brazen Beau in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes but he is a bit of a basket case.
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| WARNING : Image may not resemble actual horse |
3 Chautauqua
2 Terravista
1 Lankan Rupee
5 Brazen Beau
Current market
*** .There are no early scratchings ***
2 Terravista
1 Lankan Rupee
5 Brazen Beau
Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** .There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Happy Trails: 16 of the last 19 winners have paid $9 or less. 22 of the 28 winners since the race went to w-f-a conditions in 1987 have finished in the top three at their previous start. 13 of the last 17 winners came via the G2 Peter Young Stakes.
"The Speed Map" says - The Cleaner will lead.
I imagine Greatwood will be close up and so too Mourinho. Au Revoir and Entirely Platinum won't be far away either. The rest to drift back and come late in what is sure to be a truly run race. This will be no place for the faint hearted. If you can't run a strong 2000m you're going to be found out by The Cleaner here.
Spillway is becoming a bit of a money muncher. His two runs at Flemington have been sound but he could manage only fourth place on both occasions in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and the G1 Mackinnon Stakes. He's had 11 starts since coming to Australia for just the one win and a second and the win came on the ANZAC Day long weekend last year. He's talented and he could win but he won't be carrying any of my cash.
Of the others Red Cadeaux will probably find this too short but he is a good Flemington horse with three seconds from four starts here - all in G1 Melbourne Cups! Greatwood got me the coin last start at good odds and the stable is flying. The Cleaner will give a great sight for a long way.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - The Cleaner will lead.
I imagine Greatwood will be close up and so too Mourinho. Au Revoir and Entirely Platinum won't be far away either. The rest to drift back and come late in what is sure to be a truly run race. This will be no place for the faint hearted. If you can't run a strong 2000m you're going to be found out by The Cleaner here.
Happy Trails has won three races here at the Flemington and they were all G1's - the Emirates Stakes, the Turnbull Stakes and the Mackinnon Stakes (below). The latter two were over the 2000m. Not bad. He's had his two runs in now so he'll be ready to peak. Third-up last prep he just missed out to Foreteller when 2nd in the G1 Underwood Stakes.
Protectionist won his only start here at Flemington when he demolished them in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. He will appreciate being back on the bigger track because he didn't seem to handle Caulfield and let's face it the 1800m was always going to be a bit short for him. It may be the same story at 2000m because he strikes me as a 2400m-3200m horse but he's in an Aussie stable now so he could be a bit sharper. Big danger.
Foreteller came through the quicksand on the inside part of the track at Warwick Farm last start in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) so his effort to be beaten a tick over a length and a half was sound. Third run in two years ago he won the G2 Peter Young Stakes, third-up last Spring he won the G1 Underwood Stakes and he was also having his third run when he was a three-quarter length third in this race last year behind Fiorente. He's also won a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes here but his overall Flemington record is average. A must in all exotics.
Akzar is in the money on the back of his good run behind Mourinho and Happy Trails in the G2 Peter Young Stakes. I don't know that one good run at w-f-a necessarily means he is a genuine chance in a G1 Australian Cup though. His biggest win to date was the Listed Warrnambool Cup last May. It's also the last time he won. His last start third was only the second time he's placed in seven subsequent runs.
Protectionist won his only start here at Flemington when he demolished them in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. He will appreciate being back on the bigger track because he didn't seem to handle Caulfield and let's face it the 1800m was always going to be a bit short for him. It may be the same story at 2000m because he strikes me as a 2400m-3200m horse but he's in an Aussie stable now so he could be a bit sharper. Big danger.
Mourinho is flying this time in. He surprised everyone when he won at big odds first-up over 1200m in the G2 Australia Stakes before finishing a gallant third to Dissident in the G1 Orr Stakes. He followed that up with victory in the G2 Peter Young Stakes beating home Happy Trails, Akzar and Spillway who he meets again here and yet you can still get double figure odds. Don't underestimate him.
Foreteller came through the quicksand on the inside part of the track at Warwick Farm last start in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) so his effort to be beaten a tick over a length and a half was sound. Third run in two years ago he won the G2 Peter Young Stakes, third-up last Spring he won the G1 Underwood Stakes and he was also having his third run when he was a three-quarter length third in this race last year behind Fiorente. He's also won a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes here but his overall Flemington record is average. A must in all exotics.
