With so many good fields to digest in the lead-up to this weekend I nearly forgot to submit my blog.
I only remembered when I drove past that billboard for "Gambling Awareness Week".
Thanks guys.
I only remembered when I drove past that billboard for "Gambling Awareness Week".
Thanks guys.
Who's Hot?
James McDonald forces his way into this segment following his four winners at Rosehilll last weekend.
He has some super rides tomorrow with quite a few of his mounts well fancied in early betting such as Astern (Race 1 No. 1), Telperion (Race 6 No. 1), Tally (Race 7 No. 4), Exosphere (Race 8 No. 14) and Bow Creek (Race 9 No. 5).
RANDWICK
The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Winx comes into this on the back of eight straight wins of which five were at the highest level. She claimed the G1 George Ryder Stakes (below) last start and seven of the last 12 winners came via that race with three completing the double. Chris Waller has trained the last three winners of this race and five of the last eight. In the last month jockey Hugh Bowman has won the G1 Australian Cup, G1 George Ryder Stakes, G1 B.M.W. and G1 Hong Kong Derby. A worthy favourite. The wide gate and the barrier are the only concerns.
Kermadec (second) stretched Winx last start and meets her 1.5kg better off at the handicap conditions. He won this race last year on a Soft 7 so he's one of the few that will handle an affected surface and he's had six starts at 1600m for three wins, two seconds and a luckless fourth in a G1 Australian Guineas. Two of those victories came in G1's at the Randwick mile. Chris Waller went back-to-back in this race with Sacred Falls in 2013/14 - can he make it a "double double"?
Next best in that G1 George Ryder Stakes was First Seal (fourth) and this time around she gets a 3.5kg swing in the weights from Winx and 2kg from Kermadec. She maps beautifully here and will be there to pounce in the straight if she's good enough. Her Randwick form reads very well (6:2-3-0) and Tommy Berry won this race three years ago on a lightly weighted horse at double figure odds.
Happy Clapper (fifth) is the biggest beneficiary from the handicap conditions because he meets all those who finished in front of him much better off at the weights - First Seal 4.5kg, Kermadec 6.5kg and Winx a staggering 8kg. He won the G2 Villiers Stakes at the Randwick mile third-up last prep and that automatically qualified him for this race which has allowed trainer Pat Webster to take him along quietly. He is ticking over nicely for this and looks a real danger and the improving track is in his favour.
Turn Me Loose (sixth) looked a bit fizzy to me in the mounting yard last start so that may account for his below average performance. He didn't run along in front as hard as usual either which is his when he seems to put in his best performances. On his best form he'd be right in this but I just have to wonder if he is in his best form. He's certainly mixing it up a bit at the moment (bad run/good run/poor run) and it's hard to endorse a horse like that. Not hopeless.
Now to look at those who come via the road less traveled.
Bow Creek comes out of the G1 Australian Cup where he had no chance given it was basically a $1.5M barrier trial. He'll get a more solid tempo here tomorrow and from barrier four he should get a beautiful run. If he can produce the devastating turn of foot he displayed two starts back when blitzing them in the G2 Peter Young Stakes he's right in this with just 54.5kg. Last October he was a half length second to Turn Me Loose in the G2 Crystal Mile.
He Or She won the G2 Blamey Stakes last start and second placegetter The United Stakes has subsequently won the G1 Ranvet so the form is holding up. He's three from four at 1600m and he did win fourth run in last campaign before coming from last to finish fifth in the G1 Emirates Stakes behind Turn Me Loose. Some markets offered as much as $51 but he's less than half that quote now.
Kermadec (second) stretched Winx last start and meets her 1.5kg better off at the handicap conditions. He won this race last year on a Soft 7 so he's one of the few that will handle an affected surface and he's had six starts at 1600m for three wins, two seconds and a luckless fourth in a G1 Australian Guineas. Two of those victories came in G1's at the Randwick mile. Chris Waller went back-to-back in this race with Sacred Falls in 2013/14 - can he make it a "double double"?
Next best in that G1 George Ryder Stakes was First Seal (fourth) and this time around she gets a 3.5kg swing in the weights from Winx and 2kg from Kermadec. She maps beautifully here and will be there to pounce in the straight if she's good enough. Her Randwick form reads very well (6:2-3-0) and Tommy Berry won this race three years ago on a lightly weighted horse at double figure odds.
