G1 Winterbottom Stakes Day - 02.12.2017

This is not a strong G1.

But I will press on regardless.

ASCOT

*** At time of publication a track rating still wasn't available if you can believe it. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***

Winterbottom Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** The River is an early scratching ***

Viddora has never won beyond 1100m and in six runs at 1200m has managed just two seconds but her fresh run in the G1 Moir Stakes was outstanding and she wasn't far away next start (below) in a leader dominated G1 Manikato Stakes. That was the first time she'd missed a top two finish since October last year. Visiting trainers have won seven of the last 10 runnings. 

State Solicitor is a 1200m specialist with six wins from nine goes and William Pike has won this race twice before. He finished sixth in this race last year beaten a length. On that day he drew 11 of 12 and was hooked back to last but he flashed home in a race where Takedown and Sheidel were 1-2 the whole way. His should have won the G3 Colonel Reeves by a bigger margin last start after running into traffic.

Rock Magic beat State Solicitor home in this race last year (above) and arguably had a harder run. He finished midfield in the G1 Darley Classic (below) last but so did Buffering before winning this race two years ago. He was in the wrong part of the Flemington track that day too. Prior to that he was wide with no cover behind Hey Doc in the G1 Manikato but battled on gamely. He goes well here.

Santa Ana Lane isn't to badly treated by the wide barrier because he is a get back and run on type after all and the last five winners drew barrier eight or wider. He's the only G1 winner in the race and all three runs this prep have been good but they've all been at handicap level too. Up to 58.5kg here is much harder but having said that this isn't the best w-f-a field I've ever seen.

Only one winner in the last 13 years has returned more than $9.

Fuhryk won two starts back and got "Willowed" fresh but her other two runs this campaign were pretty ordinary. Four of the last six winners of this race came off a last start at Flemington during Cup Week. 

The next five all come via the G3 Colonel Reeves won by State Solicitor and crossed the line within a half a length of each other.

Caipirinha was caught wide but still finished on the heels of the winner and she gets a 2.5kg swing here. She's a four-time winner at Ascot including two at this trip but she's drawn horribly again. Durendal gets the same weight turnaround but he's never won here in seven attempts (five placings though). He is however a six-time winner at 1200m. He went close last start at big odds. Profit Street is in 1.5kg to the good at comparative weights and he was the best of the closers in a race where they didn't go hard. He's a five-time winner at the journey and two of them were right here. Dainty Tess has nine career wins at 1000m-1100m but just the one at this distance. She's only raced at 1200m three times though (all at this circuit) for a win and a second. Another who is better suited at the weight scale. Whispering Brook also meets the favourite 2.5kg better from the same outing. She's the best backed roughie in the race ($26 into $12) and a four-time winner at this track. Jockey Jason Brown won this race in 2012 and 2014. Blinkers first time.

The bottom four are $31+. No.

Locky's Bet

1. Rock Magic EACH-WAY (without much confidence)

OTHER BETS

Pretty Fast (Doomben Race 5 No. ?) is racing in fine fettle with three consecutive wins in Sydney. I'm always wary when Team Snowden brings one north of the border. No wins on Heavy but two wins on Soft and this track is on the improve. Set weights suits.

Sedanzer (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) defied a dawdling tempo first-up to get home over the top of them. She's unbeaten in two second-up runs. Second run back last prep she came from near last to beat the talented Interlocuter by a length.

Good punting!

G1 Railway Stakes Day - 25.11.2017

Major racing action moves to the West this weekend with Ascot to host the G1 Railway Stakes.

All this will be followed by G1 Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time going around in Sunday's G1 Japan Cup.

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***

Railway Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

The history books say it will be hard for the favourite because only two have won since the turn of the century. Having said that only four winners in the same period have been at double figure odds and it's worth noting that they all came in the last eight years. It's proven a difficult race for visiting horses and trainers to win with the locals saluting in 14 of the last 17 renewals. Only three winners in that time carried 55kg or more. Six winners came via the Lee Steere Stakes and six via the Peters Stakes and all 12 of those finished no worse than fifth.

