The $3.5M G1 Golden Slipper. The richest 2-y-o race in the world. Can Gai Waterhouse win it for a sixth time? Or will it be one the four runners in the royal blue silks of Goldolphin? Perhaps it will be an upset by one of Team Hawkes two entrants or maybe even one of the fillies from the in-form Hayes/Dabernig yard.
The Kiwi 3-y-o's hit our shores looking to take our prizemoney back across the ditch in the G1 Rosehill Guineas but they have to get past a couple of good locals. International raiders from Japan and Hong Kong feature in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and the G1 Ranvet Stakes where five of the seven runners are paying $6 or less.
I haven't even got to the G1 Galaxy yet - can Avoid Lightning give Tim Clark his third win in the race in the last eight years?
An intriguing days racing - and I can't wait !!!
An intriguing days racing - and I can't wait !!!
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
James McDonald had seven rides at Rosehill last weekend for two wins, a second, two thirds, a fourth and a fifth. He's had 10 winners in the last 15 days.
He has a very strong book of rides at Rosehill tomorrow including Brook Road (Race 1 No. 6), Rising Romance (Race 2 No. 1), Contributer (Race 4 No. 1), Sweynesse (Race 5 No. 4), Knoydart (Race 6 No. 7), Exosphere (Race 7 No. 5) and Bagman (Race 9 No. 1).
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the slight chance of a shower. ***
Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** Look To The Stars is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Exosphere: 18 of the last 19 winners paid $13 or less. Only three favourites have won in the last 25 years. Nine of the last 11 winners came from single digit barriers. The last 15 winners all had their last start in Sydney.
"The Speed Map" says - Plenty of on pace types here with Headwater, Furnaces, Haptic, Odyssey Moon, Speak Fondly and especially Haybah. Vancouver probably has to press forward from out there too. The run-on horses who will get the best runs from good draws are Lake Geneva, English, Serenade, Ottoman, Ready for Victory and Exosphere. Reemah, Fireworks and Single Gaze have to ride for luck from out there.
Vancouver is at the top of the market and although the overall record for favourites is bad they have won three of the last seven. There's a lot to like too. He can be up on the pace or take a sit as he has demonstrated. He's unbeaten going into this just like former Waterhouse winners Sebring and Pierro. Tommy Berry is no stranger to the occasion having won two years ago on Overreach. He won the G2 Todman Stakes by more than three lengths and they ran quick time. In the last six years Pierro, Sepoy and Phelan Ready all followed that same path. Barrier 18 is the only worry.
Exosphere is the main danger although you don't see too many Slipper winners coming via Kembla and Warwick Farm. When the emergencies come out he will start from barrier eight which gives James McDonald options. He's won his last two by big margins and it's hard not to be impressed by his four length win in the G2 Skyline Stakes. The last horse to come through that race was Dance Hero in 2004 but he did complete the double. Has the ability to sit off a hot tempo and still produce a blistering finish. The main danger.
English looks the best of the fillies. She's won two from two including a last start win in the G2 Reisling Stakes. That feature has produced four of the last nine winners - Mossfun, Overreach, Forensics and Miss Finland. Gai Waterhouse has won this race five times before. The general consensus is however that the boys are better this year and will dominate just like the fillies did last year when the first boy home was Ghibbelines (8th). One for multiples.
Of the others Furnaces has drawn well and was the first one home behind Vancouver last start. Reemah has a terrible barrier but given her racing pattern it may not be a total disaster. She just missed Pride of Dubai in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (below) and that horse would be single figures here so I can't reconcile the price discrepancy. Lake Geneva was also good in the same race from a similar position and is drawn well here. Ottoman is one who could be steaming home if the leaders go crazy (as they usually do) and set it up for the swoopers. Haptic is unbeaten and drawn to get a cosy run near the lead.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Plenty of on pace types here with Headwater, Furnaces, Haptic, Odyssey Moon, Speak Fondly and especially Haybah. Vancouver probably has to press forward from out there too. The run-on horses who will get the best runs from good draws are Lake Geneva, English, Serenade, Ottoman, Ready for Victory and Exosphere. Reemah, Fireworks and Single Gaze have to ride for luck from out there.
Vancouver is at the top of the market and although the overall record for favourites is bad they have won three of the last seven. There's a lot to like too. He can be up on the pace or take a sit as he has demonstrated. He's unbeaten going into this just like former Waterhouse winners Sebring and Pierro. Tommy Berry is no stranger to the occasion having won two years ago on Overreach. He won the G2 Todman Stakes by more than three lengths and they ran quick time. In the last six years Pierro, Sepoy and Phelan Ready all followed that same path. Barrier 18 is the only worry.