Happy Clapper (fifth) is the biggest beneficiary from the handicap conditions because he meets all those who finished in front of him much better off at the weights - First Seal 4.5kg, Kermadec 6.5kg and Winx a staggering 8kg. He won the G2 Villiers Stakes at the Randwick mile third-up last prep and that automatically qualified him for this race which has allowed trainer Pat Webster to take him along quietly. He is ticking over nicely for this and looks a real danger and the improving track is in his favour.
Turn Me Loose (sixth) looked a bit fizzy to me in the mounting yard last start so that may account for his below average performance. He didn't run along in front as hard as usual either which is his when he seems to put in his best performances. On his best form he'd be right in this but I just have to wonder if he is in his best form. He's certainly mixing it up a bit at the moment (bad run/good run/poor run) and it's hard to endorse a horse like that. Not hopeless.
Now to look at those who come via the road less traveled.
Azkadellia is at the stage of her campaign where she put in her best runs last Spring. Fourth run in she almost overcame the leader bias at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day when just missing in the G3 Tesio Stakes. She backed up seven days later to produce one of the runs of the carnival (below) when again defying the pattern to be less than a length off Politeness and Fenway in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day. The wide gate makes it tricky but watch for a big run from her tomorrow and again next week in the G1 Coolmore Legacy Stakes.
He Or She won the G2 Blamey Stakes last start and second placegetter The United Stakes has subsequently won the G1 Ranvet so the form is holding up. He's three from four at 1600m and he did win fourth run in last campaign before coming from last to finish fifth in the G1 Emirates Stakes behind Turn Me Loose. Some markets offered as much as $51 but he's less than half that quote now.
Volkstok'n'barrell has had four attempts at the mile for three wins including his last two starts in N.Z. at G1 level. He was luckless in his only other run at the trip (below) when badly snookered on the rail all the way down the straight in a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. He looked like he had a lot to give but just couldn't get out. He won the G1 Rosehill Guineas this time last year leaving the likes of Preferment, Hallowed Crown and Mongolian Khan in his wake. I just query whether that N.Z. form is good enough for this.
Good Project can be forgiven his last start disappointment because he stumbled at the start and pulled up lame. His previous effort was super when he reeled off some impressive closing splits charging into third in a G3 Liverpool City Cup that was run in record time. He won the G1 Railway Stakes in Perth last December but this looks a lot tougher. Having said that the trainer goes OK.
Good Project can be forgiven his last start disappointment because he stumbled at the start and pulled up lame. His previous effort was super when he reeled off some impressive closing splits charging into third in a G3 Liverpool City Cup that was run in record time. He won the G1 Railway Stakes in Perth last December but this looks a lot tougher. Having said that the trainer goes OK.
Everything else is $41+ but there are a couple who could tumble into the trifecta without totally shocking me.
Stratum Star has never won at a mile but he has placed in all five attempts including a G3 Carbine Club Stakes, a G2 Sandwon Guineas, a G1 Australian Guineas, a G1 Toorak Handicap and that hot G2 Blamey Stakes last start. Rudy is the best wet tracker if the surface does deteriorate and he finished fourth in this race last year against some quality types.
Locky's Selections
BEST
3. Winx
11. Azkadellia
3. Winx
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
10. Happy Clapper
1. Kermadec
5. Bow Creek
13. Rudy
OTHER GROUP 1'S
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Telperion for mine here. The G1 Golden Slipper trifecta all drew inside gates and raced in the first half of the field whereas this bloke (below) was back near last after drawing wide and then had to weave a passage through the field down the straight. He still finished right on their heels and can be closer in the run tomorrow from the better barrier. He gives every indication that 1400m will suit him even better and the Godolphin stable is in hot form.
Of the others Yankee Rose was outstanding (above) in the G1 Golden Slipper. How much that first-up run took out of her I'm not sure. Detective is still a maiden after four starts but has finished runner up to Capitalist, French Fern, Kiss And Make Up and Seaburge. If he goes in then obviously Seaburge has to be in the mix somewhere because he looked strong at the end of the G2 VRC Sires Produce. I think you have to forgive a horse one bad run especially if it's in a G1 Golden Slipper so Good Standing gets another chance. Omei Sword caught the eye last start and she'll love 1400m. So will Zamzam.
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Tarzino is hard to knock. He was pulling away from them at the end (below) of the G1 Rosehill Guineas and he's already won the G1 Victoria Derby in the Spring. He's improved with every run this time in and you could make an argument that he should also have won the G1 Australian Guineas. He's not going to be any flash price here but he just profiles so well for a race like this and I cannot tip against him.