With that in mind I'm looking wide here and tipping the Stephen Miller trained Variation on an each-way basis. He's a 4-y-o on the way up in with a light weight and a specialist miler with three wins from three goes including a Listed Belmont Guineas and a G2 W.A. Guineas (below) on this day last year. He's two from two at this track and trip and his three runs so far this prep (1400m-1500m) have been solid without winning. Now he steps up to his pet trip fourth run back. Barrier four (three if/when the emergency comes out) doesn't hurt either and Brad Parnham has partnered this horse in all bar one of his seven career wins.

Obviously there are other hopes. Last year's winner Scales Of Justice will have to lump an extra 4.5kg this year but he goes well at this track (8:4-3-1) and distance (3:3-0-0) and Douglas Whyte once again makes the trip from Hong Kong to take the ride. He's drawn awkwardly however. Silverstream beat him last start in the G2 Lee Steere Stakes and meets him 2kg better off here so she has to be mix especially given she's a five-time winner at Ascot. No wins beyond 1400m though and she's drawn the extreme outside gate. Great Shot split the pair of them last start and meets them both better at the weights. Two wins and a third from three runs at the mile. He rarely runs a poor race so he could be a roughie for wider exotics. Pounamu isn't the worst $16 chance I've ever seen either. He's grown another leg since moving to the West.

Of the visitors I think Tom Melbourne brings the best form but how can you back him with any confidence anymore. He hasn't saluted since winning the Listed Albury Cup 20 months ago. Black Heart Bart isn't getting any younger and his last few runs have been below par plus he has a stack of weight to carry. Supply And Demand got the visitors draw and the race he was beaten in on Oaks Day was much weaker than this. Sovereign Nation and Ulmann are capable on their day but hard to catch.

Locky's Bet

16. Variation EACH-WAY

OTHER BETS

Love Days (Ballarat Race 1 No. 9) two runs this prep are better than they look on paper. She missed the kick and raced in restricted room first-up and she had the wind knocked out of her sails at a crucial stage last time out. Despite that she wasn't far away on either occasion. The blinkers go on for the first time and Melham should get a good run from the barrier. Back on a dry track helps too.

Chamalu (Doomben Race 2 No. 5) has drawn horribly but he is an on speed type so hopefully he can get across. Two wins from four starts and one of those misses was in a G1 Golden Rose at just his second career start. His win first-up this prep was impressive and he had excuses last time out. He's always looked like a mile will suit.

Good punting!

G2 Zipping Classic Day - 18.11.2017

My apologies for the absence over the second half of the Flemington Carnival but my laptop chose to up and die halfway through Cup Week.

Don't worry. You didn't miss anything.

SANDOWN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day the chance of showers in the afternoon. ***

Zipping Classic (Group 2, 2400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

The bookies have this as a race in three with a trio of runners at $4 or less and the rest at $15+.

Almandin is suited away from handicap conditions and I'm prepared to overlook his below par run in the G1 Melbourne Cup (below) because he was wide the whole way with a big weight. It just depends which one of him turns up. If it is the horse from two starts back in the G3 Bart Cummings he'll struggle. If it is the horse from three starts back in the Listed JRA Trophy he will brain them. Who wants to take $2.50 to find out?

Big Duke was a brave fourth in the G1 Melbourne Cup but meets Almandin 3kg worse off. He's had two runs at 2600m for wins in a G2 Chairman's and the $500K St Leger three starts back. His prior effort when a narrow second in the G1 Metropolitan was huge given he conceded the winner 4.5kg. In a winning stable, drawn well and ultra consistent.

The Taj Mahal ran last weekend and he's failed both times previously when on a seven day back-up. Granted both were in G1's but he's also only been tried beyond 2000m once and was well beaten in a G1 Irish Derby. The G1 Emirates run was good but $4 about a horse who is one from 18? That's way too short for mine.

