G2 Victory Stakes Day - 30.04.2016

Our attention turns to Brisbane the very same week that "Game of Thrones" returns to our T.V. screens.

That can only mean one thing.

Winter is coming.

Who's Hot? 

The Bjorn Baker stable is flying. He had five runners last Saturday spread across Rosehill, Kembla Grange and the Sunshine Coast for four winners and a second. He's had 14 winners all told in the last fortnight.

His best chances tomorrow at Hawkesbury appear to be Lubiton (Race 3 No. 8), Coolring (Race 4 No. 3) and Rock Forthe Ladies (Race 5 No. 3).

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day.***

The Victory Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Choice Bro is an early scratching ***

Fell Swoop has contested three G1's this time in for two narrow seconds and a fourth. Overall he's had 13 starts for eight wins and three seconds and with a bit of luck that would read 11 wins and a second to Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes last start. That horse will start a short priced favourite on Sunday in the G1 Chairman's Sprint in Hong Kong. I'm not keen on stepping into the odds-on but he does look the winner.

Didntcostalot has really blossomed since transferring to the Eagle Farm stables of Tony Gollan with four wins and two placings from seven starts. He's shown a real affinity for the Doomben 1200m start too with three wins and a third from just the four attempts. He looks the likely leader from barrier one and he can run a race fresh so I think he's the one Fell Swoop will have to run down.

Knoydart was a two length fourth too Srikandi in this race last year. He always seems to put in a good run in Queensland with a second in the G1 BTC Cup last year and top five finishes in the last two editions of the G1 Doomben 10,000.  He just missed Music Magnate in a deceptive finish (below) last time out in the G3 Hall Mark Stakes. He hasn't won for 26 months but has been Stakes placed six times.

Artlee didn't have any luck last start (above) behind Knoydart in that very same race but if you go back through his career form he's building quite an imposing record. What worries me is he was a late entry for this race. Nominations were extended due to the fact that only six horses initially nominated and I hate horses going into races as an afterthought. Local hoop Michael Cahill replaces Mitchell Bell.

Famous Seamus won the G1 BTC Cup (below) at this track and distance beating Spirit Of Boom and Buffering in the process but that was two years ago. He's only won twice since in 18 subsequent runs and he's been unplaced in 12 of his last 13 starts. It's hard to have him on his three runs this prep because he has been terrible. Talented enough on his day but I can't have him here.

Fontelina didn't produce his best last campaign until three-four runs into his prep and that's probably the goal this time in with races coming up like the G1 Doomben 10,000 and G1 Stradbroke Handicap. He has not placed when first-up for three and a half years but he was just over a length off Dothraki fresh last October in the Listed Lightning Stakes at Randwick. Jockey Jim Byrne knows his way around Doomben.

Pinch River and Rock Royalty look hopelessly out of their depth here. The nicest thing I can say is they both have good records at this track and distance.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Fell Swoop

DANGER  

4. Didntcostalot

FOR EXOTICS

7. Knoydart
3. Artlee

OTHER BETS

Caillebotte (Doomben Race 1 No. 7) is unbeaten in three starts at this trip including his last two appearances by a combined margin of more than seven lengths. Granted they were in much weaker company but he gets weight relief to offset the class rise and he appears to have turned the corner. The wide gate doesn't concern me because he drew the inside last start and still went back to near last. There's plenty of time for this small field to sort themselves out down the Doomben straight from the 2200m start and the pace should be genuine.

Inz'n'out (Hawkesbury Race 4 No. 6) won't want too much rain (5-10mm forecast) because although he won on affected ground early in his career I feel he's best on a dry track. Last campaign he was super after being gelded. After failing first-up (Heavy 9, $3.60 out to $6.50) he finished second to Fell Swoop before winning his next two. Following that he split Good Project and Music Magnate before placing at his next two runs too. He'll be making his own luck up on the speed from the good barrier draw and he's been the subject of good support in early betting.

Good punting!