Jameka was solid behind Tarzino last start (above) and did defeat him in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day last October. Tally was fifth in the same race but has gone to another level since with four straight wins this prep. His last start victory in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes was the win of a stayer. Vanbrugh was in the wrong part of the track when fourth (above) behind Tarzino and Jameka in the G1 Rosehill Guineas a fortnight ago. He did well to get that close given they walked in front. What's The Story was strong at the end of the G1 N.Z. Derby but the bunched finish worries me. Chris Waller has always had a wrap on Torgersen and his closing second in the G2 Tulloch Stakes last week was pleasing.
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Exosphere gets a chance to atone here after two Flemington flops. Prior to that he'd won five of his last six with his most emphatic victory coming at his only start at this track and distance when he brained them (below) in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. He came from near last to win by three lengths going away under a hold and left future G1 winner Japonisme in his wake. I think he could be something special. Jockey James McDonald is flying.
For exotics I think the cream does tend to rise to the top in these w-f-a contests so the class horses Chautauqua and Terravista have to go in. The love affair continues for me with Fell Swoop despite a below par effort in the G1 Galaxy. Shiraz was enormous in the same race and English reeled off spectacular closing sectionals after going back from a wide gate. Unfortunately the barrier draw hasn't helped her here either.
10. Happy Clapper
1. Kermadec
5. Bow Creek
13. Rudy
OTHER GROUP 1'S
The Sires Produce (Group 1, 1400m, 2-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Telperion for mine here. The G1 Golden Slipper trifecta all drew inside gates and raced in the first half of the field whereas this bloke (below) was back near last after drawing wide and then had to weave a passage through the field down the straight. He still finished right on their heels and can be closer in the run tomorrow from the better barrier. He gives every indication that 1400m will suit him even better and the Godolphin stable is in hot form.
Of the others Yankee Rose was outstanding (above) in the G1 Golden Slipper. How much that first-up run took out of her I'm not sure. Detective is still a maiden after four starts but has finished runner up to Capitalist, French Fern, Kiss And Make Up and Seaburge. If he goes in then obviously Seaburge has to be in the mix somewhere because he looked strong at the end of the G2 VRC Sires Produce. I think you have to forgive a horse one bad run especially if it's in a G1 Golden Slipper so Good Standing gets another chance. Omei Sword caught the eye last start and she'll love 1400m. So will Zamzam.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Telperion
11. Omei Sword
1. Telperion
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
8.Yankee Rose
3. Seaburge
2. Good Standing
5. Detective
8.Yankee Rose
3. Seaburge
2. Good Standing
5. Detective
The Australian Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Tarzino is hard to knock. He was pulling away from them at the end (below) of the G1 Rosehill Guineas and he's already won the G1 Victoria Derby in the Spring. He's improved with every run this time in and you could make an argument that he should also have won the G1 Australian Guineas. He's not going to be any flash price here but he just profiles so well for a race like this and I cannot tip against him.
Jameka was solid behind Tarzino last start (above) and did defeat him in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day last October. Tally was fifth in the same race but has gone to another level since with four straight wins this prep. His last start victory in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes was the win of a stayer. Vanbrugh was in the wrong part of the track when fourth (above) behind Tarzino and Jameka in the G1 Rosehill Guineas a fortnight ago. He did well to get that close given they walked in front. What's The Story was strong at the end of the G1 N.Z. Derby but the bunched finish worries me. Chris Waller has always had a wrap on Torgersen and his closing second in the G2 Tulloch Stakes last week was pleasing.
Locky's Selections
BEST
3. Tarzino
2. Vanbrugh
3. Tarzino
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
13. Jameka
4. Tally
6. Torgersen
8. What's The Story
13. Jameka
4. Tally
6. Torgersen
8. What's The Story
The T. J. Smith (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Exosphere gets a chance to atone here after two Flemington flops. Prior to that he'd won five of his last six with his most emphatic victory coming at his only start at this track and distance when he brained them (below) in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. He came from near last to win by three lengths going away under a hold and left future G1 winner Japonisme in his wake. I think he could be something special. Jockey James McDonald is flying.
For exotics I think the cream does tend to rise to the top in these w-f-a contests so the class horses Chautauqua and Terravista have to go in. The love affair continues for me with Fell Swoop despite a below par effort in the G1 Galaxy. Shiraz was enormous in the same race and English reeled off spectacular closing sectionals after going back from a wide gate. Unfortunately the barrier draw hasn't helped her here either.
Locky's Selections
BEST
14. Exosphere
1. Chautauqua
14. Exosphere
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
4. Terravista
13. Fell Swoop
15. English
9. Shiraz
4. Terravista
13. Fell Swoop
15. English
9. Shiraz
Good punting!
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