The rest aren't given much chance of winning. At least not by me.

Assign has had three runs this prep. He's been beaten a combined margin of 21.75 lengths and has beaten a combined five horses home. I guess he'll be used as a pacemaker. There, I said it. Take me to court Lloyd. So Si Bon hasn't won since breaking his maiden at Pakenham 14 months ago. He ran fourth in this race last year as a 3-y-o with 50.5kg and goes up 7.5kg here. His last two runs have been uninspiring. Consommateur would love a bit of rain because she eats mud. She was good fresh then just so-so at her last two but of the five at long odds she's the only one I could have in a trifecta. Berisha can mix his form.  He was good three starts back behind a subsequent G1 Cox Plate placegetter but that was his best run since a third in the G3 Naturalism last year. The last time he won Prince was still alive. Dandy Gent would be getting 14.5kg from Almandin if this race was a handicap. Last start he was a sixth length ninth of ten in a Kyneton Cup with 54kg and he goes up 5kg here. No.

Locky's Bet

NONE 

OTHER BETS

Gallic Chieftain (Sandown Race 3 No. 2) deserves to break through here after four really consistent runs. He flew from last in a leader dominated G3 JRA Cup then was placed in the G2 Herbert Power and G3 Geelong Cup (below) - both strong form races. He followed that with a solid effort in the G3 Queen Elizabeth in a race again controlled from the front. He'll be a lot closer in this small field and looks like he'll love two miles.

Beau Geste (Sandown Race 8 No. 2) was impossible to miss in the G3 Carbine Club last start when rattling into fourth. He was still last at the 200m and buried behind a wall of horses but I loved the way he attacked the line once clear. His closing sectionals were some of the best of the race. A mile on a big track suits.

Good punting!

G1 Melbourne Cup Day - 07.11.2017

I will start with a warning that the G1 Melbourne Cup is not a race that's been good to me over the years so take my tips with a grain of salt.

I'll be saving my money for Aloisia on Thursday.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly cloudy day with a medium chance of showers in the morning. ***

Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Who Shot Thebarman is an early scratching ***

Quite a few to get through so I'll be brief and look at them in rough market order.

Almandin is our defending champ and narrow favourite but he has to carry an extra 4.5kg this year and a quick glance at the history books will tell you that going back-to-back is very hard to do. He was plain last start as a short priced favourite but he races well here and will stay the 3200m. Marmelo was the eye-cathcer in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) when flashing home from the tail to finish sixth. Prior to that he won the G2 Prix Kegorlay in France. Americain (2010) and Protectionist (2014) completed the same double. Humidor pushed Winx in the G1 Cox Plate last start in track record time and I just wonder how much that has taken out of him. Both his G1 wins were here at Flemington but he's never won beyond 2000m. Neither has Johannes Vermeer. Otherwise his form paints a nice portrait because he was great in the G1 Caulfield Cup last start (below) and he's drawn to get every possible chance. His G1 Caulfield Stakes run was also very, very good.

The next five in the betting are all internationals without an Australian lead-up run. No one has won this race off a prep like that since Vintage Crop (1993) but seven of the last eight second placegetters (Crime Scene, Fiorente, Max Dynamite and Red Cadeaux thrice) have taken that path.

Rekindling should get a lovely run from barrier four and Corey Brown won this race on Shocking in 2009. Last start he was a two length fourth in the G1 St. Leger and he drops 6kg on that run. He's the most inexperienced runner here with just nine career starts so he may not be seasoned enough. Wall Of Fire was impressive in the G2 Herbert Power at his Australian debut last start. He came from last to finish second conceding the winner 5kg. That was a great form race (Lord Fandango, Gallic Chieftain, Boom Time) and he drops 5kg here. Max Dynamite finished second in this race two years ago and is in one kilo lighter this time around. His preparation has been almost identical with a run in a hurdle two starts back followed by a win on the flat. Great barrier draw and he drops 19kg on his last start win. Thomas Hobson has to overcome a wide draw but from all reports Joao Moreira chased the ride so he's seen something he likes. He drops down in the weights here for the first time in a long time and much like last year's runner-up Heartbreak City he is a hurdler who can also race well on the flat. My worry is his best form is over longer so he may be too dour. Red Cardinal will need divine assistance from the outside gate but he's in good hands with a Cup winning trainer and a two-time Cup winning jockey. He's won two from two at the trip - the first in Germany three starts back, the second (below) in the U.S. two starts back - so clearly he travels well.