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| Tommy Berry celebrates as Vancouver demolishes them in the G2 Todman Stakes |
Exosphere is the main danger although you don't see too many Slipper winners coming via Kembla and Warwick Farm. When the emergencies come out he will start from barrier eight which gives James McDonald options. He's won his last two by big margins and it's hard not to be impressed by his four length win in the G2 Skyline Stakes. The last horse to come through that race was Dance Hero in 2004 but he did complete the double. Has the ability to sit off a hot tempo and still produce a blistering finish. The main danger.
Ready for Victory has to defy history. No horse has ever won this race at just their second start. The last winner who had their previous start in Victoria was Flying Spur some 20 years ago He jumps straight to 1200m from a 1000m Flemington straight win on debut. The win was outstanding given he came from near last after they walked early and sprinted home the last 600min 33.57sec. He was well backed too which caught me by surprise as I thought he'd need further being out of a Zabeel mare. He will be hitting the line hard.
Headwater is the one who could bounce back without really surprising. The reason I'm being forgiving is that so many winners of this race have been beaten once in the lead-up - Mossfun, Overreach and Sepoy spring to mind in recent years. The stable won this race last year and Glen Boss gets a late pick-up ride. The last time that happened he won on Flying Spur in 1995. He's bred to be a topline sprinter too - his sire won a G1 Newmarket Handicap and his dam won a G1 Oakleigh Plate.English looks the best of the fillies. She's won two from two including a last start win in the G2 Reisling Stakes. That feature has produced four of the last nine winners - Mossfun, Overreach, Forensics and Miss Finland. Gai Waterhouse has won this race five times before. The general consensus is however that the boys are better this year and will dominate just like the fillies did last year when the first boy home was Ghibbelines (8th). One for multiples.
Locky's Selections
5 Exosphere
1 Vancouver
8 English
13 Ottoman
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
1 Vancouver
8 English
13 Ottoman
George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Sacred Falls: Four of the last six winners started at double figure odds. Only two favourites have won in the last 10 years. Pierro is the only 3-y-o to win in the last six years. Three of the last four winners came via the G1 Canterbury Stakes. Chris Waller has trained three of the last five winners.
"The Speed Map" says - Cosmic Endeavour and Hooked to lead them up and probably without much pressure. Burbero won't be too far away. It's Somewhat should be handy to the lead. Ditto the 3-y-o's Shooting to Win and Kermadec. The Waller stable says Weary will be ridden more quietly this week. The rest to be back midfield or worse.
Shooting to Win should be approaching peak fitness now that he has had a couple of runs under his belt. He looked the winner first-up in the G2 Hobartville Stakes but just ran out of condition late. He was then forced into the unusual role of pacemaker in the G1 Randwick Guineas and he wasn't beaten far by Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse. Third run in last Spring he ran on from near last to claim third in the G1 Golden Rose (below) at this track. He then proceeded to win his next two starts in the G3 Stan Fox Stakes and the G1 Caulfield Guineas. He may still need one more run to peak for the G1 Doncaster Handicap in a fortnight so I'm risking him at the skinny quote here.
Cosmic Endeavour is peaking at the right time. She tried hard first-up for eight months with 60kg in the G3 Triscay before conceding 5kg to Danesiri when second behind her in the G3 Guy Walter Stakes. The run clearly did her no harm because she backed up seven days later to claim her second G1 and fourth Black Type race when defeating Catkins and Criterion in the G1 Canterbury Classic. The downside - no filly or mare has won this race for 28 years but that statistic may be misleading because previously this race was usually run on the same day as the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes.
Kermadec was tipped here two weeks ago when fourth in the G1 Australian Guineas (below). What happened has been well documented and connections have opted for a new rider in G1 Cox Plate/G1 Melbourne Cup winning jockey Ryan Moore. The wide gate shouldn't be a problem because there's not a lot of speed here and they have the length of the back straight to sort themselves out from the 1500m start. He gets a weight advantage from all bar one of his rivals and three kilos from most of them. Two starts ago he was in that blanket finish in the G2 Hobartville Stakes with Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse. He ticks a lot of boxes.
Criterion tends to be a bit of a tease early in his preparation. He normally puts in a bottler first-up (as he did last start) and then takes a couple of runs to get over it and produce his best run later on in his campaign. He wouldn't be a total shock and he could lob into a place but I suspect they are looking at the $4M of the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in three weeks time.
It's Somewhat caught the eye at his first run in Australia and landed some good bets when he claimed the G3 Liverpool City Cup in impressive fashion. That was his first run in five months and he has just one third placing from three second-up runs so there's always the chance he could be a bit flat here.