Spillway is becoming a bit of a money muncher. His two runs at Flemington have been sound but he could manage only fourth place on both occasions in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and the G1 Mackinnon Stakes. He's had 11 starts since coming to Australia for just the one win and a second and the win came on the ANZAC Day long weekend last year. He's talented and he could win but he won't be carrying any of my cash.
3 Happy Trails
4 Foreteller
2 Protectionist
6 Mourinho
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
4 Foreteller
2 Protectionist
6 Mourinho
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the slight chance of a shower. ***
Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares quality handicap)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Plucky Belle or Mahara: Only two favourites have won in the last 11 years and one of them was a $6 equal favourite. The other nine winners returned between $7.50 and $21. Seven of them carried 53.5kg or less. 11 of the last 13 winners finished top three at their previous start.
"The Speed Map" says - Tarloshan only knows one way to race and that's straight to the front. Thump will be handy. Amicus will probably lob in a good spot from barrier two and I expect Adrift will be a bit closer than last start. Hera probably the only other one who will really press forward.
First Seal is a filly that I respect. I tipped her last Spring when she won the G1 Flight Stakes (below) and I earmarked her as my G1 Doncaster Handicap horse following her brilliant first-up second over the unsuitable 1200m of the G2 Light Fingers Stakes. That opinion was then confirmed by her dominant win in the G2 Surround Stakes last start. 11 fillies have won this race in the last 30 years and nine of them came via that event. The only concern is the wide barrier and the 55.5kg. However Assertive Lass did carry that weight to victory when she won in 1997 and Bounding Away carried 57.5kg in 1987. Still, it hasn't been done in a long time.
Plucky Belle has had two runs back now and she does seem to be a better horse in the Autumn. Third-up in 2012 she won, third run in in 2013 she won too and at the same stage in her prep last year she ran second in the G3 Darley Crown at Hawkesbury. She has had three runs on wet tracks for two wins and a narrow second to Avoid Lightning in the G3 Birthday Card Stakes. The knock is that the last time she won was the same day Fiorente won the G1 Melbourne Cup.
Tinto is the only other one I could entertain in multiples. Her last nine runs have produced four wins and three placings including victory in the G1 Queensland Oaks (below). She flashed home from last to grab sixth in the G3 Guy Walter Stakes last start over the unsuitable 1400m trip. Her only other miss in the last 10 months was when she took on older horses as a three-year-old filly in the G3 Tatt's Cup when she had come to the end of her preparation.
It's hard to make a case for anything else. Dear Demi has a stack of weight and has contested this race the last two year's running and been thrashed both times. Diamond Drille was a G1 winner last Autumn in fillies and mares grade over the mile but hasn't won a race since. In fact she hasn't finished better than seventh. Amicus doesn't look the same horse who won the G1 Thousand Guineas last Spring and Arabian Gold looked average fresh and her last two second-up runs were poor.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Tarloshan only knows one way to race and that's straight to the front. Thump will be handy. Amicus will probably lob in a good spot from barrier two and I expect Adrift will be a bit closer than last start. Hera probably the only other one who will really press forward.
First Seal is a filly that I respect. I tipped her last Spring when she won the G1 Flight Stakes (below) and I earmarked her as my G1 Doncaster Handicap horse following her brilliant first-up second over the unsuitable 1200m of the G2 Light Fingers Stakes. That opinion was then confirmed by her dominant win in the G2 Surround Stakes last start. 11 fillies have won this race in the last 30 years and nine of them came via that event. The only concern is the wide barrier and the 55.5kg. However Assertive Lass did carry that weight to victory when she won in 1997 and Bounding Away carried 57.5kg in 1987. Still, it hasn't been done in a long time.
Plucky Belle has had two runs back now and she does seem to be a better horse in the Autumn. Third-up in 2012 she won, third run in in 2013 she won too and at the same stage in her prep last year she ran second in the G3 Darley Crown at Hawkesbury. She has had three runs on wet tracks for two wins and a narrow second to Avoid Lightning in the G3 Birthday Card Stakes. The knock is that the last time she won was the same day Fiorente won the G1 Melbourne Cup.
Mahara is having her third run this preparation and third start last campaign she won the G3 Maybe Mahal Stakes at Flemington during Melbourne Cup week. She also won third-up in her previous preparation. With just 52kg and barrier four she should get a glorious run here and look for her to be storming home at the end because that is her racing pattern. She hasn't run a place in two starts here at Rosehill but that may be misleading because they were both unsuitable races. Definite knockout chance.