Amelie's Star won the G3 Bart Cummings last start which is the same race Almandin won last year en route to his victory. She failed next start but she was however ridden a lot closer to the lead than her normal racing pattern. She has no weight and good Flemington form. Big Duke is coming off a fourth in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup when he didn't have a lot of luck. That was his first unplaced run in eight attempts at 2400m+. His two prior runs at Randwick were strong staying performances and the Sydney form is stacking up. He's well drawn and lightly weighted. Tiberian has won four of his last five starts but the barrier draw did him no favours. His six career wins have been at 2400m - 3000m. Statistics suggest it's very hard to win this race at your first Australian start. Hartnell finished third in this race last year (below) when he was in much better form and carrying 1.5kg less so it's hard to make a case for him winning this time around. Not many win carrying the number one saddlecloth either. Boom Time got all the favours when winning the G1 Caulfield Cup last start but he was still strong at the end. I can't remember the last G1 Caulfield Cup winner that started at $34 in this race 17 days later. Still down in the weights and the stable is bullish about his chances.

Ventura Storm split Winx and Humidor in the G1 Turnbull two starts back (below) and that form looks red hot now. That run clearly took something out of him because he was pretty plain next start in the G1 Caulfield Cup although he was found to have a bruised heel post race. Nakeeta won the Ebor Handicap last start and that race has provided previous placegetters Purple Moon and Heartbreak City. Libran was second in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup last start and the third horse has since won the G3 Lexus. He's another who drops sharply in weight. Single Gaze is just so honest and her G1 Caulfield Cup run was enormous. Her last 10 starts have yielded two wins and six other top five finishes. Kathy O'Hara is in good form with a winning treble at Rosehill on Saturday.

Wicklow Brave is a 9-y-o gelding now and he was awful in this race last year and not much better in the G1 Caulfield Cup last start. Cismontane won a weak G3 Lexus on Saturday. He's our likely leader but whether he'll be there at the end is another matter. U.S. Army Ranger has no recent good form and has drawn very wide. Bondi Beach has contested the last two renewals of this race and was awful both times. Gallante isn't going well enough. He'll probably be on pace but I expect he'll drop out faster than the Cincinnati Bengals in the playoffs.

Locky's Bets

5. Marmelo EACH-WAY 
13. Big Duke EACH-WAY

ONLY OTHER BET

Derryn (Flemington Race 9 No. 2) has been well beaten at his two starts this prep but this is a much easier assignment. Barrier 20 could be the place to be late in the day and don't forget this bloke was only three quarters of a length off Redzel in the G1 Doomben 10,000 five starts back. Jockey Blake Shinn is in good touch. Each way at good odds.

Tough day to find winners.

Good punting!

G1 Victoria Derby Day - 04.11.2017

Last week will be hard to top but the form out of tomorrow's Flemington meeting must be respected.

Last year Hey Doc ran fourth in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes, Sheidel won the G3 Begonia Belle Stakes, Russian Revolution finished fourth in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and Tivaci ran third in the G1 Cantala Stakes.

Since that day 12 months ago they've won a G1 Oakleigh Plate, a G1 Australian Guineas, a G1 Galaxy, a G1 All Aged Stakes and the G1 Manikato Stakes.


*** Please note this track has had it's problems with bias the last two Cup Week Carnivals so it may pay to watch the first few races before having any serious wagers. ***

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a slight chance of a morning shower. ***

V.R.C. Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

It's been a pretty even spread over the last decade with four winners of this race coming via the G2 Vase, two the G3 Norman Robinson, two the Listed Geelong Classic, one from a G1 Spring Champion and one from a BM72. Which is the best form race this year?