If you're looking for some value to throw into your exotics Weary saves his best form for Rosehill with two wins and two placings from four starts. His seven starts at other tracks have yielded a second and two thirds. He won the G3 Doncaster Prelude and finished second in the G2 Ajax Stakes last Autumn - both over 1500m at Rosehill. I'm Imposing goes well here too - he's never missed a place in six starts over the Rosehill 1500m. Burbero is in great form. He hasn't missed a top two finish in his last eight starts. Two of those were wins were at this track and distance.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Cosmic Endeavour and Hooked to lead them up and probably without much pressure. Burbero won't be too far away. It's Somewhat should be handy to the lead. Ditto the 3-y-o's Shooting to Win and Kermadec. The Waller stable says Weary will be ridden more quietly this week. The rest to be back midfield or worse.
Shooting to Win should be approaching peak fitness now that he has had a couple of runs under his belt. He looked the winner first-up in the G2 Hobartville Stakes but just ran out of condition late. He was then forced into the unusual role of pacemaker in the G1 Randwick Guineas and he wasn't beaten far by Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse. Third run in last Spring he ran on from near last to claim third in the G1 Golden Rose (below) at this track. He then proceeded to win his next two starts in the G3 Stan Fox Stakes and the G1 Caulfield Guineas. He may still need one more run to peak for the G1 Doncaster Handicap in a fortnight so I'm risking him at the skinny quote here.
Cosmic Endeavour is peaking at the right time. She tried hard first-up for eight months with 60kg in the G3 Triscay before conceding 5kg to Danesiri when second behind her in the G3 Guy Walter Stakes. The run clearly did her no harm because she backed up seven days later to claim her second G1 and fourth Black Type race when defeating Catkins and Criterion in the G1 Canterbury Classic. The downside - no filly or mare has won this race for 28 years but that statistic may be misleading because previously this race was usually run on the same day as the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes.
World Ace is one of the two Japanese horses entered for the race and I must confess I don't know a lot about either of them. I did manage to track down some footage of his last start fourth in the G1 Hong Kong Mile (below) however and he looked strong at the end in what is a top quality race. I loved the way he got going again after looking to be struggling half way down the straight. His last win was five starts ago in April last year when successful in the G2 Milers Cup at Kyoto.
Real Impact is the other Japanese raider and he appears to be a horse that takes a few runs to come to hand looking at his form. He's also had a minor setback this week with a small crack discovered in the wall of his near fore hoof. The problem is being monitored by the NSW Racing vet and with that in mind I'm going to look around him for other betting options.Criterion tends to be a bit of a tease early in his preparation. He normally puts in a bottler first-up (as he did last start) and then takes a couple of runs to get over it and produce his best run later on in his campaign. He wouldn't be a total shock and he could lob into a place but I suspect they are looking at the $4M of the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in three weeks time.
It's Somewhat caught the eye at his first run in Australia and landed some good bets when he claimed the G3 Liverpool City Cup in impressive fashion. That was his first run in five months and he has just one third placing from three second-up runs so there's always the chance he could be a bit flat here.
Locky's Selections
14 Kermadec
10 It's Somewhat
11 Cosmic Endeavour
6 Weary
Current market
*** .There are no early scratchings ***
10 It's Somewhat
11 Cosmic Endeavour
6 Weary
Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** .There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Sweynesse: 11 of the last 13 winners have paid $8 or less but seven of the last 10 favourites have been beaten. Six of the last nine winners came via the G1 Randwick Guineas but only two of them completed the double.
"The Speed Map" says - Preferment and Pounamu go back. Hampton Court to lead. The four top fancies to sort themselves out somewhere in between. Volkstok'n'barrell should get a nice trail on the leader from the barrier. The other three have to try and slot in from those awkward barriers. It will be a tactical affair at a slow tempo I think.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Preferment and Pounamu go back. Hampton Court to lead. The four top fancies to sort themselves out somewhere in between. Volkstok'n'barrell should get a nice trail on the leader from the barrier. The other three have to try and slot in from those awkward barriers. It will be a tactical affair at a slow tempo I think.
Hallowed Crown has had seven starts for six wins. Five of those six were in Black Type races including his last start win (below) in the G1 Randwick Guineas. How do you knock that? His only defeat was behind last weekend's G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau. First they said he was simply a wet tracker but he has dispelled that myth. I'm sure there'll be plenty questioning him up to the 2000m trip tomorrow but he just keeps winning. Short enough with the bookies but how do you leave him out?