Thump has failed to run a place in three starts here at Rosehill and has never won beyond 1400m. In fact she has only been tried past 1200m on four occasions and she has missed the placings three times. She doesn't win often so I'm happy to risk her here.
Thump has failed to run a place in three starts here at Rosehill and has never won beyond 1400m. In fact she has only been tried past 1200m on four occasions and she has missed the placings three times. She doesn't win often so I'm happy to risk her here.
Adrift was tipped here last start and was caught wide without cover so it may pay to overlook that run. She should get a much better run in transit here from barrier three. It could also been a case of "second-up syndrome" following her easy first-up win. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times - all with three-year-olds. The stable had quite a few winners last weekend and when that happens come carnival time in Sydney they tend to keep winning more races.
It's hard to make a case for anything else. Dear Demi has a stack of weight and has contested this race the last two year's running and been thrashed both times. Diamond Drille was a G1 winner last Autumn in fillies and mares grade over the mile but hasn't won a race since. In fact she hasn't finished better than seventh. Amicus doesn't look the same horse who won the G1 Thousand Guineas last Spring and Arabian Gold looked average fresh and her last two second-up runs were poor.
4 First Seal
12 Adrift
9 Mahara
3 Tinto
12 Adrift
9 Mahara
3 Tinto
Other bets
Sabatini (Flemington Race 5 No. 2) has come back from her spell in good order with two wins from as many starts this time in. She made rapid progress last Spring graduating from a win in a Bendigo maiden to a placegetter in the G1 Thousand Guineas inside two months. The Hope stable is in good nick at the moment and they did get me the chocolates last weekend so I'm staying solid. Nicholas Hall has ridden this filly four times for three wins and a third. Opened $3.30.
I'm All The Talk (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3) was terrific in the Oakleigh Plate (below). The first three over the line came from 10th or worse on the turn and given they were only 0.55sec off the course record that's a fair sign the speed in front was hectic. This bloke was the bloke doing all that donkey work in front and yet he managed to hang on for sixth beaten just over a length and a half. Last September he split Terravista and Famous Seamus in the G2 The Shorts. Deep Field will be too short to back so I'm looking for some each-way value. Opened $12.00.
I'm All The Talk (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3) was terrific in the Oakleigh Plate (below). The first three over the line came from 10th or worse on the turn and given they were only 0.55sec off the course record that's a fair sign the speed in front was hectic. This bloke was the bloke doing all that donkey work in front and yet he managed to hang on for sixth beaten just over a length and a half. Last September he split Terravista and Famous Seamus in the G2 The Shorts. Deep Field will be too short to back so I'm looking for some each-way value. Opened $12.00.
Hampton Court (Rosehill Race 8 No. 1) is one I'm keen to play on an each-way basis if we get eight runners or more. He is the class horse in the race and at set weights he looks well placed. Obviously he has other, bigger targets further down the track but he can come to hand quickly. Second-up last prep he was a one and three quarter length third at this track and distance on a Heavy 8. That day he chased home Sweynesse and First Seal. They would be odds-on here. Opened $7.00. Better will be available on the day me thinks.
Rudy (Rosehill Race 9 No. 3) went up at a silly price but it was quickly snapped up ($9 into $5) when they got 30mm of rain. He's had eight starts on wet tracks for five wins and a second including a win in the G2 Villiers Stakes. Even Stevie Wonder would have seen his run in the G3 Liverpool City Cup when he flashed home from the rear of the field. He hasn't missed the quinella in his last five starts. Queensland young gun Luke Tarrant comes down for the mount and he's been riding well in Sydney the last fortnight despite limited opportunities on long priced horses. Opened $9.00. Not anymore.
Rudy (Rosehill Race 9 No. 3) went up at a silly price but it was quickly snapped up ($9 into $5) when they got 30mm of rain. He's had eight starts on wet tracks for five wins and a second including a win in the G2 Villiers Stakes. Even Stevie Wonder would have seen his run in the G3 Liverpool City Cup when he flashed home from the rear of the field. He hasn't missed the quinella in his last five starts. Queensland young gun Luke Tarrant comes down for the mount and he's been riding well in Sydney the last fortnight despite limited opportunities on long priced horses. Opened $9.00. Not anymore.
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