I'm a huge Aloisia fan so naturally I think the G2 Vase was a better race but seeing the first three aren't engaged here 'm going with the G3 Norman Robinson. Cliff's Edge ran in both so that gives us some kind of form reference. He dictated from the front but there were good runs behind him.

With that in mind I'm going each-way on Eshtiraak. His sectionals from the mile home were the best of the race and he still looked powerful on the line. The stable is flying and the jockey is a big race specialist, he'll get a good passage from barrier five and he's from the same sire as Cup winner Shocking so he should see out the staying trip. He won four of his first six starts and has always shown ability. This doesn't look like a strong Derby.

There's a few others with claims like Main Stage. He was good from the back in the G3 Norman Robinson behind Cliff's Edge after rounding him up at their previous start at Flemington in the Listed U.C.I. Stakes but the wide draw makes it tricky. Then there's his stablemate Sully who chased home Ace High when third (below) in the G1 Spring Champion last start but again the stable got no favours at the barrier draw. Speaking of Ace High he has certainly done nothing wrong and is coming off back-to-back wins in the G3 Gloaming and the aforementioned G1 Spring Champion. My concern is he hasn't had a run since so he goes into this off a four week break. Will he be seasoned enough for 2500m? Assuming of course it is a strongly run race. If not he will be very hard to run down from the inside gate because he maps well here with his racing pattern. 

Tangled has been very solid at his last three runs. He lumped a big weight and got very tight when a close-up fourth in the Listed Dulcify. He followed that with seconds in the G1 Spring Champion (above) and the G3 Norman Robinson. His dam Bramble Rose ran third to Sunday Joy in the 2003 A.J.C. Oaks and jockey Blake Shinn is riding in excellent form. Weather With You is ideally drawn and comes off a victory in Listed Geelong Classic. The double has never been completed although Preferment (2014) and Rebel Raider (2008) placed in in the race. That's good news for longer priced chances Astoria and Ocean's Fourteen. They were both solid from worse than midfield in the same race to fill the minor placings. I thought the former was a better run because Ocean's Fourteen cut the corner whereas Astoria went via the car park. From the inside barrier he should get a cosier run tomorrow and he's been nibbled at in early markets. 

Greycliffe is a son of Tavistock so it was no real surprise when he stepped up to a trip for the first time last start and absolutely smacked them. Sure it was only a BM64 but he carried 57kg and beat older horses. Aberro split Main Stage and Eshtiraak in the G3 Norman Robinson. Pissaro chased hard in the G2 Vase last week without threatening. Johnny Vinko got too far back last start in a race where the winner shared the lead. Prior to that he was on the heels of Main Stage and Cliff's Edge in the Listed U.C.I. Stakes.

Locky's Tip

4. Eshtiraak EACH-WAY 

OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES

Bring Me Roses (Flemington Race 2 No. 1) was scintillating last start to come from near last in a race where they walked in front. She's only had four career starts but she has steadily improved at each run as they have stepped her up in distance. She's a daughter of High Chaparral so she should relish the mile and a quarter. The Tony McEvoy stable is airborne at the moment.

Foxplay (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) gets another chance because that G2 Tristarc Stakes was run on a Caulfield track that was doing funny things with the rail out six metres. She was also dropping back to 1400m following her fourth (below) in the G1 Epsom. That form is good enough to see her extremely competitive here against her own sex at w-f-a and back up to the mile.

Tom Melbourne (Flemington Race 8 No. 5) looks the likely leader in a contest devoid of any real pace and if this Flemington track plays the way it has the last two carnivals that will be an advantage. His last start sixth in the G1 Toorak was very brave given he raced on speed and the trifecta came from 11th or worse on the turn. He can be hard to catch but I'm giving him one last chance.

Good punting!