Sweynesse has finished second to Hallowed Crown both times they have met including that last start G1 Randwick Guineas (above) and he does look like he will relish the 2000m. He was beaten less than two lengths in last year's G1 Cox Plate behind the likes of Adelaide, Fawkner, Silent Achiever, Happy Trails and Criterion - what price those horses in this race? He's been safely held by Hallowed Crown both runs this campaign but you know he'll run the mile and a quarter whereas the other bloke still has to prove that.
Mongolian Khan is coming off victory in the G1 NZ Derby (below) and there is a precedent to say he can win because Jimmy Choux did complete the same double in 2011. Like Hallowed Crown he has won six from seven including his last five in a row. He's a versatile horse and his Derby win showed he's as tough as old boots but dropping from a grinding 2400m to a sit-and-sprint 2000m is a concern. If you're having quinellas, trifectas etc. he simply has to go in but how does the Kiwi form stack up this side of the Tasman?
Volkstok'n'barrell was a fighting second to Mongolian Khan in the G1 NZ Derby (above) and he is the only horse in the race that has never missed a place with five wins and three placings from his eight starts. The concern is that all his wins have come up to 1600m and when he has been asked to stretch to 2000m and further at his last two starts he's been beaten as favourite. He also has to drop from 2400m to 2000m off a three week break.
These four have scared everyone away so there's only three other runners and they are all $34+. Preferment could improve up to 2000m because he is a Zabeel and his two career best performances were at 2200m+. Damien Oliver is back on board and he has ridden the horse twice for a win in the G1 VRC Derby and a narrow second in the Listed Geelong Classic. Hampton Court is on a seven day back-up and jumps from 1600m to 2000m - the last time he did that he won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes last October beating First Seal and Sweynesse. Pounamu will probably drift back in the field and in all likelihood will stay there.Sweynesse has finished second to Hallowed Crown both times they have met including that last start G1 Randwick Guineas (above) and he does look like he will relish the 2000m. He was beaten less than two lengths in last year's G1 Cox Plate behind the likes of Adelaide, Fawkner, Silent Achiever, Happy Trails and Criterion - what price those horses in this race? He's been safely held by Hallowed Crown both runs this campaign but you know he'll run the mile and a quarter whereas the other bloke still has to prove that.
Mongolian Khan is coming off victory in the G1 NZ Derby (below) and there is a precedent to say he can win because Jimmy Choux did complete the same double in 2011. Like Hallowed Crown he has won six from seven including his last five in a row. He's a versatile horse and his Derby win showed he's as tough as old boots but dropping from a grinding 2400m to a sit-and-sprint 2000m is a concern. If you're having quinellas, trifectas etc. he simply has to go in but how does the Kiwi form stack up this side of the Tasman?
Volkstok'n'barrell was a fighting second to Mongolian Khan in the G1 NZ Derby (above) and he is the only horse in the race that has never missed a place with five wins and three placings from his eight starts. The concern is that all his wins have come up to 1600m and when he has been asked to stretch to 2000m and further at his last two starts he's been beaten as favourite. He also has to drop from 2400m to 2000m off a three week break.
Locky's Selections
4 Sweynesse
1 Hallowed Crown
3 Mongolian Khan
2 Preferment
1 Hallowed Crown
3 Mongolian Khan
2 Preferment
Other bets
Lucia Valentina (Rosehill Race 4 No. 7) won the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) at her third run last preparation. Her previous campaign she claimed the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes third-up at this track and distance. In her only other prep she claimed the G3 Wellington Stakes at Otaki at just her third race start. Forget her last start failure because she's zero from four second-up. Rain would help but she has won on a dry track (the Turnbull Stakes no less) and she did run third in a G1 Caulfield Cup on a Good 3. Three goes at 2000m for two wins and a second. Opened $5.50.
Knoydart (Rosehill Race 6 No. 7) has never missed a place in four runs at Rosehill. He's had two starts at 1100m for a win and a half length third in last year's G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) behind Lankan Rupee and Spirit of Boom. He then chased home the same two horses at his next start when a one length third in the G1 Newmarket Handicap. He has two wins and a second from three runs second-up. He was hitting the line strongly first-up in the G2 Challenge Stakes behind Miracles of Life so he'll appreciate the step up to 1100m especially given that he will meet the mare three kilos better off this time. Opened $10.
Firehouse Rock (Moonee Vally TONIGHT Race 6 No. 2) was dropping back from 1800m to 1600m last start in the G1 Australian Guineas and was just burnt off his feet early but he hit the line as strongly as any of them. Prior to that he was a three quarter length third to Alpine Eagle in the G3 Autumn Classic. His only other start at this trip he was third to Fontein Ruby and Crafty in the G3 Caulfield Classic. Like tonight that was also his fifth run of his campaign. The stable is riding the crest of a wave too. Opened $7.00.
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